trends - definitions, distinctions and epic misjudgements by Matthias Schaefer
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trends - definitions, distinctions and epic misjudgements by Matthias Schaefer

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Trends: definition, types (meta trends, mega trends, consumer trends, fashion trends), wrong judgements (media use, mobility, electricity, medicine, politics, culture), conclusion

Trends: definition, types (meta trends, mega trends, consumer trends, fashion trends), wrong judgements (media use, mobility, electricity, medicine, politics, culture), conclusion

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trends - definitions, distinctions and epic misjudgements by Matthias Schaefer trends - definitions, distinctions and epic misjudgements by Matthias Schaefer Presentation Transcript

  • trends – definitions, distinctions... ... and epic misjudgements 1
  • trends – definitions A trend generally marks the measurable chronological sequence of a development into a particular direction increasing or decreasing in quantitative and/or qualitative aspects. In economic and socio-scientific context trends mean changes of the value system and/or behaviour patterns in a society (http://www.sdi-research.at/lexikon/trend.html). Trends describe upcoming changes in a society. This may affect e.g. common values, lifestyles or buying behaviours. A trend usually heads from the margins of a society to its inner circle. It is transferable onto other areas, otherwise it remains a single appearance (http://www.bjoerk.de/w_trend.html). A trend is nothing else than a change process. It happens in the most different areas of life – from economy towards politics to the world of consumers – and in the most diverse scales of penetration. Trends might occur as merely surface phenomenons or as deep, long-lasting movements (http://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/presse_faq.php). 2
  • trends – distinctions Meta trends are evolutionary driving forces describing fundamental issues. They refer to great changes leading to economic and social restructurings. They define the general environment in which everything else takes effect (http://www.seefelder.de/wirtschaft/serien/metatrends.htm). Examples: spirit of the age (e.g. modern age, post-modern age), religions Mega trends describe significant movements within single epoches that have great impact on economic and social systems. They last at least for 25-30 years, usually occur with global scale and affect each area of life. Examples: technological progress, urbanization, ageing society Consumer trends address changes that influence social behaviour as well as buying and consumer patterns. Significant consumer trends persist at least 10 years.* Examples: wellness orientation, retro style, no frills mentality Fashion trends are short-term movements within particular branches or associated with single products that often linger only a season.* Examples: upper lip beard, Golden Goal, Tamagotchi * http://www.bjoerk.de/w_trend.html 3
  • ...and epic misjudgements 4
  • trends – epic misjudgements Media use: „The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.“ (Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office, 1876) „Television won„t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.“ (Darryl Francis Zanuck, founder of 20th Century Fox, 1946) „There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.“ (Ken Olsen, founder and CEO of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977) „Email is a totally unsaleable product.“ (Ian Sharpe, founder of Sharp Associates Limited, 1979) „I predict the internet will soon get spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.“ (Robert Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet and founder of 3Com, 1995) 5
  • trends – epic misjudgements Mobility: „You would make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I pray you, excuse me, I have not the time to listen to such nonsene.“ (Napoleon Bonaparte, Emperor of the French, 1800) „Rail travel at high speeds is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia” (Dr. Dionysius Lardner, scientific writer and editor of “Cabinet Cyclopedia”, 1830) „The worldwide demand for cars won„t exceed one million – if only because of the shortage of available chauffeurs.“ (Gottlieb Daimler, inventor of the gas engine, 1901) „I do believe in the horse. The automobile is no more than a transitory phenomenon.“ (Wilhelm II., German Emperor and King of Prussia, 1905) „Space travel is utter bilge.“ (Richard van der Riet Wolley, British astronomer, 1956) 6
  • trends – epic misjudgements Energy: „Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? Youre crazy.” (Associates of Edwin Laurentine Drake, American pioneer of oil drilling, refusing to assist his project, 1859) „When the Paris Exhibition closes, electric light will close with it and no more be heard of.” (Sir Erasmus Wilson, British surgeon and dermatologist, 1878) „Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” (Thomas Edison, American businessman and inventor of the light bulb, 1889) „The energy produced by the breaking down of the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine.” (Ernest Rutherford, Noble Prize-winning British chemist and physicist, 1917) 7
  • trends – epic misjudgements Medicine: „Louis Pasteur„s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.“ (Pierre Pachet, French professor of physiology at the University of Toulouse, 1872) „X-rays will prove to be a hoax.“ (Lord William Thompson Kelvin, inventor of the gas thermometer and president of the British Royal Society, 1893) „For the majority of people, the use of tobacco has a beneficial effect, far better for you than taking tranquilizers.“ (Dr. Ian G. MacDonald, American surgeon, 1969) „We can close the book on infectious diseases.“ (William H. Stewart, Surgeon General of the United States, 1969) „That virus is a pussycat.“ (Dr. Peter Duesberg, German professor of molecular and cell biology at the University of Berkeley, California, on HIV, 1988) 8
  • trends – epic misjudgements Politics: „My good friends, this is the second time in our history that there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time.” (Neville Chamberlain, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, 1938) „Its silly talking about how many years we will have to spend in the jungles of Vietnam when we could pave the whole country and put parking stripes on it and still be home for Christmas.” (Ronald Reagan, President of the United States, 1965) „It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become Prime Minister.” (Margaret Thatcher, 10 years before her appointment, 1969) „Between the socialist German Democratic Republic and the imperialistic Federal Republic of Germany there is no unity and never will be. This is as sure and clear as the fact that the rain falls to the earth.” (Erich Honecker, Chairman of the State Council of the German Democratic Republic, 1981) 9
  • trends – epic misjudgements Culture: „Sentimental rubbish... show me one page that contains an idea.“ (The Odessa Courier on Leo Tolstoy„s „Anna Karenina“, 1877) „Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?“ (Harry Morris Warner, co-founder of Warner Bros., 1927) „I„m just glad it„s Clark Gable who„s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.“ (American actor Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading male role in „Gone with the wind“, 1939) „You better get secretarial work or get married.“ (Emmeline Snively, director of the Blue Book Modelling Modelling Agency, advising would-be model Marilyn Monroe, 1944) „We don„t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.“ (Decca Records Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962) 10
  • trends – conclusion Trends are generally hard to predict and to estimate accurately. The whole impact of a trend is nearly impossible to describe in advance due to endless ways of responding to it by companies, governmental bodies, pressure groups, customers etc. Also the development of a trend is seldom easy to foresee. According to American author Malcolm Gladwell („The Tipping Point“) trends seldom build steadily and slowly but go along like epidemics. For a while they tend to spread modestly but all of a sudden they run rampant. Nearly every trend causes an anti-trend. Usually this effect is based on individuals or groups of people who deny circumstances associated with a trend or the trend in general. Due to rapid changes and break ups of target groups in various branches a lot of markets become smaller, faster and more inconsistent => durations of trends decrease steadily. 11
  • aber aber Thank you Vielen Dank für Ihre for your attention! Aufmerksamkeit! Matthias Schaefer Executive BBA / PR consultant / Print editor contact +49 (151) 560 27 662 schaefer-matt@gmx.net 12