IMAGE via flickr: /papyrist
research /reboot Embracing the new reality for planning,
deploying and measuring consumer research.
- Tim Stock & Marie Lena Tupot, scenarioDNA
DRAFT - in progress version
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IMAGE via flickr: /orcoo
vision is the art of seeing
things invisible to others.
--Jonathan Swift
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IMAGE: Wired UK - NDNAD Infographic
We are faced with a seismic
shift in how markets function
and how people behave.
What we have is a new
network economy...
Yet, research (and marketing) continue
to follow old network rules.
where we are
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The industry knows that something
needs to change....
“Research has lost its ability to see
the big picture; to hear
the unexpected”
“Surveys are torture for respondents”
“Research needs to inspire;
storytelling is key”
from Transforming Consumer Research
Joel Rubinson, Chief Research Officer
The Advertising Research Foundation
where we are
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IMAGE: Wired UK - NDNAD Infographic
There is a disconnect from
research to goals.
We persist in proving
what already exists.
where we are
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power
we have become disconnected
from the existing flow of
natural human data.
perspective
our point of view fails to see
what our consumer sees.
influence
the competition for consumer
mindshare gets tougher daily.
IMAGE: Flickr missmareck
realigning the structure
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IMAGE: Wired UK - NDNAD Infographic
OLD NEW
power
perspective
influence
NETWORK RESEARCH NETWORK RESEARCH
surveillance sousveillance
demographics culture
a vs. b narrative
historical data real-time data
testing discovery
rating scales natural language
network shift
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IMAGE: Wired UK - NDNAD Infographic
A realignment must play out in every step of the research process.
1 2 3
INPUT MODALITY ANALYSIS
who we engage how we engage what we get
recruitment context integration
segmentation involvement insights
incentives discourse evolution
rebooting the process
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IMAGE: Flickr masback
We need to shift our perspective to
research models that radiate out
rather than radiate in.
A shift from surveillance to sousveillance.
realigning the input
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IMAGE: Flickr swamibu
Samples should be structured
to leverage flexibility to
evolve and grow with new
market opportunities.
Samples should be elastic.
realigning the input
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“Incentive has gone from
monetary to non-monetary
(attention, reputation, expression, etc).”
--Chris Anderson of Wired
Free elevates the role of the curator.
realigning the input
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we could expect larger mass
consumption when there
were less choices.
We aren’t selling Coke vs. Pepsi anymore.
realigning the modality
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IMAGE: Flickr /the-g-uk
innovative ideas will only come if the source and
integration of insights is effectively realigned to
meet the mandate of a new network economy.
We need to rethink data and how it integrates.
realigning the analysis
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IMAGE: Flickr Luis F Franco
Size
Technology
Numbers
3 lures currently propel research...
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IMAGE: flickr /clocksforseeing
“It was all very well to say `Drink me,'
but the wise little Alice was not going to
do that in a hurry.
-Alice in Wonderland
Lewis Carroll
1 The tyranny of big & small.
The lure of size.
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IMAGE: flickr /sshb
big seems to make so much
sense - the reality is that it is
an illusion.
larger samples are just that...
samples, and prone to over
interpretation.
1 The tyranny of big.
The lure of size.
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we become disconnected harder to develop one-size-
from the source of the data. fits-all insights for brands.
1 Large studies become harder to
integrate into the innovation cycle.
The lure of size.
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IMAGE: flickr /duesentrieb
using such large samples of decreasing value is wearing
out the markets we are trying to serve.
1
size can dilute and homogenize the
opportunity for new stories.
Strip mining for data works
against a sustainable research model.
The lure of size.
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IMAGE: flickr /gak
smaller samples effectively mapped and
filtered - flowing insights into the creative process.
incremental queries let
people think before they respond.
1 Encourage grazing over bingeing.
The lure of size.
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IMAGE: flickr /callumscott2
markets are not shaped by masses of
similarity - but rather by hubs in a
network that connects the story.
1 Rebooting big. Let size reflect impact, not numbers.
The lure of size.
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IMAGE: flickr /openupmyhead
Culture based segmentation offers
lines-of-sight of how information travels
through the new network.
Develop methods that plot
1
clusters in the network a
brand wishes to serve.
Leverage social networks.
The lure of size.
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we need to rethink the process
of recruiting and filtering
research samples.
explore more creative strategies
for more meaningful and
socially credible opt-ins.
1
IMAGE: flickr /thomashawk
Size attracts hand raisers.
The lure of size.
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IMAGE: flickr /publicdomainphotos
one-one strategies have equally
diluting tendencies.
the pursuit and management of individuals
fails to take into account the structure of
influences that shape those choices.
1 The tyranny of small.
The lure of size.
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bad habits learned from the dot
com era have us looking for the new By 2011, the digital universe will be
consumer switch to flip. 10 times the size it was in 2006.
IDC (International Data Corporation). The Diverse and Exploding Information Universe. 2008.
2
IMAGE: flickr /jasmincormier
- next victim - mobile.
Options for interaction overwhelm.
The lure of technology.
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Marketers generate spam in
their pursuit of lists.
Research must recognize the
power shift to the consumer
places their needs and in control
of interaction.
2 Our use of technology often erodes
our social credibility.
The lure of technology.
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we see so much we
forget to observe.
2
our use of technology should connect us
rather than distance us from this.
Don’t underestimate the power of observation.
The lure of technology.
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Flickr July 2007: 600 million images.
Flickr February 2008: 1.2 billion images (100
million images / month).
Facebook: 14,000,000 photo uploads daily.
2 Learning to leverage natural human data flows.
The lure of technology.
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New York Talk Exchange (NYTE) reveals
the complex dynamics of talk that exist between
New York and other cities around the globe.
"It is like showing how the heart of New
York pulsates in real time and how it
connects with the global network of cities,"
-- Carlo Ratti, director of the senseable city laboratory & associate professor of the
2
practice of urban technologies at MIT.
Mapping visualizations of naturally occurring data sets.
The lure of technology.
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IMAGE: yellowarrow.org/
We need to design research methods that
tap into the power of human
curiosity and the potent insights that
come from those interactions.
2 Leverage natural interaction and involvement.
The lure of technology.
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2 Augmented reality will open up data gathering as discovery.
The lure of technology.
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IMAGE: pillowfightclub.org/
we need to stop planning channel strategies -
start planning human behavior strategies.
2 - next victim - mobile.
Leverage behavior.
The lure of technology.
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Use technology to align a human-focused
modality that places insight generation at the
most potent moments.
2 Research must shift to more contextual models.
The lure of technology.
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research needs to invest by building
2
social credibility to draw insights
from this reality going forward.
All computing will be mobile.
The lure of technology.
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Urban mind-set
outweighs ethnicity in
today's youth This mind-set
is fueled by discovery,
expression, diversity
and connectivity. It
transcends race, geography
and economic status.
(source: Tru Pettigrew AdAge)
2 The impact of ethnicity is fading.
The lure of technology.
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Teens use their phones for (outside of chatting
and texting) sharing music files with their friends.
They do this using Bluetooth, since the service
is free and most phones now support it.
(source: Matthew Robson, Morgan Stanley intern
2 Leverage contextual recruitment.
The lure of technology.
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3 Numbers often make the problem
worse and distort what is really going on.
The lure of numbers.
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Americans claim they gave Barack Obama a
48 percent to 25 percent victory over John
McCain (he won by just seven points).
--CBS News/New York Times Poll
3 Numbers often promote wishful thinking.
The lure of numbers.
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the size of the problem was
compounded by overvaluing the
predictive algorithms of past
3
data.
Numbers can blind us to the
story unfolding in front of us.
The lure of numbers.
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new network quantitative
research will be driven by effective
use of qualitative methods to keep
the picture clear and
connected to real humans.
3
IMAGE: flickr /seeminglee
Numbers hide the humans.
The lure of numbers.
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Tropicana underestimated the deep
emotional bond loyal customers had with
their original packaging. Although they were only
a fraction of Tropicana consumers, the
volume of their outcries made them heard.
Change must radiate out from culture
networks culled from new research methods.
3
IMAGE: flickr /feuilllu
Understand the underlying humanity.
The lure of numbers.
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Thinkmap
research needs to tap into the
natural flow of language that
shapes social bonds and
reveals natural brand
opportunities.
3 Leverage natural language.
The lure of numbers.
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“In texting, what we are seeing, in a
small way, is language in evolution."
--David Crystal, author, Txtng: The Gr8 Db8
TweetPsych uses two linguistic analysis algorithms (RID
3
and LIWC) to build a psychological profile of a person
based on the content of their tweets.
Develop methods to pattern this language.
The lure of numbers.
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This is a draft of a presentation in progress.
Please feel free to offer any feedback.
Thank you.
email: timstock@scenariodna.com
twitter: timstock
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