Toward
a Net
Zero
World
Marc Porat

DALLAS

SHANGHAI

GUJARAT

DUBAI

DHARAVI (MUMBAI)

72
billion
people

RADICAL PROPOSAL
The built Target by 2020
environment
consumes
Net-zero building
half operations.
the world’s
energy
Near-zero building
materials.

Earth’s Surface Temperature
We are at 385 ppm +10.5 F
We will reach 450 6°C
ppm in 2035
Increasing at
+2.5 ppm
annually
+2.7 F
1.8°C
At 450 ppm CO2
“we will trigger
potentially
irreversible glacial
melt & sea level rise
out of humanity’s
control”
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

As CO2 increases…
CO2 Emissions CO2 Concentration
(Billion tons per year) (ppm in atmosphere)
120 1300
Carbon Dioxide 1200 Carbon Dioxide
100 Emissions 1100 Concentrations
1000
80 900
800
60 700
600
40 500
400
20 300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Temperature & sea-level rise…
Greenland 5m
Temperature Sea Level Rise
Change CO meters (m)
6 1
5 0.8
4 0.6
3
0.4
2
1 0.2
0 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

USA Energy Demand & Coal
140
+237
Quadrillion Btu (QBtu)
120 704 CFPPs
100 CFPPs now
80 +34%
34 QBtu
60
40
20
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Sources: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Agency & CalStar analysis

750,000 Toyota Prius
drivers save 2.35M MT of
CO2 per year
1 CFPP in 1 year
Sources: U.S. EPA, Toyota, CalStar analysis

Wal-Mart investing $500M in
7 years to reduce energy &
CO2 by 20%
1 CFPP in 1 month
Source: Architecture 2030

Home Depot planting
300,000 trees to absorb
CO2…
1 CFPP in 10 days
Source: Architecture 2030

Worldwide Energy Demand & Coal
700
+2320
Quadrillion Btu (QBtu)
600
3682 CFPPs
500 CFPPs now
400 +62%
300
276 QBtu
200
100
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Sources: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Agency & CalStar analysis

… threatening the ocean conveyor belt
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

… threatening the ocean conveyor belt
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

toast ? manna

Agreed: We Must Mitigate
CO2 emission Global temperature
(Billion tons CO2) change ( C)
80 7
72 BAU 6
64
56 5
48 Bush
4
40
32 3
24 2
16 1
8
0 0
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

$1+ Trillion/Year Needed
1800 +2 C
1600
Billions of Dollars
1400
1200 $1T
1000
+3 C
800
600
+4 C
400 +6 C
200
0
750 ppm 650 ppm 550 ppm 450 ppm
CO2
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

U.S. Energy Demand
51%
27%
22%
Built Environment Transport Industry
Source: EIA, CalStar analysis

The Built Environment
51% 55%
Total U.S. Total U.S.
energy CO2

U.S. Energy
Built Environment 51%
Residential Commercial
22% 17%
Operations 39%
Buildings Infra
9% 3% Materials 12%
Source: EIA, CalStar analysis

The Problem
Food & Light
Water 18%
19%
Heat &
Cool
38%
Other Appliances
12% 13%

USA Construction Cash
Build
new 2035
150Bn sf 400Bn sf
75% touched
2008 Demolish
305Bn sf 50Bn sf
Remodel
150Bn sf
$40T new
construction
+
$15T
renovate
U.S. Building Inventory

Green is the New Red, White & Blue
Alcan
Alcoa
American International Group
Boston Scientific Corporation
BP America
Caterpillar
Chrysler
ConocoPhillips
Deere & Company
Dow Chemical
Duke Energy
DuPont
Environmental Defense
Exelon Corporation
Ford Motor Company
Source: USCAP © Tom Friedman

CHINA
2020
New Urban
350 million
+
New Rural
250 million

Took 300 years to reach
300 billion square feet of
real estate.
Now consumes 51% of
USA energy Will add 300 billion square
feet of real estate in the next
20 years

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Peak Coal
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Scenario 1 – peak 2033 Scenario 2 – peak 2029
Scenario 3 – peak 2027
Source: ???

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Energy Deficit
7,000
BAU energy demand
6,000
DEFICIT
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Peak Coal
2030-2035
1,000
Coal
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil Hydro Wind Imports
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Solar, geothermal
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates; do not cite

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent
Hyper Optimism Scenarios
7,000
6,000
BAU energy demand
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand
Coal
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent
Hyper Optimism
7,000
6,000 China finds oil fields
size of Iran’s
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil
Coal
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Natural Gas
7,000
6,000 China finds gas fields
the size of Russia
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil
Coal Natural Gas
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Hydro Optimism
7,000
6,000 By 2025
80% of hydro potential
All major rivers dammed
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil Hydro
Coal Natural Gas
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Nuclear Optimism
7,000
Build 1-GW plants
6,000 9% growth/year
5 in 2030
100 in 2040
5,000 200 in 2050
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil Hydro
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Wind Optimism
7,000
6,000 China uses 100% of all land
With Class 3 wind
(33% of all land in China)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil Hydro Wind
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Solar Optimism
7,000
6,000 2050 solar + biomass
contribute more
than domestic oil
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil Hydro Wind
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Solar
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Geothermal & Biomass Optimism
7,000
6,000 China increase geothermal
and biomass by 20% per
year for 20 years
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil Hydro Wind Geothermal, biomass
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Solar
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Import Optimism
7,000
China increases
6,000 Ships, Ports, Rail
by 20% per year for 20 years
5,000 World prices stay stable
4,000
3,000
2,000 Coal
2030
1,000 peak
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand Oil Hydro Wind Geothermal, biomass
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Imports
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Harmonious Society
Danger Green
path path

China Energy Demand
37%
50%
9%
6%
Built Industry Transport
Environment Agr
Source: LBNL

CHINA Built Environment
37% 52%
total total
energy CO2

China Energy & Built Environment
Built Environment 37%
Residential Commercial
14% 9% Operations 23%
Buildings Infra
11% 3% Materials 14%
Source: EIA, CalStar analysis

Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent Net Zero Buildings
2030 deficit reduction by >33%
7,000
6,000
BAU energy demand SAVINGS
5,000 NZE
DEFICIT
4,000
All other sources
3,000
2,000 2030
peak
1,000 COAL
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Everything
in the built environment
can be reinvented

Eliminate 27B tons of CO2
Sources: Vattenfall, McKinsey & Co.

4B tons of CO2, negative cost
50 Cum Gt CO2 eliminated
€/t CO2
0.50 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
0
-50
Fridges / freezers
Retrofit facade
-100
Appliances
-150
Lighting A/C Water heating
Retrofit
Building floor/roof Heaters
-200 envelope
Washers/ dryers
Retrofit floor/ roof Windows
Other
New-build
insulation appliances
…all green building materials & technologies
Sources: McKinsey & Co.

Goal
Net-Zero Near-Zero
Energy Energy
Building Building
Operations Materials

Next Generation - first new drywall in 91 years.
88% less embodied energy
Much lower carbon footprint than gypsum drywall
Mold resistant face
Mold resistant core
Termite resistant
No mercury in production
Cradle-to-Cradle Platinum
9 LEED points

Industry standard are R2 to R3
50% to 33% energy leak
Serious Windows
R5 to R11
20% to 9% energy leak
In USA, 3-7 year payback

Cement
Portland cement, 8% of CO2
2.8 billion tons in 2008
$150B world market
No change since 1824

Automobiles ~ Cement
2.8 BT CO2 2.6 BT CO2
700M autos x 4T 2.8BT cement x 0.9T
~
58

CHINA
50% of
world
Cement
1.4 BT
in 2008
59

CalStar Products
85% less energy
90% less CO2

ZETA Communities
Zero Energy Technology & Architecture
Affordable Multifamily Housing
Net Zero Energy
Factory Built

Solar
External thermal
Daylighting
Shading Photovoltaics
High-performance Air recirculation
windows
Ultra Passive
insulation Thermal recycling cool & heat
Heat
Thermal mass Heat storage pump
62

ZETA v1.0

HELIOTRICITY

Electric Buildings
50-100 watts
per m2
North, South
East, West
2-5 year
payback

Evolution of Electric Buildings
Rooftop
Modules
Curtain Walls
Frosted, colored
Architectural designs
Attachments & networks
Windows & Glass Doors
Toyota PAPI Dream House
Transparent (tinted)
Micro-inverter in frame
66

It’s about you
(my net zero home)

The choices we make …
What if the built environment went net zero energy
What if transportation went net zero energy

Imagine if entire cities went net zero energy

Imagine if the world went net zero energy

CO2 Emissions
(Billion tons per year)
120
Carbon Dioxide
100 Emissions
80
60
40
20
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Thank You
Marc Porat
mporat@greencube.com