Toward
a Net
Zero
World

Marc Porat
DALLAS
SHANGHAI
GUJARAT
DUBAI
DHARAVI (MUMBAI)
72
billion
people
RADICAL PROPOSAL

The built      Target by 2020
environment
consumes
               Net-zero building
half           opera...
Earth’s Surface Temperature

We are at 385 ppm                                                                     +10.5 F...
As CO2 increases…

          CO2 Emissions                                       CO2 Concentration
          (Billion tons...
Temperature & sea-level rise…
                                                                      Greenland 5m
        T...
USA Energy Demand & Coal
                              140
                                                               ...
750,000 Toyota Prius
                                              drivers save 2.35M MT of
                              ...
Wal-Mart investing $500M in
                            7 years to reduce energy &
                            CO2 by 20%
...
Home Depot planting
                            300,000 trees to absorb
                            CO2…




             ...
Worldwide Energy Demand & Coal

                             700
                                                         ...
… threatening the ocean conveyor belt




Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
… threatening the ocean conveyor belt




Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
toast   ?   manna
Agreed: We Must Mitigate

         CO2 emission                                         Global temperature
         (Billi...
$1+ Trillion/Year Needed

                                1800                                     +2 C
                  ...
U.S. Energy Demand

                    51%

                                     27%

                                   ...
The Built Environment



  51%           55%
Total U.S.    Total U.S.
 energy          CO2
U.S. Energy

                                             Built Environment 51%

       Residential              Commercia...
The Problem


Food &                     Light
 Water                     18%
 19%

           Heat &
            Cool
   ...
USA Construction Cash
                               Build
                               new      2035
                  ...
Green is the New Red, White & Blue
                                                        Alcan
                         ...
CHINA
2020

New Urban
350 million

+

New Rural
250 million
Took 300 years to reach
300 billion square feet of
real estate.

Now consumes 51% of
USA energy                   Will add...
Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent                        Peak Coal
 7,000
 6,000

 5,000

 4,000

 3,000
 2,000

 1,000
 ...
Million Metric Ton
Coal Equivalent                         Energy Deficit
 7,000
                                         ...
Million Metric Ton
   Coal Equivalent
                                 Hyper Optimism Scenarios
 7,000
 6,000
            ...
Million Metric Ton
   Coal Equivalent
                                               Hyper Optimism
 7,000
 6,000         ...
Million Metric Ton
 Coal Equivalent                                     Natural Gas
 7,000
 6,000               China find...
Million Metric Ton
 Coal Equivalent                               Hydro Optimism
 7,000
 6,000                        By 2...
Million Metric Ton
 Coal Equivalent                             Nuclear Optimism
 7,000
                          Build 1-...
Million Metric Ton
 Coal Equivalent                                 Wind Optimism
 7,000
 6,000             China uses 100...
Million Metric Ton
 Coal Equivalent                                Solar Optimism
 7,000
 6,000                  2050 sola...
Million Metric Ton
 Coal Equivalent        Geothermal & Biomass Optimism
 7,000
 6,000              China increase geother...
Million Metric Ton
 Coal Equivalent                               Import Optimism
 7,000
                          China i...
Harmonious Society



Danger                        Green
path                           path
China Energy Demand


 37%
                50%
                             9%
                                         6%...
CHINA Built Environment

37%              52%
 total            total
energy            CO2
China Energy & Built Environment

                                             Built Environment 37%



         Residenti...
Million Metric Ton
   Coal Equivalent                       Net Zero Buildings
                                    2030 de...
Everything
in the built environment
       can be reinvented
Eliminate 27B tons of CO2




Sources: Vattenfall, McKinsey & Co.
4B tons of CO2, negative cost
    50                                                               Cum Gt CO2 eliminated
€...
Goal

 Net-Zero           Near-Zero

 Energy              Energy

 Building           Building

Operations          Materi...
Next Generation - first new drywall in 91 years.
88% less embodied energy
Much lower carbon footprint than gypsum drywall
...
Industry standard are R2 to R3
50% to 33% energy leak


Serious Windows
R5 to R11
20% to 9% energy leak



In USA, 3-7 yea...
Cement
Portland cement, 8% of CO2
2.8 billion tons in 2008
$150B world market

No change since 1824
Automobiles ~ Cement
 2.8 BT CO2              2.6 BT CO2
700M autos x 4T       2.8BT cement x 0.9T




                  ~...
CHINA

50% of
world
Cement


1.4 BT
in 2008



          59
CalStar Products
85% less energy
90% less CO2
ZETA Communities
  Zero Energy Technology & Architecture




Affordable Multifamily Housing
       Net Zero Energy
       ...
Solar
  External                                            thermal
                                Daylighting
  Shading ...
ZETA v1.0
HELIOTRICITY
Electric Buildings


50-100 watts
per m2


North, South
East, West


2-5 year
payback
Evolution of Electric Buildings

Rooftop
 Modules

Curtain Walls
 Frosted, colored
 Architectural designs
 Attachments & n...
It’s about you




             (my net zero home)
The choices we make …
What if the built environment went net zero energy




What if transportation went net zero energy
Imagine if entire cities went net zero energy
Imagine if the world went net zero energy
CO2 Emissions
      (Billion tons per year)
120
      Carbon Dioxide
100   Emissions

 80
 60
 40
 20
      2000 2020 2040...
Thank You




    Marc Porat
mporat@greencube.com
Toward a  Net Zero World
Toward a  Net Zero World
Toward a  Net Zero World
Toward a  Net Zero World
Toward a  Net Zero World
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Presentation on climate change and the impact the built environment has on global warming. The presentation looks at three companies - CalStar Cement, Zeta Communities, and Serious Materials - that a creating green products in the built environment. The presentation is given by Marc Porat, a leader in the green building field.

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  • While the situation in the U.S. is different – more cars, less cement per person - the impact on climate change of what we do is hugeWe have a lot to celebrate, and a big responsibility to execute
  • Toward a Net Zero World

    1. 1. Toward a Net Zero World Marc Porat
    2. 2. DALLAS
    3. 3. SHANGHAI
    4. 4. GUJARAT
    5. 5. DUBAI
    6. 6. DHARAVI (MUMBAI)
    7. 7. 72 billion people
    8. 8. RADICAL PROPOSAL The built Target by 2020 environment consumes Net-zero building half operations. the world’s energy Near-zero building materials.
    9. 9. Earth’s Surface Temperature We are at 385 ppm +10.5 F We will reach 450 6°C ppm in 2035 Increasing at +2.5 ppm annually +2.7 F 1.8°C At 450 ppm CO2 “we will trigger potentially irreversible glacial melt & sea level rise out of humanity’s control” Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    10. 10. As CO2 increases… CO2 Emissions CO2 Concentration (Billion tons per year) (ppm in atmosphere) 120 1300 Carbon Dioxide 1200 Carbon Dioxide 100 Emissions 1100 Concentrations 1000 80 900 800 60 700 600 40 500 400 20 300 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    11. 11. Temperature & sea-level rise… Greenland 5m Temperature Sea Level Rise Change CO meters (m) 6 1 5 0.8 4 0.6 3 0.4 2 1 0.2 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    12. 12. USA Energy Demand & Coal 140 +237 Quadrillion Btu (QBtu) 120 704 CFPPs 100 CFPPs now 80 +34% 34 QBtu 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Sources: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Agency & CalStar analysis
    13. 13. 750,000 Toyota Prius drivers save 2.35M MT of CO2 per year 1 CFPP in 1 year Sources: U.S. EPA, Toyota, CalStar analysis
    14. 14. Wal-Mart investing $500M in 7 years to reduce energy & CO2 by 20% 1 CFPP in 1 month Source: Architecture 2030
    15. 15. Home Depot planting 300,000 trees to absorb CO2… 1 CFPP in 10 days Source: Architecture 2030
    16. 16. Worldwide Energy Demand & Coal 700 +2320 Quadrillion Btu (QBtu) 600 3682 CFPPs 500 CFPPs now 400 +62% 300 276 QBtu 200 100 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Sources: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Agency & CalStar analysis
    17. 17. … threatening the ocean conveyor belt Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    18. 18. … threatening the ocean conveyor belt Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    19. 19. toast ? manna
    20. 20. Agreed: We Must Mitigate CO2 emission Global temperature (Billion tons CO2) change ( C) 80 7 72 BAU 6 64 56 5 48 Bush 4 40 32 3 24 2 16 1 8 0 0 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    21. 21. $1+ Trillion/Year Needed 1800 +2 C 1600 Billions of Dollars 1400 1200 $1T 1000 +3 C 800 600 +4 C 400 +6 C 200 0 750 ppm 650 ppm 550 ppm 450 ppm CO2 Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    22. 22. U.S. Energy Demand 51% 27% 22% Built Environment Transport Industry Source: EIA, CalStar analysis
    23. 23. The Built Environment 51% 55% Total U.S. Total U.S. energy CO2
    24. 24. U.S. Energy Built Environment 51% Residential Commercial 22% 17% Operations 39% Buildings Infra 9% 3% Materials 12% Source: EIA, CalStar analysis
    25. 25. The Problem Food & Light Water 18% 19% Heat & Cool 38% Other Appliances 12% 13%
    26. 26. USA Construction Cash Build new 2035 150Bn sf 400Bn sf 75% touched 2008 Demolish 305Bn sf 50Bn sf Remodel 150Bn sf $40T new construction + $15T renovate U.S. Building Inventory
    27. 27. Green is the New Red, White & Blue Alcan Alcoa American International Group Boston Scientific Corporation BP America Caterpillar Chrysler ConocoPhillips Deere & Company Dow Chemical Duke Energy DuPont Environmental Defense Exelon Corporation Ford Motor Company Source: USCAP © Tom Friedman
    28. 28. CHINA 2020 New Urban 350 million + New Rural 250 million
    29. 29. Took 300 years to reach 300 billion square feet of real estate. Now consumes 51% of USA energy Will add 300 billion square feet of real estate in the next 20 years
    30. 30. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Peak Coal 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Scenario 1 – peak 2033 Scenario 2 – peak 2029 Scenario 3 – peak 2027 Source: ???
    31. 31. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Energy Deficit 7,000 BAU energy demand 6,000 DEFICIT 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Peak Coal 2030-2035 1,000 Coal 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Hydro Wind Imports Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Solar, geothermal Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates; do not cite
    32. 32. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Hyper Optimism Scenarios 7,000 6,000 BAU energy demand 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Coal Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    33. 33. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Hyper Optimism 7,000 6,000 China finds oil fields size of Iran’s 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Coal Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    34. 34. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Natural Gas 7,000 6,000 China finds gas fields the size of Russia 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Coal Natural Gas Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    35. 35. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Hydro Optimism 7,000 6,000 By 2025 80% of hydro potential All major rivers dammed 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Hydro Coal Natural Gas Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    36. 36. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Nuclear Optimism 7,000 Build 1-GW plants 6,000 9% growth/year 5 in 2030 100 in 2040 5,000 200 in 2050 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Hydro Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    37. 37. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Wind Optimism 7,000 6,000 China uses 100% of all land With Class 3 wind (33% of all land in China) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Hydro Wind Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    38. 38. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Solar Optimism 7,000 6,000 2050 solar + biomass contribute more than domestic oil 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Hydro Wind Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    39. 39. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Geothermal & Biomass Optimism 7,000 6,000 China increase geothermal and biomass by 20% per year for 20 years 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Hydro Wind Geothermal, biomass Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    40. 40. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Import Optimism 7,000 China increases 6,000 Ships, Ports, Rail by 20% per year for 20 years 5,000 World prices stay stable 4,000 3,000 2,000 Coal 2030 1,000 peak 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Oil Hydro Wind Geothermal, biomass Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Imports Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    41. 41. Harmonious Society Danger Green path path
    42. 42. China Energy Demand 37% 50% 9% 6% Built Industry Transport Environment Agr Source: LBNL
    43. 43. CHINA Built Environment 37% 52% total total energy CO2
    44. 44. China Energy & Built Environment Built Environment 37% Residential Commercial 14% 9% Operations 23% Buildings Infra 11% 3% Materials 14% Source: EIA, CalStar analysis
    45. 45. Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent Net Zero Buildings 2030 deficit reduction by >33% 7,000 6,000 BAU energy demand SAVINGS 5,000 NZE DEFICIT 4,000 All other sources 3,000 2,000 2030 peak 1,000 COAL 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
    46. 46. Everything in the built environment can be reinvented
    47. 47. Eliminate 27B tons of CO2 Sources: Vattenfall, McKinsey & Co.
    48. 48. 4B tons of CO2, negative cost 50 Cum Gt CO2 eliminated €/t CO2 0.50 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0 -50 Fridges / freezers Retrofit facade -100 Appliances -150 Lighting A/C Water heating Retrofit Building floor/roof Heaters -200 envelope Washers/ dryers Retrofit floor/ roof Windows Other New-build insulation appliances …all green building materials & technologies Sources: McKinsey & Co.
    49. 49. Goal Net-Zero Near-Zero Energy Energy Building Building Operations Materials
    50. 50. Next Generation - first new drywall in 91 years. 88% less embodied energy Much lower carbon footprint than gypsum drywall Mold resistant face Mold resistant core Termite resistant No mercury in production Cradle-to-Cradle Platinum 9 LEED points
    51. 51. Industry standard are R2 to R3 50% to 33% energy leak Serious Windows R5 to R11 20% to 9% energy leak In USA, 3-7 year payback
    52. 52. Cement Portland cement, 8% of CO2 2.8 billion tons in 2008 $150B world market No change since 1824
    53. 53. Automobiles ~ Cement 2.8 BT CO2 2.6 BT CO2 700M autos x 4T 2.8BT cement x 0.9T ~ 58
    54. 54. CHINA 50% of world Cement 1.4 BT in 2008 59
    55. 55. CalStar Products 85% less energy 90% less CO2
    56. 56. ZETA Communities Zero Energy Technology & Architecture Affordable Multifamily Housing Net Zero Energy Factory Built
    57. 57. Solar External thermal Daylighting Shading Photovoltaics High-performance Air recirculation windows Ultra Passive insulation Thermal recycling cool & heat Heat Thermal mass Heat storage pump 62
    58. 58. ZETA v1.0
    59. 59. HELIOTRICITY
    60. 60. Electric Buildings 50-100 watts per m2 North, South East, West 2-5 year payback
    61. 61. Evolution of Electric Buildings Rooftop Modules Curtain Walls Frosted, colored Architectural designs Attachments & networks Windows & Glass Doors Toyota PAPI Dream House Transparent (tinted) Micro-inverter in frame 66
    62. 62. It’s about you (my net zero home)
    63. 63. The choices we make … What if the built environment went net zero energy What if transportation went net zero energy
    64. 64. Imagine if entire cities went net zero energy
    65. 65. Imagine if the world went net zero energy
    66. 66. CO2 Emissions (Billion tons per year) 120 Carbon Dioxide 100 Emissions 80 60 40 20 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
    67. 67. Thank You Marc Porat mporat@greencube.com

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