Mark Jacobson

A Plan to Power the World for All Purposes With Wind, Water and the SunMark Z. Jacobson LASERSAtmosphere/Energy Program San Francisco, CaliforniaStanford University July 9, 2012

What’s the Problem? Why Act Quickly?Air pollution kills 2.5-3 million people worldwide each year.Arctic sea ice will disappear within 30 years. Global temperatures are rising faster than during deglaciation at end of last ice age.Increasing population and energy demand increase air pollution, global warming, and energy prices over time.

Norilsk, Russiahttp://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Sukinda, Indiahttp://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Linfen, Chinahttp://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Lung of LA TeenageNonsmoker in 1970s;Lungs of People inMost Big Cities of theWorld TodaySCAQMD/CARB

Mean Global Temperature Anomalies WARMEST YEARS 1.  2010 2.  2005 3.  2007 4.  1998 5.  2009 6.  2011 7.  2006 8.  2003 9.  2002 10.  2004 NASA GISS, 2012

1900-2011http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution,Energy Security – Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)ELECTRIC POWER VEHICLESRecommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell5. PV 6. Wave7. HydroelectricityNot RecommendedNuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanolCoal-CCS Soy, algae biodieselNatural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas

Why Not Nuclear?9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refininguranium and using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years topermit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with2-5 years for a wind or solar farmRisk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted)Risk of nuclear weapons proliferationUnresolved waste issues

Why Not Clean Coal(With Carbon Capture)?50 times more CO2 emissions per kWh than wind150 times more air pollutant emissions per kWh than windRequires 25% more energy, thus 25% more coal mining andtransport and traditional pollution than normal coal.

Why Not Ethanol?Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollutionas gasolineCorn E85: 90-200% of CO2 emissions of gasolineCellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2 emissions of gasolineWind-BEVs: <1% of CO2 emissions as gasolineEnormous land use and water requirements

Why Not Natural Gas?50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh than windHydrofracking causes land and water supply degradationMethane from natural gas a main contributor to Arctic ice loss.Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollutionmortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a coolingagent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gasthan coal. Coal causes higher mortality.

Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power www.mywindpowersystem.com

Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Power www.gizmag.com www.inhabitat.com myecoproject.org www.sir-ray.com

Concentrated Solar Power, PV PowerTorresol Gemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage,Matthew Wright, Beyond Zerowww.solarthermalmagazine.comi.treehugger.com

Electric/Hydrogen Fuel Cell VehiclesTesla Roadster all electric Nissan Leaf all electric Tesla Model S all electricweeble.netwww.blogcdn.comwww.greenlaunches.comwww.ecofriend.comwww.blogcdn.com Hydrogen fuel cell bus Electric truck Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid bus

Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power Ecofriend.org Ec.europa.euZmships.euElectric shipupload.wikimedia.org

Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-HeaterMidlandpower.com Conservpros.com Adaptivebuilders.com Heat pump water heater

End Use Power Demand For All Purposes WORLD U.S.2010 12.5 TW 2.50 TW2030 with current fuels 16.9 TW 2.83 TW2030 converting all energyTo wind-water-sun (WWS)and electricty/H2 11.5 TW 1.78 TW (32% reduction) (37% reduction)

Number of Plants or Devices to Power WorldTECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2030 NUMBER5-MW wind turbines 50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place)0.75-MW wave devices 1 720,000100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place)1300-MW hydro plants 4 900 (70% in place)1-MW tidal turbines 1 490,0003-kW Roof PV systems 6 1.7 billion300-MW Solar PV plants 14 40,000300-MW CSP plants 20 49,000 100%

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Wind-BEV"Footprint 1-2.8 km2" Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US" Nuclear-BEV" 0.05-0.062%" Cellulosic E85" Footprint 33%   4.7-35.4% of US " of total; the rest is buffer" Corn E85" 9.8-17.6% of US" Geoth BEV" 0.006-0.008%" Solar PV-BEV" 0.077-0.18%"

World Wind Speeds at 100m 90" 10" 8" 0" 6" 4" -90" 2" -180" -90" 0" 90" 180" All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-80 TW" = 6-7 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW"

World Surface Solar Surface downward solar radiation (W/m2) (global avg: 193; land: 183) 90 250 200 0 150 100 -90 -180 -90 0 90 180 All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW" = 30 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW"

End Use Power Demand For All PurposesIn these tests, California electricity was obtained from WWS for 99.8% of allhours in 2005, 2006. Can oversize WWS capacity, use demand-response,forecast weather, use more CSP to reduce natural gas backup more. Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/

Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 2008-2010 2020-2030Wind onshore 4-7 ≤4Wind offshore 10-17 8-13Wave >>11 4-11Geothermal 4-7 4-7Hydroelectric 4 4CSP 10-15 7-8Solar PV 9-13 5-7Tidal >>11 5-7Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5.3)=12.3 8-9.6(+5.7)=13.7-15.3 Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)

Summary of Plan to Power World with WWSConverting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 will reduceglobal power demand by ~32%à Eliminates 2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/yearà Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS ,vs. fossil-fuel direct+externality cost ~13.5¢/kWhAdditional long-distance transmission (1200-2000 km) ~1¢/kWh

Summary of Plan to Power World with WWSRequires only 0.4% more of world land for footprint; 0.6% for spacing(vs. 40% of world land for cropland and pasture)Multiple methods of addressing WWS variability.Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed.Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics.Mark Z. Jacobson papers on this topicwww.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html

Mark Jacobson

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