This article was downloaded by: [85.86.30.72]On: 11 June 2013, At: 14:29Publisher: RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in Engl...
whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connectionwith or arising out of the use of this material...
ELECTION REPORTBasque Regional Elections 2012:The Return of Nationalism underthe Influence of the Economic CrisisBRAULIO GO...
two-thirds of the new regional parliament. Nevertheless, the nationalist agenda isexpected to be overshadowed by the urgen...
The moderate PNV has been the hegemonic political party in the Basque Countrysince the transition to democracy. It is the ...
nationalist left—the abertzale left—was allowed to enter the political arena onceagain. In 2011, the constitutional court ...
manifesto. According to Regional Manifestos Project data (Go´mez et al., n.d., www.regionalmanifestosproject.com), almost ...
non-nationalist Lehendakari, is the first head of the Basque government who was notre-elected for the second term. These re...
its part as well. In fact, Ezker Anitza did not win any seats at all, even though it had8700 more voters (2.7%) than UPyD....
DiscussionAccording to surveys,3the economy has remained far and away the most importantissue for Basque voters during the...
explore the influence of the economy on this election. But the electoral results alreadygive us some idea. The economic dow...
weight (importance) voters give to the right–left dimension is greater than thatgiven to the nationalism issue in the Basq...
Rico, G. (2012), The 2010 Regional Election in Catalonia: A Multilevel Account in an Age of EconomicCrisis, South European...
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Basque Regional Elections 2012: The Return of Nationalism under the Influence of the Economic Crisis

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The 2012 Basque regional election, held on 25 March, resulted in a new
government of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). The incumbent Socialist Party suffered a
dramatic reduction in electoral support, obtaining just 19% of the vote, far below the 30%
they had attained in 2009. This was the first election held in the Basque Country without the
looming shadow of ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna; “Basque Homeland and Freedom”).
However, the influence of the economy was stronger than the nationalism issue in this
election, as we show in this electoral report.

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Transcript of "Basque Regional Elections 2012: The Return of Nationalism under the Influence of the Economic Crisis"

  1. 1. This article was downloaded by: [85.86.30.72]On: 11 June 2013, At: 14:29Publisher: RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH,UKRegional & Federal StudiesPublication details, including instructions for authorsand subscription information:http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/frfs20Basque Regional Elections 2012:The Return of Nationalism underthe Influence of the EconomicCrisisBraulio Gómez Fortesa& Laura Cabeza PérezaaUniversidad de Deusto , Avda de las Universidades24, Bilbao , SpainPublished online: 10 Jun 2013.To cite this article: Braulio Gómez Fortes & Laura Cabeza Pérez (2013): Basque RegionalElections 2012: The Return of Nationalism under the Influence of the Economic Crisis,Regional & Federal Studies, DOI:10.1080/13597566.2013.798650To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2013.798650PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLEFull terms and conditions of use: http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditionsThis article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes.Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expresslyforbidden.The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make anyrepresentation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up todate. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae, and drug doses should beindependently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liablefor any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand, or costs or damages
  2. 2. whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connectionwith or arising out of the use of this material.Downloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  3. 3. ELECTION REPORTBasque Regional Elections 2012:The Return of Nationalism underthe Influence of the Economic CrisisBRAULIO GO´ MEZ FORTES & LAURA CABEZA PE´REZUniversidad de Deusto, Avda de las Universidades 24, Bilbao, SpainABSTRACT The 2012 Basque regional election, held on 25 March, resulted in a newgovernment of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). The incumbent Socialist Party suffered adramatic reduction in electoral support, obtaining just 19% of the vote, far below the 30%they had attained in 2009. This was the first election held in the Basque Country without thelooming shadow of ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna; “Basque Homeland and Freedom”).However, the influence of the economy was stronger than the nationalism issue in thiselection, as we show in this electoral report.KEY WORDS: Regional elections, nationalism, economic voting, Basque CountryIntroductionElections for the Basque Parliament were held in the Basque Country on 21 October2012, five months earlier than scheduled. The regional incumbent Socialist Party(PSE) suffered a dramatic fall in electoral support, obtaining just 19% of the vote,far below the 30.7% they achieved in 2009. The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV)returned to power after a short one-term parenthesis of Socialist rule. Following theelections, a minority government was formed by PNV, headed by In˜aki Urkullu as Pre-sident (Lehendakari) of the Cabinet. This was the first election held in the BasqueCountry without the looming shadow of ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna; "BasqueHomeland and Freedom”). The Basque terrorist organization had declared a permanentceasefire and cessation of armed activity one year before the elections.The so-called izquierda abertzale (pro-independence Basque left) was allowed torun in this election under the name of EH-Bildu1and became the second largest partyof the new Basque parliament. The nationalist parties, PNV and EH-Bildu, representCorrespondence Address: Braulio Go´mez Fortes, Universidad de Deusto, Avda de las Universidades 24,Bilbao, Spain. Email: brauliogfortes@gmail.com# 2013 Taylor & FrancisRegional and Federal Studies, 2013http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2013.798650Downloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  4. 4. two-thirds of the new regional parliament. Nevertheless, the nationalist agenda isexpected to be overshadowed by the urgency to combat unemployment during thenext term.This electoral report is structured as follows. In the first section we briefly presentthe main features of the Basque political institutions and the context in which the 2012Basque parliamentary election took place. In the second section we describe thecampaign strategies of the main parties. The third section is devoted to the electionresults. In the final section we explain the loss of popular support for the incumbentparty with the help of economic voting theory.Political and Economic ContextThe Basque Country is one of the wealthiest regions of Spain and Europe, with a GDPper capita of E32 288 compared to the E23 271 of Spain; in contrast the Basqueinhabitants account for around only 6% of the Spanish population. As a result of thedecentralization process set in motion in 1978 at the beginning of the Spanish transitionto democracy, the Basque Country is granted full fiscal autonomy. The Spanish Con-stitution protects the historical fiscal rights of the Basque territories (‘fueros’), whichmeans that the Basque Country, as well as Navarra, collect taxes themselves and nego-tiate with the central government how much of their tax revenue will be allotted to theSpanish state. The Basque regional government is responsible for the provision of mostservices closest to the citizens. More than half of regional public spending is devoted toeducation and health services. In addition, the Basque regional government has signifi-cant powers in areas such as urban and local government, public safety, social services,infrastructure, transport, agriculture, and the environment.The regional government is free to determine its own electoral calendar. TheBasque Parliament (Eusko Legebiltzarra/Parlamento Vasco) has 75 members,elected by province through the proportional d’Hondt formula. The representativescome from a closed party-list, with a 3% threshold by province. The three provinceselect the same number of seats in the Regional Parliament (25 each one) eventhough they are very different in terms of population (Biscay 1 150 000 inhabitants;Gipuzkoa 710 000; and A´ lava 320 000). Unlike the systems used in other Spanishregions, the Basque Country does not use the population criterion. This implies thata seat ‘costs’ more votes in Biscay and Gipuzkoa than in the least populated A´ lava.In other words, a vote does not have the same value in all the Basque provinces.The party system in the Basque Country differs from the party system in the rest ofSpain. The Basque Country party system has been characterized by the presence of notone, but several nationalist parties. These parties have had a majority of the votes in theBasque parliamentary elections. The two main state-wide parties together, the left-leaning PSE (the Basque affiliate of the PSOE, Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party)and the right-wing PP (Popular Party), have not been able to attract more than 50%of the votes in any Basque election. In fact, the state-wide centre-right PP have hada substantially smaller electoral support in the Basque Country than in other parts ofSpain. This is mainly due to the conservatives’ historical position against decentraliza-tion, and also, to a lesser extent, because the PNV is an alternative for those voters whodefend a right-wing agenda.2 B. Go´mez Fortes & L. Cabeza Pe´rezDownloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  5. 5. The moderate PNV has been the hegemonic political party in the Basque Countrysince the transition to democracy. It is the largest and oldest Basque nationalist party.The PNV opposes political violence. It won all Basque Parliamentary elections and ledevery regional government from 1980 until 2009, headed by Carlos Garaicoechea(1980–85), Jose´ Antonio Ardanza (1985–99) and Juan Jose´ Ibarretxe (1999–2009).In the 2009 election, although the PNV garnered the most votes, the main state-wideparties PSE and PP received a majority of seats in the Basque Parliament, surpassingthe number of seats obtained by the nationalist forces. This success of the non-nationalist parties was possible for three reasons. First, for the first time in Basqueregional elections, there was no abertzale—or left-wing separatists—list. Just onemonth before the election, the various abertzale parties were banned by theSupreme Court of Spain from standing in the election, accused of having links withthe terrorist organization ETA. The abertzales called on their supporters to castblank ballots. Secondly, the PNV underwent a gradual weakening of its leader, JuanJose´ Ibarretxe, due to the rejection by the Spanish Parliament of his proposal,widely known as the “Ibarretxe Plan”, to reform the Statute of Autonomy (the legaldocument organizing the political system of the Basque Country) in order to givethe Basques greater autonomy. The PNV internal division between a separatist wingand those autonomists who wanted to remain Spanish has also been influential.Lastly, the socialists were stronger than ever after winning the national electionsone year earlier and, consequently, the PSE won a record high 30.7% of the votesand 25 seats. As a result, PSE leader Patxi Lo´pez formed the first non-nationalistgovernment with the support of the Spanish conservative party.The socialist Lehendakari, Patxi Lo´pez, had been quite unpopular since the start ofhis term in office. The primary cause of his unpopularity was his agreement with theright-wing party, the PP, despite promising during the election campaign that thePSE would not sign such a deal. Most socialist voters rejected this contra naturepact. In Euskadi, the PP bears tons of negative baggage, not least the perceptionshared by most voters that it is the anti-Basque and ultra-centralist party. The PPended the governing pact with the Socialist Party in May 2012 and Patxi Lo´pez wasnot able to pass a budget in the Basque regional parliament. The decision to callearly elections was inevitable.The second cause of unpopularity was the economic crises. The management of theregional economy by the socialists was widely criticized even though the Basqueeconomy itself was doing quite well compared to other regions in Spain. The unem-ployment rate was 15.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012, the second lowest in thecountry (and 10% below the national rate), but had doubled since the start of theterm (Figure 1). Moreover, the region’s debt had grown exponentially since 2009.The debt/GDP ratio stood at 2.2% when Patxi Lo´pez took office in 2009, and itgrew to 10.2% in 2012. This debt load, however, is still inferior to the nationalaverage of 13.5%.The 2012 regional elections were the Basque Country’s first electoral experiencewithout the fear of violence. However, the bad economic situation overshadowedthe end of ETA’s terrorist activity. The Basque terrorist organization announced defini-tive cessation of armed activity in October 2011. The absence of ETA meant thesewere the first truly free elections for decades. With the end of violence, the BasqueElection Report: Basque Regional Elections 2012 3Downloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  6. 6. nationalist left—the abertzale left—was allowed to enter the political arena onceagain. In 2011, the constitutional court allowed the abertzales to participate in theMay local elections and in the November general elections. The coalitions of the abert-zale left (Bildu in May, Amaiur in November) won 26% and 24%, respectively, in thetwo elections in 2011. When ETA was still active, their political arm had never reached20% of votes. EH Bildu, the new coalition of left-wing radical separatists is now theregion’s second political force and a principal rival to the PNV, whose position onsovereignty is more moderate.The Election CampaignThis election was marked by both the first anniversary since ETA had announced a"definitive cessation of its armed activity" and the highest unemployment figuresever. Not surprisingly, the economic crisis and the national status of the BasqueCountry were virtually the only two topics of debate between the candidates duringthe campaign. Although the Basque elections were held in the light of the renewedand growing independence movement in Catalonia, the new fight between theCatalan government and the central government had no relevant effects on the electoralcampaign.PNV not only presented a new candidate for President of the Basque government,but also a new discourse, away from the secessionist line this party used to exploitwhen Juan Jose´ Ibarretxe was its leader. This time, In˜igo Urkullu sought the shortestway to attract voters, pushing identity discourses into the background. He did sowith the help of his proposals that were related to the issue that mattered the mostfor citizens: the economic crisis. Proof of this can be seen in the PNV electoralFigure 1. Unemployment rates in the Basque Country and Spain, 2008–12.Source: National Statistics Institute, EPA (Economically Active Population Survey).4 B. Go´mez Fortes & L. Cabeza Pe´rezDownloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  7. 7. manifesto. According to Regional Manifestos Project data (Go´mez et al., n.d., www.regionalmanifestosproject.com), almost one-third of all the sentences of PNV’s 262-page long manifesto were devoted to economic issues (32%), while the policies onnation-building and self-government took up just 11% of the space.Under the leadership of this woman, a Basque nationalist author and university pro-fessor, the pro-independence Basque left-wing coalition ran a campaign focused on therecognition of the Basque Country’s right to self-determination and defiance of theeconomic austerity programme that the PP defends. The data from the Regional Mani-festos Project reveal that EH Bildu was the only party which had not given top priorityto the measures taken to overcome the economic situation. Its emphasis on economicissues (13% of the manifesto) lags behind its real priority: the construction, mainten-ance and development of Basque national identity and independence proposals (20%).Main non-nationalist parties (PP, PSE and UPyD) emphasized the risks of autonomyand the benefits of closer ties with the rest of Spain. This was the centrepiece of AntonioBasagoiti’s discourse. A quantitative content analysis of the PP candidate’s Twitteraccount made by the Regional Manifestos Project shows that one-third of all his tweets(36%) were about anti-nationalism. With slogans, such as "If you don’t go, they win",the PP was trying to feed the fear of Basque nationalism and the old ghosts of terrorism.This strategy was evident from the very beginning, since Basagoiti said: "There are onlytwo ballots, independence and the PP" in the election campaign opening. Unemploymentand the crisis were not a sensible electoral asset for the PP in its attack on Patxi Lopez’sgovernment. For most of the Basques, the national government is the main culprit for theeconomic situation, and the PP was the ruling party at that level.On the opposite side, PSE was unable to put the end of ETA violence and the peaceprocess at the centre of the debate, although both the Lehendakari Patxi Lo´pez and thePSOE’s Secretary General, Alfredo Pe´rez Rubalcaba, insisted on attributing thissuccess to his party. As a part of their defensive strategy, the Basque socialists alsotried to brag about their economic performance since the situation in the BasqueCountry was not as bad as in the rest of Spain. Nevertheless this strategy wasdoomed to fail. According to the pre-electoral survey carried out by the CIS (Centrefor Sociological Research) one month before the election, just 7% of Basques qualifiedas good the work of the Basque government in the economic field. From the citizens’point of view, the party most capable of dealing with unemployment and the economiccrisis was the PNV (24%) and not the PSE (less than 8%).Finally, UPyD presented themselves to the voters as the "only constitutionalistalternative", the only party capable of standing up to the threat of "rupture of coexis-tence" posed by the nationalist parties with the connivance of PP and PSE. Meanwhile,Ezker Anitza, a United Left affiliate, ran a campaign against austerity and in favour ofthe rights of workers and the poor, while avoiding engagement with the Basque right todecide.Election Results and Government FormationThe incumbent Socialist Party suffered a dramatic reduction in electoral support,obtaining just 19% of the vote, far below the 30.7% they had attained in 2009. Conse-quently, its parliamentary representation fell from 25 to 16 seats. Patxi Lo´pez, the firstElection Report: Basque Regional Elections 2012 5Downloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  8. 8. non-nationalist Lehendakari, is the first head of the Basque government who was notre-elected for the second term. These results demonstrate the decline in support for thesocialists in Spain in recent years. We have to bear in mind that since the 2011 localelections the PSOE has done nothing but lost voters at all levels (local, regional andnational elections).As we can see in Table 1, no single party won a majority in this election. Not sur-prisingly, as with all the Basque elections in the last three decades, the Basque Nation-alist Party came out top in the poll. PNV obtained 34.6% of the vote and 27 seats. Thismeans a loss of three seats compared with the last election. Nevertheless, this time itwas enough to return to power in the region where this party has ruled for 26 of the past32 years.But the striking thing about this election is undoubtedly the astonishing results ofEH Bildu. The coalition, dominated by members of ETA’s political wing, obtained thehighest ever electoral support for the radical left-wing separatists. EH Bildu receivedthe second largest number of votes (25%) in the Basque Country and became theleading party in Gipuzkoa, with 32.2% of the vote. They currently control 21 seatsin the 75-seat chamber. This result goes far beyond the previous electoral ceiling ofany other brand of left-wing nationalism in the Basque Country.The Popular Party, with 11.7% of votes, lost three seats, ending with a total of 10.The reason for this decline is probably related to the discontent over the austeritymeasures implemented by the same party at the national government. The PP lostalmost 16 000 votes compared to the 2009 Basque election and, notably, more than80 000 votes compared with the 2011 national election.Finally, the Spanish-centralist party Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), with1.9% of the vote, held on to its solitary seat. Nevertheless, Ezker Anitza and EzkerBatua-Berdeak—the present and former affiliates in the Basque Country of theSpanish United Left (IU, IzquierdaUnida)—failed to win representation. Fragmenta-tion has taken its toll on the "non-nationalist left”, leaving out both formations after18 years of uninterrupted presence in the Basque parliament. But the undemocraticnature of the voting system in the Basque Country, where a vote can have fourtimes more value in the less populated province, as we explained above, has playedTable 1. Summary of the 2012 Basque Parliament election resultsaIn 2009: Aralar + EuskoAlkartasunaSource: Electoral results, Department of Home Affairs, Justice and Public Administration, BasqueGovernment.6 B. Go´mez Fortes & L. Cabeza Pe´rezDownloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  9. 9. its part as well. In fact, Ezker Anitza did not win any seats at all, even though it had8700 more voters (2.7%) than UPyD. Its leader, Mikel Arana, resigned from hispost the day after the election.The overall result marks a major step forward for Basque nationalism as a whole.PNV and EH Bildu spread their electoral victory over almost all the Basque municipa-lities (134 and 102, respectively), except just 14 municipalities where PSE and PPretain their primacy. Together, the nationalists control almost two-thirds of the newparliament (48 seats out of 75). The votes for nationalist parties have always exceededthose obtained by non-nationalist parties in all the regional elections held in the BasqueCountry since 1980 (Figure 2). In 2012 the difference reached almost 250,000 votes infavour of the nationalist parties, which is the highest figure in the last two decades.Following the elections, there were three options for the PNV: to form a minoritygovernment, or to reach an agreement with either EH Bildu (together they sum 48 outof 75 seats) or the PSE (43 seats) to form a majority government. According to thepost-electoral survey, a minority government was the favourite alternative for 23%of the Basques, an alliance between the two nationalist parties was the best optionfor a quarter of the population (26%), while 22% of voters favoured an alliancebetween the PNV and the socialists.2Finally, PNV chose to form a minority govern-ment. In˜igo Urkullu was sworn in as Lehendakari on 13 December.. His politicalproject will have three priorities: overcoming the economic crisis, consolidation ofthe peace process and an increase in self-government, seeking to push forward anew political status for the Basque Country within the European Union. The new gov-ernment will have to look for different allies in order to make progress in each of theseissues during the term. Urkullu has pledged to make the economy his first priority.Figure 2. Difference between the vote for nationalist and non-nationalist parties in the Basqueelections, 1980–2012. Vote for nationalist parties (PNV, EH Bildu, Amaiur, Batasuna, HB, EH,EHAK, Aralar and invalid votes in 2009); vote for non-nationalist parties (PSE, PP, EBB,EzkerAnitza, UPyD, UCD/CDS and UA).Source: Cabinet of Sociological Prospective, Basque Government.Election Report: Basque Regional Elections 2012 7Downloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  10. 10. DiscussionAccording to surveys,3the economy has remained far and away the most importantissue for Basque voters during the last four years. The perception of the economic situ-ation changed dramatically during the mandate of the Lehendakari Patxi Lo´pez. Thenumber of citizens who consider the regional economic situation to be bad or verybad had increased from 38.5% in 2007 to 60.8% in late 2012. The economy and unem-ployment were the main problems in the region for almost all Basques (85%). Themajority of voters (62.2%) rejected the regional government’s handling of economicissues.4Previous studies have reported that economic variables influence popular supportfor subnational incumbents in regional elections (‘regional economic voting’)(Svoboda, 1995; Anderson, 2008; Niemi et al., 1995; Riba and Diaz, 2002; Rico,2011; Sanchez-Cuenca and Barreiro, 2011; Queralt, 2012; Go´mez Fortes et al.,2013). These studies have demonstrated the existence of a positive relationshipbetween the economic situation and support for regional governments. At the timeof writing this electoral report, there is no post-electoral data available to fullyFigure 3. Difference in popular support for the Regional Incumbent (PSE) between 2009 and2012 and unemployment rate by municipality.Source: own elaboration based on data from the official election results (Department of HomeAffairs, Justice and Public Administration, Basque Government) and the Spanish PublicEmployment Service.8 B. Go´mez Fortes & L. Cabeza Pe´rezDownloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  11. 11. explore the influence of the economy on this election. But the electoral results alreadygive us some idea. The economic downturn may well have taken its toll on the regionalincumbent. The PSE has lost support in 2012 in virtually all the Basques cities, townsor villages. It has lost votes in 9 out of ten municipalities. But, as shown in Figure 3, thePSE has lost more votes precisely in the municipalities with the highest unemploymentrate. In other words, the more unemployed a town has, the more votes the incumbenthas lost.The PSE’s losses were somewhat greater in its traditional stronghold of the BilbaoMetropolitan area, where it lost more than ten percentage points. In fact, the PSE’s col-lapse was such that the PNV was placed ahead of the PSE in some of the party’s tra-ditional bases, including Bilbao’s working-class Left Bank (Barakaldo, Sestao,Basauri)—although, in these cases, it was due to the PSE’s collapse since 2009rather than any PNV inroads. The PSE lost votes to other parties, as well as a goodnumber of its voters to abstention (the primary explanation for the small decrease inturnout).The influence of the economy was stronger than the nationalism issue in thiselection. Previous studies based on spatial proximity models have shown that theFigure 4. Ideological and nationalist scale.Source: CIS, Pre-electoral survey 2959.Election Report: Basque Regional Elections 2012 9Downloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  12. 12. weight (importance) voters give to the right–left dimension is greater than thatgiven to the nationalism issue in the Basque Country (Fernandez Albertos, 2002;La Calle, 2005). The gap between PSE and PP on the ideological spectrum(Figure 4) is too wide for left-wing voters and even more so when they are sufferingthe worst economic situation of recent decades with the PP as the main politicalpower in central government. The pact between the two parties was never under-stood by PSE voters. In fact, 77.1 % of voters feel there is a great distancebetween them and the PP.5These voters are much closer to the PNV on the left–right axis than the PP (Figure 4), and the moderate nationalist party is the favouritepartner for the majority of socialist voters.The results of this regional election reflect the political pluralism shown by theBasque electorate. Moreover, without the threat of terrorism and with a delicateeconomic situation, the minority PNV government will look to reach agreementswith all political forces. The PSE will surely support the current regional incumbentwith the aim to make the electorate forget its pact with the right-wing PP as soon aspossible.Notes1Euskal Herria Bildu (EH Bildu, Basque Country Gather) is a left nationalist coalition officially launchedon 10 June 2012 by Eusko Alkartasuna, Aralar, Alternatiba and independents individuals from theBasque leftist nationalist environment, most of whom had been members of the outlawed Batasuna.2Post-electoral survey, Cabinet of Sociological Prospective, Basque Government.3http://www.ehu.es/euskobarometro/ (accessed 28 April 2013).4Data from the 2012 Basque Regional election pre-electoral survey conducted by the Centro de Inves-tigaciones Sociolo´gicas (Estudio Nº2959).5Pre-electoral survey (CIS 2959)ReferencesAnderson, C. D. (2008), Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance: A Comparative Individual-LevelAnalysis, American Journal of Political Science, Vol.50, No.2, pp.449–463.Fernandez Albertos, J. F. (2002), Votar en Dos Dimensiones: El Peso del Nacionalismo y la Ideologı´a en elComportamiento Electoral Vasco, 1993–2001, Revista Espan˜ola de Ciencia Polı´tica, Vol.6,pp.153–181.Go´mez, B., Alonso, S. and Cabeza, L. (n.d), Regional Manifestos Project [CSO2009-11241]. Available atwww.regionalmanifestosproject.com (accessed 28 April 2013). Government of Spain: R&D&i NationalPlan, Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.Go´mez Fortes, B., Cabeza, L. and Palacios, I. (2013), The 2012 Regional Elections in Andalusia. A DoublePunishment for Regional and National Incumbents. South European Society & Politics, forthcoming.La Calle, L. (2005), Cuando la proximidad deja de ser importante: modelos espaciales y voto en la polı´ticavasca (1994–2001) [Spatial Models and Voting in the Basque Country, 1994–2001], Revista Espan˜olade Ciencia Polı´tica, Vol.12, pp.21–52.Niemi, R. G., Stanley, H. W. and Vogel R. J. (1995), State economies and state taxes: Do voters holdgovernors accountable? American Journal of Political Science, Vol.39, No.4, pp. 936–957.Pallare´s, F. and Retortillo, A. (2006), The Basque Autonomous Elections 2005: Towards a New Scenario forPeace? Regional and Federal Studies, Vol.16, No.4, pp.465–479.Queralt, D. (2012), Economic Voting in Multi-tiered Polities, Electoral Studies, Vol.31, No.1, pp.107–119.Riba, C. and Dı´az, A. (2002), Economic Voting in Subnational Government—Catalonian Evidence,H. Dorussen and M. Taylor, Economic Voting. New York: Routledge, pp.173–199.10 B. Go´mez Fortes & L. Cabeza Pe´rezDownloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013
  13. 13. Rico, G. (2012), The 2010 Regional Election in Catalonia: A Multilevel Account in an Age of EconomicCrisis, South European Society & Politics, Vol.17, No.2, pp.217–238.Sa´nchez-Cuenca, I. and Barreiro, B. (2012), In the Whirlwind of the Economic Crisis: Local Regional Elec-tions in Spain May 2011, South European Society and Politics, Vol.17, No.2, pp.281–294.Svoboda, C. J. (1995), Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: 1982 and 1986, Political ResearchQuarterly, Vol.48, pp.135–150.Election Report: Basque Regional Elections 2012 11Downloadedby[85.86.30.72]at14:2911June2013

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