Accenture Mobility MWC 2012 - Bubble over barcelona - lars kamp

Mobile World Congress 2012

Always On.
Always Connected.
Being everywhere can help your
business go anywhere.

Mobility Trends that Will
Define the Next Decade
Lars Kamp

Thank you for organizing #bobmwc!

Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 2

Today’s topics

Platform Proliferation

Cloud Cornucopia

App Avalanche

Commodity Computing

Architecture Approaches

Fast Forward


Platform Proliferation
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More and more mobile devices
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Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 4

The Digital World in 2012: Growth since 2007
7.0 Billion Global Population
5.9 Billion Mobile Subscriptions 6%
76%
4.6 Billion Mobile Subscribers
48%

2.5 Billion Internet Users
84%

1.2 Billion Mobile
Internet Users
354%

Source: United Nations, ITU, Gartner, Portio Research, Accenture analysis.

Smartphones: A two-horse race with potential for 3rd
Share of Global Mobile Installed Base of Smartphone OS

60%
AndroidTM
50%

40%

Apple
30%

20%

10% RIM
Windows® Phone
0% Others (including Symbian®,
Web OS, Palm® OS)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Source: Gartner.

Android iterating 2x per year …
One major dessert every six months

History of Android

Oct 2008 Apr 2009
July 2005 Android Market Android
Android acquired announced. SDK
by Google “G1” released

2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sept 2003
Android
incorporated. … C D E F G H I J …
Nov 2007
OHA founded. April Sept Oct May Dec Mar Oct H1
“Astro” & “Bender” 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012
“Android” platform
unveiled. Cupcake Donut Éclair FroYo GiBr HoCo IC JB
v1.5 v1.6 v2.0 v2.2 v2.3 v3.0 v4.0 v5.0?

Source: Google; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

… with rapid ecosystem adoption
One OEM and SemiCo at a time

Android
Release
C D E F G H I J
April Sept Oct May Dec Mar Oct H1
2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012
Cupcake Donut Éclair FroYo GiBr HoCo IceCrm JB
v1.5 v1.6 v2.0 v2.2 v2.3 v3.0 v4.0 v5.0?

“Hero”
Device ?

HTC Samsung Motorola HTC Samsung Motorola Samsung
?
Dream Behold II Droid Nexus One Nexus S Xoom Galaxy Nexus

Chip

Qualcomm Qualcomm TI OMAP Qualcomm Intrinsity NVIDIA TI OMAP
MSM7201A MSM7201A 3430 QSD8250 S5PC110 Tegra 2 250 4460 ?
528MHz 528MHz 600 MHz 998MHz 1,000MHz 1,000MHz 1,200MHz

Source: pdadb.net; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

Google’s mobile business: towards 1m activations / day
Monthly AndroidTM Device Activations 2011, Thousands per day

½ million 700
activations 675
650
per day 625
600
550
500

400
375
350
325
300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2011 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011

Source: Androinica, Engadget, Google, IDC, TechCrunch, Accenture analysis.

Platform proliferation
Explosion of OS versions and device flavors
Motorola Xoom Sony Tablet
Google Nexus S
Samsung
Google Samsung
Galaxy Tab 10.1
Nexus One Sidekick 4G
Motorola
Droid X Motorola
Bionic
HTC Motorola
Legend Droid X2 Samsung
HTC EVO HTC Incredible S
Galaxy Nexus

HTC Droid ASUS
Incredible LG Optimus Eee Slider Motorola
Motorola Droid Droid RAZR
Milestone HTC Thunderbolt
HTC Aria
Kindle Fire
HTC Droid Nook Color
HTC Desire Samsung Slate
Samsung
Galaxy SII Kindle 4
Google TV
Samsung Galaxy
Tab 7
Android 1.1 Donut Froyo Honeycomb

Android 1.0 Cupcake Eclair Gingerbread Ice Cream Sandwich

iPad iPad 2 iPad 3

iPhone 1 iPhone 3G iPhone 3GS iPhone 4G iPhone 4S
Apple Apple Apple Apple Apple
iOS 1.0 iOS 2.0 iOS 3.0 iOS 4.0 iOS 5.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Jeff Haynie / Appcelerator.

Cloud Cornucopia
Abundance of computing power in the cloud
nonecaeptate exped.



Burden Water Wheel: 370 kW
1851 - to Burden Iron Works Plant in Troy (NY), 60ft away

Source; Smithsonian, Nicholas Carr.

Adam’s Plant: 37,000 kW
1895 - to Buffalo (NY), 22 miles away


Adam’s Square
Times Plant
1,250 hp / 932 kW
to Buffalo (NY)
22 miles away


”In addition to making raw
computer power available in
a convenient economical
form, a computer utility
would be concerned with
almost any service or
function which could in some
way be related to the
processing, storage,
collection and distribution of
information.”
The Challenge of the
Computer Utility, 1966
Source: Centre for Computing History.
Copyright © © 2012 Accenture.rights reserved.
Copyright 2012 Accenture All All rights reserved. 15

Enterprise Data Center: 10s of CPUs

Source: Flickr.

Facebook Data Center: 100,000s of CPUs

Source: Facebook

Multi-$B investments into data centers
Massive, “off-deck” geo-distributed computing power
Facebook Yahoo Google

Prineville, OR USA Lockport , NY USA The Dalles, OR USA

Apple Amazon Microsoft

Maiden, NC USA Morrow, OR USA Dublin, Ireland
Source: Data Center Knowledge; Accenture analysis, 2012.

Google’s major Capex in Cloud build-out
Google Inc. Quarterly Capex, Q1 2004 – Q2 2011, Million USD

1,000 951
917
890
900
842
800 757745
699 698 680
700 678

597
600 575
553
492 476
500 452

400 367 368
345
293
300 246 263
221 239
186
200
142157 139
86 96 78
100 59

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Google SEC filings, Accenture analysis.

Exponential growth in the cloud
Amazon.com S3 pricing vs. objects stored, 2007-2012
Quarterly
Amazon S3 pricing Number of objects in S3 CAGR
($/GB/Month) (Billions) ’07-’12
$0.16 Peak request: 1,400
500,000+ per second
$0.15 1,200 24%
$0.14
1,000
$0.13
800
$0.12
600
$0.11
400
$0.10

$0.09 $0.09 200 -2.4%
14B
$0.08 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Amazon AWS Blog, University of Washington; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

App Avalanche
Appification of everything
nonecaeptate exped.



The App Store economy
Catalog size Apple AppStoreSM & Android Market, by quarter

~725K

~420K

Apple Android
AppStoreSM Market
740 600

Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12

Source: Apple, Google, Xyologic; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

“Appification” of people, things, machines, real estate
Software replacing everything

People Things Machines Real Estate
Cabulous Mercedes-Benz mbrace Chase Mobile Cherry

replacing replacing replacing replacing your
Dispatchers Keys ATMs Corner Car Wash

Source: iPhone screenshots; Accenture analysis, 2012.

Mobile applications + Cloud = Consumerization
Software disrupting incumbent business models across the board

Transport Office IT Finance Real Estate
RelayRides Breezy Square LiquidSpace

Cars Printers Payments Office space

Source: iPhone screenshots; Accenture analysis, 2012.

eBay: Transformation to a mobility company
Accelerating volume growth for eBay’s mobile apps.

eBay Marketplaces GMV (US$B) PayPal TPV (US$B)
per fiscal quarter, ‘09-11 per fiscal quarter, ‘09-11
CAGR CAGR
’09-11 ’09-11

$14.2 $15.0 $16.5 = 100% 8% $21.4 $26.9 $33.4 = 100% 25%
$.2 $.6 $0.04 $0.2 $1.6 Mobile 517%
$2 Mobile 233%

$14.1 $14.4 $21.3 $26.6 $31.8 Desktop 22%
$14.5 Desktop 2%

Q4'09 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q4'09 Q4'10 Q4'11
Mobile Share Mobile Share
1.4% 4% 13% <1% <1% 5%
of GMV of TPV

Source: eBay SEC filings & earning calls; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.
GMV = “Gross Merchandise Value”; TPV = “Net Total Payment Volume”.

Commodity Computing
Shift in enterprise IT consumption to “XaaS”
nonecaeptate exped.



Cost of computing coming down exponentially
US Asset Price Index, 1969 – 2010
Normalized, 2005 = 100

105

Computers and
104 Peripheral Equipment

103

Transportation
Equipment
102
Other Equipment

Industrial Equipment
101
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: BEA, Andrew McAfee; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

Increasing enterprise IT consumption
US IT Investment, 1969 – 2010
Annual Investment Nominal Annual
per Employee ($) Investment ($B)
$3,500 $350

$3,000 $300

$2,500 $250

$2,000 $200

$1,500 $150

$1,000 $100

$500 $50

$0 $0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: BEA, Andrew McAfee; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

Shift from HW to SW-driven consumption
Hardware spend moving into XaaS
SW : HW Ratio

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

SW : HW Ratio

3.5
“Wintel”
3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SW : HW Ratio

3.5
“XaaS”
3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SW : HW Ratio

3.5
“XaaS”
3
1990
Tim Berners-Lee
2.5 WorldWideWeb
1995
YHOO, AMZN, NSCP: 2007
2 1990
Commercial Web 1st iPhone
ARPANET
decommissioned
1.5

1

0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Architecture Approaches
Paradigm shift in the way IT is built
nonecaeptate exped.



The 3 pillars driving mobility & cloud computing
Operating principles of market leaders

Open Source
“We regularly contribute software source code under open source licenses
and have made other technology we developed available under other open
licenses, and we include open source software in our products.”
Facebook S-1 Filing

Open Standards
“Though iOS is proprietary, we strongly believe that all standards pertaining to
the web should be open. Rather than use Flash, Apple has adopted HTML5,
CSS and JavaScript – all open standards.”
Steve Jobs

APIs
“All interfaces must be designed from the ground up to be externalizable. The
team must plan and design to expose the interface to developers in the
outside world. No exceptions. Anyone who doesn’t do this will be fired.”
Jeff Bezos


Open Source: Evolution of Android’s code base
From 3.6M to 17.1M lines in the code base in 3.5 years

18

16

14

12

10 Lines of code
8

6

4
Comments
2
Blanks
-
Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12

Source: Ohloh.net.

“HTML5” – fastest growing keyword in job postings
Job trends from Indeed.com

1. HTML5
2. MongoDB
3. iOS
4. Android
5. Mobile app
6. Puppet
7. Hadoop
8. jQuery
9. PaaS
10. Social Media

Source: Indeed Job Trends.

APIs – the new currency
“Programmable Web”, number of published APIs per month, 2006-2011

Cumulative
5,500
5,000+ 5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Programmable Web; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

Putting it all together: shift in “hot skills”
Something’s cookin’…

“API”

“HTML5”
“iOS”

“Android”

Source: Indeed Job Trends.

Shift in architecture paradigms
From vertical silos to …
The Past The New Reality
3-Tier Centralized App-centric
Web Architecture Distributed Cloud Model

Presentation

Logic

Data

Source: Jeff Haynie / Appcelerator, Accenture analysis..

Shift in architecture paradigms
Running a building vs. running a city
The Past The New Reality
Running a Building Running a City
Stove Pipes Platforms

Presentation

Logic

Data

Source: Getty Images.

Fast Forward
Apps & connected devices transforming our lives and society


From appification to task-centric instrumentation
Channels, triggers, actions

ifttt Twine


ifttt uptake during 2011
Early experiment in instrumentation

Source: ifttt blog.

Decreasing share of labor in the age of connected devices
Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Share (Index 2005 = 100)
112

110
110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94
94

92
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed; Andrew McAfee, Accenture analysis. Shaded areas represent recessions.

Mobile World Congress 2012

Always On.
Always Connected.
Being everywhere can help your
business go anywhere.

The Accenture CIO
Mobility Survey 2012
Executive Summary

Rights to trademarks referenced herein, other than Accenture
trademarks, belong to their respective owners. We disclaim
proprietary interest in the marks and names of others.

Accenture Mobility MWC 2012 - Bubble over barcelona - lars kamp

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