Accenture Mobility MWC 2012 - Bubble over barcelona - lars kamp

Mobile World Congress 2012Always On.Always Connected.Being everywhere can help yourbusiness go anywhere.Mobility Trends that WillDefine the Next DecadeLars Kamp

Platform ProliferationClick to edit Master text stylesMore and more mobile devicesBody Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left.Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid. Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 4

The Digital World in 2012: Growth since 2007 7.0 Billion Global Population 5.9 Billion Mobile Subscriptions 6% 76% 4.6 Billion Mobile Subscribers 48% 2.5 Billion Internet Users 84% 1.2 Billion Mobile Internet Users 354%Source: United Nations, ITU, Gartner, Portio Research, Accenture analysis.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 5

Smartphones: A two-horse race with potential for 3rdShare of Global Mobile Installed Base of Smartphone OS 60% AndroidTM 50% 40% Apple 30% 20% 10% RIM Windows® Phone 0% Others (including Symbian®, Web OS, Palm® OS) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012ESource: Gartner.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 6

Android iterating 2x per year … One major dessert every six monthsHistory of Android Oct 2008 Apr 2009 July 2005 Android Market Android Android acquired announced. SDK by Google “G1” released 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Sept 2003Androidincorporated. … C D E F G H I J … Nov 2007 OHA founded. April Sept Oct May Dec Mar Oct H1“Astro” & “Bender” 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 “Android” platform unveiled. Cupcake Donut Éclair FroYo GiBr HoCo IC JB v1.5 v1.6 v2.0 v2.2 v2.3 v3.0 v4.0 v5.0? Source: Google; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012. Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 7

… with rapid ecosystem adoption One OEM and SemiCo at a timeAndroidRelease C D E F G H I J April Sept Oct May Dec Mar Oct H1 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 Cupcake Donut Éclair FroYo GiBr HoCo IceCrm JB v1.5 v1.6 v2.0 v2.2 v2.3 v3.0 v4.0 v5.0?“Hero”Device ? HTC Samsung Motorola HTC Samsung Motorola Samsung ? Dream Behold II Droid Nexus One Nexus S Xoom Galaxy NexusChip Qualcomm Qualcomm TI OMAP Qualcomm Intrinsity NVIDIA TI OMAP MSM7201A MSM7201A 3430 QSD8250 S5PC110 Tegra 2 250 4460 ? 528MHz 528MHz 600 MHz 998MHz 1,000MHz 1,000MHz 1,200MHz Source: pdadb.net; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012. Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 8

Google’s mobile business: towards 1m activations / dayMonthly AndroidTM Device Activations 2011, Thousands per day ½ million 700 activations 675 650 per day 625 600 550 500 400 375 350 325 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2011 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011Source: Androinica, Engadget, Google, IDC, TechCrunch, Accenture analysis.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 9

Platform proliferationExplosion of OS versions and device flavors Motorola Xoom Sony Tablet Google Nexus S Samsung Google Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 Nexus One Sidekick 4G Motorola Droid X Motorola Bionic HTC Motorola Legend Droid X2 Samsung HTC EVO HTC Incredible S Galaxy Nexus HTC Droid ASUS Incredible LG Optimus Eee Slider Motorola Motorola Droid Droid RAZR Milestone HTC Thunderbolt HTC Aria Kindle Fire HTC Droid Nook Color HTC Desire Samsung Slate Samsung Galaxy SII Kindle 4 Google TV Samsung Galaxy Tab 7 Android 1.1 Donut Froyo Honeycomb Android 1.0 Cupcake Eclair Gingerbread Ice Cream Sandwich iPad iPad 2 iPad 3 iPhone 1 iPhone 3G iPhone 3GS iPhone 4G iPhone 4S Apple Apple Apple Apple Apple iOS 1.0 iOS 2.0 iOS 3.0 iOS 4.0 iOS 5.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Jeff Haynie / Appcelerator.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 10

Cloud CornucopiaClick to edit Master text stylesAbundance of computing power in the cloudBody Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left.Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid. Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 11

”In addition to making raw computer power available in a convenient economical form, a computer utility would be concerned with almost any service or function which could in some way be related to the processing, storage, collection and distribution of information.” The Challenge of the Computer Utility, 1966Source: Centre for Computing History.Copyright © © 2012 Accenture.rights reserved. Copyright 2012 Accenture All All rights reserved. 15

Multi-$B investments into data centersMassive, “off-deck” geo-distributed computing powerFacebook Yahoo Google Prineville, OR USA Lockport , NY USA The Dalles, OR USA Apple Amazon Microsoft Maiden, NC USA Morrow, OR USA Dublin, IrelandSource: Data Center Knowledge; Accenture analysis, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 18

Google’s major Capex in Cloud build-outGoogle Inc. Quarterly Capex, Q1 2004 – Q2 2011, Million USD1,000 951 917 890 900 842 800 757745 699 698 680 700 678 597 600 575 553 492 476 500 452 400 367 368 345 293 300 246 263 221 239 186 200 142157 139 86 96 78 100 59 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: Google SEC filings, Accenture analysis.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 19

Exponential growth in the cloudAmazon.com S3 pricing vs. objects stored, 2007-2012 QuarterlyAmazon S3 pricing Number of objects in S3 CAGR($/GB/Month) (Billions) ’07-’12$0.16 Peak request: 1,400 500,000+ per second$0.15 1,200 24%$0.14 1,000$0.13 800$0.12 600$0.11 400$0.10$0.09 $0.09 200 -2.4% 14B$0.08 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Amazon AWS Blog, University of Washington; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 20

App AvalancheClick to edit Master text stylesAppification of everythingBody Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left.Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid. Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 21

The App Store economy Catalog size Apple AppStoreSM & Android Market, by quarter ~725K ~420K Apple AndroidAppStoreSM Market 740 600 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Source: Apple, Google, Xyologic; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012. Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 22

“Appification” of people, things, machines, real estateSoftware replacing everythingPeople Things Machines Real EstateCabulous Mercedes-Benz mbrace Chase Mobile Cherryreplacing replacing replacing replacing yourDispatchers Keys ATMs Corner Car WashSource: iPhone screenshots; Accenture analysis, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 23

Mobile applications + Cloud = ConsumerizationSoftware disrupting incumbent business models across the boardTransport Office IT Finance Real EstateRelayRides Breezy Square LiquidSpaceCars Printers Payments Office spaceSource: iPhone screenshots; Accenture analysis, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 24

eBay: Transformation to a mobility companyAccelerating volume growth for eBay’s mobile apps.eBay Marketplaces GMV (US$B) PayPal TPV (US$B)per fiscal quarter, ‘09-11 per fiscal quarter, ‘09-11 CAGR CAGR ’09-11 ’09-11 $14.2 $15.0 $16.5 = 100% 8% $21.4 $26.9 $33.4 = 100% 25% $.2 $.6 $0.04 $0.2 $1.6 Mobile 517% $2 Mobile 233% $14.1 $14.4 $21.3 $26.6 $31.8 Desktop 22% $14.5 Desktop 2% Q409 Q410 Q411 Q409 Q410 Q411 Mobile Share Mobile Share 1.4% 4% 13% <1% <1% 5% of GMV of TPVSource: eBay SEC filings & earning calls; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.GMV = “Gross Merchandise Value”; TPV = “Net Total Payment Volume”.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 25

Commodity ComputingClick to edit Master text stylesShift in enterprise IT consumption to “XaaS”Body Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left.Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid. Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 26

Cost of computing coming down exponentiallyUS Asset Price Index, 1969 – 2010Normalized, 2005 = 100105 Computers and104 Peripheral Equipment103 Transportation Equipment102 Other Equipment Industrial Equipment101 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: BEA, Andrew McAfee; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 27

Increasing enterprise IT consumptionUS IT Investment, 1969 – 2010Annual Investment Nominal Annualper Employee ($) Investment ($B)$3,500 $350$3,000 $300$2,500 $250$2,000 $200$1,500 $150$1,000 $100 $500 $50 $0 $0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: BEA, Andrew McAfee; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 28

Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaSUS IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio3.5 32.5 21.5 10.5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 29

Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaSUS IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio3.5 “Wintel” 32.5 21.5 10.5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 30

Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaSUS IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio3.5 “XaaS” 32.5 21.5 10.5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 31

Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaSUS IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio3.5 “XaaS” 3 1990 Tim Berners-Lee2.5 WorldWideWeb 1995 YHOO, AMZN, NSCP: 2007 2 1990 Commercial Web 1st iPhone ARPANET decommissioned1.5 10.5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 32

Architecture ApproachesClick to edit Master text stylesParadigm shift in the way IT is builtBody Copy goes here. Typeface is Arial. Type size is 22/24. Flush left.Dias abora quate consequam is accatur, con ne nullecaboremnonecaeptate exped.• Second level is 16/18 iducimint lanim que doluptassi venisvel im as non ne laceptatur.• Quasit volorem porrore nis aut porem.• Nisquist quibis rerspis ex eicend.• Enditiorum evendelic tenisquistis aliquid. Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 33

The 3 pillars driving mobility & cloud computingOperating principles of market leaders Open Source “We regularly contribute software source code under open source licenses and have made other technology we developed available under other open licenses, and we include open source software in our products.” Facebook S-1 Filing Open Standards “Though iOS is proprietary, we strongly believe that all standards pertaining to the web should be open. Rather than use Flash, Apple has adopted HTML5, CSS and JavaScript – all open standards.” Steve Jobs APIs “All interfaces must be designed from the ground up to be externalizable. The team must plan and design to expose the interface to developers in the outside world. No exceptions. Anyone who doesn’t do this will be fired.” Jeff BezosCopyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 34

Open Source: Evolution of Android’s code baseFrom 3.6M to 17.1M lines in the code base in 3.5 years1816141210 Lines of code 8 6 4 Comments 2 Blanks - Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12Source: Ohloh.net.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 35

“HTML5” – fastest growing keyword in job postingsJob trends from Indeed.com 1. HTML5 2. MongoDB 3. iOS 4. Android 5. Mobile app 6. Puppet 7. Hadoop 8. jQuery 9. PaaS 10. Social MediaSource: Indeed Job Trends.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 36

APIs – the new currency“Programmable Web”, number of published APIs per month, 2006-2011 Cumulative 5,500 5,000+ 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Programmable Web; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 37

Shift in architecture paradigmsFrom vertical silos to … The Past The New Reality 3-Tier Centralized App-centric Web Architecture Distributed Cloud Model Presentation Logic DataSource: Jeff Haynie / Appcelerator, Accenture analysis..Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 39

Shift in architecture paradigmsRunning a building vs. running a city The Past The New Reality Running a Building Running a City Stove Pipes Platforms Presentation Logic DataSource: Getty Images.Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 40

Decreasing share of labor in the age of connected devices Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Share (Index 2005 = 100)112 110110108106104102100989694 9492 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed; Andrew McAfee, Accenture analysis. Shaded areas represent recessions. Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 44

Mobile World Congress 2012Always On.Always Connected.Being everywhere can help yourbusiness go anywhere. The Accenture CIO Mobility Survey 2012 Executive SummaryRights to trademarks referenced herein, other than Accenturetrademarks, belong to their respective owners. We disclaimproprietary interest in the marks and names of others.

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Accenture Mobility MWC 2012 - Bubble over barcelona - lars kamp

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