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A Primer in Wireless Broadband

           San Francisco, October 2006
           Lars Kamp
Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)
You are free to Share or Remix any part of this work as long as you attribute this work to Accenture (accenture.com)
Lars Kamp


                                             Management Consulting


                                             Suite 1200
                                             560 Mission Street
                                             San Francisco, CA 94105
                                             415.894.5423
                                             lars.kamp@accenture.com




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.   2
Before we start – a quick contemporary wireless knowledge quiz




      1. When was the first U.S. cellular system activated?
      2. What was actress Hedy Lamarr’s contribution to the wireless industry back in 1942?
      3. How many satellites make up the previously defunct Iridium satellite system?
      4. What wireless carrier successfully bid for $4.2 billion for 120 licenses in the September 2006
         FCC AWS Auction #66?
      5. What’s the estimated value of the wireless spectrum in the US?




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                  3
Contents




      • Spectrum Fundamentals


      • Wireless Networking


      • Wireless Broadband Economics


      • Future Business Challenges




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.   4
Contents




      • Spectrum fundamentals


      • Wireless Networking


      • Wireless Broadband Economics


      • Future Business Challenges




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.   5
In the beginning: radio signals and frequencies


                 Wavelength (λ)

   +

                                                                                                  Amplitude: Signal strength
                                                                   Amplitude
                                                                                                  One cycle: one complete wave
                                                                                                  Frequency (f): # of cycles/second (Hertz)
                                                                               Time




    -
              one cycle
                                                                                                  The wavelength λ has an inverse relationship to
                                                                                                  frequency
                                                                                                  The wavelength is equal to the speed of the wave
                                                       300                                        divided by the frequency of the wave
                Wavelength λ (m) =                                                                For electromagnetic waves this speed is the speed of
                                               Frequency (MHz)                                    light (≅ 3x108m/s) and therefore constant




        Source: The Essential Guide to Wireless Communications Applications; Accenture analysis

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                                6
Basic properties of radio signals

  Propagation and range                                                                     Capacity and bandwidth
  • Higher frequency waves travel less distance per cycle than lower frequency              • One cycle presents 2 bits: positive and negative peak can carry each 1 bit
    waves: higher frequencies oscillate more often per second and therefore the
                                                                                            • As higher frequencies oscillate more often per second, they can carry more
    wavelengths become shorter
                                                                                              bits
  • The lower the frequency, the longer the wavelength
                                                                                            • The higher the frequency, the higher the channel capacity


                           λ=40 cm                                                                                           1s
  lower frequency




                                                                                                                     1




                                                                                            lower frequency
                                               Signal speed = 3 x 108 m/s (const.)                                                                  T = 1s
     Signal 1




                                                                                               Signal 1
                                               f = 750 MHz = 7.5 x 108 cycles/s                                                                     f = 1/1 = 1 Hertz
                                               λ = 3 / 7.5 = 0.4 m per cycle                                                                        Data rate: 2 bit/s

                     λ=14 cm                                                                                                             0


                                                                                                               1         1       1       1
  higher frequency




                                                                                            higher frequency
                                               Signal speed = 3 x 108 m/s (const.)                                                                  T = 1s
      Signal 2




                                                                                                Signal 2

                                               f = 2,100 MHz = 2.1 x   109   cycles/s                                                               f = 4/1 = 4 Hertz
                                               λ = 3 / 21 = 0.14 m per cycle                                                                        Data rate: 8 bit/s

                                                                                                                    0        0       0       0


                        Lower frequencies propagate farer and are                                                  Higher frequencies have a higher channel
                               less sensible to obstruction                                                           capacity and offer more bandwidth

     Source: Accenture analysis
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                                  7
The Radio Spectrum

                Electric           Radio                             Visible           Ultra                          Gamma            Cosmic
                                                  Infra-red                                           X-Rays
                Waves              Waves                              Light            Violet                          Rays             Rays

                                                                                                                     • Frequencies are high enough
                                Radio Spectrum                                                                         for there to be large total
                                                                                                                       bandwidth
                                                                                                                     • Frequencies are low enough
                                                                                                                       to allow fairly good
                                                                                                                       propagation characteristics
                                                                                       “Sweetspot”
                                                                                                      3G
                                                                                                    LMDS
                                                                                    DECT WiFi
                                                                              TETRA
                                                                                         Bluetooth
                                                                                    GSM
                    Long Wave             Medium Wave                     FM               Microwave Radio
                        Radio                Radio                      Radio       TV          Links
                   VLF              LF            MF            HF              VLF             UHF          SHF            EHF

            3              30             300             3             30             300             3              30            300
                           kHz                                        MHz                                          GHz
                10-100km         1-10km         0.1-1km       10-100m          1-10m         0.1-1m        10-100mm        1-10mm
                                                                                                                                       Wavelength
                                                              Increasing Range                             Decreasing Range
                                                          Decreasing Bandwidth                             Increasing Bandwidth
      Source: Ofcom, "The Spectrum Framework Review“, November 23, 2004; “The Essential Guide to Wireless Communications”, 2002; Accenture analysis

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                          8
In the US, the radio frequencies are regulated and allocated by the Federal
      Communications Commission




      Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, October 2003.
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                     9
Access schemes enable the shared use of a limited medium


     FDMA                                                              • Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) divides spectrum into frequencies
                                                                         (“channels”) which then are assigned to users.
                           Frequency




                                                                f3
                                                                f2     • With FDMA, only one subscriber at any given time is assigned to a channel. The
                                                                f1       channel therefore is closed to other users’ voice or data calls.


                                                                Time


     TDMA                                                              • Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) splits each frequency into time slots and
                                                                         allows each user to access the entire radio frequency channel for a short period.
                           Frequency




                                       f1 f2   f3 f1 f2    f3
                                                                       • Other users share this same frequency channel at different time slots. The base
                                                                         station continually switches from user to user on the channel.


                                                                Time


     CDMA                                                  Code        • Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) allows all users to occupy all channels at
                                                          domain         the same time.
                           Frequency




                                                     3
                                                 2                     • Transmissions are spread over the whole radio band, and users occupying the
                                        Spread                           same spectrum are distinguished from each other by a unique spreading code.
                                        Code 1

                                                                Time


      Source: ITU, "About mobile technology and IMT-2000", December 1, 2005
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                                10
Managing downlink and uplink of a wireless connection


            FDD: Frequency Division Duplex                                                 • A duplexing technique used in licensed
                                                                                             solutions that uses a pair of spectrum
                          Cell site                Radio link                 Subscriber     channels, one for the uplink and another
                                                                                             for the downlink.
                                             U    U              U   U                     • Proven technology for voice, designed for
                                                       Uplink
                                                                                             symmetrical traffic, does not require guard
                                                                                             time.
                                         D   D    D    D   D     D   D    D                • Cannot be deployed where spectrum is
                                                      Downlink
                                                                                             unpaired
                                                                                           • With asymmetric loads, portions of the
                                                                                             spectrum are occupied but not used



            TDD: Time Division Duplex

                          Cell site               Radio link                  Subscriber   • A duplexing technique used in license-
                                                                                             exempt solutions, which uses a single
                                                                                             channel for uplink and downlink.
                                         D   U   U    D    D     U   U   D                 • Enhanced flexibility, easier to pair with
                                                                                             smart antenna technologies, asymmetrical
                                                 Up- and downlink
                                                                                           • Cannot transmit and receive at the same
                                                                                             time.


                                                                                                              Radio resource units

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                   11
“Spectral efficiency” is a measure of a technology’s efficacy at exploiting its
      allocated spectrum




               • Spectral efficiency (bits/s/Hz) is a measure
                                                                         • Spectral efficiency is a good proxy for the
                 of the performance of encoding methods
                                                                           relative cost of wireless network equipment and
                 that code information as variations in an
                                                                           sites in a radio network.
                 analog signal.
                                                                         • Direct comparison is often tricky, as figures
               • An encoding using a 1 kHz of bandwidth to
                                                                           tend to be exaggerated due to test in different
                 transmit a thousand bits every second has a
                                                                           lab environments.
                 spectral efficiency of 1 bit/s/Hz.
                                                                         • Spectral efficiency kicks in with rising
               • Rule of thumb: the actual capacity in a
                                                                           subscriber numbers and usage: the number of
                 multi-cell environment for any wireless
                                                                           sites required by less spectrally efficient
                 technology is about 20%-30% of the peak
                                                                           technologies can grow dramatically.
                 theoretical data rate due to self-interference.




      Source: Industry interviews, ArrayComm, Accenture analysis.

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                              12
Modulation: applying Moore’s Law to radio
   Analog Modulation                                       Digital Modulation

                                  1           0    1          The modulation scheme impacts the available throughput
     Amplitude
                                                                                      40                             37
     Modulation




                                                                  (Mbps) per 10 MHz
                                                                   Raw Throughput
                                                       t                              30                25




                                                                      Channel
                                                                                      20
                                                                                            12
                                                                                      10
                                  1           0    1
     Frequency                                                                         0
     Modulation                                                                            QPSK       16QAM        64QAM
                                                                                                  Modulation scheme
                                                       t
                                                             • Digital modulation - also referred to as shift keying - is a modulation in
                                                               which the modified parameter of the carrier signal can take only discrete
                                                               values (on/off).
                                  1           0    1             • Amplitude Shift Keying (ASK)
     Phase                                                       • Frequency Shift Keying (FSK)
     Modulation                                                  • Phase Shift Keying (PSK)
                                                             • The higher modulation rate is reached through compressing a signal to the
                                                       t       fewest number of bits necessary while maintaining fidelilty.
                                                             • Higher-rate and more robust modulation schemes enable higher
                                                               bandwidth, farer reach and better QoS.
    Source: Lehman Brothers, Accenture analysis.
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                              13
The distance-bandwidth trade-off: adaptive modulation means that speed will vary
      with range

 Data speed and range of WIMAX at 3.5 GHz



                                     Modulation & Code Rate
 Channel         QPSK      QPSK     16QAM 16QAM 64QAM 64QAM 64QAM
 Bandwidth        1/2       3/4       1/2   3/4   1/2   2/3   3/4

  1.25 MHz        1.04      1.56     2.08     3.12     3.12     4.16    4.68                      A   B    C D EF

  1.75 MHz        1.45      2.18     2.91     4.36     4.36     5.82    6.55
                                                                                                                             r
  3.5 MHz         2.91      4.36     5.82     8.73     8.73     11.64   13.09


  5.0 MHz         4.16      6.23     8.32    12.47    12.47     16.62   18.70


  7.0 MHz         5.82      8.73     11.64   17.45    17.45     23.27   26.18        Modulation            QPSK         16QAM            64QAM
                                                                                     Code Rate            1/2   3/4    1/2       3/4    2/3    3/4
  10.0 MHz        8.31     12.47     16.62   24.94    24.94     33.25   37.40
                                                                                     Zone                 A      B      C         D      E      F
  20.0 MHz       16.62     24.94     33.25   49.87    49.87     66.49   74.81
                                                                                     Range (km)       17.1      13.6   7.6       6.1    3.8    3.0

                                                                                     Throughput (Mbps) 5.8      8.7    11.6      17.5   23.3   26.2


 Source: Motorola; system metrics refer to Motorola Canopy Solution

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                          14
Contents




      • Spectrum fundamentals


      • Wireless Networking


      • Wireless Broadband Economics


      • Future Business Challenges




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.   15
Wireless architectures and networks

                                 Wireless Network Types                                Wireless Network Architectures

                                                                                Point-to-Point
                                                                                                      • Used for backhaul
                                                                                                        purposes with directional
                    Sensor           WPAN       WLAN      WMAN     WRAN                                 antennae
                    Networks                                                                          • Speeds up to the Gigabit/s
                                                                                                        range


                                                                                Point-to-Multipoint
                                                                                                      • One point serves multiple
                                                                                                        points around it, with
      Distance                                                                                          omni-directional or
      from cell      -                                                      +                           multiple sector antennae
                                                                                                      • Speeds depend on
   Typical Cell                                                                                         technology and user load
        Reach            ~2m             ~10m   ~30m       ~4km    ~40km
                                                                                Mesh
         IEEE                                             802.16                                      • Every device can
    Standards         agnostic       802.15     802.11    802.20   802.22                               communicate with any
                                                                                                        other device within range
  Commercial                                                                                          • “Self-healing”: network
   Standards/             RFID      Bluetooth               WiMAX cdma2000                              can still operate even
       Names             RuBee       ZigBee     Wi-Fi    Flash-OFDM UMTS                                when a node breaks


© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                               16
Cell-based coverage: the trend to low-powered low-reach networks


                                                               Maritime
                                                              Mobile HF
                                                                Radio
                          280,000 sqm                         (~ 300 mi)


                 1,000,000                                                                                                                       100 Watts
                                                                                                1G
                                                         10,000 sqm                         Macrocellular
                                                                                             Systems
                                                                                                                        2 G Cellular
                                                                                              (~8 mi)
                                                                            700 sqm                                      Expanded
                     100,000                                                                                              Service                10 Watts
                                                                                                                                                             Mobile/
                                                                                                                          (~ 4 mi)
         Cell                                                                                    200 sqm                                                     Portable
         Radius                               MU-MK                                                     50 sqm                                               Maximum
                                              Mobile
         (ft)                               Telephone                                                                12 sqm                       1 Watt
                                                                                                                                                             Power
                     10,000                                     Metroliner      The 2G
                                             (~ 60 mi)             Train                                                        The 3G/Wi-Max                Output
                                                                              “Sweet Spot”                                       “Sweet Spot”
                                                                Telephone
                                                                 (~ 15 mi)                                                       0.75 sqm
                                                                                             2.5 G
                      1,000                                                                Microcells                                             100 mW
                                                                                            (~ 2 mi)
                                                                                                                    PCS                          .01 sqm
                                                                                                                  Microcells                      30 mW
                                                                                                                 (up to 2 mi)                      The 4G
                                                                                                                                WLNAN/LAN
                                                                                                                                  Nanocels
                                                                                                                                                 “Sweet Spot”
                        100
                                                                                                                                (up to 0.2 mi)
                                         1950            1960              1970            1980             1990            2000             2010
      Source: IEEE                                                                Year
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                                17
Cellular architecture: sectorization of a coverage area for the re-use of the same
      frequency

                                                                                                      Cell area        Air interface
                                                                                                      Cell tower   A-F Frequencies




                B                                                   B
                                                                                                       B
                                                              G          C                       G          C
                                                                    A                                  A
                                                                                                 F          D          B
                                                              F          D                             E
                                                        B           E                                              G        C
                                         C                                                                             A
                                                   G          C          B                                         F        D
                                                                                                       B               E
                                                         A          G          C                 G          C
                                                   F          D          A                              A
                                                        E                                         F         D
                A                                                   F          D                        E
                                                                         E

    • A cellular radio has limited range       • Cells are laid out in a honeycomb       • Cells can also be “sectorized” to
    • The area served by a tower is a “cell”     pattern and can be subdivided into        increase capacity
    • As a user moves out of range, the          new cells as traffic increases          • Sectorizing ensures sufficient
      connection transfers to a different      • Adjacent cells use unique frequencies     capacity, while overlay cells ensure
      tower (a ‘handoff” that is often the       to avoid interference requiring the       seamless coverage
      source of dropped connections)             phone to change channels



© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                             18
Generic wireless broadband infrastructure architecture

  Subscriber Modules                     Cellular Infrastructure                Connectivity Service Network                        Interworking


                                  Cell tower, antennae                                             3rd-Party email,
                                   and base station                  Network                       Content & other
                                                                     Element     Mobility    AAA     Application
     Outdoor                                  B           Ethernet   Manager     Manager    Server     Servers
     Antenna                                               Switch
                                     G              C
                                                                                                                                       PSTN
                                              A                                                                       Multi-stack
                                                                                                                       Routers
                                     F              D                                                                                  3GPP
     Indoor                                   E
     Antenna
                                                                                                                                      3GPP2
                                                     IP Router                     Core IP Network
                                                                                                                      IP Router
                                              B                                                                                       Internet
     PCMCIA
     Card                            G              C
                                              A
     3rd-Party                           F          D
                                                                       User    Accounting, DHCP          DNS
     Embedded                                 E                      Repository Billing &  Server       Server
     Subscriber
     Module                                                                     Customer
                                         3-5 km typical                           Care
                                           cell radius




      Source: Cisco, Intel, Siemens, Motorola, Accenture analysis.

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                     19
Four criteria to evaluate a wireless technology


                                         •   Total reach of wireless signal (radius) and resulting coverage per cell (coverage limit)
                                         •   Depends on frequency/spectral region and modulation capabilities
        Coverage                   km2   •   Coverage is key to determining initial system and service delivery cost
                                         •   Determines the coverage-driven base station density for initial deployment


                                         •   Total capacity (Mbps) able to be served by each cell (capacity limit)
                                         •   Depends on spectral efficiency of underlying technology and channelization
        Capacity                  Mbps   •   Capacity is key efficiency factor in mature markets with high penetration rates
                                         •   Determines the capacity-driven base station density


                                         • Total available spectrum (MHz) and quality of spectrum (frequency and licensing regime)
                                         • Depends on regulation: licensed vs. unlicensed, paired vs. unpaired spectrum, spectral region
        Spectrum                   MHz   • Determines cost: licensed (expensive, but protection against interference) vs. unlicensed (free,
                                           but risk of interference); paired (expensive) vs. unpaired (less costly); propagation characteristics


                                         •   Spectrum, base station, infrastructure and device/subscriber module costs
                                         •   Depends on $/MHz/Pop for licensed spectrum and degree of commercialization of technology
        System Cost                  $   •   $/MHz/Pop mainly driven by household income, business density and penetration rates
                                         •   Degree of commercialization depends on standardization efforts and vendor support




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                    20
The US is divided into 734 cellular market areas which are governed by the FCC

                                                                                                  Popu-         % of         Area (SqMi)   % of     Pop/
                                                                                                  lation        total                      Total    SqMi
                                                                               Total US           293.7         100%         3,536, 604    100%       83
                                                                               Urban Areas        196.0         66.7%          73,675      2,1%     2,660
                                                                               Rural Areas          97.7        33.3%         3,462,929    97,9%      28

                                                                               Number of cell towers in the US, 2006 & 2010
                                                                                    300,000                             260,000
                                                                                                           175,000
                                                                                        200,000

                                                                                        100,000

                                                                                              0
                                                                                                      2006                 2010
          734 cellular market areas, composed of:                              Estimates for number of cell towers per operator in the US,
             305 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s)                        in thousands, 2005
             428 Rural Service Areas (RSA’s)                                       50                                   44
             a market for the Gulf of Mexico                                       40
          Licenses are granted through spectrum auctions                           30                      25                    22        24
                                                                                            20
                                                                                   20
                                                                                                                                                     8
                                                                                   10
                                                                                    0
 Source: FCC, US Census Bureau, CTIA, Lehman Brothers, Cell Tower Info Blog
                                                                                           Nextel     Sprint Cingular Verizon T-Mobile             Alltel
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                        21
Network standard convergence: the trend to non-proprietary all-IP 4G networks



                                  2G                    2.5G                       2.75 G                        3G                4G
                               (10 kbps)            (64-144 kbps)              (144-384 kbps)               (384k-2 Mbps)      (> 2Mbps)


            Japan               PDC
                                                                                                     TD-WCDMA
                                       GSM Association, ETSI*                                        3GPP*                   OFDM Based Air
           Europe,                                                                                                             Interfaces
                                GSM                              GPRS
            China
                                                                                                     CDMA 2000
                                             HSCSD                         EDGE                                                 3GP Future
                                                                                                       3xRTT
             US                TDMA                                                                                           Evolvement of
                                                                                                     3GPP2*
                                       UWCC, T1*                                                                                 802.11
                                                                                                                                 802.16
                                                                                                                                 802.20
                                                                                         CDMA 2000
         US, Japan             CDMA
                                                                                           1xRTT                             802.21 Seamless
                                       CDG, TIA*
                                                                                                                                 Mobility

                                                                                                                  SD-WCDMA
            China               GSM
                                                                                                                    (TDD)


                                1998                      2000                    2002               2005             2006               > 2010
                     Migration Path                                                                                          *Regulatory bodies

     Source: ITU, ATS Network Consortium, Gartner Research 2005, EURESCOM, Accenture analysis
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                      22
Contents




      • Spectrum Fundamentals


      • Wireless Networking


      • Wireless Broadband Economics


      • Future Business Challenges




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.   23
Wireless broadband’s problem: for similar price points, the average wireless
      broadband customer uses 10x the bandwidth compared to voice…

      Consumer willingness to pay for wide area mobile services                                                     ESTIMATE




                                                                                                     Consumers’ willingness to
                                          Cellular Voice                    Wireless Broadband       pay for 1 MB of airtime is
        Subscriber price                  $29.99/Month1                     $24.98/Month2            approximately 10x higher for
                                                                                                     mobile voice than for for
                                                                                                     wireless broadband
        Package / Plan                    300 Minutes1                      1.5 Mbit/s upstream &
                                                                                                     For given price points,
                                                                            256 kbit/s downstream2   wireless broadband
        Typical consumption               30 MB/month3                      300 MB/month4            operations require an
                                                                                                     approximately 10x lower
                                                                                                     cost structure than cellular
        Implied revenue per               $1.00                             $0.08                    networks to yield the same
        MB                                                                                           profitability

      [1]   T-Mobile Plan “Basic Plus”, excludes activation fee.
      [2]   Clearwire Plan ClearPremiumTM for the first year, excludes activation fee.
      [3]   Calculated based on GSM codec of 13.2 kbit/s (bandwidth usage).
      [4]   Calculated based on estimated daily traffic of 10MB upstream and 20MB downstream.

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                           24
… and it doesn’t stop there: business is expected to become more difficult


                                Demand side                                Supply side




                • Low subscriber switching costs             • Exploding capex and opex requirements
                                                               to support rising tide of subscriber usage
                • High sensitivity to service quality
                • Extreme price pressure



      Source: ArrayComm

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                  25
What it costs to roll-out a network: 70% of general capital expenditure
      components of today’s mobile networks are driven by the number of cell sites
       Network Components as                                 Acme ISP, Inc.
       % of Capital Expenditure                              WiMAX Offering                         Capacity Planning

100%                                                                  UL         DL          Subs.       UL            DL
        Backhaul            5%                                      (Kbps)     (Kbps)                  Capacity      Capacity
 95%
        Microwave Links     5%
 90%                                                Platinum          512      1,024           10       10*512       10*1,024
        Software/                                   Gold              256         512          30       30*256        30*512                61,44 Mbps
                           15%
        Billing
                                                    Silver            128         256          60       30*128        30*256
 75%
                                                    Total                                     100       20,480        40,960
        Switching          15%

 60%                                                Usage can be calculated as the product of:
                                                        1. % of active users
                                                        2. % avg. air time usage by active users
        Site Costs         20%
                                                    Oversubscription factor (OSF):
                                                    1 / (%usage) = 1 / ( (% active users) * (% avg. air time) )
 40%
                                                    Airtime for all users: 50%
                                                    Percentage of active users:                                   Total data transmitted over long
                                                    Residential    20% of users          OSF = 5                  periods of accumulated peak-
                                                                                                                  times will roughly be equal to
                                                    SME / SOHO 40% of users                                       12 Mbps ( = 61.44 Mbps / OSF)
         Radio             40%
                                                    Enterprise     80% of users

                                                    • Clearwire is estimated to have approximately 840 subscribers per tower
                                                    • Unwired Tower’s in Australia each serve 600-900 customers
                                                                                                                                 Grows proportionally to
     Source: Lehman Brothers, Accenture analysis.                                                                                number of cell sites
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                       26
Propagation characteristics of spectrum impact roll-out costs

      Cost of wireless network deployment based on range and frequency1                                                                        ESTIMATE

                                                                                                                                   Benchmark wireless
             Cell radius,                                                                                                          network cost, US$
                      km                                                                                                           per km2
                          15                                                                                    Weighted           30,000
                                                                                                               average cost
            Rural range                                                                                           (US$)
                                                                                                                                   25,000

                          10                                                                                                       20,000


                                                                                                                                   15,000

                          5                                2,100 MHz                                                               10,000
                                700 MHz                                                                                                          ~ 3 x higher
      Suburban range                                                                                                                             cost for roll-
                                                                                                                                   5,000         out in 2,100
            Urban range
                                                                                                                                                 MHz band

                          0                                                                                                        0
                               500     1,000     1,500     2,000     2,500      3,000     3,500     4,000      4,500     5,000
                                                                     Frequency, MHz
      [1] Propagation calculations based on Okumura-Hata model; base scenario input data:$100,000 per cell site, morphology mix of 25% urban, 50% suburban,
          25% rural, 600 kbit/s peak data rate, coverage-limited scenario
          Source: ArrayCom, Accenture analysis.
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                          27
A simple cash flow model for operations and underlying drivers: what are the best
      KPIs to measure cost efficiency and where are the biggest levers to obtain it?


                           Cash flow model                                             Business case variables and assumptions


                                                                                         Market                             Deployment
                                                                           •   Geographic size                   •   Sectors/cell
                                                                           •   Population density                •   Spectrum available
                                                                           •   Pops/HH ratio                     •   Spectrum re-use
                                                                           •   Broadband penetration             •   Antennae per sector
                                                                           •   Number of SMEs in market          •   Spectrum operating point
                                                          Capacity &       •   PC penetration                    •   Oversubscription factor
                                                          Coverage         •   Notebook share of PCs             •   Coverage for fixed service
                                                                           •   Mobile phone penetration          •   Coverage for mobile service
                                                                           •   Morphology mix                    •   Backhaul approach



                Range
                                                                                    Customer Behavior                Operating Parameters
       • Range: The range of the technology dictates the number of         • Usage per average subscriber in     • Site acquisition/installation cost
         base stations required to reach initial coverage objectives,        busy hour by service segment        • Base station cost/sector
         driving the peak negative cash flow point.                        • Aggregate consumption as function   • NOC cost per data subscriber unit
                                                                             of busy-hour usage                    of capacity
       • Capacity: The capacity of the technology determines how
                                                                           • Retail ARPU segment                 • Backbone connectivity per sub
         many subscribers an operator can support and therefore how
                                                                           • Subscriber device price (paid by    • Subscriber acquisition cost
         much revenue will be received per unit of capital expenditures.
                                                                             subscriber vs. subsidized)          • Subscriber churn
       • Coverage: The coverage quality of the system will affect          • Subscriber adoption                 • Spectrum unit cost
         marketing costs through its influence on unit subscriber          • Modem type mix                      • Spectrum depreciation period
         acquisition expense and churn rates.



© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                         28
Contents




      • Spectrum Fundamentals


      • Wireless Networking


      • Wireless Broadband Economics


      • Future Business Challenges




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.   29
There are four drivers that will determine the future wireless industry structure


                                           Customer demand
                                           •Consumers increasingly demanding “anywhere,
                                            any time” access to voice and data services
                 Competition               •Examples                                          Regulation
                 •New players besides        • High and still rising mobile penetration       •Congress and FCC
                  CellCos and RBOCs          • Projected adoption of wireless data and home    clearing previously
                  entering wireless            networking                                      licensed spectrum,
                  market with offerings                                                        licensing additional
                  ranging from wireless                                                        spectrum, and
                  data only to quad-play                                                       opening more
                  bundles                                                                      unlicensed/nonexclusi
                 •Examples                       Wireless increasingly becoming                ve spectrum
                    • Municipal Wireless          important part of integrated                •Examples
                      in unlicensed                 communication services                        • DTV
                      spectrum                                                                      transition/FCC
                    • Clearwire largest                                                             ATC order
                      owner besides                                                               • 700 MHz/AWS
                      Nextel of 2.5GHz                                                              auctions
                      spectrum             Technology evolution                                   • 2.4/5.7 MHz
                    • CableCos bidding     • New network architectures blurring distinction         unlicensed
                      for spectrum in        between wireless and wireline services                 spectrum
                      AWS auction          • Examples
                                              • IMS/SIP – seamless mobility
                                              • IP-enabled 3G/4G networks
                                              • Smart devices


© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                               30
Customers seem to want access to all services anytime, anywhere

    U.S. households are poised for convergence of cellular and                  Home networks grew by 80% in 2005; Wireless is in
    wireless broadband                                                          two-thirds of all home networks
    U.S. 2005, Millions                                                                                  22%
                                                                                                                              16%
                                                                                U.S. households     13%
                               40.7                                                 with a home                         9%           2006
                                                                                        network                                      2005
                                               32.9

                                                                                                “Online” households All households
            Mio. US                                          19.5
                                                     `                          Analysts predict significant adoption of Wi-Fi enabled
         households
                                                                                phones in the U.S.
                                                                                Millions of wireless users, embedded base


                           Broadband       Broadband       Broadband            Non-Wi-Fi                                            177
                           households      households     households            enabled phones                               193
                                                                                                     197         204
                                             with cell      with cell
                                           subscription   subscription          Wi-Fi enabled
                                                                                phones                      <1          6    26       50
                                                           and Wi-Fi
                                                          access point                               2006        2007        2008    2009



                                      • Consumers’ familiarity with wireless broadband and cellular is growing
                                      • Wi-Fi functionality to be included in 40% of new phones by 2009
   Source: Boingo Wireless, InStat, Forrester, FCC
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                     31
There is a significant amount of new spectrum available to competitors
                                              Spectrum band classification
                                                                                                                                370                                976
                                              Megahertz
       Results AWS Auction   #66 Sep ‘06                                                                      3.6 GHz band       50
       • T-Mobile            $4.2 billion
                                                                                                              5.7 GHz band       80
       • Verizon Wireless    $2.8 billion
       • SpectrumCo          $2.4 billion
       • MetroPCS            $1.4 billion
       • Cingular            $1.3 billion
       • Cricket             $710 million                                                                     2.4 GHz band       240
       • Denali Spectrum     $365 million
       • Barat Wireless      $127 million
                                                                                               170
       • AWS Wireless        $116 million                                     Nextel
                                                                                                         20                                       791
       • Atlantic Wireless   $81 million                                      700 MHz           60
       …                     ….
                                                                               AWS
                                                                                                90
       1,087 licenses         $14 billion                   CCI              251
                                                            700 MHz                    5
                                                            MSV               28       24                        421


                                                            BRS/EBS          194
      • Price in AWS Auction #66: $0.53
        per MHz per POP                                   185
      • Spectrum values have historically   SMR
                                                                     15
                                            Cellular       50
        ranged from a low of $0.15 per
        MHz per POP (Auction 22 in 1999)                                                                         185                              185
        to a high of $4.74 per MHz per      PCS           120
        POP for the 10 MHZ of spectrum in
        the New York city BTA that was                 Licensed           Licensed          Allocate          “New”          Unlicensed/       Total spectrum   Total
        sold by NextWave to Verizon                    spectrum in        spectrum not      licensed          spectrum       nonexclusive-     potentially      spectrum
        Wireless                                       use by             usable for        spectrum          coming         use spectrum      available for    available for
                                                       wireless           mobile            slated for        available      potentially us-   non-incumbent    wireless
                                                       operators          services          auction                          able with new     wireless         operators
     Source: FCC, UBS Research, Accenture analysis.                                                                          technology        operators
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                               32
Technology evolution and convergence blurs the lines between wireline and
      wireless services


    Internet industry: data-centric                         From: stove piped services                 To: service-agnostic delivery

    • all-IP fixed networks: processing                     Service 1      Service 2   Service 3
      power at the edge of the network                      Applicatio                                   Appli-         Appli-         Appli-
                                                              Appli-        Appli-       Appli-          cation         cation         cation
                                                                n
                                                             cation         cation       cation
    • Devices designed to provide superior
      processing power                                      Subscribe
                                                            Subscriber    Subscriber   Subscriber                  Subscriber data
                                                              rdata
                                                                data        data         data
    • Zero marginal cost for service                          Media          Media       Media                     Media functions
      provision                                             functions      functions   functions

    • Consumers are making decisions, not                    Service       Service      Service
                                              Convergence

                                                                                                        IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) delivery
                                                             delivery      delivery     delivery
      the industry: highly innovative

                                                            Wireline       Wireline    Wireless         Wireline      Wireline       Wireless
                                                            access         access      access           access        access         access
    Cellular industry: voice-centric
    • Circuit-switched networks; processing
      power at the core of the network
    • Devices designed to provide mobility
      and long battery life
                                                                            IMS and interim FMC technologies enabling
    • > 0 marginal cost for service                                      seamless service delivery across multiple networks
      provision
    • Industry is making decisions, not the
      consumer: R&D trial & error



© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                    33
There are numerous attackers in the market with wireless expertise and different
      business models
                                                                                                           Business                Wireless     Spectrum
   Attacker                           Description                                                          model                   operations   licenses

                                         Aloha Partners currently own 12MHz of spectrum                    Residential wireless
                                         covering 60% of the United States, all of the top 10              broadband access
                                         markets and 84% of the population in the top 40 markets.
                                         Aloha Partners have no network operations as of now, but
                                                                                                           and Mobile TV
                                                                                                                                       -
                                         plan to roll-out

                                         Clearwire has the second largest position of 2.5 GHz              Residential and SME
                                         spectrum in the US                                                wireless broadband
                                         Clearwire offers services in 27 markets in the United             access in underserved
                                         States, covering more than 200 municipalities with an             or Greenfield markets
                                         estimated 4.8 million people.

                                         Towerstream operates in the license-free 5.8GHz band,             SME and enterprise
                                         with licenses in the 24 GHz band for backhaul                     wireless broadband
                                         Towerstream serves the markets in NYC, LA, Chicago,
                                         Boston, Providen and Newport, Rhode Island and San
                                                                                                           access in large metro
                                                                                                           areas, VoIP
                                                                                                                                                   -
                                         Francisco

                                         Tropos Networks and Mesh Networks are network gear                White label network
                                         vendors with focus on unlicensed WiFi mesh networks
                                         WiFi mesh networks are being deployed by municipalities
                                         across the US, usually in collaboration with an ISP, e.g.
                                                                                                           provider with turnkey
                                                                                                           solution                                -
                                         EarthLink and Google in San Francisco




      Source: Company websites, Yahoo! Finance, SEC filings, Accenture analysis. All figures as of May 17th, 2006.
© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                                     34
And then there also is… you!




   • Meraki Mini: $49 wireless 802.11b/g router that allows users to        • “La Fonera”: $5 wireless 802.11b/g router that allows users of
     build a wireless mesh network or extend the range of a                   the FON community to share their wireless Internet:
     municipal network.
                                                                               • Linus: Share their WiFi hotspot and get free roaming on
   • Meraki also has mesh routing software and hosted billing/user               Fon network
     management tools “operators” need to run a production
                                                                               • Bills: Share their WiFi hotspot and get 50% of the revenue
     network.
                                                                                 generated by aliens but no roaming
   • An “operator” can set pricing and also brand its service
                                                                               • Aliens: Customers that pay for access to the Fon network
                                                                                 ($3 for day pass)



                                                The
                                                future??

© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.                                 35
That’s all, folks!




                                               May I be
                                              excused?
                                              My brain is
                                                 full!




© 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved.   36

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Accenture - A Primer in Wireless Broadband

  • 1. A Primer in Wireless Broadband San Francisco, October 2006 Lars Kamp Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0) You are free to Share or Remix any part of this work as long as you attribute this work to Accenture (accenture.com)
  • 2. Lars Kamp Management Consulting Suite 1200 560 Mission Street San Francisco, CA 94105 415.894.5423 lars.kamp@accenture.com © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 2
  • 3. Before we start – a quick contemporary wireless knowledge quiz 1. When was the first U.S. cellular system activated? 2. What was actress Hedy Lamarr’s contribution to the wireless industry back in 1942? 3. How many satellites make up the previously defunct Iridium satellite system? 4. What wireless carrier successfully bid for $4.2 billion for 120 licenses in the September 2006 FCC AWS Auction #66? 5. What’s the estimated value of the wireless spectrum in the US? © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 3
  • 4. Contents • Spectrum Fundamentals • Wireless Networking • Wireless Broadband Economics • Future Business Challenges © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 4
  • 5. Contents • Spectrum fundamentals • Wireless Networking • Wireless Broadband Economics • Future Business Challenges © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 5
  • 6. In the beginning: radio signals and frequencies Wavelength (λ) + Amplitude: Signal strength Amplitude One cycle: one complete wave Frequency (f): # of cycles/second (Hertz) Time - one cycle The wavelength λ has an inverse relationship to frequency The wavelength is equal to the speed of the wave 300 divided by the frequency of the wave Wavelength λ (m) = For electromagnetic waves this speed is the speed of Frequency (MHz) light (≅ 3x108m/s) and therefore constant Source: The Essential Guide to Wireless Communications Applications; Accenture analysis © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 6
  • 7. Basic properties of radio signals Propagation and range Capacity and bandwidth • Higher frequency waves travel less distance per cycle than lower frequency • One cycle presents 2 bits: positive and negative peak can carry each 1 bit waves: higher frequencies oscillate more often per second and therefore the • As higher frequencies oscillate more often per second, they can carry more wavelengths become shorter bits • The lower the frequency, the longer the wavelength • The higher the frequency, the higher the channel capacity λ=40 cm 1s lower frequency 1 lower frequency Signal speed = 3 x 108 m/s (const.) T = 1s Signal 1 Signal 1 f = 750 MHz = 7.5 x 108 cycles/s f = 1/1 = 1 Hertz λ = 3 / 7.5 = 0.4 m per cycle Data rate: 2 bit/s λ=14 cm 0 1 1 1 1 higher frequency higher frequency Signal speed = 3 x 108 m/s (const.) T = 1s Signal 2 Signal 2 f = 2,100 MHz = 2.1 x 109 cycles/s f = 4/1 = 4 Hertz λ = 3 / 21 = 0.14 m per cycle Data rate: 8 bit/s 0 0 0 0 Lower frequencies propagate farer and are Higher frequencies have a higher channel less sensible to obstruction capacity and offer more bandwidth Source: Accenture analysis © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 7
  • 8. The Radio Spectrum Electric Radio Visible Ultra Gamma Cosmic Infra-red X-Rays Waves Waves Light Violet Rays Rays • Frequencies are high enough Radio Spectrum for there to be large total bandwidth • Frequencies are low enough to allow fairly good propagation characteristics “Sweetspot” 3G LMDS DECT WiFi TETRA Bluetooth GSM Long Wave Medium Wave FM Microwave Radio Radio Radio Radio TV Links VLF LF MF HF VLF UHF SHF EHF 3 30 300 3 30 300 3 30 300 kHz MHz GHz 10-100km 1-10km 0.1-1km 10-100m 1-10m 0.1-1m 10-100mm 1-10mm Wavelength Increasing Range Decreasing Range Decreasing Bandwidth Increasing Bandwidth Source: Ofcom, "The Spectrum Framework Review“, November 23, 2004; “The Essential Guide to Wireless Communications”, 2002; Accenture analysis © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 8
  • 9. In the US, the radio frequencies are regulated and allocated by the Federal Communications Commission Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, October 2003. © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 9
  • 10. Access schemes enable the shared use of a limited medium FDMA • Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) divides spectrum into frequencies (“channels”) which then are assigned to users. Frequency f3 f2 • With FDMA, only one subscriber at any given time is assigned to a channel. The f1 channel therefore is closed to other users’ voice or data calls. Time TDMA • Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) splits each frequency into time slots and allows each user to access the entire radio frequency channel for a short period. Frequency f1 f2 f3 f1 f2 f3 • Other users share this same frequency channel at different time slots. The base station continually switches from user to user on the channel. Time CDMA Code • Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) allows all users to occupy all channels at domain the same time. Frequency 3 2 • Transmissions are spread over the whole radio band, and users occupying the Spread same spectrum are distinguished from each other by a unique spreading code. Code 1 Time Source: ITU, "About mobile technology and IMT-2000", December 1, 2005 © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 10
  • 11. Managing downlink and uplink of a wireless connection FDD: Frequency Division Duplex • A duplexing technique used in licensed solutions that uses a pair of spectrum Cell site Radio link Subscriber channels, one for the uplink and another for the downlink. U U U U • Proven technology for voice, designed for Uplink symmetrical traffic, does not require guard time. D D D D D D D D • Cannot be deployed where spectrum is Downlink unpaired • With asymmetric loads, portions of the spectrum are occupied but not used TDD: Time Division Duplex Cell site Radio link Subscriber • A duplexing technique used in license- exempt solutions, which uses a single channel for uplink and downlink. D U U D D U U D • Enhanced flexibility, easier to pair with smart antenna technologies, asymmetrical Up- and downlink • Cannot transmit and receive at the same time. Radio resource units © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 11
  • 12. “Spectral efficiency” is a measure of a technology’s efficacy at exploiting its allocated spectrum • Spectral efficiency (bits/s/Hz) is a measure • Spectral efficiency is a good proxy for the of the performance of encoding methods relative cost of wireless network equipment and that code information as variations in an sites in a radio network. analog signal. • Direct comparison is often tricky, as figures • An encoding using a 1 kHz of bandwidth to tend to be exaggerated due to test in different transmit a thousand bits every second has a lab environments. spectral efficiency of 1 bit/s/Hz. • Spectral efficiency kicks in with rising • Rule of thumb: the actual capacity in a subscriber numbers and usage: the number of multi-cell environment for any wireless sites required by less spectrally efficient technology is about 20%-30% of the peak technologies can grow dramatically. theoretical data rate due to self-interference. Source: Industry interviews, ArrayComm, Accenture analysis. © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 12
  • 13. Modulation: applying Moore’s Law to radio Analog Modulation Digital Modulation 1 0 1 The modulation scheme impacts the available throughput Amplitude 40 37 Modulation (Mbps) per 10 MHz Raw Throughput t 30 25 Channel 20 12 10 1 0 1 Frequency 0 Modulation QPSK 16QAM 64QAM Modulation scheme t • Digital modulation - also referred to as shift keying - is a modulation in which the modified parameter of the carrier signal can take only discrete values (on/off). 1 0 1 • Amplitude Shift Keying (ASK) Phase • Frequency Shift Keying (FSK) Modulation • Phase Shift Keying (PSK) • The higher modulation rate is reached through compressing a signal to the t fewest number of bits necessary while maintaining fidelilty. • Higher-rate and more robust modulation schemes enable higher bandwidth, farer reach and better QoS. Source: Lehman Brothers, Accenture analysis. © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 13
  • 14. The distance-bandwidth trade-off: adaptive modulation means that speed will vary with range Data speed and range of WIMAX at 3.5 GHz Modulation & Code Rate Channel QPSK QPSK 16QAM 16QAM 64QAM 64QAM 64QAM Bandwidth 1/2 3/4 1/2 3/4 1/2 2/3 3/4 1.25 MHz 1.04 1.56 2.08 3.12 3.12 4.16 4.68 A B C D EF 1.75 MHz 1.45 2.18 2.91 4.36 4.36 5.82 6.55 r 3.5 MHz 2.91 4.36 5.82 8.73 8.73 11.64 13.09 5.0 MHz 4.16 6.23 8.32 12.47 12.47 16.62 18.70 7.0 MHz 5.82 8.73 11.64 17.45 17.45 23.27 26.18 Modulation QPSK 16QAM 64QAM Code Rate 1/2 3/4 1/2 3/4 2/3 3/4 10.0 MHz 8.31 12.47 16.62 24.94 24.94 33.25 37.40 Zone A B C D E F 20.0 MHz 16.62 24.94 33.25 49.87 49.87 66.49 74.81 Range (km) 17.1 13.6 7.6 6.1 3.8 3.0 Throughput (Mbps) 5.8 8.7 11.6 17.5 23.3 26.2 Source: Motorola; system metrics refer to Motorola Canopy Solution © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 14
  • 15. Contents • Spectrum fundamentals • Wireless Networking • Wireless Broadband Economics • Future Business Challenges © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 15
  • 16. Wireless architectures and networks Wireless Network Types Wireless Network Architectures Point-to-Point • Used for backhaul purposes with directional Sensor WPAN WLAN WMAN WRAN antennae Networks • Speeds up to the Gigabit/s range Point-to-Multipoint • One point serves multiple points around it, with Distance omni-directional or from cell - + multiple sector antennae • Speeds depend on Typical Cell technology and user load Reach ~2m ~10m ~30m ~4km ~40km Mesh IEEE 802.16 • Every device can Standards agnostic 802.15 802.11 802.20 802.22 communicate with any other device within range Commercial • “Self-healing”: network Standards/ RFID Bluetooth WiMAX cdma2000 can still operate even Names RuBee ZigBee Wi-Fi Flash-OFDM UMTS when a node breaks © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 16
  • 17. Cell-based coverage: the trend to low-powered low-reach networks Maritime Mobile HF Radio 280,000 sqm (~ 300 mi) 1,000,000 100 Watts 1G 10,000 sqm Macrocellular Systems 2 G Cellular (~8 mi) 700 sqm Expanded 100,000 Service 10 Watts Mobile/ (~ 4 mi) Cell 200 sqm Portable Radius MU-MK 50 sqm Maximum Mobile (ft) Telephone 12 sqm 1 Watt Power 10,000 Metroliner The 2G (~ 60 mi) Train The 3G/Wi-Max Output “Sweet Spot” “Sweet Spot” Telephone (~ 15 mi) 0.75 sqm 2.5 G 1,000 Microcells 100 mW (~ 2 mi) PCS .01 sqm Microcells 30 mW (up to 2 mi) The 4G WLNAN/LAN Nanocels “Sweet Spot” 100 (up to 0.2 mi) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: IEEE Year © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 17
  • 18. Cellular architecture: sectorization of a coverage area for the re-use of the same frequency Cell area Air interface Cell tower A-F Frequencies B B B G C G C A A F D B F D E B E G C C A G C B F D B E A G C G C F D A A E F D A F D E E • A cellular radio has limited range • Cells are laid out in a honeycomb • Cells can also be “sectorized” to • The area served by a tower is a “cell” pattern and can be subdivided into increase capacity • As a user moves out of range, the new cells as traffic increases • Sectorizing ensures sufficient connection transfers to a different • Adjacent cells use unique frequencies capacity, while overlay cells ensure tower (a ‘handoff” that is often the to avoid interference requiring the seamless coverage source of dropped connections) phone to change channels © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 18
  • 19. Generic wireless broadband infrastructure architecture Subscriber Modules Cellular Infrastructure Connectivity Service Network Interworking Cell tower, antennae 3rd-Party email, and base station Network Content & other Element Mobility AAA Application Outdoor B Ethernet Manager Manager Server Servers Antenna Switch G C PSTN A Multi-stack Routers F D 3GPP Indoor E Antenna 3GPP2 IP Router Core IP Network IP Router B Internet PCMCIA Card G C A 3rd-Party F D User Accounting, DHCP DNS Embedded E Repository Billing & Server Server Subscriber Module Customer 3-5 km typical Care cell radius Source: Cisco, Intel, Siemens, Motorola, Accenture analysis. © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 19
  • 20. Four criteria to evaluate a wireless technology • Total reach of wireless signal (radius) and resulting coverage per cell (coverage limit) • Depends on frequency/spectral region and modulation capabilities Coverage km2 • Coverage is key to determining initial system and service delivery cost • Determines the coverage-driven base station density for initial deployment • Total capacity (Mbps) able to be served by each cell (capacity limit) • Depends on spectral efficiency of underlying technology and channelization Capacity Mbps • Capacity is key efficiency factor in mature markets with high penetration rates • Determines the capacity-driven base station density • Total available spectrum (MHz) and quality of spectrum (frequency and licensing regime) • Depends on regulation: licensed vs. unlicensed, paired vs. unpaired spectrum, spectral region Spectrum MHz • Determines cost: licensed (expensive, but protection against interference) vs. unlicensed (free, but risk of interference); paired (expensive) vs. unpaired (less costly); propagation characteristics • Spectrum, base station, infrastructure and device/subscriber module costs • Depends on $/MHz/Pop for licensed spectrum and degree of commercialization of technology System Cost $ • $/MHz/Pop mainly driven by household income, business density and penetration rates • Degree of commercialization depends on standardization efforts and vendor support © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 20
  • 21. The US is divided into 734 cellular market areas which are governed by the FCC Popu- % of Area (SqMi) % of Pop/ lation total Total SqMi Total US 293.7 100% 3,536, 604 100% 83 Urban Areas 196.0 66.7% 73,675 2,1% 2,660 Rural Areas 97.7 33.3% 3,462,929 97,9% 28 Number of cell towers in the US, 2006 & 2010 300,000 260,000 175,000 200,000 100,000 0 2006 2010 734 cellular market areas, composed of: Estimates for number of cell towers per operator in the US, 305 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) in thousands, 2005 428 Rural Service Areas (RSA’s) 50 44 a market for the Gulf of Mexico 40 Licenses are granted through spectrum auctions 30 25 22 24 20 20 8 10 0 Source: FCC, US Census Bureau, CTIA, Lehman Brothers, Cell Tower Info Blog Nextel Sprint Cingular Verizon T-Mobile Alltel © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 21
  • 22. Network standard convergence: the trend to non-proprietary all-IP 4G networks 2G 2.5G 2.75 G 3G 4G (10 kbps) (64-144 kbps) (144-384 kbps) (384k-2 Mbps) (> 2Mbps) Japan PDC TD-WCDMA GSM Association, ETSI* 3GPP* OFDM Based Air Europe, Interfaces GSM GPRS China CDMA 2000 HSCSD EDGE 3GP Future 3xRTT US TDMA Evolvement of 3GPP2* UWCC, T1* 802.11 802.16 802.20 CDMA 2000 US, Japan CDMA 1xRTT 802.21 Seamless CDG, TIA* Mobility SD-WCDMA China GSM (TDD) 1998 2000 2002 2005 2006 > 2010 Migration Path *Regulatory bodies Source: ITU, ATS Network Consortium, Gartner Research 2005, EURESCOM, Accenture analysis © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 22
  • 23. Contents • Spectrum Fundamentals • Wireless Networking • Wireless Broadband Economics • Future Business Challenges © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 23
  • 24. Wireless broadband’s problem: for similar price points, the average wireless broadband customer uses 10x the bandwidth compared to voice… Consumer willingness to pay for wide area mobile services ESTIMATE Consumers’ willingness to Cellular Voice Wireless Broadband pay for 1 MB of airtime is Subscriber price $29.99/Month1 $24.98/Month2 approximately 10x higher for mobile voice than for for wireless broadband Package / Plan 300 Minutes1 1.5 Mbit/s upstream & For given price points, 256 kbit/s downstream2 wireless broadband Typical consumption 30 MB/month3 300 MB/month4 operations require an approximately 10x lower cost structure than cellular Implied revenue per $1.00 $0.08 networks to yield the same MB profitability [1] T-Mobile Plan “Basic Plus”, excludes activation fee. [2] Clearwire Plan ClearPremiumTM for the first year, excludes activation fee. [3] Calculated based on GSM codec of 13.2 kbit/s (bandwidth usage). [4] Calculated based on estimated daily traffic of 10MB upstream and 20MB downstream. © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 24
  • 25. … and it doesn’t stop there: business is expected to become more difficult Demand side Supply side • Low subscriber switching costs • Exploding capex and opex requirements to support rising tide of subscriber usage • High sensitivity to service quality • Extreme price pressure Source: ArrayComm © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 25
  • 26. What it costs to roll-out a network: 70% of general capital expenditure components of today’s mobile networks are driven by the number of cell sites Network Components as Acme ISP, Inc. % of Capital Expenditure WiMAX Offering Capacity Planning 100% UL DL Subs. UL DL Backhaul 5% (Kbps) (Kbps) Capacity Capacity 95% Microwave Links 5% 90% Platinum 512 1,024 10 10*512 10*1,024 Software/ Gold 256 512 30 30*256 30*512 61,44 Mbps 15% Billing Silver 128 256 60 30*128 30*256 75% Total 100 20,480 40,960 Switching 15% 60% Usage can be calculated as the product of: 1. % of active users 2. % avg. air time usage by active users Site Costs 20% Oversubscription factor (OSF): 1 / (%usage) = 1 / ( (% active users) * (% avg. air time) ) 40% Airtime for all users: 50% Percentage of active users: Total data transmitted over long Residential 20% of users OSF = 5 periods of accumulated peak- times will roughly be equal to SME / SOHO 40% of users 12 Mbps ( = 61.44 Mbps / OSF) Radio 40% Enterprise 80% of users • Clearwire is estimated to have approximately 840 subscribers per tower • Unwired Tower’s in Australia each serve 600-900 customers Grows proportionally to Source: Lehman Brothers, Accenture analysis. number of cell sites © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 26
  • 27. Propagation characteristics of spectrum impact roll-out costs Cost of wireless network deployment based on range and frequency1 ESTIMATE Benchmark wireless Cell radius, network cost, US$ km per km2 15 Weighted 30,000 average cost Rural range (US$) 25,000 10 20,000 15,000 5 2,100 MHz 10,000 700 MHz ~ 3 x higher Suburban range cost for roll- 5,000 out in 2,100 Urban range MHz band 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Frequency, MHz [1] Propagation calculations based on Okumura-Hata model; base scenario input data:$100,000 per cell site, morphology mix of 25% urban, 50% suburban, 25% rural, 600 kbit/s peak data rate, coverage-limited scenario Source: ArrayCom, Accenture analysis. © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 27
  • 28. A simple cash flow model for operations and underlying drivers: what are the best KPIs to measure cost efficiency and where are the biggest levers to obtain it? Cash flow model Business case variables and assumptions Market Deployment • Geographic size • Sectors/cell • Population density • Spectrum available • Pops/HH ratio • Spectrum re-use • Broadband penetration • Antennae per sector • Number of SMEs in market • Spectrum operating point Capacity & • PC penetration • Oversubscription factor Coverage • Notebook share of PCs • Coverage for fixed service • Mobile phone penetration • Coverage for mobile service • Morphology mix • Backhaul approach Range Customer Behavior Operating Parameters • Range: The range of the technology dictates the number of • Usage per average subscriber in • Site acquisition/installation cost base stations required to reach initial coverage objectives, busy hour by service segment • Base station cost/sector driving the peak negative cash flow point. • Aggregate consumption as function • NOC cost per data subscriber unit of busy-hour usage of capacity • Capacity: The capacity of the technology determines how • Retail ARPU segment • Backbone connectivity per sub many subscribers an operator can support and therefore how • Subscriber device price (paid by • Subscriber acquisition cost much revenue will be received per unit of capital expenditures. subscriber vs. subsidized) • Subscriber churn • Coverage: The coverage quality of the system will affect • Subscriber adoption • Spectrum unit cost marketing costs through its influence on unit subscriber • Modem type mix • Spectrum depreciation period acquisition expense and churn rates. © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 28
  • 29. Contents • Spectrum Fundamentals • Wireless Networking • Wireless Broadband Economics • Future Business Challenges © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 29
  • 30. There are four drivers that will determine the future wireless industry structure Customer demand •Consumers increasingly demanding “anywhere, any time” access to voice and data services Competition •Examples Regulation •New players besides • High and still rising mobile penetration •Congress and FCC CellCos and RBOCs • Projected adoption of wireless data and home clearing previously entering wireless networking licensed spectrum, market with offerings licensing additional ranging from wireless spectrum, and data only to quad-play opening more bundles unlicensed/nonexclusi •Examples Wireless increasingly becoming ve spectrum • Municipal Wireless important part of integrated •Examples in unlicensed communication services • DTV spectrum transition/FCC • Clearwire largest ATC order owner besides • 700 MHz/AWS Nextel of 2.5GHz auctions spectrum Technology evolution • 2.4/5.7 MHz • CableCos bidding • New network architectures blurring distinction unlicensed for spectrum in between wireless and wireline services spectrum AWS auction • Examples • IMS/SIP – seamless mobility • IP-enabled 3G/4G networks • Smart devices © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 30
  • 31. Customers seem to want access to all services anytime, anywhere U.S. households are poised for convergence of cellular and Home networks grew by 80% in 2005; Wireless is in wireless broadband two-thirds of all home networks U.S. 2005, Millions 22% 16% U.S. households 13% 40.7 with a home 9% 2006 network 2005 32.9 “Online” households All households Mio. US 19.5 ` Analysts predict significant adoption of Wi-Fi enabled households phones in the U.S. Millions of wireless users, embedded base Broadband Broadband Broadband Non-Wi-Fi 177 households households households enabled phones 193 197 204 with cell with cell subscription subscription Wi-Fi enabled phones <1 6 26 50 and Wi-Fi access point 2006 2007 2008 2009 • Consumers’ familiarity with wireless broadband and cellular is growing • Wi-Fi functionality to be included in 40% of new phones by 2009 Source: Boingo Wireless, InStat, Forrester, FCC © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 31
  • 32. There is a significant amount of new spectrum available to competitors Spectrum band classification 370 976 Megahertz Results AWS Auction #66 Sep ‘06 3.6 GHz band 50 • T-Mobile $4.2 billion 5.7 GHz band 80 • Verizon Wireless $2.8 billion • SpectrumCo $2.4 billion • MetroPCS $1.4 billion • Cingular $1.3 billion • Cricket $710 million 2.4 GHz band 240 • Denali Spectrum $365 million • Barat Wireless $127 million 170 • AWS Wireless $116 million Nextel 20 791 • Atlantic Wireless $81 million 700 MHz 60 … …. AWS 90 1,087 licenses $14 billion CCI 251 700 MHz 5 MSV 28 24 421 BRS/EBS 194 • Price in AWS Auction #66: $0.53 per MHz per POP 185 • Spectrum values have historically SMR 15 Cellular 50 ranged from a low of $0.15 per MHz per POP (Auction 22 in 1999) 185 185 to a high of $4.74 per MHz per PCS 120 POP for the 10 MHZ of spectrum in the New York city BTA that was Licensed Licensed Allocate “New” Unlicensed/ Total spectrum Total sold by NextWave to Verizon spectrum in spectrum not licensed spectrum nonexclusive- potentially spectrum Wireless use by usable for spectrum coming use spectrum available for available for wireless mobile slated for available potentially us- non-incumbent wireless operators services auction able with new wireless operators Source: FCC, UBS Research, Accenture analysis. technology operators © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 32
  • 33. Technology evolution and convergence blurs the lines between wireline and wireless services Internet industry: data-centric From: stove piped services To: service-agnostic delivery • all-IP fixed networks: processing Service 1 Service 2 Service 3 power at the edge of the network Applicatio Appli- Appli- Appli- Appli- Appli- Appli- cation cation cation n cation cation cation • Devices designed to provide superior processing power Subscribe Subscriber Subscriber Subscriber Subscriber data rdata data data data • Zero marginal cost for service Media Media Media Media functions provision functions functions functions • Consumers are making decisions, not Service Service Service Convergence IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) delivery delivery delivery delivery the industry: highly innovative Wireline Wireline Wireless Wireline Wireline Wireless access access access access access access Cellular industry: voice-centric • Circuit-switched networks; processing power at the core of the network • Devices designed to provide mobility and long battery life IMS and interim FMC technologies enabling • > 0 marginal cost for service seamless service delivery across multiple networks provision • Industry is making decisions, not the consumer: R&D trial & error © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 33
  • 34. There are numerous attackers in the market with wireless expertise and different business models Business Wireless Spectrum Attacker Description model operations licenses Aloha Partners currently own 12MHz of spectrum Residential wireless covering 60% of the United States, all of the top 10 broadband access markets and 84% of the population in the top 40 markets. Aloha Partners have no network operations as of now, but and Mobile TV - plan to roll-out Clearwire has the second largest position of 2.5 GHz Residential and SME spectrum in the US wireless broadband Clearwire offers services in 27 markets in the United access in underserved States, covering more than 200 municipalities with an or Greenfield markets estimated 4.8 million people. Towerstream operates in the license-free 5.8GHz band, SME and enterprise with licenses in the 24 GHz band for backhaul wireless broadband Towerstream serves the markets in NYC, LA, Chicago, Boston, Providen and Newport, Rhode Island and San access in large metro areas, VoIP - Francisco Tropos Networks and Mesh Networks are network gear White label network vendors with focus on unlicensed WiFi mesh networks WiFi mesh networks are being deployed by municipalities across the US, usually in collaboration with an ISP, e.g. provider with turnkey solution - EarthLink and Google in San Francisco Source: Company websites, Yahoo! Finance, SEC filings, Accenture analysis. All figures as of May 17th, 2006. © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 34
  • 35. And then there also is… you! • Meraki Mini: $49 wireless 802.11b/g router that allows users to • “La Fonera”: $5 wireless 802.11b/g router that allows users of build a wireless mesh network or extend the range of a the FON community to share their wireless Internet: municipal network. • Linus: Share their WiFi hotspot and get free roaming on • Meraki also has mesh routing software and hosted billing/user Fon network management tools “operators” need to run a production • Bills: Share their WiFi hotspot and get 50% of the revenue network. generated by aliens but no roaming • An “operator” can set pricing and also brand its service • Aliens: Customers that pay for access to the Fon network ($3 for day pass) The future?? © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 35
  • 36. That’s all, folks! May I be excused? My brain is full! © 2006 Accenture. All rights reserved. 36