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Mongolia: 2010-2020 Outlook
Summary
Mongolia: Massive Resources
Mongolia 2010: Start of Multi-Year Bull Market
Mongolia: Today and in 2020
Growth Driv...
Mongolia: overview
Land Area: 1.56m sq.km
(50% size of India)
Population: 2.7m
(lowest density in the world)
Capital: Ulaa...
Mongolia: economic growth
•

Fast growing economy

•

Drivers of growth: investment, demand for resources and commodity pr...
Best Performing Market
MSE Top-20 up 138% in 2010, best performing market globally
MNT +12.9% vs USD in 2010, second best ...
Mongolia - Saudi Arabia of Mining
“The country is incredibly resource rich, another Saudi
Arabia, next to the largest popu...
Mongolia in 2010 and 2020
2020

2010

35

6.6

5x
18% per year

2,450

4x

10,000

MSE Mkt Cap, US$bn

1

20x

20

Bank As...
Commodity Output
2010

2020

Coal

17m tn per year

100m tn per year

Iron ore

3.5m tn per year

12m tn per year

Copper
...
Growth Story I: Kazakhstan
2002
GDP, US$bn

GDP per capita, US$
KASE MrktCap,
US$bn

Banking assets, US$bn

2007
4.2x

105...
Growth Story II: Qatar
1998
GDP, US$bn

10

GDP per capita, US$

15,000

Qatar SE MktCap,
US$bn

Banking assets, US$bn

Po...
Conclusions
Economy

Fastest growing economy in next decade (2010-2020)

Drivers

Investments, exports, wealth creation

I...
Eurasia Capital
Eurasia Capital is a Hong Kong-based pan-regional investment bank
with strong presence and focus in fronti...
Offices
MONGOLIA
Suite 65, 6th Floor
Grand Office Center
Jamiyangun Street 12,
12,
st Khoroo
1
Sukhbaatar District
Ulaanba...
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Euro asia mongolia 2020

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Transcript of "Euro asia mongolia 2020"

  1. 1. Mongolia: 2010-2020 Outlook
  2. 2. Summary Mongolia: Massive Resources Mongolia 2010: Start of Multi-Year Bull Market Mongolia: Today and in 2020 Growth Drivers Similar Growth Stories: • Kazakhstan • Qatar Conclusions 2
  3. 3. Mongolia: overview Land Area: 1.56m sq.km (50% size of India) Population: 2.7m (lowest density in the world) Capital: Ulaanbaatar Religion: 95% Buddhism Literacy rate: 97.8% Language: Khalka Mongol Currency: Mongolian Togrog (“MNT”) Political System: Democracy GDP (2010): $6.6bn GDP per capita: $2,400 GDP est 2025: $60bn GDP growth (2010-25): c.20% pa GDP per capita (2025): $20,000 Source: National Statistics Office of Mongolia 3
  4. 4. Mongolia: economic growth • Fast growing economy • Drivers of growth: investment, demand for resources and commodity prices • Large scale production starting at Oyu Tolgoi, Tavan Tolgoi and other mines • GDP forecast to grow 10x to $60bn by 2025 GDP Growth 10 largest deposits worth US$1.3tn 40 35.1 35 31.9 28.0 30 23.7 25 19.1 20 15 10 6.6 7.7 8.9 10.2 12.3 15.3 5 0 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f GDP, US$bn (LHS) Source: Temasek Source: Eurasia Capital estimates 4
  5. 5. Best Performing Market MSE Top-20 up 138% in 2010, best performing market globally MNT +12.9% vs USD in 2010, second best performing currency globally 1490 MSE Top-20 index 12,500 MNT vs USD 1470 11,500 1450 1430 10,500 1410 9,500 1390 8,500 1370 7,500 1350 6,500 1330 1310 Source: MSE 30-Aug 16-Aug 2-Aug 19-Jul 5-Jul 21-Jun 7-Jun 24-May 10-May 26-Apr 12-Apr 29-Mar 15-Mar 1-Mar 15-Feb 1-Feb 18-Jan 4-Jan 5,500 1290 Source: Bank of Mongolia 5
  6. 6. Mongolia - Saudi Arabia of Mining “The country is incredibly resource rich, another Saudi Arabia, next to the largest population in the world,” “Mongolia could be the Saudi Arabia of Asia” Mark Faber, Emerging markets investor “I expect frontier markets, like Mongolia, will continue to have very compelling investment opportunities over the next year and beyond.” Mark Mobius, Chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets ‘‘Coal from Mongolia to China is happening. It is expanding, probably doubling every two years,’’ Tom Albanese, CEO, Rio Tinto 6
  7. 7. Mongolia in 2010 and 2020 2020 2010 35 6.6 5x 18% per year 2,450 4x 10,000 MSE Mkt Cap, US$bn 1 20x 20 Bank Assets, US$bn 2.8 9x 25 1,300 +30% GDP, US$bn GDP per capita, US$ MNT/US$ rate 900 7
  8. 8. Commodity Output 2010 2020 Coal 17m tn per year 100m tn per year Iron ore 3.5m tn per year 12m tn per year Copper 600,000 tn per year 1.5m tn per year 5tn per year 50tn per year 0.3m tn per year 4m tn per year Gold Crude Oil Source: Eurasia Capital estimates 8
  9. 9. Growth Story I: Kazakhstan 2002 GDP, US$bn GDP per capita, US$ KASE MrktCap, US$bn Banking assets, US$bn 2007 4.2x 105 5.5x 6,750 1.2 58x 70* 8 12x 97 370 10x 3,700 25 1,250 * $100bn 2008 Property, $/m2 residential retail 400 20x land 1,000 50x 8,000 50,000 9
  10. 10. Growth Story II: Qatar 1998 GDP, US$bn 10 GDP per capita, US$ 15,000 Qatar SE MktCap, US$bn Banking assets, US$bn Population, mn 2010 11x or 22% p.a. 5.5x 4 27x 11 12x 0.6 2.8x 111 82,000 104 133 1.7 10
  11. 11. Conclusions Economy Fastest growing economy in next decade (2010-2020) Drivers Investments, exports, wealth creation Industries Mining, banking, property, consumer Opportunities All asset classes, esp. local public equities Environment Democracy, political stability, pro-business government MONGOLIA Right Place and Right Time to Invest! 11
  12. 12. Eurasia Capital Eurasia Capital is a Hong Kong-based pan-regional investment bank with strong presence and focus in frontier markets in Eurasia Strong focus on Mongolia and Central Asia Team of 30 professionals with five offices in the region Pan-regional team provides full-fledged advisory and brokerage services to resource companies, private equity groups and hedge funds Advises on cross-border M&As and strategic investments in resources sector 12
  13. 13. Offices MONGOLIA Suite 65, 6th Floor Grand Office Center Jamiyangun Street 12, 12, st Khoroo 1 Sukhbaatar District Ulaanbaatar Tel: +976 7013 0078 Fax: +976 7013 0078 HONG KONG 33/F One International Finance Center, 1 Harbor View Street Central, Hong Kong Tel: +852 2824 8716 Fax: +852 2166 8999 www.eurasiac.com 13
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