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Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
Why fighter pilots run startups
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Why fighter pilots run startups

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  • 1. Why Fighter Pilots Run Startups<br />Steve Blank<br />Stanford - School of Engineering<br />U.C. Berkeley - Haas School Of Business<br />www.steveblank.com<br />Twitter: sgblank<br />
  • 2. Early-Stage Ventures<br />
  • 3. I Drew This<br />CustomerDiscovery<br />Company <br /> Building<br />CustomerValidation<br />Customer Creation<br />Pivot<br />
  • 4. I Called It:Customer Development<br />CustomerDiscovery<br />Company <br /> Building<br />CustomerValidation<br />Customer Creation<br />Pivot<br />
  • 5. I Wrote This<br />
  • 6. I Write a Blog <br />www.steveblank.com<br />
  • 7. Six Short Stories<br />
  • 8. Not All Startups Are Equal<br />
  • 9. Small Business<br />Startup<br />Small Business Startups<br />
  • 10. Small Business<br />Startup<br />- Business Model found<br />- Profitable business<br /><ul><li> Existing team</li></ul>&lt; $10M in revenue<br />Small Business Startups<br />
  • 11. Small Business<br />Startup<br />- Business Model found<br />- Profitable business<br /><ul><li> Existing team</li></ul>&lt; $10M in revenue<br />Small Business Startups<br /><ul><li>97% of all companies in Israel are small businesses</li></ul>http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/israel_small_business_0105.pdf<br />
  • 12. Small Business Startup:Internet Edition<br />Small Business<br />Startup<br />- Business Model found<br />- Profitable business<br /><ul><li> Existing team</li></ul>&lt; $10M in revenue<br /><ul><li>The Internet allows a new class of Small Businesses
  • 13. Not all businesses on the Internet are “Scalable Startups”</li></li></ul><li>Large Company Sustaining Innovation<br />Sustaining Innovation<br />Transition<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Large Company<br /><ul><li> Existing Market
  • 14. Incremental improvements</li></li></ul><li>Large Company Disruptive Innovation<br />New Division<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Disruptive Innovation<br /><ul><li> New Market
  • 15. New tech, customers, channels</li></li></ul><li>Scalable<br />Startup<br />Large Company<br />&gt;$100M/year<br />Scalable Startup<br />
  • 16. Scalable<br />Startup<br />Large Company<br />&gt;$100M/year<br /><ul><li>Total Available Market &gt; $500m
  • 17. Company can grow to $100m/year
  • 18. Business model found
  • 19. Focused on execution and process</li></ul>Scalable Startup<br />
  • 20. Scalable<br />Startup<br />Large Company<br />&gt;$100M/year<br /><ul><li>Total Available Market &gt; $500m
  • 21. Company can grow to $100m/year
  • 22. Business model found
  • 23. Focused on execution and process
  • 24. Typically requires “risk capital”</li></ul>Scalable Startup<br /><ul><li> In contrast a scalable startup is designed to grow big
  • 25. Typically needs venture (risk) capital
  • 26. What Silicon Valley means when they say “Startup”</li></li></ul><li>Very Different Startup Goals<br />Small Business<br />Startup<br />- Business Model found<br />- Profitable business<br /><ul><li> Existing team</li></ul>&lt; $10M<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Large Company<br /><ul><li> Total Available Market &gt; $500m
  • 27. Company can grow to $100m/year
  • 28. Business model found
  • 29. Focused on execution and process
  • 30. Typically requires “risk capital”</li></li></ul><li>Venture Firms Invest in Scalable Startups<br />Small Business<br />Startup<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Large Company<br />
  • 31. Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br /><ul><li>Business Model found
  • 32. i.e. Product/Market fit</li></ul>- Repeatable sales model<br />- Managers hired<br />What’s A Startup?<br />A Startup is the organization used to search for a scalable business model<br />
  • 33. What VC’s Don’t Tell You:The Transition<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Search<br />Build<br />Grow<br />
  • 34. What VC’s Don’t Tell You:The Transition – Founders Leave<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br /><ul><li>Founders depart
  • 35. Professional Mgmt
  • 36. Process
  • 37. Beginning of scale</li></li></ul><li>Plan versus Model<br />
  • 38. No Business Plan survives first contact with customers<br />
  • 39. So Search for a Business Model<br />
  • 40. The Search for a Business Model<br /><ul><li>A Business Plan is static
  • 41. A Business Model diagrams how a company creates, delivers and captures value – it’s dynamic
  • 42. Or in English: How a company makes money</li></li></ul><li>Emphasis On Hypotheses Testing<br />
  • 43. Startups Continually Pivot (Iterate)<br />
  • 44. Startups versus Companies<br />
  • 45. Startups Search and Pivot<br />The Search for the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br /><ul><li>Business Model found
  • 46. i.e. Product/Market fit</li></ul>- Repeatable sales model<br />- Managers hired<br />
  • 47. Startups Search, Companies Execute<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />The Search for the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />- Cash-flow breakeven<br />- Profitable<br />- Rapid scale<br />- New Senior Mgmt<br />~ 150 people<br /><ul><li>Business Model found
  • 48. Product/Market fit</li></ul>- Repeatable sales model<br />- Managers hired<br />
  • 49. Metrics Versus Accounting<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large<br />Company<br />Traditional Accounting<br /><ul><li>Balance Sheet
  • 50. Cash Flow Statement
  • 51. Income Statement</li></li></ul><li>Metrics Versus Accounting<br />The Search for the Business Model<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large<br />Company<br />Startup Metrics<br /><ul><li> Customer Acquisition Cost
  • 52. Viral coefficient
  • 53. Customer Lifetime Value
  • 54. Average Selling Price/Order Size
  • 55. Monthly burn rate
  • 56. etc. </li></ul>Traditional Accounting<br /><ul><li> Balance Sheet
  • 57. Cash Flow Statement
  • 58. Income Statement</li></li></ul><li>Customer Validation Versus Sales<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large<br />Company<br />Sales<br /><ul><li>Sales Organization
  • 59. Scalable
  • 60. Price List/Data Sheets
  • 61. Revenue Plan</li></li></ul><li>Customer Validation Versus Sales<br />The Search for the Business Model<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large<br />Company<br />Customer Validation<br /><ul><li> Early Adopters
  • 62. Pricing/Feature unstable
  • 63. Not yet repeatable
  • 64. “One-off’s”</li></ul>Sales<br /><ul><li> Sales Organization
  • 65. Scalable
  • 66. Price List/Data Sheets
  • 67. Revenue Plan</li></li></ul><li>Customer Development VersusProduct Management<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Product Management<br /><ul><li> Delivers MRD’s
  • 68. Feature Spec’s
  • 69. Competitive Analysis</li></li></ul><li>Customer Development Versus Product Management<br />The Search for the Business Model<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Product Management<br /><ul><li> Delivers MRD’s
  • 70. Feature Spec’s
  • 71. Competitive Analysis</li></ul>Customer Development<br /><ul><li> Hypothesis Testing
  • 72. Minimum Feature Set
  • 73. Pivots</li></li></ul><li>Engineering Versus Agile Development<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Engineering<br /><ul><li> Requirements Docs.
  • 74. Waterfall Development
  • 75. QA
  • 76. Tech Pubs</li></li></ul><li>Engineering Versus Agile Development<br />The Search for the Business Model<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Engineering<br /><ul><li> Requirements Docs.
  • 77. Waterfall Development
  • 78. QA
  • 79. Tech Pubs</li></ul>Agile Development<br /><ul><li> Continuous Deployment
  • 80. Continuous Learning
  • 81. Self Organizing Teams
  • 82. Minimum Feature Set
  • 83. Pivots</li></li></ul><li>Startups Model, Companies Plan<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br /><ul><li> Plan describes “knowns”
  • 84. Known features for line extensions
  • 85. Known customers/markets
  • 86. Known business model</li></li></ul><li>Startups Model, Companies Plan<br />The Search for the Business Model<br />The Execution of the Business Model<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br /><ul><li>Unknown customer needs
  • 87. Unknown feature set
  • 88. Unknown business model
  • 89. Model found by iteration
  • 90. Plan describes “knowns”
  • 91. Known features for line extensions
  • 92. Known customers/markets
  • 93. Known business model</li></li></ul><li>Startups Don’t Last Forever<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />- Cash-flow breakeven<br />- Profitable<br />- Rapid scale<br />- New Senior Mgmt<br />~ 150 people<br /><ul><li> Business Model found
  • 94. Product/Market fit</li></ul>- Repeatable sales model<br />- Managers hired<br />You failif you remain a startup!<br />
  • 95. Customer Risk Versus Technology Risk<br />
  • 96. Industry Affects Type of Risk<br /><ul><li>Web 2.0
  • 97. Enterprise Software
  • 98. Enterprise Hardware
  • 99. Communication Hardware
  • 100. Communication Software
  • 101. Consumer Electronics
  • 102. Game Software
  • 103. Semiconductors
  • 104. Electronic Design Automation
  • 105. Cleantech
  • 106. Med Dev / Health Care
  • 107. Life Science / Biotech
  • 108. Personalized Medicine</li></ul>Large Company<br />Transition<br />
  • 109. Technology Known,Customers Unknown<br /><ul><li>Web 2.0
  • 110. Enterprise Software
  • 111. Enterprise Hardware
  • 112. Communication Hardware
  • 113. Communication Software
  • 114. Consumer Electronics
  • 115. Game Software
  • 116. Semiconductors
  • 117. Electronic Design Automation
  • 118. Cleantech
  • 119. Med Dev / Health Care
  • 120. Life Science / Biotech
  • 121. Personalized Medicine</li></ul>Customer Risk<br />Large Company<br />Transition<br />
  • 122. Technology Unknown, Customers Known<br /><ul><li>Web 2.0
  • 123. Enterprise Software
  • 124. Enterprise Hardware
  • 125. Communication Hardware
  • 126. Communication Software
  • 127. Consumer Electronics
  • 128. Game Software
  • 129. Semiconductors
  • 130. Electronic Design Automation
  • 131. Cleantech
  • 132. Med Dev / Health Care
  • 133. Life Science / Biotech
  • 134. Personalized Medicine</li></ul>Large Company<br />Transition<br />Technology Risk<br />
  • 135. Technology and Customers Unknown<br /><ul><li>Web 2.0
  • 136. Enterprise Software
  • 137. Enterprise Hardware
  • 138. Communication Hardware
  • 139. Communication Software
  • 140. Consumer Electronics
  • 141. Game Software
  • 142. Semiconductors
  • 143. Electronic Design Automation
  • 144. Cleantech
  • 145. Med Dev / Health Care
  • 146. Life Science / Biotech
  • 147. Personalized Medicine</li></ul>Customer and <br />Technology Risk<br />
  • 148. Rewards Differ by Industry<br /><ul><li>Web 2.0
  • 149. Enterprise Software
  • 150. Enterprise Hardware
  • 151. Communication Hardware
  • 152. Communication Software
  • 153. Consumer Electronics
  • 154. Game Software
  • 155. Semiconductors
  • 156. Electronic Design Automation
  • 157. Cleantech
  • 158. Med Dev / Health Care
  • 159. Life Science / Biotech
  • 160. Personalized Medicine
  • 161. Huge payoff in biotech for solving technology problem
  • 162. In other industries you’re giving away your hard work</li></ul>Technology Risk<br />
  • 163. Rewards Differ by Industry<br /><ul><li>Web 2.0
  • 164. Enterprise Software
  • 165. Enterprise Hardware
  • 166. Communication Hardware
  • 167. Communication Software
  • 168. Consumer Electronics
  • 169. Game Software
  • 170. Semiconductors
  • 171. Electronic Design Automation
  • 172. Cleantech
  • 173. Med Dev / Health Care
  • 174. Life Science / Biotech
  • 175. Personalized Medicine</li></ul>Customer Risk<br /><ul><li>No payoff in Web 2.0 until you solve the customer risk</li></ul>Technology Risk<br />
  • 176. How Do Startups Search For A Business Model?<br /><ul><li> The Search is called Customer Development
  • 177. The Implementation is called Agile Development</li></li></ul><li>The Lean Startup<br /><ul><li> The Search is called Customer Development
  • 178. The Implementation is called Agile Development</li></li></ul><li>Customer Development<br />
  • 179. Solving For Customer Risk:Customer Development<br />
  • 180. Solving For Customer Risk:Customer Development<br />Get the Hell Out of the Building<br />
  • 181. Solving For Customer Risk:Customer Development<br />Get the Hell Out of the Building<br />Country<br />
  • 182. More startups fail from a lack of customers than from a failure of product development<br />
  • 183. Then why do we have:<br />process to manage product development?<br />
  • 184. Then why do we have:<br />process to manage product development?<br />no process to manage customer development?<br />
  • 185. Because:<br />The smarter the founders the more likely, “I know what customers want”<br />Usually wrong<br />Usually come from military intelligence<br />Startups are not an intelligence test<br />
  • 186. Product Development Model<br />Concept/Seed Round<br />Product Dev.<br />Alpha/Beta Test<br />Launch/<br />1st Ship<br />
  • 187. Tradition – Hire Marketing<br />Concept/Seed Round<br />Product Dev.<br />Alpha/Beta Test<br />Launch/<br />1st Ship<br />- Create Demand<br />- Launch Event<br />- “Branding”<br />- Hire PR Agency<br />- Early Buzz<br /><ul><li> Create Marcom </li></ul> Materials<br />- Create Positioning<br />Marketing<br />
  • 188. Tradition – Hire Sales<br />Concept/Seed Round<br />Product Dev.<br />Alpha/Beta Test<br />Launch/<br />1st Ship<br />- Create Demand<br />- Launch Event<br />- “Branding”<br />- Hire PR Agency<br />- Early Buzz<br /><ul><li> Create Marcom </li></ul> Materials<br />- Create Positioning<br />Marketing<br /><ul><li> Build Sales Organization
  • 189. Hire Sales VP
  • 190. Hire 1st Sales Staff</li></ul>Sales<br />
  • 191. Tradition – Hire Bus Development<br />Concept<br />Product Dev.<br />Alpha/Beta Test<br />Launch/<br />1st Ship<br />- Create Demand<br />- Launch Event<br />- “Branding”<br />- Hire PR Agency<br />- Early Buzz<br /><ul><li> Create Marcom </li></ul> Materials<br />- Create Positioning<br />Marketing<br /><ul><li> Build Sales Channel / Distribution
  • 192. Hire Sales VP
  • 193. Pick distribution Channel</li></ul>Sales<br />Business <br />Development<br /><ul><li> Hire First Bus Dev
  • 194. Do deals for FCS</li></li></ul><li>Tradition – Hire Engineering<br />Concept<br />Product Dev.<br />Alpha/Beta Test<br />Launch/<br />1st Ship<br />- Create Demand<br />- Launch Event<br />- “Branding”<br />- Hire PR Agency<br />- Early Buzz<br /><ul><li> Create Marcom </li></ul> Materials<br />- Create Positioning<br />Marketing<br /><ul><li> Build Sales Channel / Distribution
  • 195. Hire Sales VP
  • 196. Pick distribution Channel</li></ul>Sales<br />Business <br />Development<br /><ul><li> Hire First Bus Dev
  • 197. Do deals for FCS</li></ul>Engineering<br /><ul><li> Write MRD
  • 198. Waterfall
  • 199. Q/A
  • 200. Tech Pubs</li></li></ul><li>Product Development<br />Concept/Bus. Plan<br />Product Dev.<br />Alpha/Beta Test<br />Launch/1st Ship<br />+<br />CustomerDevelopment<br />Company<br />Building<br />CustomerDiscovery<br />CustomerValidation<br />Customer Creation<br />Customer Development<br />
  • 201. Customer Discovery<br />CustomerDiscovery<br />CustomerValidation<br />Company<br />Building<br />CustomerCreation<br />Stop selling, start listening<br />Test your hypotheses<br />Continuous Discovery<br />
  • 202. Customer Validation<br />CustomerDiscovery<br />CustomerValidation<br />Customer Creation<br />Company<br />Building<br />Pivot<br /><ul><li>Repeatable and scalable business model?
  • 203. Passionate earlyvangelists?
  • 204. Pivot back to Discovery if no customers</li></li></ul><li>The Pivot<br /><ul><li> The heart of Customer Development
  • 205. Iteration without crisis
  • 206. Fast, agile and opportunistic</li></li></ul><li>So What Does Engineering Do?<br />
  • 207. Traditional Product DevelopmentUnit of progress: Advance to Next Stage<br />Waterfall<br />Requirements<br />Design<br />Problem: known<br />Solution: known<br />Implementation<br />Verification<br />Maintenance<br />Source: Eric Rieshttp://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com<br />
  • 208. When the Customer Problem is Known<br />“Product Owner” or <br />in-house customer <br />Problem: Known<br />Solution: Unknown<br />Source: Eric Rieshttp://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com<br />
  • 209. Agile - Customer Problem is KnownUnit of progress: a line of working code<br />“Product Owner” or <br />in-house customer <br />Problem: Known<br />Solution: Unknown<br />Source: Eric Rieshttp://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com<br />
  • 210. When the Customer Problem is Unknown<br />Problem: Unknown<br />Solution: Unknown<br />Source: Eric Rieshttp://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com<br />
  • 211. Customer Problem is UnknownUnit of progress: learning about customers<br />Problem: Unknown<br />Solution: Unknown<br />Source: Eric Rieshttp://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com<br />
  • 212. Leadership Versus Management<br />
  • 213. Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Leadership Versus Management<br />
  • 214. Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Leadership Versus Management<br />
  • 215. Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Leadership Versus Management<br />Search<br />
  • 216. Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large<br />Company<br />Leadership Versus Management<br />Build<br />Search<br />
  • 217. Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large<br />Company<br />Leadership Versus Management<br />Build<br />Grow<br />Search<br />
  • 218. Why Fighter Pilots Run Startups<br />
  • 219. No Surprises in an Airline<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Scheduled Airline<br /><ul><li> Scheduled
  • 220. Routine
  • 221. Burn rate preplanned</li></li></ul><li>Air-Air Combat is Constant Surprise<br />Scalable<br />Startup<br />Transition<br />Large Company<br />Air-Air Combat<br /><ul><li> Uncertain environment
  • 222. Rapid, unanticipated changes
  • 223. Changes lead to disorientation
  • 224. Burn rate (time, fuel, bullets, $’s)limits window of opportunity</li></li></ul><li>Observe, Orient, Decide and Act:OODA Loop<br />John Boyd<br />
  • 225. Observe, Orient, Decide and Act:OODA Loop<br /><ul><li>Agility requires continuous interactions with the environment
  • 226. Winning requires constant assessment of change and ways to mitigate risk
  • 227. Iterating faster than competitors yields substantial advantage</li></ul> = Victory<br />
  • 228. 86<br />Boyd’s OODA Loop<br />Observe<br />Orient<br />Decide<br />Act<br />ImplicitGuidance&amp; Control<br />ImplicitGuidance&amp; Control<br />UnfoldingCircumstances<br />CulturalTraditions<br />Observations<br />GeneticHeritage<br />Decision(Hypothesis)<br />Analyses &amp;Synthesis<br />Action(Test)<br />FeedForward<br />FeedForward<br />FeedForward<br />NewInformation<br />PreviousExperience<br />OutsideInformation<br />InteractionWithEnvironment<br />Interaction w/Environment<br />
  • 229. Customer Development = OODA Loop<br />Observe<br />Orient<br />Act<br />Decide <br />
  • 230. OODA Loop is Not an Intelligence Test<br /><ul><li>It’s about Agility
  • 231. It’s about Resilience
  • 232. It’s not about winning arguments inside the company
  • 233. Fighters pilots vs. military intelligence</li></li></ul><li>Warfare (Startups) Changes Forever<br />
  • 234. Thanks<br />www.steveblank.com<br />

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