Space Evaders Hacking for Diplomacy week 8


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Space Evaders Hacking for Diplomacy week 8

  1. Space Evaders Project Steer Clear Increased use of space is leading to much higher probability of collisions and a rapidly expanding volume of debris. This propagation of collisions has the potential to become a Kessler cascade that would render the major orbital regions unusable in the future. Our team is using data methods to find ways to prevent debris-causing collisions. 76 Sponsor Amber Charlesworth Mentor Pablo Quintanilla Mentor Bart Burstein Kate Boudreau Dave Gabler Tyler Dammann Matthew Kaseman 12 in total this week Interviews
  2. Where we are Main idea from last week: crowd source size/shape data (looking shaky) vs. New idea from last night: Debris footprint index (feeling optimistic)
  3. Debris footprint index - Modeled on carbon footprint - Raise awareness of debris causes - Give regulators/treaty negotiators a starting point Similarities to environmental pollution - All users claim they are responsible - Nobody actually knows who creates the most debris - Bad actors are not currently known or punished - Good actors are not currently known or rewarded
  4. Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results Orbital/ Debris academic expert Size / shape data will improve the CA warning system “How much can this MVP improve current modelling?” “Orders of magnitude” Need to refine, but on the right path Amateur Astronomers We can crowdsource size/shape data acquisition Ask for photos of small objects in LEO Equipment requirements are not met (telescopes/motors) Institution Astronomers We can crowdsource size/shape data acquisition Ask for photos of small objects in LEO Researchers now focus on light glint (Many of them) Series photos needed for tumbling Customer Discovery Bottom Line: This info will help, but crowdsourcing will require new infrastructure for amateurs
  5. Key Activities Crowdsourced data viability: - Determine telescope specification requirements - Determine price per unit - Determine number of units required - Which beneficiary will finance it? - Identify worldwide stewards who would receive and use the telescopes Alternate sources of data: - Government telescopes can help? - Feasibility of space-based system - Cost/beneficiary willingness to pay? Debris targeting: - Determine how to provide “orders” that include location/time information Usable output: - Determine how to process optical results into usable data for propagation models
  6. Key Activities Data quality: - High accuracy - Rapid response to add new debris - Quality control for data inputs - Collaborate with satellite ope Integration - Hands-on approach with propagation modelers Debris targeting: - Determine how to provide “orders” that include location/time information Usable output: - Determine how to process optical results into usable data for propagation models
  7. Critical Resources Human Financial Physical Intellectual - Astronomers incentivized to spend time imaging debris - Propagation modelers include our data and test effectiveness (AFRL, Universities, etc) - Telescope acquisition and maintenance - Database creation and maintenance - Compensation for contributors? - JSpOC catalog - Capable telescopes / motors - Servers for information - Academic models - Accountability mechanism for operators who don’t share information - Incentive for astronomers and operators to contribute
  8. Key Partners Partner They provide? We provide? JSpOC / JFCC Access to current data about objects in orbit, modeling ability Improved data Satellite Operators Size/shape data of current and future satellites Improved conjunction warnings Amateur telescope operators Images of debris objects in orbit Accomplish social good; Potential financial compensation FAA / FCC / NOAA Size/shape data sharing requirements for satellite operators Improved safety in space; more control of debris outcomes Academics / AFRL Inclusion in propagation models; Hypothesis testing Rich new data set
  9. Deployment AFRL validation Acquire satellite data Acquire debris data Integrate with JSpOC Provide data to academics Improve models Insight: Improved atmospheric models will improve the ability to gain size and shape information Correspond with JSpOC Talk with astronomers Collaborate w/ government to create sharing requirements Locate existing strategic telescope / motor combinations
  10. ty; Mission Model Canvas Beneficiaries Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs Buy-In/Support Deployment Value PropositionKey Activities Key Resources Key Partners █ JSpOC / JFCC - Amateur telescope operators - FAA to provide data from applications - FCC to provide on- orbit enforcement Observation: -Prioritization -Location Data: -Receive data -Develop size/shape information -Distribute information in usable format - Capable telescopes/ motors - JSpOC catalog ███ Improved sharing of data (both directions). ██ Low cost methods to prevent losses to very expensive, hard to replace items in space ██ Increase ability to predict accurate collisions and assess orbital risk ██ Reduce “Boy who Cried Wolf” effect █ Commercial willing to supply data and follow best practices. █ JFCC Space willing to update propagation model - Locate telescope / motor combos at strategic locations - Incentivize contributions - Collaborate w/ FAA / FCC to put size / shape sharing rqmts in place ►MJ: Needs accurate baseline data to build basic scientific data accuracy ►DM: Needs to reduce nuisance messages and become an indispensable source of factual data ►VV//DL: Need to eliminate the uncertainty of conjunction warnings - Telescope and motor acquisition / shipping to sites - Incentives to observers - Database management - Improve confidence in SSA info to the point that maneuver decisions are data based, not politics based. - Frequency of JSpOC CAs decreases as models are improved - Taxonomy of objects in orbit created
  11. MVP: Last Week
  12. Products & Services Customer Jobs John, satellite operator for a commercial space-based company. Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers ►Many Conjunction Alerts ►Coordination with other operators █ Minimize risk, fuel cost, and time investment related to conjunction risks █ Improved understanding of Conjunction Alerts █ Reduce time to make contact with other operators - Easy to access information - Size and shape data about other satellites ►Complete profitable satellite operations. - Accomplish mission -Avoid collisions Customer Archetype (Satellite Operator) ● 44-year-old space industry veteran with 15+ years in the industry ● Hired to monitor/adjust satellite position to ensure customer needs can be met. ● Very passionate about his job ● Enjoys problem-solving, dislikes wasted time ● Wants to be a good citizen of space Space Evaders: Value Proposition Canvas
  13. Space Evaders Questions?
  14. MVP: Composite Debris Footprint Abstract: formula to assess the composite cost that operators’ debris causes. Required elements: -Danger of current debris orbit based on current/future use of nearby orbits -Predictability and trackability of debris -Tendency of debris to further break up -Debris mass and damage potential -Time debris will remain on orbit Output: -Comparable number to represent total debris by operator or object
  15. Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results Private SSA consultant JSpOC could improve their catalog with size/shape data Show MVP, discuss usefulness of data Data could be useful. It is not currently used by JSpOC due to legacy equipment considerations that may no longer apply. Orbital/ Debris academic expert There are a large number of people whose CA models would be improved by size / shape data. Present MVP, “how much could this improve current modelling?” Data could improve modeling by “orders of magnitude”, but additional shape classification and atmospheric information would be required to take full advantage Private GEO Satellite Operator Accurate size/ shape data could promote best practices among satellite operators. Show the MVP discuss possibilities of improved modelling and current/ future decision making. Data would likely not change decision making process “Do Not Move” as standard policy. Customer Discovery
  16. Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results Amateur Astronomers Size / shape information can be found using ground- based technology available to the public. Discuss requirements and capabilities to get the information in the MVP This level of resolution is generally out of reach for amatuer astronomers, due to equipment and tracking limitations. Institution Astronomers Size / shape information can be found using ground- based technology available to research institutions. Discuss requirements and capabilities to get the information in the MVP Light glint is seen as a more useful source of information than imagery, serious collection would be a major undertaking that requires a series of images and is beyond this institution's capabilities. Customer Discovery
  17. Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results FAA Official The government collects size and shape data during the process, and would be willing to share it. Ask the official about registration data and whether the FAA is allowed to share the information. Size / shape data is required for registration, but is proprietary. No sharing possible. Non-US private space operator / early adopter Satellite operators would be willing to share the size / shape data of their satellites. “Who would you be willing to share physical details of your satellites with, and what would it take?” Would be willing to share, but only to a responsible party. Would prefer a UN instead of US organization. Customer Discovery