Supra Sensor NSF Final Presentation

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  • This is what the program taught us
  • Piggyback on infrastructure
  • Hypothesis (notice how vague)
  • Capital investment resistance
  • Hypothesis (notice how vague)
  • Supra Sensor NSF Final Presentation

    1. NO3- Macronutrient sensors enabling precision agriculture Darren Johnson Calden Carroll Bruce BranchaudContact Counter: 103 Principal Investigator Entrepreneurial Lead MentorGroup 6
    2. Nitrate Monitoring Tiling or vaporization Fertilized zone (3-12 inches) Drivers: • Feed 7 billion people Groundwater seepage • Double production by 2050 • Decrease environmental damageScientific American, Nov 2011
    3. What’s Being Done? • All farmers do soil sampling and lab analysis – 1-2 week turn around • Fertilized through irrigation: “fertigation” • U.S. average lost N: 30% of applied *Real-time soil moisture monitoring increased yields = $43-$81/acre with 25% reduction in irrigation frequency
    4. The Ecosystem Gov’t subsidies Water systems Planting/tilling/harvest Farmers Heavy equipment Hungry folks or Seed cars banks, Ag-Bio $$Current Generation
    5. IT The Ecosystem Gov’t subsidies Water systems Planting/tilling/harvest Farmers Heavy equipment Hungry folks or Seed cars banks, Ag-Bio Regulatory fees $$Next Generation
    6. IT The Ecosystem Gov’tsubsidies Water systems Nutrient management Planting/tilling/harvest Farmers Heavy equipment Hungry folks or Seed cars banks, Ag-Bio Regulatory fees $$ Mitigate fines
    7. How the Market Works? OEM Large farm USDA/EPA Small farm
    8. SupraSensor Technologies Split: Agriculture Iteration: 2Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Farmers waste • Exclusive or • Distributors of technology development resources on semi-exclusive large-scale, distributors over- licensing high-tech • Manufacture fertilization: agreements agricultural• Electronic devices real-time with equipment device monitoring distributors manufacturers remedies this Key Resources Channels • Electronic• Engineering • Farmers spend • OEM device • Engineering partners most of their distributors of manufacturers partners waking hours devices• Process in field (see • Catalog sales • Composition of chemistry DST). of sensor matter Automation molecules via protection remedies this manufacturersCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • 1x sales of sensor devices• Assembly of sensor devices • Recurring sales of disposable sensor membrane components
    9. Our First Experiment • Hypothesis: Science shows precision agriculture increases yields/profits. Farmers care.
    10. Research! Hermiston Growers Riverpoint FarmsBlue River
    11. Our First Experiment • Hypothesis: Science shows that precision agriculture increases yields/profits. Farmers care. Hesitant “yes”; restricted to large farms, precision farms or low cost to small farmers
    12. Our Delineation By Automation Automation Yield over small savings Small savings over yield Garden 100 acres 1000 acres 10,000 acres
    13. Nitrate Market: High-tech Farms SAM: $1.5B/yr TAM: $6 B/yr Assumptions: Target Market: $50-75M/yr >100K systems 25K pivots w/ Assumptions: 3-5% licensing worldwide 1 sensor/acre Recurring consumable costs (125 sensors/pivot) would add to revenue
    14. Nitrate Market: High-tech Farms SAM: $1.5B/yr TAM: $6 B/yr Assumptions: Target Market: $50-75M/yr >100K systems 25K pivots w/ Assumptions: 3-5% licensing worldwide 1 sensor/acre Recurring consumable costs (125 sensors/pivot) would add to revenue This seemed small….
    15. Experiment 2 • Hypothesis: Both large, precision farms and small, high-value farms would benefit from macronutrient management. – False. Keywords: biodynamics, economy of scale
    16. Flowerdale FarmsResearch! Highbush berry farmsFall Creek Nursery
    17. Experiment 2 • Hypothesis: Both large, precision farms and small, high-value farms would benefit from macronutrient management. – False. Keywords: biodynamics, economy of scale • True! Blueberry farms pay way, way more for fertilizer than do corn farms. – $6.50/acre suddenly becomes >$24/acre
    18. Our Delineation by Size and Automation Automation Yield AND savings Small savings over yield Garden 100 acres 1000 acres 10,000 acres
    19. Customer Discovery via PossiblePartners/CompetitorsPlant/Soil Health gThrive
    20. What We Learned • Hypothesis: Farmers buy equipment to improve efficiency and manage farm activities – Farmers don’t buy things. • Why are the successful companies service- oriented? – It competes with an upfront cost of only 100s of dollars.
    21. Our Delineation by Management Practice Automation Yield AND savings Small savings over yield Garden 100 acres 1000 acres 10,000 acres Small, high-value = invest time Large, automated = need in management assistance in management
    22. New (Confusing) Model: Service Provider Product Money OEM Nutrient Data Large farm Us Small farm USDA/EPA Licensing/sales
    23. New (Confusing) Model: Service Provider Product Money OEM Nutrient Data Large farm Product Us Small farm Service USDA/EPA Licensing/sales
    24. SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 8Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve • Exclusive or technology development profits through • High-density, semi-exclusive distributors • Manufacture resource high value devices leasing optimization crop farmers • Data analysis agreements• Engineering • Service • Facilitate • Large row crop partners incentives • Lower contracts farmers operating• Process Key Resources costs Channels • Wastewater chemistry • Composition of • OEM equipment treatment matter • Lower DEQ manufacturers companies• Sensor device protection costs and manufacturers associated • Direct sales • Relationships penalties • Extension• Extension with regulatory Services agents agenciesCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • Leasing and installation contracts• Assembly of sensor devices • Regulatory incentives• Licensing of other sensor technology
    25. Macronutrient Solution Market SAM: $4.5B/yr TAM: $79 B/yr All direct nitrate fertigated Target Market: $2.1B/yr US Ag data crops Farms >150 acres Assumptions: (40% of irrigated US farmland) NOT in nitrate capped zones
    26. Extension Agents: Key Partners for Growth Who? County agricultural resource officers (USDA) Why? Overwhelmingly positive response from agents Also, they act as marketers and advocates. Cost? With agents, nothing. Barriers? Exclusivity in community, tech adoption fears (we need test beds)
    27. Extension Agents: Key Partners for Growth Who? County agricultural resource officers (USDA) Why? Overwhelmingly positive response from agents Also, they act as marketers and advocates. Cost? With agents, nothing. Barriers? Exclusivity in community, tech adoption fears (we need test beds)
    28. Pivot Timeline • Automated HUGE farms and biotechProduct – Gillette model • Automated farms and high value farms – Tractor model • Farmers don’t buy things. • DEQ regulators and USDA incentivesService – ESCO model – Farmers aren’t fans of regulators
    29. SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 9Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments • Design & • Improve • Exclusive or• Engineering development profits through • High-density, semi-exclusive partners • Manufacture resource high value devices leasing optimization crop farmers • Data analysis agreements• Sensor device • Service • Facilitate • Large row crop manufacturers incentives • Lower contracts farmers operating• Extension Key Resources costs Channels • Wastewater agents • Composition of • OEM equipment treatment matter • Lower DEQ manufacturers companies protection costs and associated • Direct sales • Relationships penalties • Extension with regulatory Services agenciesCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • Leasing and installation contracts• Assembly of sensor devices • Regulatory incentives• Licensing of other sensor technology
    30. Economics of TSP OperationIncentives: Best case scenario $45.89/acre Worst case: $9.65/acre or state dependent 25% cost coverage Install sensors, provide service 400 acres, 4 soil Us Pay for 2-3 year contract service monthly types: 8 sensors Small farm $3860 for 400 acre Average $10.40 in N- nutrient management fertilizer lost to groundwater per acre $1K/sensor less incentive = $4140 to USDA/EPA recover in contract
    31. Economics of TSP OperationIncentives: Best case scenario $45.89/acre Worst case: $9.65/acre or state dependent 25% cost coverage Install sensors, provide service 400 acres, 4 soil Us Pay for 2-3 year contract service monthly types: 8 sensors Small farm Onion Case Study (44K acres): $3860 for 400 acre Cost: DAP - $700/ton + $25/a nutrient management Rate: 280lb/a for 400a farm $1K/sensor less = $39K incentive = $4140 to USDA/EPA recover in contract 30% Improvement: $13K saved Charge: $6K/season = $660K/yr contract revenue
    32. First: To Do- Finalize MOU with earlyvangelist, develop robust prototypesThen:- Build county extension agent relationships- Use federal incentives to expand to new farms- Extend data to new agents
    33. SupraSensor Technologies Split: Agriculture Iteration: 2Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve yield • Exclusive or • Distributors of technology development through semi-exclusive large-scale, distributors resource licensing high-tech • Manufacture optimization agreements agricultural• Electronic devices with equipment device • Lower runoff distributors manufacturers and associated Key Resources costs Channels • Electronic• Engineering • OEM device • Engineering partners partners • Automation distributors of manufacturers Real-time devices• Process monitoring • Catalog sales • Composition of chemistry and remote of sensor matter protection management molecules via manufacturersCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • 1x sales of sensor devices• Assembly of sensor devices • Recurring sales of disposable sensor membrane components
    34. SupraSensor Technologies Split: Agriculture Iteration: 3Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve yield • Exclusive or • Distributors of technology development profits through semi-exclusive large-scale, distributors resource licensing high-tech • Manufacture optimization agreements agricultural• Engineering devices with equipment partners • Lower runoff distributors and associated• Process Key Resources costs Channels • Electronic chemistry • Composition of • OEM device matter • Real-time equipment manufacturers• Electronic protection monitoring • Catalog sales device and remote of sensor manufacturers management molecules via manufacturersCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • 1x sales of sensor devices• Assembly of sensor devices • Recurring sales of disposable sensor membrane components
    35. SupraSensor Technologies Split: Agriculture Iteration: 4Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve • Exclusive or • Distributors technology development profits through semi-exclusive of large-scale, distributors resource licensing high-tech • Manufacture optimization agreements agricultural• Engineering devices equipment partners • Lower runoff and associated• Process Key Resources costs Channels • High-density, chemistry • Composition of • OEM high value matter • Real-time equipment crop farmers• Electronic protection monitoring manufacturers Sensor device and remote • Piggyback on • Water QA manufacturers management existing sensor facilities? companiesCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • 1x sales of sensor devices• Assembly of sensor devices • Recurring sales of disposable sensor• Licensing of other sensor technology membrane components
    36. SupraSensor Technologies Split: Agriculture Iteration: 5Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve • Exclusive or • Distributors technology development profits through semi-exclusive of large-scale, distributors resource licensing high-tech • Manufacture optimization agreements agricultural• Engineering devices equipment partners • Lower runoff and associated• Process Key Resources costs Channels • High-density, chemistry • Composition of • OEM high value matter • Real-time equipment crop farmers• Sensor device protection monitoring manufacturers manufacturers and remote • Piggyback on • Water QA management existing sensor facilities?• Regulatory companies agenciesCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • 1x sales of sensor devices• Assembly of sensor devices • Recurring sales of disposable sensor• Licensing of other sensor technology membrane components
    37. SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 6Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve • Exclusive or • Distributors technology development profits through semi-exclusive of large-scale, distributors resource licensing high-tech • Manufacture optimization agreements agricultural• Engineering devices equipment partners • Data mining • Lower runoff costs and• Process Key Resources associated Channels • High-density, chemistry • Composition of hassle • OEM high value matter equipment crop farmers• Sensor device protection manufacturers manufacturers • Piggyback on existing sensor• Regulatory companies agenciesCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • 1x sales of sensor devices• Assembly of sensor devices • Recurring sales of disposable sensor• Licensing of other sensor technology membrane components
    38. SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 7Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve • Exclusive or • Distributors of technology development profits through large-scale, semi-exclusive distributors • Manufacture resource high-tech devices licensing optimization agricultural • Data mining leasing equipment• Engineering agreements • Facilitate partners incentives • Lower • High-density, operating high value• Process Key Resources costs Channels crop farmers chemistry • Composition of • OEM equipment matter • Lower DEQ manufacturers • Large row crop• Sensor device protection costs and • Licensing to farmers manufacturers associated existing sensor companies • Relationships hassle • Ag wastewater• Regulatory with regulatory treatment agencies agencies companiesCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • 1x sales of sensor devices• Assembly of sensor devices • Recurring sales of disposable sensor• Licensing of other sensor technology membrane components • Leasing and installation contracts
    39. SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 8Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve • Exclusive or technology development profits through • High-density, semi-exclusive distributors • Manufacture resource high value devices leasing optimization crop farmers • Data analysis agreements• Engineering • Service • Facilitate • Large row crop partners incentives • Lower contracts farmers operating• Process Key Resources costs Channels • Wastewater chemistry • Composition of • OEM equipment treatment matter • Lower DEQ manufacturers companies• Sensor device protection costs and manufacturers associated • Direct sales • Relationships penalties• Extension with regulatory agents agenciesCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • Leasing and installation contracts• Assembly of sensor devices • Regulatory incentives• Licensing of other sensor technology
    40. SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 9Key Key Value Customer CustomerPartners Activities Propositions Relationships Segments• Agricultural • Design & • Improve • Exclusive or technology development profits through • High-density, semi-exclusive distributors • Manufacture resource high value devices leasing optimization crop farmers • Data analysis agreements• Engineering • Service • Facilitate • Large row crop partners incentives • Lower contracts farmers operating• Process Key Resources costs Channels • Wastewater chemistry • Composition of • OEM equipment treatment matter • Lower DEQ manufacturers companies• Sensor device protection costs and manufacturers associated • Direct sales • Relationships penalties • Extension• Extension with regulatory Services agents agenciesCost Structures Revenue Streams• Manufacturing of sensor components • Patent royalties (physical device and membrane) • Leasing and installation contracts• Assembly of sensor devices • Regulatory incentives• Licensing of other sensor technology

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