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    Phoenix Solar Company Presentation Phoenix Solar Company Presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Phoenix Solar AG Company Presentation January 2010
    • Disclaimer The content of this presentation is solely for information purposes and is not intended to constitute a recommendation for investment or a solicitation to subscribe or an offer to buy or sell securities of the company. Phoenix Solar AG shall undertake no liability whatsoever for any loss in connection with this presentation or the information contained therein. This also applies particularly to any eventual loss in connection with the shares of Phoenix Solar AG. This document contains forward-looking statements on future developments which are based on management’s current assessment. Words such as “anticipate”, “assume”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “can/could”, “plan”, “project”, “forecast”, “should”, and similar terms are indicative of such forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which are mainly outside the sphere of influence of Phoenix Solar AG, but which have an impact on the business activities, the success, the business strategy and the results. These risks and factors of uncertainty include, for instance, climatic change, changes in the state subsidisation of photovoltaics, the introduction of competitor products or technologies of other companies, the development of the planned internationalisation of business activities, fierce competition as well as rapid technological change in the photovoltaic market. If one of these or other factors of uncertainty or risks should occur, or if the assumptions underlying the statements should prove incorrect, the actual results may diverge substantially from the results in these statements or implicit indications. Phoenix Solar AG does not have the intention nor will it undertake any obligation to realise forward-looking statements on an ongoing basis or at a later point in time as this is entirely dependent on circumstances prevailing on the day of their release. In some countries the dissemination of this presentation and the information contained therein may be restricted or prohibited under the law. This presentation is therefore expressly not intended for persons resident in legal systems under which such an offer or solicitation is not permissible, or for persons for whom such an offer or invitation would constitute a breach of the law. 2
    • Table of Contents 1. Phoenix Solar at a Glance 2. Company Profile 3. Module Supply 4. Financial Parameters 5. Phoenix Share - SonnenAktie® 6. Investment Highlights 3
    • Phoenix Solar at a Glance Founded Nov. 1999, headquartered near Munich, global workforce >300 One of the leading globally active PV system integrators (3 continents, 8 countries) CAGR revenue: 78% Continuously profitable since 2004 Stock-listed since November 2004, TecDAX-listed since March 2008 First mover in PV thin-film technology, holding 12% world market share in 2007 and 10% in 2008* Covered by 22 banks, further coverage under preparation * Source: Solar Outlook (Navigant Consulting), Phoenix analysis 4
    • Worldwide Company Locations in 8 Countries and 3 Continents Phoenix Solar AG, Germany (Since Nov. 1999) Phoenix Solar SAS, France (Since Sept. 2009) Phoenix Solar, Phoenix Solar USA S.L., Spain (coming H1 2010) (Since Apr. 2006) Phoenix Solar Phoenix Solar S.r.l., Italy (Since July 2006) Pte Ltd, Singapore (Since Dec. 2006) Phoenix Solar E.P.E., Greece (Since June 2008) Phoenix Solar Phoenix Solar Pty Ltd, L.L.C, Oman Australia (Since Dec. 2009) (Since July 2008) All 100% owned subsidiaries, except Phoenix Solar Singapore (75%) and Phoenix Solar Oman (70%) 5
    • Table of Contents 1. Phoenix Solar at a Glance 2. Company Profile 3. Module Supply 4. Financial Parameters 5. Phoenix Share - SonnenAktie® 6. Investment Highlights 6
    • Business Model International Manufacturers Solar Modules BOS-Components • Crystalline • Inverters • Thin-film • Mounting Systems • Cables System integration ices Serv se Sal Turn-key installation Segment Segment Solar Power Plants Components & Systems Project Investors International Customers Resellers 7
    • Offering to the Customer Segments Components & Systems Power Plant Sales Power Plants Investor Business Residential Commercial Large-Scale 0,1 MWp 1 MWp 10 MWp 1 kWp* 20 kWp 500 kWp 1 MWp 5 MWp 10 MWp+ Phoenix Solar’s business model covers all PV system sizes: • Components & Systems 1kWp - 1 MWp • Power Plants > 500 kWp * not to scale 8
    • Focused Business Model Focus on Photovoltaics Exclusively active in the field of photovoltaics, the market segment of renewable energies with the highest growth rate Focus on PV System Technology Focus on core competence of high-yield, long-lasting and profitable PV systems System integrators are the gateway to the end customer Advantages of Focused Business Model Purchase of PV modules and components with the best price-to-performance ratio independent of the manufacturer High flexibility, rapid response to market trends Low financial risk as limited investment is required 9
    • Target Customers for Large Solar Power Plants Closed Solar Funds as capital collection point for private investors Project Ownership Investor Business Participation starting at €10,000 Fund capitalisation starting at €20M Expected Return: > 6% Institutional investors, insurance companies, pension funds Risk spreading (in addition to equities, annuities, real estates) Planable cash flow!! Power Plant Sales Trade, Industry and Commerce EPC Contracts Secure financial returns Green image benefit Local Communities Secure financial returns Sensible use of agricultural lands 10
    • Business Model – Synergies between Power Plant and Components & Systems Segments Synergy Our business segments' strengths generate synergies Technical Know-how Product innovation Cost reduction Demand balance Segment Segment Solar Power Plants Components & Systems Strengthening of purchasing position Project Investors International Customers Resellers 11
    • Business Model – Solar Power Plants A full-service package in the Power Plant segment Phoenix Solar offers project investors an all-inclusive services & products package Project development Planning of power plants Procurement and delivery Turn-key installation Financial consulting / fund structuring Plant management Operation and maintenance 12
    • Competence in Large-scale Roof-Mounted Solar Power Plant Design & Construction Munich Trade Fair (Germany), 2.1 MWp Completion November 2002 13
    • Competence in Large-scale Ground-Mounted Solar Power Plant Design & Construction SolarPark Miegersbach (Germany), 5.3 MWp Completion December 2005 14
    • Competence in Large-scale Ground-Mounted Solar Power Plant Design & Construction “La Solana” (Spain), 6.5 MWp Completion March 2008 15
    • Features of Phoenix Solar’s Operation, Monitoring & Maintenance Service Utility standard 24/7 stand-by service independent from inverter manufacturers 24-hour reaction time in case of plant failure International service network with local contact persons Customer access to all plant data Reporting to customer (monthly, quarterly, yearly) Continuous plant optimisation 100 MWp under management 16
    • Outperformance of Large-Scale Power Plants kWh / kWp Miegersbach (5.3 MWp) kWh / kWp Munich Trade Fair 1,200 1,200 1,149 1,171 1,156 +16% +19% +18% 1,123 1,113 +22% +22% 1,087 +20% 1,000 1,000 800 800 Actual Projected 600 600 987 982 978 918 914 909 400 400 200 200 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 Phoenix Solar’s system design & operation know-how leads to significant performance improvements 17
    • Table of Contents 1. Phoenix Solar at a Glance 2. Company Profile 3. Module Supply 4. Financial Parameters 5. Phoenix Share - SonnenAktie® 6. Investment Highlights 18
    • Solar Module and Inverter Suppliers Inverter Suppliers 19
    • Product Mix: Thin-film vs. Crystalline Modules 100% Crystalline 90% 25.8% 34% 80% 42.8% 52.1% 48.1% 70% 60% 79.7% 83.1% 78.5% 50% 100% 40% Thin-film 74.2% 66% 30% 57.2% 47.9% 51.9% 20% 10% 20.3% 16.9% 21.5% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e Phoenix Solar is a leader in thin-film technology: 12% global market share in 2007 and 10% in 2008 20
    • Table of Contents 1. Phoenix Solar at a Glance 2. Company Profile 3. Module Supply 4. Financial Parameters 5. Phoenix Share - SonnenAktie® 6. Investment Highlights 21
    • Guidance 2009 & Outlook 2013 Guidance 2009 Long-term Outlook 2013 (revised on 12 November 2009) (as of 27 January 2009) Sales: 430 – 480 €M Sales: 1.5 bil. € EBIT: positive EBIT: 100 €M Positioning of Phoenix Solar as a globally leading system integrator Expansion of international business to more than 65% of sales 22
    • Sales Development 1500 700 €M 600 ~480 500 402.5 ~50 400 300 % 260.1 R 78 G CA ~430 200 111.1 119.0 100 67.2 14.4 20.8 23.5 0.0 4.0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e ... 2013e Up to 2003: Phoenix Solar AG (HGB) 2004 onwards: Revenue of Phoenix Concern (IFRS) 23
    • EBIT / EBIT-Margin Development EBIT 100 EBIT 40 (€ M) Margin 10% 35 33.8 8.6% 8.4% 30 8% 6.9% 25 22.3 6% 20 4.0% 3.7% 15 4% 10 7.7 2% 4.8 5 2.5 0 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ... 2013e According to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 24
    • Annual Results / Earnings per Share €M € / share* 28.0 4.00 Net Results EPS 3.63 24.0 3.50 23.70 3.00 20.0 2.50 €M 2.38 16.0 2.00 25.0 21.90 14.48 12.0 20.0 1.50 15.0 8.0 10.0 0.92 1.00 3.27 5.0 -0.58 4.0 0.34 0.55 0.0 4.95 0.50 3.02 - 5.0 -3.89 1.70 0.0 0.00 - 10.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1-Q3'08 Q1-Q3'09 Average # of shares: 5,025,000 5,372,945 5,546,173 6,077,000 6,535,115 6,484,956 6,684,569 * Undiluted According to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 25
    • Sales Development per Full-Time Equivalent €T 2,600 2,392 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,915 1,778 1,800 1,555 1,600 1,352 1,400 1,200 €T -38% 1,000 2,000 1,732 800 1,500 575 621 551 1,067 600 1,000 400 200 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1-Q3'08 Q1-Q3'09 Accounting Basis: HGB; from 2004 onwards IFRS 26
    • Revenue Share of Business Segments 100% Components & Systems (Germany) 90% Components & Systems (ROW) 80% 44.3% Power Plants (ROW) 46.6% 45.5% 70% 60.4% Power Plants (Germany) 72.0% 60% 5.4% 100% 50% 6.3% 7.8% 5.6% 80% 36.6% 40% 21.7% 60.4% 5.5% 30% 31.9% 60% 9.0% 4.0% 3.8% 20% 41.5% 40% 34.1% 42.6% 1.3% 24.0% 28.6% 10% 20% 34.5% 14.8% 11.8% 0% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1-Q3'08 Q1-Q3'09 27
    • Quarterly Sales Development 2008 to 2009 Group Results Group Sales Q3 2009 revenues down 40% y-o-y €M due to 160 Sales 149.3 sales price decline 140 +35% Q3 2008 being positively affected -32% by Spanish revenues 120 115.7 weakness of power plant business 110.2 -22% 101.4 100 89.7 +215% +165% 80 €M 500 60 402.5 400 +55% 41.6 36.7 300 260.1 40 200 20 100 0 0 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 2007 2008 28
    • Quarterly EBIT Development 2008 to 2009 Group Results EBIT EBIT Group EBIT (€ T) Margin Substantial EBIT 17,599 18,000 16% improvement q-o-q, however 16,000 11.8% 10.1% 12% Q3 2009 EBIT down y-o-y 14,000 11,173 due to end of Spanish market 12,000 4.6% 8% hype and weakness of power 10,000 3.3% 4% plant business 8,000 0.1% 0.9% 4,692 0% 6,000 €M 4,000 2,983 -4% 40 2,000 33.8 359 102 -8% 35 +52% 30 -12% 25 22.3 -2,000 -20.3% -4,000 20 -16% 15 -6,000 -20% 10 -8,000 5 -7,437 -10,000 -24% 0 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 2007 2008 * Adjusted in Q3-2007 according to Int’l Accounting Standard (IAS) 8.49 29
    • Order Backlog Development €M Order Backlog 300 275 280 High C&S order backlog of 105 €M 260 248 reflects year-end rush in residential and 240 231 230 commercial sectors 220 199 Total free order backlog end Q3 2009 132 200 181 (154 €M) higher in a q-o-q and y-o-y 180 164 comparison 56 154 160 143 138 167 140 214 112 244 120 129 105 94 92 95 100 75 86 88 154 78 76 80 126 59 143 143 34 60 107 90 34 40 73 63 63 49 52 52 20 17 5 10 17 5 10 1. 4. 08 1. 7. 08 1. 10. 08 1. 1. 09 4 1. 4. 09 1. 7. 09 1. 10. 09 1. 4. 08 1. 7. 08 1. 10. 08 1. 1. 09 4 1. 4. 09 1. 7. 09 1. 10. 09 1. 4. 08 1. 7. 08 1. 10. 08 1. 1. 09 1. 4. 09 1. 7. 09 1. 10. 09 1.4.08 1.7.081.10.081.1.09 1.4.09 1.7.091.10.09 1.4.08 1.7.081.10.081.1.09 1.4.09 1.7.091.10.09 1.4.08 1.7.081.10.081.1.09 1.4.09 1.7.091.10.09 Total Power Plants Components & Systems Percentage-of-Completion (PoC) Revenues “Free” Order Backlog 30
    • Table of Contents 1. Phoenix Solar at a Glance 2. Company Profile 3. Module Supply 4. Financial Parameters 5. Phoenix Share - SonnenAktie® 6. Investment Highlights 31
    • Comparison: Phoenix Solar vs. TecDAX 2008 and 2009 % % 180 180 Phoenix Phoenix 170 170 TecDAX TecDAX 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jul Aug Sep Okt Dez Jan Feb Mrz Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Mar Apr Mai Sep Oct Dez 2008 2009 Phoenix SonnenAktie® beats the TecDAX 32
    • TecDAX Ranking 2008 and 2009 350 0 Market Cap. 300 Rank Market Cap. 5 Rank Revenue Market Capitalisation (Mil. €) 250 10 15 200 15 Rank 19 150 20 100 25 30 50 30 32 0 35 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Phoenix SonnenAktie® climbs from the smallest company in the TecDAX to the middle of the pack 33
    • Dividend Payment Phoenix Solar has been paying dividends since 2007 Shareholder-oriented dividend policy according to company growth and business situation Financial year Date of Gross dividend Number of distribution per share shares 2006 29.05.2007 0.10 € 6,077,000 2007 05.06.2008 0.20 € 6,648,500 2008 20.05.2009 0.30 € 6,648,500 34
    • Current Analyst Coverage Bank Since Bank Since Deutsche Bank Barclays Capital 25.8.2005 9.2.2009 Frankfurt/Main London Commerzbank WestLB 21.11.2005 27.4.2009 Frankfurt/Main Dusseldorf Equinet Piper Jaffray 22.5.2006 28.5.2009 Frankfurt/Main Minneapolis HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt Nord/LB 17.8.2006 1.7.2009 Duesseldorf Hannover Goldman Sachs Arete 14.10.2006 3.7.2009 London London Pacific Crest CA Cheuvreux 12.6.2008 30.7.2009 Portland Frankfurt/Main UniCredit Macquarie 25.8.2008 30.7.2009 Munich London FBR Capital Markets Arkeon Finance 15.9.2008 8.9.2009 San Francisco Paris MainFirst Bank Jefferies 17.9.2008 9.9.2009 Frankfurt/Main London Viscardi LBBW 7.11.2008 7.12.2009 Munich Stuttgart BHF-Bank Close Brothers Seydler 2.12.2008 25.1.2010 Frankfurt/Main Frankfurt/Main 35
    • Table of Contents 1. Phoenix Solar at a Glance 2. Company Profile 3. Module Supply 4. Financial Parameters 5. Phoenix Share - SonnenAktie® 6. Investment Highlights 36
    • Investment Highlights Business model focuses on the core capabilities (PV systems technology), allows for high flexibility and fast exploitation of market opportunities As system integrator Phoenix Solar is the gateway to the end customer Expansion of international business to more than 50% of sales by 2010 and 65 % by 2013 World-leading expertise in large-scale power plant construction using thin-film systems technology Phoenix Solar AG – a “PV pure play” 37
    • Thank you for your attention! 38
    • Appendix
    • Phoenix Solar share in brief ISIN DE000A0BVU93 Share class No-par bearer share Number of shares as per 30/12/09 6,700,700 units Share capital 6,700,700 € Stock market segment Official Market, Prime Standard 40
    • Phoenix Share History 18/11/1999 Founding of Phoenix Solar AG (formerly Phönix SonnenStrom AG) 31/01/2001 First public offering 3rd capital increase by € 1,000,000 to € 1,675,000 3,500 private and institutional shareholders (opening price € 12) 18/11/2004 Listing on the Munich stock exchange; OTC listing on the stock exchanges of Berlin-Bremen, Stuttgart and Frankfurt/Main 01/07/2005 Listing in the M:access quality segment of the Munich stock exchange, extensive OTC reporting obligations 01/12/2005 HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt becomes Designated Sponsor for seamless trading in the electronic trading system XETRA 27/06/2006 Admission of share capital to the official market in the Prime Standard segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, further follow-up obligations 29/05/2007 Phoenix Solar pays its first dividend of € 0.10 per share 25/03/2008 Phoenix Solar’s shares added to the TecDAX technology index of Deutsche Börse AG 41
    • Quarterly Sales Development 2008 to 2009 Power Plant Segment Power Plant Segment €M Q3 Power Plant Sales down 90 Sales 83.3% y-o-y and 79.2% q-o-q 80.9 80 +22% mainly affected by project delays 70 66.5 65.0 60 -70% +303% 50 €M +693% 187.8 40 -79% 200 +44% 30 150 130.7 23.9 20 16.5 100 13.5 8.2 10 50 0 0 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 2007 2008 42
    • Quarterly EBIT Development 2008 to 2009 Power Plant Segment EBIT EBIT- Power Plant Segment €T Margin 14,000 20% Weak power plant EBIT 13,000 due to low Q3 sales 12,000 12.6% 12.2% 15% 11,000 9,885 6.5% 10% 10,000 5.7% 9,000 1.3% 8,405 5% 8,000 7,000 -3.3% 0 6,000 5,000 4,241 -5% €M 4,000 21 19.9 3,000 -10% 20 2,000 1,352 20 +11% -15% 19 1,000 214 0 19 17.9 -20% -1,000 -441 18 -2,000 -25% 18 -3,000 -2,435 17 -29.7% -4,000 -30% 17 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 2007 2008 43
    • Quarterly Sales Development 2008 to 2009 Components & Systems Segment Components & Systems €M +13% Segment 80 Sales 77.4 76.2 Q3 2009 sales in Germany 70 68.4 up 50.3% q-o-q and 11.4% +50% y-o-y +56% 60 Q3 2009 already impacted 50.7 by strong year-end rally 50 43.7 +78% €M 40 +74% 250 214.6 28.5 200 +66% 30 25.1 150 129.3 20 100 10 50 0 0 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 2007 2008 44
    • Quarterly EBIT Development 2008 to 2009 Components & Systems Segment EBIT EBIT- Components & Systems €T Margin Segment 7,707 8,000 15% 11.3% In Q1 & Q2 2009 C&S 6,000 12% business was burdened with 6.3% 4.5% 9% inventory write-downs 4.3% 3,427 4,000 2,772 3,335 Substantial EBIT improvement 6% 2,000 0.6% 3% Q3 2009 up 7.6 €M q-o-q 146 0 0 €M - 3% 16 14.0 -2,000 14 - 6% 12 +226% -4,000 - 9% -4,150 10 -5,002 -8.1% - 12% 8 -6,000 - 15% 6 4.3 -8,000 4 - 18% 2 -17.5% -10,000 - 21% 0 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 2007 2008 45
    • Quarterly Sales Development 2008 to 2009 National Sales National Sales €M National sales down 26.1% 120 National 112.2 q-o-q and up 17.6% y-o-y -26% Development underpins the 97.3 100 importance of the German +38% 82.9 market for Phoenix Solar +223% 80 70.5 +76% €M 60 300 +28% +15% 242.8 250 40.1 34.9 34.7 189.6 40 200 150 20 100 50 0 0 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 2007 2008 46
    • Quarterly Sales Development 2008 to 2009 International Sales International Sales €M International sales Q3 2009 90 International +12% down 91.4 % y-o-y but up 94.3% q-o-q 78.8 80 No international power plant project 70.1 under construction in Q3 (1.5 MWp Le 70 Lauzet project for eOn Climate & Renewables started in Q4) 60 +946% -95% 50 €M 40 200 159.7 30 150 +127% 20 100 +94% 70.4 +75% 10 6.7 6.8 50 4.1 3.5 2.0 0 0 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 2007 2008 47
    • Contact Phoenix Solar AG Hirschbergstrasse 8 D-85254 Sulzemoos Germany Phone +49 8135 938-000 www.phoenixsolar.com Fax +49 8135 938-399 phoenix@phoenixsolar.de Investor Relations Public Relations Anka Leiner Andrea Wegner Phone +49 8135 938-315 Phone +49 8135 938-313 a.leiner@phoenixsolar.de a.wegner@phoenixsolar.de 48