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Ha Noi & HCMC Real Estate Market Q3 2009




Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.
October 2009
Presentation structure


                  •I. Ha Noi real estate market Q3 2009
                  •II. HCMC real estate m...
I. Ha Noi Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009


 Market sectors:   •1 - Office for lease market
                   •2 - Re...
(1/5) Office for lease: Total supply
                                                                CEO Tower
• Total sup...
(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district
• Largest supply in Hoan Kiem District                                         ...
(1/5) Office for lease
Market performance by grade


                                                  Occupancy rate     ...
(1/5) Office for lease
Occupancy & rent, Grade A & B

                           Grade A                                  ...
(1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index
Leasing enquiries seems to be trending upward since July 2009.

            ...
(1/5) Office for lease
Future supply forecast, Q4 2009 - 2012

                                     sq m             Curre...
(1/5) Office for lease
Future supply by district, Q4 2009 - 2012

• Main supply in secondary and suburban districts.
• Lar...
(2/5) Retail market

• Total supply: 360,000 sq m, + 4% q-o-q
• 10 shopping centres, 2 department
  stores, 2 hypermarkets...
(2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type
Supply by location                                    Supply by type
• CB...
(2/5) Retail market
Market performance – occupancy rate

                                                  Shopping centre...
(2/5) Retail market
Market performance – Rent rate

Rent range is varied by location and types of retails.
Widest range is...
(2/5) Retail market
Future supply Q4 2009 - 2012



                               sq m             Existing stock   Futur...
(3/5) Hotel: Total supply

• Total supply: 5,678 rooms
 – Ten 5-star hotels, 2,983 rooms
 – Six 4-star hotels, 1,083 rooms...
(3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade
Supply by grade                                         Supply by location
Large...
(3/5) Hotel
Market performance – RevPAR indicator

                                        RevPAR (US$)                5-s...
(3/5) Hotel
Market performance of 4 & 5-star segment

                      5-star segment                                ...
(3/5) Hotel: International visitors & Future supply 2012

International visitors                                          ...
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
                                Mipec Tower              Keangnam Hanoi Landmark To...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Primary market by district and grade
•Largest supply: Tu Liem District,                         ...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Primary market performance


• Overall average primary                            Primary supply...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Secondary market by district
Secondary supply mainly in Cau Giay, Tu Liem & Hoang Mai districts....
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Secondary market performance – asking price
• Most increase are Cau Giay & Hoang Mai, 20% & 19.4...
(4/5) Apartment for sale: High demand

• The average living space: 7 - 7.5
  sq m/ person (year 2008, MOT)
• High income a...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Supply up to end 2009

Notable projects expected to launch up to end 2009

         No.    Apart...
(4/6) Apartment for sale:
Future supply by year up to 2012

By 2012: 10,290 units expected, mainly in Tu Liem (34%) & Cau ...
•Vinh Tuy Bridge put into operation
                   •Future infrastructure projects
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Future su...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment – Total supply
                                                  Grade A       Grade B       Grad...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district
Supply by unit size                                                          ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment
Market performance by occupancy & rent


                              Occupancy (%)         Aver...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment
 Market performance by grade
      Occupancy decreases 2% q-o-q across                           ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply
List of futrue projects under construction
 No.   Name of Project                 ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply

                           Units            Stock               New supply

• Mai...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment rent v.s. Office rent

      US$/ sq m/ month              Office      Serviced Apt.
      45
   ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel occupancy

                %                 Hotel             Serviced Apt.

        ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel rent

Rent of both sectors have been decreasing since Q4 2008
                        ...
II. HCMC Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009


 Market sectors:   •1 - Office for lease market
                   •2 - Ret...
(1/5) Office for lease: Total supply

• Total supply: 752,000 sq m, + 5%
  q-o-q.
- Grade A: 6 buildings, 100,000 sq m
- G...
(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district

                                                                             T...
(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by grade
  Grade A increased 35% in supply q-o-q
                                          ...
(1/5) Office for lease:
Market performance Grade A and Grade B
Grade A                                                    ...
(1/5) Office for lease:
Office rent, Hotel rate and Serviced Apartment rent

                            5-star Hotels (RH...
(1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index
Enquiries seems to be trending downward since July 2009.

                  ...
(1/5) Office for lease: Successful transaction
Demand by area                                                             ...
(1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by year

                                                                           ...
(1/5) Office for lease:
Future supply by district up to 2012

• Largest future supply: District 1,
  60% market share     ...
(2/5) Retail market: Total Supply
• Total supply: 452,400 sq m
  – 5 department stores
  – 15 shopping centres
  – 6 retai...
(2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type
Supply by location                                                     Su...
(2/5) Retail market
Market performance of shopping centre

                                                               ...
(2/5) Retail market
Market performance of Department stores

• Average rent: US$38 to                           Approx. Ar...
(2/5) Retail market
Market performance of retail podium
                                                      Approx. Area...
(2/5) Retail market
Future supply by year up to 2012

                                    sq m
• Shortage retail space   5...
(3/5) Hotel: Total supply

• (13) 5-star hotels: 4,288
  rooms,
• (8) 4-star hotels: 1,280
  rooms
• New supply: 5-star
  ...
(3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade

• Most 4 & 5-star                                           5-star       4-star...
(3/5) Hotel:
Market performance of 5 and 4-star hotels
5-star hotels:                                                     ...
(3/5) Hotel:
International visitors to Vietnam and HCMC by year


                                                        ...
(3/5) Hotel: Future supply by year up 2012

                                                                    Future sup...
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
                               New supply - River Park in Phu My Hung, D7
• New sup...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Primary market by district

                                                                    ...
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
                                                                 Primary supply
   ...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Secondary market by district

                                   Apartments                     ...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
 Primary market performance by district
                                           Primary suppl...
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Demand
 • High population: due to high birth rate & large
   number of migrants
 • Apr 2009: HCM...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Future supply by year up to 2012

By 2012: 46,000                                               ...
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Future supply by district up to 2012
                                                           ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Total supply
• Total supply: 48 serviced                               Kumho Asiana Plaza
  apar...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district
                                                                             ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by grade
                                                                    Supply
     ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment:
Market performance of Grade A and Grade B
Grade A                                               ...
(5/5) Serviced Apartment:
Future supply by year up to 2012
 By 2012: 1,400 serviced apartments to be launched.
           ...
VIET NAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Q3 2009




•Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.
Oct 2009
Viet Nam economic overview
Remittance from overseas Vietnamese (1996 – 2009E)

      US$ Billion
      9

      8

      7...
Viet Nam economic overview
National GDP growth rate (1998 – Q1-Q3 2009)

                US$ Billion
                     ...
Viet Nam economic overview
FDI to Viet Nam

            Billion US$
                70.0

                60.0

          ...
Viet Nam economic overview
CPI of Viet Nam


         %
  50.0
  45.0                                                     ...
CONTACT

          Ha Noi Office
          13th Floor, Pacific Place
          83B Ly Thuong Kiet, Hanoi
          Tel: (0...
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Transcript of "Savills Vietnam - Q3 2009 - Hanoi & HCMC Market Presentation"

  1. 1. Ha Noi & HCMC Real Estate Market Q3 2009 Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd. October 2009
  2. 2. Presentation structure •I. Ha Noi real estate market Q3 2009 •II. HCMC real estate market Q3 2009 •III. Viet Nam economic overview
  3. 3. I. Ha Noi Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009 Market sectors: •1 - Office for lease market •2 - Retail market •3 - Hotel market •4 - Apartment for sale market •5 - Serviced apartment market Ha Noi market
  4. 4. (1/5) Office for lease: Total supply CEO Tower • Total supply: – 74 office for lease buildings comprising 493,000 sq m – +10% q-o-q • 12 Grade A, 30 Grade B and 32 Grade C buildings • 3 new Grade B office buildings (46,000 sq m): – CEO Tower, Pham Hung Street, 13,000 sq m – Handiresco, Kim Ma Street, 21,000 sq m – Plaschem, Nguyen Van Cu Street, 12,000 sq m Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  5. 5. (1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district • Largest supply in Hoan Kiem District • Grade A: 21%, mainly in Hoan Kiem District, (30%), smallest supply: Tay Ho unchanged q-o-q. Grade B: 54%, largest District (1%) supply, +20% q-o-q. Grade C: 24% No. of Net office space for lease (RHS) buildings No of bldgs (LHS) Sq m Grade A Grade B Grade C sq m 30 160,000 300,000 140,000 25 250,000 120,000 20 200,000 100,000 15 80,000 150,000 ] 60,000 10 100,000 40,000 5 50,000 20,000 0 0 - Hoan Kiem Dong Da Ba Dinh Cau Giay Hai Ba Tu Liem Long Bien Tay Ho Q12008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Trung Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  6. 6. (1/5) Office for lease Market performance by grade Occupancy rate Average rent 100% 45 US$/sq m/month • Overall performance is 90% 40 worsen than Q2 Rent gap 80% (Grade A & B): 35 • The average rent rate: 70% US$15.6 US$28/sq m/month 30 60% Rent gap 25 • Grade A rent/ Grade C 50% (Grade B & C): US$9.6 rent ~ 2.5 times 20 40% • The average occupancy 15 30% rate: 85% 20% 10 10% 5 0% 0 Grade A Grade B Grade C Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  7. 7. (1/5) Office for lease Occupancy & rent, Grade A & B Grade A Grade B Occupancy rate = + 1% q-o-q Occupancy rate = - 9% q-o-q Average rent rate = - 4.5% q-o-q Average rent rate = - 2% q-o-q Occupancy rate Average rent Occupancy rate Average rent 100% 60 US$/sq m/month 100% 40 US$/sq m/month 90% 90% 50 35 80% 80% 30 70% 40 70% 60% 60% 25 50% 30 50% 20 40% 40% 20 15 30% 30% 20% 10 10 20% 10% 10% 5 0% - 0% - Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  8. 8. (1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index Leasing enquiries seems to be trending upward since July 2009. % 150 130 110 90 70 ? re nd r dT 50 wa Up 30 10 -10 November December March June March June September October September January February May July January February May July April April August August 2008 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  9. 9. (1/5) Office for lease Future supply forecast, Q4 2009 - 2012 sq m Current supply New supply •By Q4 2009: more 145,000 2,000,000 sq m, 10 projects •2010 & 2011: about 350,000 1,600,000 sq m more each year •By 2012: more 1.1 million sq 1,200,000 m, mainly in suburbs 800,000 400,000 0 Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  10. 10. (1/5) Office for lease Future supply by district, Q4 2009 - 2012 • Main supply in secondary and suburban districts. • Largest supply in Tu Liem & Cau Giay District. Current supply as of Q3 2009 New supply of office space sq m 350,000 CBD 9% 300,000 250,000 Suburban 40% 200,000 Secondary 150,000 51% 100,000 50,000 0 Ba Dinh Hoan Hai Ba Dong Hoang Cau Thanh Tay Ho Tu Liem Long Kiem Trung Da Mai Giay Xuan Bien Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  11. 11. (2/5) Retail market • Total supply: 360,000 sq m, + 4% q-o-q • 10 shopping centres, 2 department stores, 2 hypermarkets, 78 supermarkets & electronics, 2 wholesale centres and 12 retail podiums • 1 new shopping centre - Vincom Galleries, Ba Trieu Street, 15,000 sq m Ha Noi market
  12. 12. (2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type Supply by location Supply by type • CBD: 12%, unchanged q-o-q • Retail podium: mainly in CBD • Secondary area: largest • Shopping centre & supermarket: mainly in supply, 56%, +6% q-o-q secondary area • Suburban area: 32%, • Hypermarket & wholesale market: mainly in unchanged q-o-q suburban area. Secondary 56% Retail Podiums 5% Hypermarket CBD 24% 12% Supermarkets 31% Shopping center 16% Suburban Wholesales Department store 32% Centres 8% 16% Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  13. 13. (2/5) Retail market Market performance – occupancy rate Shopping centre/ Department Store/ Hypermarket Occupancy •Overall occupancy: 90%- Retail P o dium 100% 95%, decrease 3-5% q-o-q 90% •CBD: nearly 100% 80% occupancy across all retail types 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% N/A data for retail podium 0% CBD Secondary Suburban Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  14. 14. (2/5) Retail market Market performance – Rent rate Rent range is varied by location and types of retails. Widest range is for retail podium in CBD. US$/sq m/month US$/sq m/month 130 160 120 120 Min Max 150 150 Min Max 110 140 100 130 120 90 120 80 110 70 100 70 60 90 57 50 80 50 70 40 60 30 50 20 40 20 10 38 7 30 0 30 20 CBD Secondary Suburban CBD Secondary Shopping centre/ Department store Retail Podium / Hypermarket Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  15. 15. (2/5) Retail market Future supply Q4 2009 - 2012 sq m Existing stock Future st ock •Q4 2009: 11,400 sq m 1,200,000 •2010: more than 1,000,000 82,000 sq m 800,000 •2011: 425,000 sq m, largest future supply 600,000 •2012: 204,000 sq m 400,000 200,000 0 Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  16. 16. (3/5) Hotel: Total supply • Total supply: 5,678 rooms – Ten 5-star hotels, 2,983 rooms – Six 4-star hotels, 1,083 rooms – Twenty-two 3-star hotels, 1,612 rooms • One new 4-star hotel, Mercure Ha Noi La Gare, Ly Thuong Kiet Street, with 102 rooms Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  17. 17. (3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade Supply by grade Supply by location Largest segment: 5-star (53%) Largest provider: Hoan Kiem District (26%) Smallest segment: 4-star (19%) Smallest provider: Long Bien District (1%) Long Bien 1% Dong Da 15% Hoan 3-star Kiem 28% 26% 5-star 53% Ba Dinh 25% Tay Ho 4-star 22% 19% Hai Ba Trung 11% Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  18. 18. (3/5) Hotel Market performance – RevPAR indicator RevPAR (US$) 5-star 4-star 3-star • RevPAV across all sectors: 110 -9% q-o-q 100 90 • RevPAV for 5-star hotels: 80 -10% q-o-q, largest decline 70 • RevPAV for 4-star hotels: 60 almost unchanged q-o-q 50 • RevPAV for 3-star hotels: 40 -9% q-o-q 30 20 10 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 n/ a Revenue per available room (RevPAR) = Average Daily Room Rate x Occupancy Rate Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  19. 19. (3/5) Hotel Market performance of 4 & 5-star segment 5-star segment 4-star segment ARR: -10% q-o-q ARR: -5% q-o-q Occupancy: unchanged q-o-q Occupancy: +2% q-o-q Average occupancy ARR Average occupancy ARR Occupancy (%) US$ per night Occupancy (%) US$ per night 70 180 80 120 60 70 150 100 50 60 120 80 50 40 90 40 60 30 60 30 20 40 20 10 30 20 10 0 0 0 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Average room rate (ARR) = the rooms revenue / the total number of guest rooms occupied. Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  20. 20. (3/5) Hotel: International visitors & Future supply 2012 International visitors Future supply by 2012 • Number of international visitor to Viet Nam: • Mainly in Tu Liem & Cau Giay districts -17% y-o-y in the next 2 years. • Number of international visitor to Ha Noi: - • Mainly comes from 4 & 5-star hotel 2% y-o-y projects. No. of foreign Vietnam Hanoi # of rooms Existing stock Newsupply visitors (million) 5 1 2,000 1 0,000 4 8,000 3 6,000 2 4,000 1 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 First 9 0 months 201 0 201 1 Future of 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  21. 21. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply Mipec Tower Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower • Primary supply: 1,152 units from 10 active projects • Secondary supply: 29,150 units Sky City Towers Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  22. 22. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market by district and grade •Largest supply: Tu Liem District, •Grade A ( 83.7%), Grade B (0.9%), and smallest supply: Hoan Kiem District Grade C(15.5%) •Un-balance among product types Units Units 600 1,000 Primary supply 500 800 400 600 300 400 200 100 200 0 0 Tu Liem Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Ba Dinh Hoan Kiem Grade A Grade B Grade C Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  23. 23. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market performance • Overall average primary Primary supply asking price: +5% q-o-q No. of sold units in Q3 2009 No. of units Average primary asking price excl. VAT US$/ m2 • Sold units/ Primary 1,000 3,000 supply 900 800 2,500 Grade A = 27% 700 2,000 Grade B = 60% 600 Grade C = 96% 500 1,500 400 1,000 300 200 500 100 0 - Grade A Grade B Grade C Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  24. 24. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market by district Secondary supply mainly in Cau Giay, Tu Liem & Hoang Mai districts. Units 8,000 7,000 Secondary supply 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Cau Tu Liem Hoang Dong Da Long Ba Dinh Hai Ba Tay Ho Thanh Hoan Giay Mai Bien Trung Xuan Kiem Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  25. 25. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market performance – asking price • Most increase are Cau Giay & Hoang Mai, 20% & 19.4% q-o-q respectively • Lower increases in Hoan Kiem & Ba Dinh, 2.7% & 3.4% q-o-q respectively Tu Liem Cau Giay Thanh Xuan Hoan Kiem Ba Dinh Tay Ho US$/ sq m Hoang Mai Long Bien US$/ sq m Dong Da Hai Ba Trung 1,800 4,500 1,500 4,000 3,500 1,200 3,000 900 2,500 600 2,000 300 1,500 - 1,000 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  26. 26. (4/5) Apartment for sale: High demand • The average living space: 7 - 7.5 sq m/ person (year 2008, MOT) • High income and saving • High speed urbanization • More attractive mortgage plans, up to 70% value and repayment time up to 20 years. Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  27. 27. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Supply up to end 2009 Notable projects expected to launch up to end 2009 No. Apartment project name District No. of Units 1 Project at 671 Hoang Hoa Tham (Phase II) Ba Dinh 40 2 Trung Yen 2 Cau Giay 240 3 Hanoi Indochina Plaza Cau Giay 390 4 Richland Southern Tower Cau Giay 176 5 Lilama Plaza Hoang Mai 150 6 Canal Park - Thach Ban New City (Phase I) Long Bien 148 7 CT1- Co Nhue New Urban Area Tu Liem 72 8 Megastar Dominium Tu Liem 336 9 Dolphin Plaza Tu Liem 400 Total 1,952 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  28. 28. (4/6) Apartment for sale: Future supply by year up to 2012 By 2012: 10,290 units expected, mainly in Tu Liem (34%) & Cau Giay (30%) Hoan Kiem Thanh Tri Gia Lam Tay Ho No record for future supply by 2012 in these districts Dong Anh Hai Ba Trung Long Bien Thanh Xuan Ba Dinh Hoang Mai Dong Da Cau Giay Tu Liem 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Units Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  29. 29. •Vinh Tuy Bridge put into operation •Future infrastructure projects (4/5) Apartment for sale: Future supply by year up to 2012 Nhat Tan Bridge Hoa Binh Park Le Van Luong extended road Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  30. 30. (5/5) Serviced Apartment – Total supply Grade A Grade B Grade C Units • 41 projects, about 220,000 sq m, 2197 units 2,400 2,200 – 11 Grade A, 1,181 units 2,000 – 17 Grade B, 819 units 1,800 – 13 Grade C, 197 units 1,600 • 100 units from Fraser 1,400 Suites, Xuan Dieu Street, 1,200 entered the market in Q3 2009 1,000 800 600 400 200 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  31. 31. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district Supply by unit size Supply by district • Highest market share are units <100 sq m • Main stock in Tay Ho, Ba Dinh & Hoan Kiem • Smallest market share are units >200 sq m • Fewer stock in Hoang Mai & Dong Da • The smaller size, the higher market share 4% Ba Dinh 10% Cau Giay 28% >200 sq m 38% Dong Da 150 sq m - 200 sq m 22% Hoang Mai 100 sq m - 150 sq m Hai Ba Trung 64% 8% 1% <100 sq m Hoan Kiem 16% 3% 6% Tay Ho Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  32. 32. (5/5) Serviced Apartment Market performance by occupancy & rent Occupancy (%) Average Rent Percent US$/ sq m/ month 100 30.0 29.0 80 28.0 27.0 60 26.0 25.0 40 24.0 23.0 20 22.0 21.0 0 20.0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  33. 33. (5/5) Serviced Apartment Market performance by grade Occupancy decreases 2% q-o-q across Grade A rent: decreased 11% q-o-q, to all three grades 30.3US$/ sq m/ month. Occupancy rates are stable from Q3 Grade B & Grade C rent: almost remain 2008 to Q3 2009 (range from 86% to q-o-q 89%) Grade A Grade B Grade C Grade A Grade B Grade C % U sq m m S$/ / onth 100 40 90 30 80 20 70 10 60 50 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  34. 34. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply List of futrue projects under construction No. Name of Project District No. of Units Est. Completion year 1 Hanoi Fraser Suites Tay Ho 10 Q4 2009 2 Crown Plaza Complex (X7 Site) Tu Liem 84 Q4 2010 3 The Landmark (Hanoi City Complex) Ba Dinh 352 Q3 2011 4 Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower Tu Liem 506 Q3 2011 5 Licogi 13 Thanh Xuan 60 Q4 2011 6 HD Complex Cau Giay 60 2012 7 HD Plaza Thanh Xuan Cau Giay 150 2012 8 Habico Tower Tu Liem n/a n/a Total 1,222 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  35. 35. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply Units Stock New supply • Main future supply: in 4,000 west & north west of 3,500 Ha Noi 3,000 • 2011: huge stock expected to enter 2,500 market. 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Future Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  36. 36. (5/5) Serviced Apartment rent v.s. Office rent US$/ sq m/ month Office Serviced Apt. 45 40 35 30 25 20 Gap is narrowing 15 10 5 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  37. 37. (5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel occupancy % Hotel Serviced Apt. 100 80 60 40 20 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  38. 38. (5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel rent Rent of both sectors have been decreasing since Q4 2008 Hotel (LHS) Serviced Apt. (RHS) 160.0 29.0 28.5 140.0 28.0 120.0 27.5 US$/ sq m/ month 100.0 27.0 US$/ night 26.5 80.0 26.0 60.0 25.5 40.0 25.0 24.5 20.0 24.0 0.0 23.5 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  39. 39. II. HCMC Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009 Market sectors: •1 - Office for lease market •2 - Retail market •3 - Hotel market •4 - Apartment for sale market •5 - Serviced apartment market Ha Noi market
  40. 40. (1/5) Office for lease: Total supply • Total supply: 752,000 sq m, + 5% q-o-q. - Grade A: 6 buildings, 100,000 sq m - Grade B: 31 buildings, 375,000 sq m • New supply: Kumho Asiana Plaza, 39 Le Duan Boulevard - District 1, 25,700 sq m HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  41. 41. (1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district Total net area Market share sq m % • Largest supply: 500,000 100% District 1, 440,000 sq m, 60% market 400,000 80% share • Smallest supply: 300,000 60% District 5, 1,000 sq m, 0.1% market share 200,000 40% • District 7, new development area, 100,000 20% 53,000 sq m, 7% market share 0 0% Dist. 1 Tan Binh Dist. 3 Dist. 7 Phu Dist. 10 Dist. 4 Binh Dist. 5 Nhuan Thanh HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  42. 42. (1/5) Office for lease: Supply by grade Grade A increased 35% in supply q-o-q Grade A Grade B thousand sq m 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  43. 43. (1/5) Office for lease: Market performance Grade A and Grade B Grade A Grade B • The average rent: US$ 63.2/ sq m/mth, -3% •The average rent: US$30/ sq m/mth, q-o-q. remains unchanged. • The average occupancy: 81%, -15% q-o-q. • The average occupancy: 86%, +6% q-o-q. Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS) Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS) % US$/sq m/mth % US$/sq m/mth 100% 100 100% 100 90% 90 90% 90 80% 80 80% 80 70% 70 70% 70 60% 60 60% 60 50% 50 50% 50 40% 40 40% 40 30% 30 30% 30 20% 20 20% 20 10% 10 10% 10 0% 0 0% 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  44. 44. (1/5) Office for lease: Office rent, Hotel rate and Serviced Apartment rent 5-star Hotels (RHS) 4-star Hotels (RHS) Grade A Office for lease (LHS) Grade B Office for lease (LHS) Grade A Serviced Apartment (LHS) Grade B Serviced Apartment (LHS) $US/sq m/month $US/room/night $US/sq m/month $US/room/night 100 200 100 200 80 160 80 160 60 120 60 120 40 80 40 80 20 40 20 40 0 0 0 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  45. 45. (1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index Enquiries seems to be trending downward since July 2009. Office leasing enquiry 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Nov-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  46. 46. (1/5) Office for lease: Successful transaction Demand by area Demand by purpose Over 500 sq m 12% From Grade B to B 40% 401 - 500 sq m 2% From Grade C to B 24% 301 - 400 sq m 7% From Grade C to C 14% 201 - 300 sq m 12% New entrants to B 9% 100 - 200 sq m 30% From Grade A to B 9% Below 100 sq m 35% From Grade A to C 4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  47. 47. (1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by year Future supply sq m • By 2012: over one 800,000 million sq m new office supply. • Office market could 600,000 double its supply in the next 3 years. 400,000 200,000 0 Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Potential 2012 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  48. 48. (1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by district up to 2012 • Largest future supply: District 1, 60% market share District 1 District 7 • New supply developing in Tan Binh surburban areas like 7, Tan District 4 Binh and Nha Be districts. Binh Thanh Nha Be District Percentage District 3 District 1 59% District 9 District 7 20% Tan Binh 5% District 5 District 4 3% District 10 Binh Thanh 3% Nha Be 3% Tan Phu District 3 2% District 9 2% District 5 1% District 10 1% Tan Phu 1% HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  49. 49. (2/5) Retail market: Total Supply • Total supply: 452,400 sq m – 5 department stores – 15 shopping centres – 6 retail podium – 59 super markets – 3 wholesale markets • No new supply in Q3 2009 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  50. 50. (2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type Supply by location Supply by type Supermarkets Suburban Shopping Centres Secondary CBD Department Stores 1% Wholesale Markets 11% 19% 15% Retail Podiums 46% 31% 42% 35% HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  51. 51. (2/5) Retail market Market performance of shopping centre Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent sq m US$/sq m/month • Average rent: US$44 30,000 150 to US$80 per sqm. 25,000 120 • Average occupancy: 94% 20,000 90 15,000 60 10,000 30 5,000 0 0 Eden Mall Thuan Kieu Plaza Royal Centre Citi Plaza Tax Plaza Lucky Plaza Saigon Paragon Saigon Centre Master Zone Lotte Mart Vinatex Plaza Alta Plaza Saigon Superbowl Saigon Square HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  52. 52. (2/5) Retail market Market performance of Department stores • Average rent: US$38 to Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent US$140 per sq m. sq m US$/sq m/month 25,000 250 • Highest rent: US$220 (Diamond Plaza) 20,000 200 (comparable to mall rents in Thailand) 15,000 150 10,000 100 5,000 50 0 0 Parkson Hung Parkson Parkson CT Diamond Plaza Zen Plaza Vuong Saigontourist Plaza HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  53. 53. (2/5) Retail market Market performance of retail podium Approx. Area Upper rent Low er rent • Average rent: US$74 to sq m US$/sq m/month US$105 per sq m 2,500 150 • Average occupancy: 99%. 2,000 120 1,500 90 1,000 60 500 30 0 0 The Manor Opera View New World Rex Hotel Sheraton Caravelle Hotel Saigon Hotel HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  54. 54. (2/5) Retail market Future supply by year up to 2012 sq m • Shortage retail space 500,000 anticipated in HCMC until 2010. 400,000 • Demand expected to grow. Undersupply 300,000 expected. 200,000 100,000 0 2010E 2011E 2012 E HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  55. 55. (3/5) Hotel: Total supply • (13) 5-star hotels: 4,288 rooms, • (8) 4-star hotels: 1,280 rooms • New supply: 5-star Intercontinental Asiana Saigon, Corner Hai Ba Trung and Le Duan Street, 305 rooms. HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  56. 56. (3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade • Most 4 & 5-star 5-star 4-star 3-star hotels are located No. of rooms in District 1 (70%). 100% • Follow in supply: District 5, 3, Tan 80% Binh and Phu Nhuan. 60% 40% 20% 0% District 1 District 3 District 5 Tan Binh Phu Nhuan Can Gio HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  57. 57. (3/5) Hotel: Market performance of 5 and 4-star hotels 5-star hotels: 4-star hotels: • Room rate: US$117/night, remains • Room rate: US$72/night, -1% q-o-q. unchanged • Occupancy: 54% • Occupancy: 50% Occupancy Occupancy Average room rate Average room rate % US$/room/night % US$/room/night 100% 200 100% 200 80% 160 80% 160 60% 120 60% 120 40% 80 40% 80 20% 40 20% 40 0% 0 0% 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  58. 58. (3/5) Hotel: International visitors to Vietnam and HCMC by year To HCMC (mil) • To Vietnam: 2.8 million To VN (mil) visitors, -16% y-o-y No. of foreign visitors (million) 4.5 • To HCMC: 2 million 4.0 visitors, -12% y-o-y 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sep- 09 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  59. 59. (3/5) Hotel: Future supply by year up 2012 Future supply Up to 2012: No. of rooms •1,050 5-star rooms 1,900 1,700 •1,000 4-star rooms 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 300 100 2010E 2011E 2012E HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  60. 60. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply New supply - River Park in Phu My Hung, D7 • New supply: 10 projects, 3,400 apartments • Primary market: 34 active projects, 5,620 apartments • Secondary market: 91 sold out projects, 41,500 apartments HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  61. 61. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market by district No. of units in active projects Market share • District 8: 1,200 Units % apartments, 21% 1,400 25% market share 1,200 20% • District 7: 880 1,000 apartments, 16% 15% market share 800 600 • District 2: 820 10% apartments, 15% 400 market share 5% 200 0 0% Tan Phu Thu Duc Dist. 8 Dist. 7 Dist. 2 Binh Tan Nha Be Binh Thanh Tan Binh Dist. 6 Dist. 11 Dist. 9 Dist. 4 Dist. 5 Go Vap HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  62. 62. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply Primary supply Market share (%) Apartments % • Grade A: 500 4,500 100 apartments, 9% 4,000 market share 3,500 80 • Grade B: 890 3,000 apartments, 16% 60 market share 2,500 2,000 • Grade C: 4,230 40 apartments, 75% 1,500 market share 1,000 20 500 0 0 Grade A Grade B Grade C HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  63. 63. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market by district Apartments Secondary supply 13,000 Market share: 11,000 • District 7: 26% 9,000 7,000 • Binh Thanh District: 5,000 12% 3,000 1,000 • District 2: 11% Dist. 7 Binh Dist. 2 Binh Nha Be Tan Phu Dist. 4 Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Thu Duc Thanh Chanh Secondary supply Apartments 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 300 Dist. 5 Binh Tan Dist. 6 Dist. 9 Go Vap Tan Binh Dist. 11 Dist. 3 Dist. 12 Phu Nhuan HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  64. 64. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market performance by district Primary supply in Q3 2009 Primary supply in Q3 2009 # of units sold in Q3 2009 # of units sold in Q3 2009 Average Primary Price Average Primary Price Apartments US$ per sq m Apartments US$ per sq m 1,400 2,500 1,000 2,500 900 1,200 2,000 800 2,000 1,000 700 1,500 600 1,500 800 500 600 1,000 400 1,000 300 400 500 200 500 200 100 0 0 0 0 Dist. 8 Dist. 7 Dist. 2 Thu Binh Nha Be Binh Tan Dist. 6 Dist. 11 Tan Phu Go Vap Dist. 9 Dist. 4 Dist. 5 Duc Tan Thanh Binh HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  65. 65. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Demand • High population: due to high birth rate & large number of migrants • Apr 2009: HCMC population stands at 7.1 million via Population and Housing Census conducted every 10 years. • High income and saving recorded • Low debt recorded • High speed urbanization: in every direction from the city centre. • Banking market: more attractive mortgage plans, up to 70% value and repayment time is up to 20 years. HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  66. 66. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Future supply by year up to 2012 By 2012: 46,000 # of planned units apartments are planned # of planned projects Apartments Projects for launch. 25,000 40 35 20,000 30 25 15,000 20 10,000 15 10 5,000 5 0 0 2010 2011 2012 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  67. 67. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Future supply by district up to 2012 Future supply • Districts 7, 9 and Market share District 2 will be the 14,000 Apartments % 30% main future supply (50%). 12,000 25% • District 9 is emerging 10,000 as one of the main 20% suppliers in HCMC in 8,000 the mid-term. 15% 6,000 10% 4,000 5% 2,000 0 0% Dist. 7 Dist. 9 Dist. 2 Nha Be Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Go Vap Thu Duc Binh Tan Others HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  68. 68. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Total supply • Total supply: 48 serviced Kumho Asiana Plaza apartment buildings, 2,670 units. - Grade A: 7 buildings, 658 units - Grade B: 11 buildings, 1,272 units - Grade C: 30 buildings, 740 units • New supply: Kumho Asiana Plaza, 260 units HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  69. 69. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district No. of Units Districts 1 and 3 are Market share considered well- No. of units % developed supplied 1,600 100% for serviced 1,400 apartments (67%). 80% 1,200 1,000 60% 800 40% 600 400 20% 200 0 0% Dist. 1 Dist. 3 Binh Thanh Dist. 2 Dist. 7 Dist. 10 Phu Nhuan Tan Binh HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  70. 70. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by grade Supply Market share Market share No. of units % 1400 60% • Grade A: 25% • Grade B: 48% 1200 50% • Grade C: 28% 1000 40% 800 30% 600 20% 400 200 10% 0 0% Grade A Grade B Grade C HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  71. 71. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Market performance of Grade A and Grade B Grade A Grade B Rent: US$27/ sq m, -6% q-o-q Rent: US$24/ sq m, -2% q-o-q Occupancy: 64% Occupancy: 94% Vacancy units Leased units Vacancy units Average rent Leased units Average rent Units US$/ sqm/ month Units US$/ sq m/ month 800 40 1,400 40 35 1,200 35 600 30 1,000 30 25 25 800 400 20 20 600 15 15 400 200 10 10 200 5 5 0 0 0 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 09 HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  72. 72. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply by year up to 2012 By 2012: 1,400 serviced apartments to be launched. New Stock No. of Units 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
  73. 73. VIET NAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Q3 2009 •Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd. Oct 2009
  74. 74. Viet Nam economic overview Remittance from overseas Vietnamese (1996 – 2009E) US$ Billion 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Est. 2009 Remittance Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009
  75. 75. Viet Nam economic overview National GDP growth rate (1998 – Q1-Q3 2009) US$ Billion 100 9% 8% 80 7% 6% 60 5% 4% 40 3% 20 2% 1% 0 0% Q1- Q3 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 GDP at current price 27.2 28.5 30.6 32.3 33.6 38.7 45.4 53.3 61.0 70.0 88.5 64.8 GDP grow th rate 5.80% 4.80% 6.00% 6.80% 6.90% 7.24% 7.70% 8.40% 8.17% 8.48% 6.23% 4.56% Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009
  76. 76. Viet Nam economic overview FDI to Viet Nam Billion US$ 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Q1-Q3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Pledged FDI 3.2 4.5 6.8 10.2 20.3 64.0 12.54 Disbursed FDI 2.65 2.85 2.45 3.6 8.3 11.5 7.2 Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009
  77. 77. Viet Nam economic overview CPI of Viet Nam % 50.0 45.0 CPI 40.0 CPI - Food & Foodstuff 35.0 CPI - Construction materials 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 01/08 02/08 03/08 04/08 05/08 06/08 07/08 08/08 09/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09 Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009
  78. 78. CONTACT Ha Noi Office 13th Floor, Pacific Place 83B Ly Thuong Kiet, Hanoi Tel: (04) 3946 1300 Fax: (04) 3946 1302 Hanoi-info@savills.com.vn HCMC Office 18th Floor, Fideco Tower 81 - 85 Ham Nghi street, District 1, HCMC Tel: (08) 3823 9205 Fax: (08) 3823 4571 Hcmc-info@savills.com.vn Saigon South Office 2nd Floor, The Laurence S.Ting Building 801 Nguyen Van Linh Parkway Tan Phu Ward, District 7, HCMC Tel: (08) 3412 0100 Fax: (08) 3412 0199 www.savills.com.vn
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