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Social Predictors Of Intention To Prepare
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Social Predictors Of Intention To Prepare

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Social Predictors Of Intention To Prepare Social Predictors Of Intention To Prepare Presentation Transcript

  • Social Predictors of Intention to Prepare for Volcanic Hazards case study: Merapi Volcano, Indonesia Saut Sagala PhD Student, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University Supervisor: Prof Norio Okada Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Syakai Bosai Seminar, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University – Sept 7-8, 2008
  • Research Background
    • Disaster Preparedness at Household or personal level.
    • Issue of community participation
    • The link between personal, community and institutional factors
  • General Framework Personal Community Institutional Q1 Q2 Q3… Q1 Q2 Q3… Q1 Q2 Q3…
  • Contributing Factors Negative Outcome Expectancy Positive Outcome Expectancy Community Participation Trust Collective Efficacy Empowerment Critical Awareness Action Coping Self Efficacy Sense of Community Articulating Problem Social Support Personal Community Institutional
  • Model in New Zealand P P C C I I Source: Paton et al 2008 0.37 0.98 0.99 0.052 R 2 NFI GFI RMSEA
  • Survey : Jan – Feb 2008
    • Questionnaire
    • 322 samples
    • 5 villages
    • Random
    Study Area
  • Sample Characteristics
    • 60% farmer
    • 32% sand miner
    • 30% dairy man
    96% male 4% female < 12,500 / month 70% 25% 12,500 – 25,000 / month Occupations Type of House
    • Concrete (80%)
    • Wood (20%)
    Sex Income
  • History of Eruptions 1994 2006 year 66 2 1930 1369 1953 64 loss of life 1997 6 missing
  • This Research
    • Do the communities learn?
    • What sort of factors are involved and play roles?
    • What factors are managable to be changed?
  • x 2 = 1896.3, df = 889 Social Predictors: 1 st Model 12% 0.119 0.438 0.586 0.779 0.070 0.070 R 2 NFI CFI GFI RMR RMSEA
  • x 2 = 683.9, df = 354 Social Predictors: 2 nd Model 26% 0.258 0.621 0.764 0.877 0.053 0.054 R 2 NFI CFI GFI RMR RMSEA
  • x 2 = 1247.5, df = 645 Social Predictors: 3 rd Model 27% 0.268 0.501 0.664 0.832 0.054 0.054 R 2 NFI CFI GFI RMR RMSEA
  • Conclusion… so far
    • Negative outcome expectancy (-0.31)
    • Intention to seek for information - ISI (0.48)
    • Community participation (0.22)
    • Action coping (0.40)
    4 direct factors
    • Trust
    • Self Efficacy
    2 indirect factors
  • Conclusion… so far High influence by factors at personal / household level Community and institutional factors play role too Construction of model of social predictors of intention to prepare (model 2 and 3)
  • Thank you very much どもありがとうございます