Dewr presentation aug 07

GLOBALISATION, WAGES AND WELFARE REFORM The ‘Middle Mass’ and the ‘Marginalised Minority’ in twenty-first century Australia Peter Saunders Centre for Independent Studies Keynote address to Dept of Employment and Workplace Relations All SES Conference, Sydney, 2 August 2007

What exactly is the problem we want to solve? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How to raise workforce participation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How to raise workforce participation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How to raise workforce participation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The context of welfare reform: The Changing Social Structure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Despite shrinking lower class, welfare state keeps getting bigger ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Welfare growth partly driven by growing dependency of the ‘marginalised minority’

But welfare growth also driven by increasing dependency of the ‘middle mass’ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Why is a big welfare state a problem? (1) Economic effects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Why is a big welfare state a problem? (2) Sociological effects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Why is a big welfare state a problem? (2) Sociological effects (continued) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Why is a big welfare state a problem? (2) Sociological effects (continued) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What can be done? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],“ A significant proportion of income taxes paid during the lifetime are returned to the same individuals in the form of cash transfers during some other period of their lifecycle” (Ann Harding) e.g. Average Australian pays in taxes for 73% of the government health care they receive (even the bottom decile pays for $62,000 of its $177,000 lifetime health benefits – 2006 prices) At least half of all welfare state spending ($85bn) is churned rather than redistributed So most people could afford to buy what they need if they didn’t pay so much tax

How could self-reliance of Middle Mass be restored? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What about the Marginalised Minority? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

(a) The long-term unemployed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Motivation Choosiness Strugglers 8% Drivers 16% Cruising 16% Withdrawn 13% Dependents 12% Selectives 7% Disempowered 15% Drifters 13%

(b) School leavers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

(c) Single parents ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Continuous spell on PPS 23% Return to PPS 21% Onto PPP (partnered with unemployed claimant) 28% Onto unemployment or other Income Support 10% Exit welfare 19% (average duration = 21 months)

(d) DSP Claimants ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Two changes reduced capability of the most vulnerable groups ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Two changes destroyed capability (cont) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Where did the low-skilled jobs go? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What can be done for low-skilled jobless? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

(1) Training/education ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

(1) Training/education ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

You can take a horse to water… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

(2) Create more unskilled opportunities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Low value jobs, so cut minimum wage ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How do we strengthen ‘soft skills’? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

(3) Paternalistic Welfare ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Dewr presentation aug 07

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Dewr presentation aug 07