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Better Energy For Ireland

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The Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software was used to create a model of energy and climate futures for Ireland that could result from the implementation of different policy …

The Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software was used to create a model of energy and climate futures for Ireland that could result from the implementation of different policy measures including business as usual, demand side management, feed-in tariffs, and electrifying parts of the transportation system. These scenarios are considered individually and in tandem with each other.

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  • 1. Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Page E n e r g y & E n v i r o n m e n t P r o j e c t 2012 Better Energy for Ireland A better, more sustainable, future Naganathan, S.;Piechulek, E.;Ranzanici,A.;Saul, C.; Siriwardhana, D. Course MJ 2413 – Energy and Environment Division of Energy Systems Analysis Department of Energy Technology Winter Semester 2012/2013
  • 2. Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana PageI Abstract This report aims to analyse different future possible energy and climate scenarios for the Republic of Ireland from 2011 to 2040. The project is an independent part of the course of Energy and Environment offered by The Royal Insti- tute of Technology (KTH) of Stockholm as part of the academic curriculum of different Master programs in the field of Energy Technology. The report analyses and discusses three different main energy future scenarios, which were created us- ing the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software, and compares them with other especially regarding the expected reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The first scenario, Business as Usual (BAU), has been designed so that no policies of any sort are put in place and that only very few variables, such as GDP, Population and Income Growth affect the future energy development. In addition to the baseline scenario, the Demand Side Management Scenario (DSM), which aims to re- duce the peak load by shifting the demand while increasing the efficiency, and the 202020 Policy Scenar- io with Offshore Generation have been created, which accounts for individual policies and goals Ireland has set in order to meet its commitments to the European Union’s climate and energy targets Finally, all the scenarios have been compared with a particular focus on the Global Warming Potential reduction achieved by each of them.
  • 3. Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana PageII Table of Contents Abstract..............................................................................................................................................I Table of Contents...............................................................................................................................II List of Figures....................................................................................................................................III List of Tables .....................................................................................................................................III Inside Ireland .....................................................................................................................................1 An Economy in Transition.......................................................................................................................... 1 Current Demand Situation ........................................................................................................................ 2 Better Energy............................................................................................................................................. 5 Policy in the EU and Ireland ................................................................................................................6 Ireland Tomorrow ..............................................................................................................................7 The Approach ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Data Sources.............................................................................................................................................. 9 Growth Predictions.................................................................................................................................... 9 Future Projections using LEAP...........................................................................................................10 Business as Usual..................................................................................................................................... 10 Demand Side Management (DSM).......................................................................................................... 12 New Policy: Meeting 2020 Commitments and Beyond........................................................................... 16 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation ..............................................................................................................23 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................27 Looking Forward ..............................................................................................................................28 ANNEX - I ............................................................................................................................................i ANNEX - II .........................................................................................................................................iii ANNEX - III ........................................................................................................................................ iv ANNEX - IV .........................................................................................................................................v
  • 4. Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana PageIII List of Figures Figure 1: Historical energy demand in Ireland 1995-2010 by sector ............................................................ 3 Figure 2: Historical energy demand in Ireland 1995-2010 by fuel................................................................ 3 Figure 3: Energy Demand in Ireland in 2010 by fuel ..................................................................................... 4 Figure 4: Key Assumption breakdown........................................................................................................... 7 Figure 5: Demand breakdown....................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 6: BAU Projection of Primary Resource Requirements 2010-2040.................................................. 10 Figure 7: BAU Projection of Demand Requirements 2010-2040................................................................. 11 Figure 8: Peak Load Shape comparison between BAU and DSM scenarios (i.e. before and after peak load management).............................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 9: Potential Savings in the Residential, Industry and Commercial Sectors by 2020 ........................ 13 Figure 10: Reduction in Primary Requirements from BAU scenario (by fuel)............................................. 14 Figure 11: Reduction in energy demand in DSM scenario. ......................................................................... 14 Figure 12: Avoided endogenous capacity additions through DSM implementation iny Electricity Generation Processes)................................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 14: Electricity Transformation under REFIT 2 and 3......................................................................... 19 Figure 15: Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs under 202020+Offshore scenario in the year 2020 ............ 19 Figure 16: Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs under 202020 scenario in the year 2020............................. 19 Figure 17: Energy Demand in the Transportation Sector............................................................................ 20 Figure 18: Changes in Primary Energy for the Transport Sector with Transport Policy alone and with additional renewable energy ...................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 19: Energy Mix under 202020 Scenario in the year 2020 ................................................................ 21 Figure 20: Energy Mix under 202020 .......................................................................................................... 22 Figure 21: Projection of tonnes of CO2 Equivalent and %-share of total emissions by demand sector 2010- 2040............................................................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 22: Projection of GHG emmision in the BAU scenario 2010-2040................................................... 23 Figure 23: Global Warming potential in BAU projection by grouped fuel, 2010-2040............................... 24 Figure 24: Global Warming Potential in BAU projection by fuel, 2010-2040 ............................................. 24 Figure 25: Historical energy demand by fuel 1995-2010 ............................................................................ 25 Figure 26: Projected Global Warming Potential for all scenarios 2010-2040............................................. 25 Figure 27: Global Warming Potential when all scenarios are implemented "202020+offshore". As can be seen from this figure, the GHG reduction in the residential sector, followed by the transport sector...... 26 List of Tables Table 1: Total energy generation approved through REFIT3 ...................................................................... 16 Table 2: Direct comparison of REFIT2 and REFIT3 support levels............................................................... 17 Table 3: REFIT2: capacity categorization..................................................................................................... 17 Table 4: Predicted growth of ethanol share in the transport sector 2010-2040........................................ 18
  • 5. Ireland Inside Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Page1 Inside Ireland The Republic of Ireland is a country with 4.46 million people (year 2010) located on the ho- monymous island, which is to the northwest of Great Britain. The territory is divided between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. For the purposes of this report, Ireland will refer to the Republic of Ireland. An Economy in Transition From the beginning of the ‘90s up to the global economic crisis in 2007, Ireland’s real domestic product per head grew dramatically, transform- ing the Republic from one of the poorest coun- tries Europe to one of the ten richest in the world. The main cause of this incredible and fast transi- tion is due to its openness to free international trade and investment as well as its business- friendly industrial and tax policies. The Irish economy was strongly hit by the inter- national financial crisis, so some sectors have been contracting; however, the country is ex- pected to fully recover and start growing at the previous pace in the coming years.
  • 6. Ireland Inside Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page2 Current Demand Situation Presently, the Republic of Ireland is facing major problems in terms of energy security and sus- tainability, since approximately the 87.7% (15,576 kilotons of oil equivalent) of its demand in 2010 was satisfied by fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas, which were imported from neighbouring countries, like United Kingdom. One of the main reasons why Ireland has such a strong dependence on oil products is that the transport sector is largely dependent on road transportation with one vehicle for every two people and a steady decline in rail freight in favour of lorries. Moreover, as an Island, the Republic is charac- terized by heavy planes and boat traffic. The transport is the sector that has been increasing most rapidly over the last 15 years and repre- sents the largest sectorial energy demand with a 27% share. Notably, oil was recently discovered off the Irish coast; so the way in which the country utilizes this resource going forward will have a great impact on their energy profile. The other very important contribution in terms of energy supply comes from the natural gas which has become the most important fuel for electricity generation, gradually replacing the older coal and oil plants.
  • 7. Ireland Inside Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page3 Figure 1: Historical energy demand in Ireland 1995-2010 by sector Figure 2: Historical energy demand in Ireland 1995-2010 by fuel
  • 8. Ireland Inside Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page4 Figure 3: Energy Demand in Ireland in 2010 by fuel
  • 9. Ireland Inside Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page5 Better Energy In terms of renewable energy, wind, especially offshore, will become a more important source of energy in the coming years and already has a capacity of around 1700 MW as of 2010. Finally, as an island, Ireland has great potential for wave and tidal energy; however, the tech- nology to harness these resources on a large scale is not expected to be ready until around 2020. For all these reasons, the emissions of CO2 per capita in Ireland, which was equal 2010 to 10589 kg/person in 2010, are still above the EU targets in terms of GHG reduction and the goals of the Kyoto Protocol, both of which will be difficult to achieve by 2020. [1]
  • 10. Policy in the EU and Ireland Estrella, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page6 Policy in the EU and Ireland Ireland supports the European Energy Policy with specific energy policy objectives that are aimed to fight climate change while simultane- ously increasing energy security and competi- tiveness in the market. A significant challenge arises from the combination between a growing economy and the limitations due to the pres- ence of remote geographic locations with re- stricted indigenous fuel resources. The White Paper, Climate Change Strategy and National Energy Efficiency Action Plan are some of many important documents that reflect the Govern- ment’s energy policy objectives and commit- ment towards a sustainable future, promoting Security of Energy Supply, Sustainability of Ener- gy, Competitiveness of Energy Supply. One of the strategic goals underlined in “Actions to Promote the Sustainability of Energy Supply and Use” is to “Maximize Energy Efficiency and energy savings across the economy” [2]. The main objective behind energy efficiency is to meet demand with less energy overall demand. Ireland’s contributions to the EU’s 20/20/20 goals are to have 16% of their energy come from renewable sources and have a 20% in- crease in efficiency, with respect to 2001-2005 values, by 2020. In order to achieve this, they are relying on the energy for heating to increase to 12% being generated from renewable sources by 2020. Heating demand was determined to be outside the scope of this project as there is little reliable user-level data. Stoves or heaters that are fed directly by residents provide much of residential heating, rather than utility level district heating, which could provide more reliable data. Ireland has set a target of having 40% of their electricity generated from renewable sources by 2020. 90% of that is expected to come from wind [3].
  • 11. Ireland Tomorrow Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page7 Ireland Tomorrow The following study considers Ireland’s emis- sions and energy profiles under several condi- tions:  Business as Usual: The first scenario aims to simulate how the energy scenario of the fol- lowing 30 years would evolve if no policies of any sort or new technologies were put in place. For this goal the only variables taken into consideration were the estimated pro- jections up to 2040 of GDP, Population and Income per capita. This scenario has allowed to individualize the critical points of the Irish energy system and to define how policies could be implemented in order to minimize the energy demand and the GHG emissions.  Demand Side Management: The demand side management aims to reduce peak load by shifting loads from high peak to off-peak periods while increasing efficiency of all economic sectors (industrial, commercial and public services) and domestic sectors.  20/20/20 + Offshore Generation: The 20/20/20 scenario aims to put in place all the policies that Ireland has committed to in order for Europe to meet its emissions, re- newables and efficiency. This includes ex- panding renewables capacities, changing the structure of the transport sector and in- creasing efficiency in the industrial and commercial sectors. An additional scenario, + Offshore Generation, has been created to show the effects of additional offshore re- newable sources including wave, tidal and offshore wind turbines, which Ireland has proposed, but not committed to due to technical, environmental and economic un- certainty. Finally, a more detailed compari- son on the Global Warming Potential has been addressed. The project has been developed with a particu- lar focus on the electricity flow and its associat- ed effects within the country in terms of energy demand, transformation, and environmental impact. The Approach The first step was to define a data structure in order to schematize and better understand the energy flow occurring in the model. For this purpose, a top-down approach has been used, starting from the final energy demand by sector and going down to the energy transfor- mation to conclude with the primary resources available or imported by the country. Then, these three main branches (Demand, Transformation and Resources) were further split in more specific branches, which are de- tailed in the following figures. Key Assumptions In order to define trends, projections of some key parameters into the future have been cre- ated. Such factors include Gross Domestic Projection (GDP) of the country, Population Growth and Income per capita. These three critical aspects have been defined in LEAP under the section Key Parameters. Figure 4: Key Assumption breakdown
  • 12. Ireland Tomorrow Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page8 This approach permitted the association be- tween changes in demand and these key pa- rameters with which they are strongly connect- ed. For example, growth in residential energy demand was linked to Population Growth, in- dustrial demand to GDP, personal vehicle use tied to income per capita. The above-mentioned trends for the key pa- rameters have been taken both from national and international sources and have been esti- mated taking into consideration the wider point-of-view of the European context in terms of future expected growth. Demand Concerning energy demand, the country can be divided into five broad categories: Industry, Residential, Commercial and Public Services, Transport and Agriculture and Fishing. Each of these sectors has been further split in more detailed and specific subsections, detailed in Figure 5. Figure 5: Demand breakdown For this project, the baseline demand values were for the most part taken directly from the SEAI 2011 Energy Balance. To create a complete breakdown of demand and activity level, re- quired the combination of some subsectors, due to discrepancies between how Ireland’s Central Statistics Office and SEAI group industries. The level of detail required by the energy de- mand section of the model is necessary because it is a driving-force that affects all the conse- quent sections such as transformation and availability of resources. Furthermore, such a high-level of precision has permitted better visualization and therefore analysis of how various sectors affect and react to the implementation of different scenarios.
  • 13. Ireland Tomorrow Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page9 Transformation Energy transformation was split into four branches: Transmission and Distribution, Pumped Hydro, Electricity Generation and Oil Refining. The primary concern of the model is electricity, but Ireland’s single pumped hydroelectric stor- age station and lone oil refinery represent cru- cial links in the energy chain as Ireland contin- ues to develop. Data Sources Once the structure of the model was defined, the next step was to collect information and data for each of these branches, in order to simulate future scenarios in LEAP. One of the key aspects which was taken into consideration was the reliability of the source, since the amount of different and contrasting data could have affected the functioning of the tool in the following phases. For all these reasons and its completeness of data, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ire- land (SEAI) has been chosen as the main source of information to be taken into consideration in the design of the model. Each year the SEAI provides a series of updated and detailed reports on the actual energy con- sumption of the country as well as projections on estimated developments. Whenever additional information was needed that was not available from SEAI, data from reputable national and international institutions such as Central Statistical Office of Ireland (CSO), OECD, IEA and EuroStat were used. Growth Predictions Finally, other independent variables that are expected to be independent or loosely correlat- ed to the already defined parameters, such as the growth rate for each industrial sector, have been, in part, projected by LEAP based on the historical trend, usually over a fifteen year peri- od, generally 1995-2010. On some occasions, especially during the defini- tion of Activity Level, not enough historical data was available. Hence, the trend following the little data found was observed and judged based on feasibility. In the industrial sector, for exam- ple, only activity levels of 2009 and 2010 could be defined; however, due to the economic and political circumstances, the values were too controversial to use for the projection of future growth. In this case, trends were established based on by studying projections stated in sev- eral documents established by viable sources. The process of defining growth varied between sectors and scenarios as the data found was inconsistent and could rarely be entered into LEAP directly. Manipulation of data to make them comparable and usable was needed.
  • 14. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page10 Future Projections using LEAP Business as Usual The business as usual (BAU) scenario is mainly based on the key parameters and their project- ed growth up to 2040. Assumptions The demand requirements will be met based on Ireland’s current dispatch merit order, with the hypothesis that the exogenous capacity will be increased based only on the already existing technologies. Industry  The share of industrial added value to GDP and its subsectors has been proposed to re- main constant into the future, with an elas- ticity of 0.62 with respect to GDP (trend ob- served from historical data).  The energy intensity related to the industry has experienced a constant decrease over the past 10 year and will continue doing so. Commercial and Public Services  Services will follow the historical trend Residential  Future projections are correlated to equal- ized disposable income per individual and the population growth. In both cases, these pa- rameters experience a future growth, hence both the energy intensity per person and the activity level of the residential sector are ex- pected to increase. Transport [4]:  With increasing income, the stock of private cars and fuel consumption per car rise, main- ly due to the purchase of bigger cars  The Public Passenger Services sector is slow- ly, but steadily increasing with population.  Demand for rail freight decreases as road freight increases. This simultaneous increase in road freight indicates a modal shift be- tween rail and road freight transport.  The number of passengers commuting by rail has increased. Figure 6: BAU Projection of Primary Resource Requirements 2010-2040
  • 15. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page11 Transformation  To meet increasing demand, additional en- dogenous capacity for existing technologies has been planned. New power plants will be installed according to their dispatch merit order and the share has been supposed to be constant. Results With respect to the total demand, the projected trends of the overall energy consumption is expected to almost double from about 11000 ktoe in 2010 to about 21000 ktoe in 2040, with a +45% in respect to the baseline year in 2030. The most critical growth rates are expected to be in the transport sector, followed by residen- tial. A general decrease in the Agriculture and Fishing is observed by 2040. The rapid growth of the two above-mentioned sectors results in a significant increase in de- mand for natural gas, which is the main fuel used for electricity generation, and oil products, which are used for transportation. Key Outcomes  Though transport is often regarded as the most problematic sector, the residential demand of energy must not be neglected as it represents an important share.  The use of fossil fuels for both these two sectors put Ireland in a very critical situation in terms of energy dependency, since most of these resources are imported from neighbouring countries.  Due to the increased use of electric appli- ances, electricity also assumes a great role in satisfying the final energy demand. This proves great potential to replace many elec- tric generating processes with cleaner sys- tems based on renewable energy sources.  Likewise, demand minimization through efficiency measures is facilitated. Figure 7: BAU Projection of Demand Requirements 2010-2040
  • 16. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page12 Demand Side Management (DSM) To guarantee that demand is met at all times, energy (especial electric) generating plants are built according to the maximum peak load. Ire- land’s peak load is approximately 4800MW, about 1000MW higher than the average load. In addition, the increase in electricity demand in the past years has resulted in the need for greater generation capacity as current stations are stretched to their limits during peak hours [5]. A shifting of load from peak to off-peak pe- riods would greatly enhance utilization of in- stalled generators and reduce fuel cost by, for example, reducing spinning reserve. DSM pays a fundamental role in promoting en- ergy efficiency and managing load; DSM is a key factor in the implementation of Ireland’s sus- tainable energy policy. DSM offers a number of advantages including [5] [6] :  Management of demand-supply balance between intermittent renewables in distrib- uted power systems; demand is better matched with different renewable energy availability.  Improvement of system operation efficien- cy; improved use of system infrastructure  Improvement of transmission and distribu- tion efficiency; lower costs  Reduction of the generation margin; in- creased consumer growth capacity  Increased availability The benefits of DSM play even a larger role when considering the increased use of renewa- ble energies in the system. Though the DSM approach faces great challenges in assuming a competitive role (versus traditional approaches) and solutions require an increased complexity within the system, the scenario simulated illus- trates the positive effects DSM implementation can have on Ireland’s energy demand and ca- pacity generation [6]. Assumptions Two key aspects were considered for the DSM scenario: peak load management and efficiency improvement. Peak Load Management This shifts load from high peak to off-peak peri- ods, increasing the scope for reduction of gen- eration capacity needs. This would increase the Figure 8: Peak Load Shape comparison between BAU and DSM scenarios (i.e. before and after peak load management) Average 68%
  • 17. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page13 utilization of generating plant capacity, reducing the need for plants to ramp up and down, and would therefore increase the efficiency of gen- eration investment. According to the SEAI report on Demand Side Management, Ireland has committed to national energy savings of 20% by 2020, corresponding to peak load reduction potential of 1233 MW, however, for the DSM scenario a more aggres- sive plan has been selected as per Ireland’s Na- tional Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP). Thus a total peak load savings of 1344 MW was chosen. Load was removed from the high peak period and distributed to the lower end of the off-peak period, flattening the curve (see Figure 8). The new values are represented as a percentage of the BAU peak load. Efficiency Improvement Energy intensity reduction potential can be cat- egorized into two main categories: technical and economic potential1 .  For the purpose of this scenario, the eco- nomic potential was selected.  As per the SEAI report on DSM, the eco- nomic energy efficiency savings potential was estimated to be a total of 25,640 GWh (approximately 26% of 2008 usage).  Industry, Residential and Commer- cial/Public services sectors were chosen to reflect this decrease in energy intensities. 1 Technical potential , is an estimate of the total technically feasible reduction from an engineering perspective, by putting in place all energy efficiency and reduction measures. Technical potential does not take into consideration any costs. The economic potential refers to those measures that are cost effective under current conditions.  There is a decreasing trend of overall diesel usage; however an increasing tendency to- wards electricity and natural gas as fuels.  Industry will continue decreasing the final energy intensity as has been done histori- cally between 1995 and 2005, however more aggressively.  Due to limited information, energy savings could only be applied up until the year 2020. Hence, energy demand values after 2020 tend to stay constant up until 2040, though in reality they should reduce. Results  By 2030, energy demand in the DSM sce- nario show 11.8 ktoe versus 16.5 ktoe in BAU (a difference of almost 30%). See Figure 11.  Between 2010 to 2030, total savings in primary resource requirements in natural gas, oil products, renewables and solid fuels amount to approx. 69m, 44m, 2m, 13.5m tonnes of oil equivalent  The flattening of the BAU load curve and distribution of peak loads to time slices with lower loads, as well as the implement- ed efficiency measures, resulted in a de- crease in generation capacity transfor- mation outputs Figure 9: Potential Savings in the Residential, Industry and Commercial Sectors by 2020
  • 18. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page14  Due to peak load management, DSM scenar- io does not require any endogenous capacity additions.  In DSM, as a combined result from efficiency improvements and peak load management, future energy demand can be met soely through exogenous capacity. Figure 11: Reduction in energy demand in DSM scenario. Figure 10: Reduction in Primary Requirements from BAU scenario (by fuel)
  • 19. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page15  In 2030, the avoided total endogenous capacity in DSM is 3971 MW. Key Outcomes  There is significant opportunity for energy efficiency implementation within most of the demand sectors  The greatest energy demand reduction can be observed in the decrease of the Residen- tial Sector, which will also considerably re- duce the global warming potential  DSM represents a policy where behavioural change plays a key role and needs to be sup- ported by governmental incentives and com- plex infrastructural changes. Figure 12: Avoided endogenous capacity additions through DSM implementation iny Electricity Generation Processes)
  • 20. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page16 New Policy: Meeting 2020 Com- mitments and Beyond Ireland’s contributions to the EU’s 202020 goals are to have 16% of their energy come from re- newable sources and have a 20% increase in efficiency from 2001-2005 levels. To do this they are relying on the increase of energy for heating to 12% from renewable sources. However, heating demand is not within the scope of this project, due to the lack of user level information. Ireland has set a target of having 40% of their electricity generated from renewable sources by 2020. 90% of that is expected to come from wind [3]. Assumptions For this project, five different sub-scenarios have been selected to visualize Ireland’s policy measures toward their 2020 goals and beyond. Most of the scenarios are based on the 202020 policies and an additional sub-scenario was cre- ated to show the effects of the introduction of offshore energy harnessing capacity, in line with the government’s stated goals of 4.5 GW of offshore wind and 1.5 GW of ocean energy. REFIT2 and REFIT3  The additional electricity generation capacity from renewables will be primarily met with the new feed-in tariff programs, REFIT2 and REFIT3, which focus on onshore wind, hydro, and landfill gas and Biomass, respectively.  REFIT2 [7] was approved in January of 2012 and is restricted to the construction of 4000 MWe, with no plant being larger than 125 MW.  REFIT3 [8] was approved in late 2011 and is open to applicants to create up to 310 MW of biomass generation by 2015, largely con- sisting of CHP plants.  While both encouraged the building of re- newable energy capacity by providing pref- erential price support for electricity coming from the newly constructed generation ca- pacity, these programs have individual appli- cation of processes and pricing. The intended support levels in 2010 are shown in Table 2.  The REFIT schemes have stipulations that the renewable sources must be built by 2015 and it was assumed that the total capacity of each scheme would be met and available in 2015.  REFIT3 was simple to implement, because the capacity categories were clearly de- scribed.  The efficiencies for these technologies were taken from the IEA. [9]  The REFIT2 capacity was split a few different ways as follows based on theoretical capaci- ties are shown in Table 3 [10] Anaerobic Digester High Efficiency CHP 50 MW Biomass High Efficiency CHP 100 MW Biomass Combustion (including peat co-firing) 160 MW Total 310 MW Table 1: Total energy generation approved through REFIT3
  • 21. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page17 Transportation  Ireland will reduce emissions from transpor- tation by increasing the amount of electrified vehicles to 10% of the fleet in 2020 and re- quiring the level of biofuels in the fuel mix to be 4% in 2010 and increasing gradually until 2020  The government has also committed to 6% biofuels in the fuel mix in 2013  The electrification will be supported by tax breaks for buyers of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles  The share of passenger kilometers for Road Private Car fueled by electricity was in- creased to 10% and the share of public pas- senger services was increased to 5%, to ac- count for the electrification of some taxis and buses.  The increase in fuel share of ethanol for Road Freight, Road Private Car, and Public Passen- ger Services are shown in Table 4. Technology Category Price (€/MWh) REFIT2 Onshore wind > 5MW 66.35 ≤5MW 68.68 Hydro ≤ 5MW 83.81 Landfill Gas Biomass 81.49 REFIT3 AD CHP ≤ 500 kWe 150 > 500 kWe 130 AD ≤ 500 kWe 110 (non CHP) > 500 kWe 100 Biomass CHP ≤ 1500 kWe 140 > 1500 kWe 120 Biomass Combustion (non-CHP) Energy crops 95 Other biomass 85 Table 2: Direct comparison of REFIT2 and REFIT3 support levels. Capacity Reasoning Onshore Wind 3675 MW (2015) Remainder of REFIT2 capacity of 2015 6000 MW (2020) Government goal of 2020 Hydro 20 MW (2015) Ireland is focusing on micro hydro, so the capacity gain is likely to be small Landfill Gas 304.7 MW (2015) Based on LFG feasibility study 1 Table 3: REFIT2: capacity categorization
  • 22. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page18 Efficiency Measures  Ireland will have national efficiently increase of 20%, meaning a 20% reduction in demand from the average level from 2001-2005. This includes an internal goal of the government to achieve 33% in the public sector [11]. They will achieve through education, investing in retrofitting large buildings, creating green procurement standards, installing energy ef- ficient lighting and other measures, which are put forth in their National Energy Effi- ciency Action Plan (NEEAP).  The average demand for each sector for the years 2001 -2005 was calculated based on SEAI’s Energy Balance  The Energy Intensities for the Commercial and Private Services sectors were deter- mined by taking 80% and 66%, respectively, of the average demand from 2001-2005 for each of the sectors and dividing by the pro- jected population in that year.  For the Residential Sector, the projected savings in the year 2020 was taken from NEEAP and subtracted from the BAU forecast 20/20/20  The above scenarios were combined to form an overall picture of how the policies that have been put into place will help Ireland meet its commitments. Offshore Energy  The offshore technologies can, and will, contribute greatly to the sustainable energy future of Ireland, but no concrete policies have been put into place to encourage their implementation and there is great uncertain- ty surrounding the availability and cost of tidal and wave energy technologies.  Ireland is very interested the prospect of offshore energy. The government has stated in the past that they would like to have 500 MW of wave and tidal energy by 2020 [2]; however, there is some doubt that these technologies will not be ready for utility level deployment until after 2020  Similarly, there is potential for offshore wind to contribute to renewable energy goals, even with the existing levels of technology  A draft of the Offshore Renewable Energy Development Plant (ORDEP) is currently un- der public review and preliminary environ- mental impact assessments have been car- ried out. This plan envisions 1500 MW of ocean energy and 4500 MW of offshore wind by 2030 20/20/20+Offshore  This scenario combines the renewable capac- ity additions and demand transformations of the 20/20/20 set up with the additional off- shore generation that the government has envisioned of wave, tidal and offshore wind. Year 2010 2013 2016 2020 2030 2040 % Biofuels 4 6 8 10 15 19 Table 4: Predicted growth of ethanol share in the transport sector 2010-2040
  • 23. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page19 Results Figure 13: Electricity Transformation under REFIT 2 and 3 16,2% 2,1% 0,4% 4,8% 55,9% 1,0% 8,8% 4,5% 6,4% Wind Wave Refinery Feedstocks Peat Natural Gas Hydro Bitumen Biomass Biogas Figure 14: Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs under 202020+Offshore scenario in the year 2020 13,1% 0,4% 5,1% 59,4% 1,1% 9,3% 4,7% 6,8% Wind Refinery Feedstocks Peat Natural Gas Hydro Bitumen Biomass Biogas Figure 15: Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs under 202020 scenario in the year 2020 InputEnergyContent(MillionGJ)
  • 24. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page20 Transformation As seen in Figure 13, the feed-in tariffs have the power to momentarily reduce the use of certain conventional fuels in the total energy mix, most notably eliminating Residual Fuel Oil between 2010 and 2027 and delaying large growth in diesel until 2030.These effects are more clearly seen when comparing the Electricity generation input fuel mixes for 202020 and 202020+Offshore in Figure 15 and Figure 14, respectively. Wind and other renewables cut into the natural gas and coal that are the pre- dominate sources of generation. It is interesting to note that neither of the scenarios achieves the goal of 40% of electricity from renewables, with 25% for 202020 and 30% for 202020+offshore. Applying the REFIT 2 and 3 schemes shows an increase in the transfor- mation capacity of Renewables growing by 200% from 2010 to 2040. With the REFIT2 sce- nario, the contribution share of wind to total electricity generation increases from 3.7% to 11.4% by 2040. A significant increase in Biomass contribution to total electricity generation is also seen, from 2.5% to 7.6%. Demand As expected, Figure 16 shows how the measures taken in the transportation sector replace some gasoline and diesel consumption with biofuels and electricity, but as the differences Figure 17 show, simply electrifying part of the transporta- tion system, does not improve the energy situa- tion alone – it has to be coupled with an in- crease in electricity generation from renewa- bles. The introduction of wind and biofuels to electricity generation allows the replacement of some oil products and a reduction in energy derived from coal and natural gas. This is an indication that planning for further renewables capacity is necessary. The effects of Transportation and Efficiency can be seen on demand in Figure 17. While the cu- mulative 202020 scenarios show a decline in energy requirements, the Transportation sce- nario actually uses more because the energy intensities of electricity and biofuels is lower than conventional petrol and diesel. Diesel Electricity Ethanol Gasoline Jet Kerosene LPG Residual Fuel Oil Demand: Energy Demand Final Units Scenario: RES-T2020 vs. BAU 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 MillionGigajoules 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 Figure 16: Energy Demand in the Transportation Sector
  • 25. Future Projections using LEAP Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page21 Figure 18: Energy Mix under 202020 Scenario in the year 2020 Total energy demanded is dominated by non- electricity uses in all of the scenarios, with elec- tricity accounting for around 20%, as seen for the year 2020 in Figure 18. In the 202020 sce- nario, the largest expansions are in Diesel and Jet Kerosene, which account for most of the growth in demand. This indicates that for ad- vancements to be sustainable, other aspects of the transportation sector, such as aviation, need to be attended to. The model could partially overlook this, as it does not account for the effects of the European carbon market. It is also difficult to curtail the demand for aviation be- cause Ireland is an island and planes play a big role in the movement of people and goods. 3% 2% 13% 9% 10% 9%19% 27% 2% 1% 2% 3% Energy Demanded Final Units Residual Fuel Oil Peat Natural Gas Kerosene Jet Kerosene Gasoline Electricity Diesel Coal Bituminous Coal Anthracite Biomass All Others2020 = 457 PJ All Others Biogas Biomass Bitumen Crude Oil Diesel Ethanol Gasoline Hydro Natural Gas Peat Wind Demand: Energy Demand Primary Units Scenario: RES-T2020 vs. BAU 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 All Others Biogas Biomass Bitumen Crude Oil Diesel Ethanol Gasoline Hydro Natural Gas Peat Wind Demand: Energy Demand Primary Units Scenario: 202020 vs. BAU 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 MillionGigajoules 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 Figure 17: Changes in Primary Energy for the Transport Sector with Transport Policy alone and with additional renewable energy
  • 26. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page22 Key Outcomes  Electricity is only 20% of Ireland’s energy demand, yet it is receiving the most atten- tion for meeting the 202020 goals.  Based on this model of the policies Ireland has set forward, they will not meet their 202020 goals; however: o This model does not directly consider heating demand or generation which will have impact on the overall target o This is not entirely unexpected as Ire- land has stated that its NEEAP is not suf- ficient enough to meet the efficiency targets. [11]  Policies are most effective when used in tandem with each other and their effects on each other must be accounted for  The Renewable Energy capacity additions become more significant as the growth of demand is slowed or reversed.  The ability of Ireland to meet its goals may hinge on the development timeframe and cost of ocean energies. All Others Biomass Coal Anthracite Coal Bituminous Diesel Electricity Gasoline Jet Kerosene Kerosene Natural Gas Peat Residual Fuel Oil Demand: Energy Demand Final Units: Energy Only Scenario: 202020 2010 2020 2030 2040 MillionGigajoules 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Figure 19: Energy Mix under 202020
  • 27. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page23 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Business as Usual The global warming potential (GWP) in 2010 summed up to approx. 24.41 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) and is expected to grow to 37.3 million tCO2e in 2030 and more than double to 48.3 million tCO2e by 2040, equivalent to an annual growth of 2.3%, if things continue the way they are going so far. The almost con- stant trend in industry is due to the offset caused by decreasing energy intensity, despite the increase in activity level. The greatest global warming potential can be traced back to the Residential and Transport sectors that add up to 31.2% and 47.8%, respec- tively by 2030. Though the Residential sector reaches its peak of global warming potential share in 2020 with 31.8%, the rapid increase of the Transport sector offsets this growing share. Throughout all years, oil products make up the greatest proportion of the global warming po- tential growing up to the share of 73.7% from the total production of 37.3 million tCO2e in 2030. This can be easily explained by the use of oil across all sectors, taking a great part in satis- fying the residential and transport energy needs (including electricity and heating). Figure 21: Projection of GHG emmision in the BAU scenario 2010-2040 Figure 20: Projection of tonnes of CO2 Equivalent and %-share of total emissions by demand sector 2010-2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 m tonnes CO2 Eq %- share m tonnes CO2 Eq %- share m tonnes CO2 Eq %- share m tonnes CO2 Eq. %- share Industry 3.6 15.1 3.7 12.5 3.9 10.5 4.2 8.6 Residential 7.7 31.9 9.5 31.8 11.6 31.2 14.2 29.3 Services 2.3 9.4 2.6 8.7 3.4 9.1 4.8 10.0 Transport 9.8 40.7 13.4 44.7 17.9 47.8 24.8 51.4 A & F 0.7 3.0 0.7 2.3 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.7 TOTAL 24.1 29.9 37.3 48.3
  • 28. Conclusion Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page24 The overall need for natural gas is also great and is 3.3 times larger in 2030 than in 1995 (1.6 times larger than in 2010). The proportion from biomass, a constant 0.1%, is almost negligible. Looking at the breakdown of the fuels, it is clear that diesel accounts for most of the oil needed, followed by kerosene and gasoline adding to 35%, 13.6% and 10.43% respectively in 2030. The large demand of diesel can be justified by the increasing preference of diesel over gaso- line, especially in transport. Figure 22: Global Warming potential in BAU projection by grouped fuel, 2010-2040 Figure 23: Global Warming Potential in BAU projection by fuel, 2010-2040
  • 29. Conclusion Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page25 Mitigation Results Looking at the historical demand between 1995 and 2001, an increase in oil can be observed, which is then followed by heavy fluctuations between 2001 and 2010. It is apparent that the use of oil products has the greatest effect on global warming, mainly because of high demand for oil to satisfy energy needs. If all policy scenarios are implemented (“202020+offshore”), a great reduction GWP can be observed with a total savings of 236.8 million tCO2e from 2010 to 2040. The measures “DSM”, “Efficiency 2020” and “Transporta- tion2020”, each are individually effective. Figure 24: Historical energy demand by fuel 1995-2010 Figure 25: Projected Global Warming Potential for all scenarios 2010-2040
  • 30. Conclusion Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page26 Key Outcomes  The scenarios “Efficiency2020” and “DSM” have a very similar improving effect on global warming potential, while “Transpor- tation” shows a considerable smaller effect than either.  If implemented individually, the GWP would only be between 75 - 94% of BAU by 2030. However, if implemented simultane- ously, the global warming potential in 2030 would be under 75% of BAU  Costs would play a key role in the imple- mentation of these scenarios for GHG re- duction. Figure 26: Global Warming Potential when all scenarios are implemented "202020+offshore". As can be seen from this figure, the GHG reduction in the residential sector, followed by the transport sector.
  • 31. Conclusion Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page27 Conclusion Ireland is currently facing major challenges con- cerning its future in terms of energy production and sustainability, both with regards to the se- curity of supply and the impact that the current intense use of fossil fuels is having on the envi- ronment. Moreover, The Business as Usual Scenario has shown how if strong policies are not put in place in the near future, Ireland will be in a very diffi- cult position for the commitments it has made to the European Community and for its future potential economic growth. However, The Demand Side Management sce- nario has shown like even small changes in terms of optimizations of the peak loads and decrease of the energy demand could bring important benefits. In addition to this, the Republic also shows a tremendous potential in terms of renewable sources, for the most part coming from the wind, both onshore and offshore, and the ex- ploitation of the energy deriving from the sea, such as tidal and wave energy. These technologies would represent a unique opportunity for the country to both reduce its dependency from oil and gas import as well as to satisfy the internal increasing demand of electricity while reducing the environmental impact deriving from the GHG emitted in the atmosphere. The only actual limit to the implementation of these promising technologies is the early stage of technological and economic development, on which the Republic of Ireland should invest more R&D resources in order to make them become a reality in the nearest future. If all these efforts are put in place, together with an increasing share of electrification of the transportation sector, a brighter and more sus- tainable future for the Republic of Ireland will be likely to happen. All in all, this project underlines the fact that three main strategies form the building blocks towards a sustainable energy and resource use, i.e. towards a sustainable and energy secure future: tackling energy demand, energy efficien- cy and full or partial substitution with renewa- ble energies.
  • 32. Looking Forward Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page28 Looking Forward Being an Island, Ireland is and will most likely always be dependent to a certain degree on the import of fossil fuels that offer a cheap and reli- able source of energy for base-load generation. As a matter of fact, even though tidal energy could in the future represent a potential source of constant generation, the overall capacity and the real potential application of this technology in the short time can’t be estimated. For this reason, different forms of constant en- ergy supply should be investigated in order to reduce this dependency. One interesting option to be addressed could be in the near future to implement a more efficient and extensive system of pumped hydro storage that could absorb the excess of energy electrici- ty produced by wind during the low demand periods and give it back during the peak-loads hours. Finally, another important potential evaluation to be addressed would be to reduce the interna- tional traffic caused by flights and boats be- tween Ireland and England, which are fossil fuels-based, by evaluating the construction of the Irish Sea Fixed Crossing, [12] a proposed tunnel that would connect the two island. This would allow to dramatically increasing the traffic of people and merchandise that are transported by electric trains.
  • 33. Bibliography Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page29 Bibliography [1] "IRELAND - Energy Mix Fact Sheet," European Commission, 2007. [2] Government White Paper, ”Delivering A Sustainable Energy Future For Ireland,” Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources, Dublin, 2007. [3] Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, ”DRAFT Offshore Renewable Energy Development Plan (OREDP),” SEAI, 2010. [4] M. Howley, E. Dennehy och B. Ó'Gallachóir, ”Energy in Transport,” Sustainable Energy Ireland, 2009. [5] F. Wheatley, ”The Case for Electricity Demand Side Management in Ireland,” Engineers Journal, 2004. [6] G. Strbac, “Demand Side Management: Benefits and Challenges,” Energy Policy, no. 36, pp. 4419-4426, 2008. [7] DCENR, ”REFIT 2,” Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, Dublin, 2012. [8] DCENR, ”REFIT 3,” Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, Dublin, 2012. [9] IEA, ”Biomass for Power Generation and CHP,” IEA Energy Technology Essentials, nr ETE03, pp. 1-4, 2007. [10] Renewable Energy Information Office, ”Landfill Gas In Ireland - The Facts,” Irish Energy Centre - Renewable Energy Information Office, Ireland. [11] DCENR, ”Maximising Ireland’s Energy Efficiency,” Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, Dublin, 2009. [12] BBC News, "Bridge to Northern Ireland mooted," BBC, 22 August 2007. [Online]. Available: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/south_of_scotland/6958191.stm. [Accessed November 2012]. [13] World Bank, ”World dataBank,” 2012. [14] CSO, ”Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) - Preliminary results 2010,” Central Statistics Office, Dublin, 2011. [15] Central Statistics Office, ”Total Value of Products manufactured in Ireland and Sold - 2010 PRODCOM Product Sales €000's,” 2011. [Online]. Available: http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/industry/totalvalueofproductsmanufacturedinirelandandsold-
  • 34. Bibliography Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page30 2010prodcomproductsales000s/. [16] SEAI, Energy Balances 1990-2010, Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), 2010. [17] SEI, ”Energy in Transport,” Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI), 2007. [18] Eurostat, ”Energy - Yearly statistics 2008,” European Commission, 2010. [19] EuroStat, ”Transport Databases,” 2012. [20] Central Statistics Office, ”Road Traffic Volumes by Detailed Vehicle Type, statistical indicator and year,” Dublin, 2011. [21] Electricity Supply Board, ”Turlough Hill,” 2011. [Online]. Available: http://www.esb.ie/main/about-esb/turlough-hill-station.jsp. [22] EirGrid, ”Generation Adequacy Report 2010-2016,” EirGrid Plc, 2009. [23] EirGrid, SONI, ”All-Island Generation Capacity Statement 2012-2021,” EirGrid, SONI, 2011. [24] Commission fro Energy Regulation, ”Single Electricity Market: Principles of Dispatch and the Design of the Market Schedule in the Trading and Settlement Code,” 2011. [25] IEA-ETSAP and IRENA, ”Electricity Storage: Tehcnology Brief,” 2012. [26] EURELECTRIC, VGB, ”Efficiency in Electric Generation,” Union of the Electricity Industry – EURELECTRIC, VGB, 2003. [27] Forfás, The Irish Energy Tetralemma, Forfás, 2010. [28] US EPA, ”Biomass Combined Heat and Power Catalog of Technologies,” 2007. [29] US EIA, ”Updated Capial Cost Estimates for Electricity Generation Plants,” 2011. [30] ConocoPhillips, ”Marketing and Refining,” 2011. [Online]. Available: http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/about/company_reports/fact_book/Documents/Refining_ Marketing.pdf. [31] SEI, ”Energy In Industry,” 2007. [32] Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources , ”Delivering A Sustainable Energy Future for Ireland,” 2007. [33] S. E. I. (SEI), ”Demand Side Management in Ireland,” 2008.
  • 35. Bibliography Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page31 [34] Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, "Maximising Ireland’s Energy Efficinecy: The National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2009 – 2020," Dublin, 2008. [35] DCENR, Strategy for Renewable Energy 2012-2020, Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources (DCENR), 2008. [36] Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, ”Biofuel Obligation Scheme,” Dublin, 31/10/2012. [37] IRENA, ”Hydropower,” Irena Working Paper: Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series, vol. 1: Power Sector, nr 3/5, June 2012. [38] EirGrid, Soni, ”Principles of Dispatch and the Design of the Market Schedule in the Trading and Settlement Code,” SEM Committee, 2011. [39] ”Technology Data for Energy Plants - Generation of Electricity and District Heating, Energy Storage and Energy Carrier Generation and Conversion,” Energi Styrelsen, 2012. [40] Central Statistics Office, ”Population and Labour Force Projections 2011-2041,” Stationery Office, Dublin, 2008. [41] SEI, ESB International, ”Renewable Energy Resources in Ireland for 2010 and 2020 - A Methodology,” Sustainable Energy Ireland, Dublin, 2004. [42] Government of Ireland, ”National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) - First Progress Report,” 2012. [43] Northern Ireland Executive, The Scottisch Government, ”Irish-Scottish Links on Energy Study (ISLES) - Economic and Business Case Report,” EU - European Regional Development Fund, 2012. [44] EirGrid, ”Executive Summary: Interconnection Economic Feasibility Report,” EirGrid, 2009. [45] OECD/IEA, ”Energy Policies of IEA Countries - Ireland 2012 Review,” International Energy Agency, Paris, 2012. [46] EAP, ”2020 Vision - Protecting and improving Ireland's environment,” Environmental PRotection Agency, 2000. [47] SEI, ”Tidal & Current Energy Resources in Ireland,” Sustainable Energy Ireland, Dublin, 2008. [48] CIA, ”CIA World Factbook 2011,” Central Intelligence Agency, 2011. [49] IEA, ”Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency - Key insights form IEA Indicator Analysis,” OECD/IEA, 2008.
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  • 37. Bibliography Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Page33 [67] M. Howley, E. Dennehy, M. Holland och B. Ó'Gallachóir, ”Energy in Ireland 1990 – 2010,” Sustainable Energy Autority of Ireland (SEAI), 2011. [68] E. Dennehy, M. Howley, B. O'Gallachoir och M. Holland, Renewable Energy in Ireland 2011, Sustainable Energy Agency of Ireland (SEAI), 2012. [69] F. O’Leary, M. Howley och B. ÓGallachóir, ”Energy in the Residential Sector,” Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI), 2008. [70] F. O'Leary och B. Ó. Martin Howley, Energy in Industry, Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI), 2007. [71] Howley, Martin; Dennehy, Emer; Holland, Mary; Ó'Gallachóir, Brian, ”Energy Statistics 1990 – 2010,” Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), 2011. [72] J. F. Gerald, A. Bergin, T. Conefrey, S. Diffney, I. Kearney, S. Lyons, L. M. Valeri, K. Mayor och R. Tol, Medium-term review 2008-2015, Dublin: The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), 2008.
  • 38. Annex Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Pagei ANNEX - I Current Account – Historical Data References Key Assumptions Population [13] GDP [13] Income [14] Demand Industry Activity Level [14] Final Energy Intensity [15], [14] Residential Activity Level [13] Final Energy Intensity [15] Fuel Share [15] Commercial Services Activity Level [13] Total Energy [15] Public Services Activity Level [13] Total Energy [15] Transport Activity Level [13], [16], [17], [18], [19] Final Energy Intensity [15] Agriculture and Fishing Activity Level [14] Final Energy Intensity [15], [14] Fuel Share [15] Transformation Transmission and Distribution Losses [15] Pumped Hydro Exogenous Capacity [20], [22] Maximum Availability [20], [23] Capacity Credit [23] Historical Production [15] Process Efficiency [15], [20] Dispatch Order [24] Variable OM Cost [25] Capital Cost [25]
  • 39. Annex Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Pageii Electricity Generation Exogenous Capacity [22], [23] Maximum Availability [23] Capacity Credit [22], [23] Historical Production [16] Process Efficiency [26] Dispatch Order [24] Variable OM Cost [27], [28], [29] Capital Cost [28], [29] Oil Refining Exogenous Capacity [21] Maximum Availability [21] Historical Production [15] Process Efficiency [15] , [21] Peak Load Curve [22]
  • 40. Annex Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Pageiii ANNEX - II Business As Usual - Future Projections/Growth Values Reference Key Assumptions Population Based on Historical Trends GDP Based on Historical Trends Income Based on Historical Trends Demand Industry Activity Level [22] Final Energy Intensity [22] Commercial Services Activity Level [14] Total Energy Based on Historical Trends Public Services Activity Level [14] Total Energy [32] Transport Activity Level [16] Final Energy Intensity [16] Agriculture and Fishing Activity Level [14] Final Energy Intensity Based on Historical Trends
  • 41. Annex Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Pageiv ANNEX - III Demand Side Management – Growth Values Reference Demand Industry Final Energy Intensity [23] Residential Final Energy Intensity [23] Commercial Services Total Energy [23] Public Services Total Energy [23] Peak Load Curve Peak Load Savings [23]
  • 42. Annex Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana Better Energy for Ireland 2012 Pagev ANNEX - IV Demand Side Management – Growth Values Reference Transformation REFIT 2 New Capacity Target [10], [7] REFIT 3 New Capacity Target [8] Offshore New Capacity Target [3] Demand Efficiency Reduction Targets [24] Transportation Fuel Share Goals [25], [26]