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Future foresight

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Future foresight Tulevaisuuden ennakointi

Future foresight Tulevaisuuden ennakointi

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  • 1. ”THE CHALLENGE OF FUTURE FORESIGHT” 21 November 2012 Sari-Maarit Peltola University Teacher, Lic.Ph.
  • 2. From Determinism to Determination Three Kinds of People: • People who wonder what happened • People who watch things happen • People who make things happen Four Possible Attitudes: · Passivity · Reactivity · Proactivity · Foresight (Aaltonen 2005)
  • 3. 20 years ago there was NO: • Internet, World Wide Web, PCs, or mobile phones • European Union, WTO, ICC, or NATO in Eastern Europe • Talk of globalization, cloned sheep, genetically modified food and drugs, and stem cells repairing and enhancing the body • Robots surveying Mars • Asymmetrical warfare… and most believed that a nuclear WW III would have destroyed the world by now • AIDS (Aaltonen 2005)
  • 4. …in the NEXT 10 years • IQ becomes the competitive advantage in the global knowledge economy (personalized food, genetic engineering, computer enhanced learning) • Stem cells from cows and fish to produce meat • Nanotechnology reduces pollution, raises living standards of the poor • Life Extension begins to look like a realistic option while the aging population increases economic concerns • Solar Power Satellites for world’s electricity needs without producing greenhouse gases or nuclear waste • Genetic engineering and artificial intelligence creates new life forms that achieve awareness and evolve – with unknown economic consequences • A global brain emerges from Internet evolving later into Conscious-Technology (Aaltonen 2005)
  • 5. FUTURE FORESIGHT Foresight is about looking forward. Future is something that does not exist. (Wilenius 2008)
  • 6. WHY FORESIGHT? If a company is not driven by its vision, strategy and values, it will be unable effectively to manage and use its potential competence-based resources. The company’s future is influnced by both internal and external factors. Forecasting changes has become a core element of the strategic management of organizations. Idea of foresight is to look for options and opportunities for change before the business is forced to change. The main axis of competiton is between pioneers and early adopters of new business concepts, and reactive and conformist organizations. (Wilenius 2008)
  • 7. The Diffusion of Innovations (Rogers 1962; Wejnert 2002)
  • 8. BASIC RULES FOR FUTURE FORESIGHT (Wilenius 2008; see also Cornish 2004)
  • 9. Ennakoinnin tasot (Becker) Kokonaisvaltainen: ennakointi kattaa koko spektrin yhteiskunnasta teknologiaan (esim. Philips, DaimlerChrystler, Decathlon, Ericsson, EDF) Makro-tasoinen: ennakointi kattaa monia erilaisia aihealueita (Aventis, BASF; BT) Meso-tasoinen: ennakointi keskittyy tiettyyn tutkimuskenttään, tiedekysymykseen tai tuotealueeseen (DB, Volvo, Siemens, IBM) Mikrotasoinen: ennakointi liittyy johonkin määrättyyn tutkimusprojektiin tai tuotteeseen (P&G, Lufthansa) (Hiltunen 2012)
  • 10. (Ståhle & Ståhle 2006)
  • 11. FUTURE FORECASTS AND TRENDS Gigatrends Megatrends (Naisbitt 1982) Metatrends and weak signals Antitrends (see e.g. Nurmi et al. 2010; Ahola & Palkamo 2009; Ahvenainen et al. 2009)
  • 12. GIGATRENDS Growth of population, aging of population Economic growth Development of technology (Ahvenainen, Hietanen & Huhtanen 2009)
  • 13. Toteutunut ja ennustettu väestönkehitys Suomessa (Rantala 2006, 125)
  • 14. Väestö iän ja sukupuolen mukaan vuonna 2010 (Tilastokeskuksen väestöennuste, 2009)
  • 15. Väestö iän ja sukupuolen mukaan vuonna 2050, ennuste (Tilastokeskuksen väestöennuste, 2009)
  • 16. Kulutus ikäryhmittäin (VATT/Riihelä 2006) Nuoret käyttävät selvästi enemmän tietoliikennepalveluja kuin iäkkäämmät Ruokamenot eivät enää kasva iän myötä ja ruokamenojen tilanne ovat tulleet palvelumenot. 60+ ikäiset kuluttavat palveluja (esim. matkailu, asuminen) aiempaa selvästi enemmän ja palvelujen hankkimiseen kulutetaan selvästi enemmän rahaa kuin tavaroiden hankintaan 60+ ikäiset kuluttavat palvelujen lisäksi muita ikäryhmiä enemmän alkoholia ja tupakkaa
  • 17. GLOBAL MEGATRENDS Globalization Development of technology Changes in work (career, tasks, working methods)
  • 18. (Turkki 2010)
  • 19. (Haavisto 2010)
  • 20. What motivates future employees? Motivation is made up of three things: • Autonomy • Opportunity to develop own skills • Human interaction External motivation will shift to internal motivation. (Pink) (Halava & Pantzar 2010)
  • 21. Antitrends For EVERY big movement there is an ANTI movement. For example: • Megatrend: More from Less – Anti-trend: Less from Less • Megatrend: A Personal Touch – Anti-trend: Reducing Choice • Megatrend: Divergent Demographics - Anti-trend: Growing Global Health • Megatrend: On the move – Anti-trend: Fulfilment • Megatrend: iWorld – Anti-trend: Opting out (Harper 2010)
  • 22. WEAK SIGNALS IN ORGANIZATIONAL FUTURES LEARNING Organizational Strategic Foresight Weak learning signals Theories of organizational Theories of strategy, Theories of learning and change foresight tools perception, information and weak signals (Hiltunen 2010)
  • 23. Tools in strategy work Environmental scanning: SWOT-analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats), PESTEC (political, economic, social, technological, environmental/ecological, customers/cultural), etc. Scenarios: alternative futures (e.g. Shell) Scenario approach: the development of what a company can and want to be in these environments and finally formulating the strategy of company in the way the information provided by scenarios is taken into account. (Meristö in Hiltunen 2010) Futures mapping: description of the present stage, considering the shared vision, indentifying megatrends, identifying weak signals, making sceranios, preparing action strategies for scenarios, planning accions for near future. Megatrends Weak signals
  • 24. Examples of scenarios http://www.shippingscenarios.wartsila.com/ Sony’s scenarios
  • 25. Globaalit skenaariot (EVA 2009)
  • 26. (EVA 2009)
  • 27. Villit kortit Tapahtuma, joka tapahtuu nopeasti ja jolla on laaja-alaiset vaikutukset. (Hiltunen 2012) Mustat joutsenet (Taleb), strategiset yllätykset (Ansoff), odottamattomat tapahtumat (Lindkvist) Luonnon ja ihmisen aikaansaamat Esim. WTC 2001, Eyjafjallajökull-tulivuoren purkaus 2010…
  • 28. WEAK SIGNAL A weak signal is something strange, new, amazing, crazy that exist today and might foretell about forthcoming changes - or then not. (Hiltunen) Weak signals are warnings (external of internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact and/or to determine their complete responses. (Ansoff)
  • 29. DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SIGNAL (Coffman 1997)
  • 30. A weak signal test 1. Makes your colleguages to laugh 2. Your collaguages are opposing it: no way, it will never happen 3. Makes people to wonder 4. No one has heard about it before 5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it anymore (a tabu) 1-5 ticks and it IS a weak signal! (Hiltunen 2010)
  • 31. Where Can You Find Weak Signals? Surfing in the Internet Blogs, blogs, blogs Keeping your eyes and ears open (Hiltunen 2010) Hiltunen’s list of sources of weak signals: http://www.future.vuodatus.net/page/lahteita
  • 32. Futurists’ best sources for weak signals 1. Scientists/researchers 2. Futurists 3. Colleagues 4. Academic and scientific journals 5. Reports of research institutes 6. Consultants in areas other than futures 7. Popular science and economic magazines 8. Television/radio 9. Educational and scientific books 10. Internet: companies’ or organizations’ web pages 11. Ordinary people (e.g. observing them) 12. Media people 13. Internet: electronic journals 14. Internet: homepages of individual people/consultants 15. Email newsletters 16. Science fiction movies, books etc. 17. Government and other public sector reports 18. Internet: discussion groups 19. Internet: Blogs 20. Marginal/underground press 21. Periodicals 22. Local newspapers 23. Internet: electronic databases 24. Govenment officials 25. Email lists 26. Movies 27. Artists 28. Market research studies 29. Politicians 30. Annual reports of companies 31. Family/friends 32. Patents 33. Doctoral dissertations 34. Proposals for laws 35. Other source? 36. Art exhibitions (Hiltunen 2010)
  • 33. http://unhate.benetton.com/
  • 34. Elfoid P1-- a REAL android phone
  • 35. ACTVOD futures process Methods: • Futures workshop • Futures wheel (Glenn) • Futures table (Seppälä) • Soft systems methodology, CATWOD (customers, actors, transformation process, worldview,owners ja environmental constraints; Checkland) • Delphi (before or during a workshop) • Stories/scenarios • Action plan/strategy ACTVOD futures table • combines futures table and CATWOD • ACTVOD table (actors, customers, transformation process, values, obstacles ja drivers. (see e.g. Hietanen 2009)
  • 36. (Heinonen 2009)
  • 37. Delfoi-prosessi (delphi method) Aiheen valinta ja tarkennus Asiantuntijoiden valinta ja mahdolliset esihaastattelut Kysymysten kirjaaminen (esihaastattelujen pohjalta) Asiantuntijat vastaavat kysymyksiin anonyymisti (kierros 1) Vastausten analysointi ja kysymysten uudelleen muokkaus Asiantuntijat vastaavat kysymyksiin (kierros 2) Tarpeen tullen vaiheiden 5-6 toistaminen Tulosten analysointi ja raportointi (Hiltunen 2012)
  • 38. Future of communication http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu0ztxds Fis
  • 39. http://www.vtt.fi/tomorrow/ 2019 by Microsoft http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwj2s_5 e12U Watch your day in 2020
  • 40. Usefull sources Ahola, E. & Palkamo, A. (eds.) 2009. Megatrendit ja me. Tekesin katsaus 255/2009. Cornish, E. 2004. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. World Future Society. Betsheda. Hiltunen, E. 2012. Matkaopas tulevaisuuteen. Talentum. Hiltunen, E. 2010. Weak signals in Organizational Futures Learning. Academic dissertation. Helsinki School of Economics. Rantala, O. 2006. Talouden seuranta ja ennustaminen. In Nikinmaa, T. & Vartia, P. (eds.) Luotettavaa tietoa taloudesta. ETLA 60 vuotta. Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos. 113-126. Wilenius, M. 2008. Taming the dragon: how to tackle the challenge of future foresight. Business Strategy Series, 9 (2), 65-77.