ES4 intro sec


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Introduction presentation to the UK NERC's Earth System Science Summer School (ES4) (from the UoB convenor, 2007)

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ES4 intro sec

  1. 1. Welcome to the 2007 QUESTEarth System Science Summer School University of Bristol 10 - 21 September
  2. 2. QUEST ES4 people: Sarah Cornell - ES4 convenor Cat Downy - ES4 organiserQUEST office: Colin Prentice, Leader of QUEST Pru Foster Jo House Julie Shackleford
  3. 3. Colin Prentice - An introduction to Earth system science and QUEST Sociable time - coffee break Sarah Cornell - Thoughts on interdisciplinary Earth system science Karen Morgan, OBE - discussion Sociable time - tipples and nibbles
  4. 4. Interdisciplinarity: Learning by Doing Physical/hydrological systems Biogeochemistry Ecosystems Socio-ecological systems… all dynamic
  5. 5. Risk of Change in Freshwater Supply by 2100 ΔT<2°C 2°C<ΔT<3°C ΔT>3°C
  6. 6. The already committed risk of climate-induced biome shifts
  7. 7. Interdisciplinarity: Two frontiers to explore Natural & Social Sciences Science & Policytheory practice
  8. 8. My worldview is notsubjective or arbitrary - just partial “Post-Normal science” - carries an awareness of the limitations of a single viewpoint in understanding complex systems
  9. 9. Previously men could be divided simply into thelearned and the ignorant… But your specialist cannotbe brought in under either of these two categories.He is not learned, for he is formally ignorant of all thatdoes not enter into his specialty; but neither is heignorant, because he is “a scientist” and “knows” verywell his own tiny portion of the universe. We shall have to say that he is a learned ignoramus,which is a very serious matter, as it implies that he is aperson who is ignorant, not in the fashion of theignorant man, but with all the petulance of one who islearned is his own special line. (Ortega e Gassett, 1932)
  10. 10. Sustainability requires …new tools …new roles …new discourse
  11. 11. Sustainability requires …new tools …new roles …new discourse Post-Normal Science - when:•  facts are uncertain, •  values are in dispute, •  stakes are high, and •  decisions are urgent Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991, 1999
  12. 12. Providing arguments View of role of expert pure issue scientist advocate View of role of scienceLinear Stakeholder science arbiter honest broker Providing alternatives
  13. 13. Sustainability requires …new tools “Development that meets the needsof the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs".
  14. 14. Sustainability requires ciria …new tools “Development that meetsthe needs of the presentwithout compromising theability of future generationsto meet their own needs". copeland district council u mass
  15. 15. Socio-ecological system or socio-environmental systemImage © Gordon Charlton 2004 Image © Shawn Miller 2004 …complex adaptive systems where social and biophysical agents are interacting at multiple temporal and spatial scales! (Janssen and Ostrom, 2004)
  16. 16. How can we exploreSociety Nature the interconnections of nature and society? { Environmental impact assessment -Unidirectional frameworks, Fixed scale people cause damage to environment Hazard/risk assessment - Environmental processes cause damage to individuals/communities
  17. 17. ?Three Pillars
  18. 18. What’s missing?Participation (legitimacy)PrecautionEquity (not just efficiency & effectiveness)
  19. 19. Securing our Future - UK SD Strategy 2005
  20. 20. PSR (or DSR or DPSIR) Framework - Many configurations - OECD, EEA, Defra, academic•  Allows for conceptual links in both directions•  Can be applied to multiple scales•  Can deal with processes - not just snapshot But it doesn’t point society along the right or ‘good’ direction - It is a framework for tackling problems
  21. 21. Pressure-State-Response Framework D P S IDriving Forces State Change in Impacts on Pressures in Society Environment Society Agriculture Land and Environmental Industry Physical, Resource Use goods & Energy chemical and services Emissions ecological Transport state Human Technological Services risks Society Households Sector Policy Environmental Statement of Social Policy Objectives Prioritisation Response
  22. 22. Pressure-State-Response FrameworkD P S I Human Environment Society Human Society Environment Response
  23. 23. Impacts are often: Displaced Aggregated Uncertain Inequitable - somebody benefits, andsomebody loses out, but there is often no link between these groups
  24. 24. The projects browse read web present it! discuss
  25. 25. Embedded themes•  Using science •  Communicating science•  Risks and hazards•  Decision-making processes•  Measures and indicators
  26. 26. somedefinitions…
  27. 27. Adaptation - Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to or expected climatic stimuli… whichmoderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Anticipatory Autonomous/spontaneous Planned Private Public Reactive adaptive capacity, adaptability, coping…
  28. 28. Vulnerability - The degree to which a system is susceptible to - or unable to cope with - adverse effects of climate change, including variability and extremes Function of magnitude of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability risk, threat, danger… risk = hazard x outrage
  29. 29. Resilience - The amount of change a system can undergo without changing staterobustness, transformability, stability…
  30. 30. e.g.: The price of fertilizer does not include the cost of waterExternalities - remediationCosts (or benefits) that are external to the market A consequence of the fact that nobody owns the natural environment can be that it is valued at zero… … but environmental costs can (Pearce, Markandya and Barbier) be very significant What might shape the value of environmental ‘resources’? Scarcity, Substitutability …and Society itself
  31. 31. Indicators that may be useful - Palmer Drought Severity Index Crop Moisture Index Climate Vulnerability Index Quality of Life indicators