MIDDLE EAST INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITES FOR PRIVATE EQUITYPresentation Transcript
DISCUSSION PAPER ON MIDDLE EAST OPPORTUNITIES
Global private equity firms have historically ignored the region with the MENA region only accounting for 0.1% of the US$ 2.3 trillion* PE industry PRIVATE EQUITY FUND DISTRIBUTION Americas 72.1% Europe 22.2% Asia 4.3% Oceana 0.7% South Asia 0.3% MENA 0.1% Africa 0.2% *US$ 400 billion of the global PE industry, including leverage represents a US$ 2 trillion in potential buying power Source: Thomson One Banker, Fortune Magazine Regional PE industry as a % of total PE industry of US$ 2.2 trillion
MENA GDP OVERVIEW
With real GDP growth in most countries exceeding 5%, the regional economies are amongst the fastest growing in the world
Real GDP growth is expected to increase at more than twice the rate of population growth leading to an accelerated growth in living standards across the region
Comments Real GDP Growth Average 2007 % Nominal GDP US$ Billion 2007 Qatar Saudi Arabia Egypt Bahrain Oman UAE Kuwait Morocco Jordan Lebanon Population Size
MENA REGION POSITIVE OUTLOOK
Continued development of banking system and creation of an independent monetary policy has sustained the growth on real GDP in Middle East.
The value of oil exports in 2007 reached almost 700 Billion USD.
The non oil GDP also grew by 7.25% contributing to the overall growth.
With the positive outlook on the economies with increase diversification from oil the future forecasts looks strong for the middle east countries.
Direct correlation between infrastructure requirements and population size
Need for additional job creation
Economic growth could be stunted if hard and industrial infrastructure is ignored
MENA region governments are in process of gradually reducing dependence on oil and gas
COMPARATIVE INDUSTRIAL ADVANTAGE
Intrinsic value stemming from low energy and feedstock costs, abundant natural resources and cheap labour
Leading to increasing demand for education and healthcare services
Low starting point
FACTORS DRIVING REQUIREMENT FOR INVESTMENT
THE INVESTMENT DRIVERS OF MIDDLE EAST REGION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS
The Middle East has become the largest project finance market in the world, accounting for US$ 33 billion, or one dollar in every three, that was raised for global infrastructure projects in the first half of 2007.
In Middle East in particular an excess of US$ 630 billion of infrastructure investment required across a broad range of sectors over the next 5-10 years.
There is a paradigm shift in the mindset of regional governments to promote the privatization of state-owned enterprises, with a pipeline across MENA in excess of US$ 1 trillion within the next decade.
The improvement in regulatory infrastructure and the implementation of WTO commitments are likely to fuel the need for more investments.
Gradual liberalization of regulations are conducive to economic growth, yet more efforts are required to create a favorable environment FAVOURABLE REGULATIONS IN MENA REGION FOREIGN OWNERSHIP CUSTOMS CLEARANCE INTELECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS LABOR LAWS DISPUTE SETTLEMENT FDI INFLOW Unfavorable Favorable Gradual liberalization of regulations and the impact on Economy
UAE Oman Qatar Bahrain Saudi Jordan Tunisia Morocco Lebanon Yemen Algeria Egypt Qatar Tunisia UAE Oman Jordan Morocco Bahrain Egypt Algeria Yemen Saudi Lebanon OPENNESS OF CUSTOMS REGIME EFFICIENCY OF LEGAL FRAMEWORKS Qatar Tunisia UAE Oman Jordan Morocco Bahrain Egypt Algeria Yemen Saudi Lebanon ORGANIZED EFFORTS TO IMPROVE COMPETITIVENESS 1= WEAK 7= STRONG MENA REGION –INVESTMENT INDICATORS UAE attracted 58% of all regional FDI projects
There are approximately 60 PE firms in the Middle East today, primarily concentrated in the UAE…
Abu Dhbai Investment Capital
Dubai International Capital
Emirates Investment and Development PSC
East Gate Capital Group
Injazat Tech. Fund
The GCC Energy Fund Managers
The National Investor
HSBC Private Equity
SW Source Capital
Middle East Capital Group
Capital Trust Group
Gulf Arab Investment Co.
The Jordan Fund
Global Investment House
Kuwait Financial Center
Emerging Markets Partnership
Gulf Finance House
Merchant Bridge Group
Venture Capital Bank
Amwal Al Khaleej
Athar Al Majid Hold.
MIDDLE EAST DRIVERS OF THE PRIVATE EQUITY INDUSTRY Macroeconomic Conditions
Stable economic growth and macroeconomic environment
The Region has witnessed impressive growth rates despite unstable political environments in some countries
Improvement in regulatory infrastructure and shift in economic policies caused by privatizations, globalization and efficient deployment of capital
Improving regulatory environment in most countries with competition to attract capital
Economic liberalization under way in a number of countries and family businesses undergoing generational change
Availability of Capital
Financial institutions and pension funds providing capital
Increased appetite of local investors turned to regional investment opportunities
Availability of exit routes either through trade sales or IPOs
Increasing IPO and M&A activity, as well as impressive performance of stock markets
Governments getting into governance and out of management
New exchanges like DIFX launched
MIDDLE EAST PRIVATE EQUITY GROWTH Total Funds Announced, Fund Raising, Investing and Rumored in MENA – 1994 onwards US$ million, 2002 – March 2007
MENA PE FUND GROWTH
60 Private Equity Currently
Accelerating Growth -140% 2007 Vs 63% In 2006
Infrastructure A Key Theme For Which 50% Of Funds Are Raised
Average Fund Size US$ 140 Mn To US$ 440mn
CAGR 49% CAGR 63% CAGR 139%
MIDDLE EAST INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES MENA INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS 630 US$ BILLION
MENA HEALTHCARE SECTOR The sector has grown rapidly over the last decade. It currently accounts for nearly 6 percent of the Dubai non-oil gross domestic product. The sector is predicted to grow by 14% over the coming 5 years.
MENA POWER SECTOR INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS HISTORICAL CAPACITY FORECAST CAPACITY 25% EXCCESS CAPACITY 35% CAPACITY SHORTFALL GCC CAPACITY AND PEAK DEMAND FORECAST (MW) DEMAND
The increasing population in the middle east and the growing infrastructure facilities in middle east has push the demand for power sector.
It is forecasted that by 2010 the there would be a 35% shortfall In the power capacity and power sector provides ample investment opportunities in the region
MIDDLE EAST TRANSPORT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY US$BIL
Expenditure on GCC and middle east has been low in comparison with the global peers.
With an increasing population and rapidly expanding business and tourism Sector the governments are under increasing pressure to provide strong infrastructure in all areas.
UAE and Saudi are in process of setting up a rail networks are increasing the investment opportunities in the rail and road networks through private participation.
MENA PRIVATE EDUCATION SECTOR 1. The Estimated size of MENA market is @ US 114 Billion by 2015. 2. The MENA region is set to achieve a world’s highest higher education admission level. 3. The growth going forward will be witnesses in the private sector growth in the higher education
MIDDLE EAST PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR
The investment in petrochemical market in MENASA is estimated to be US$ 33 billion
The rapid growing Petrochemical sector in the Middle East is due to various Factors including
Competitively priced Feedstock
The largest crude oil 62% and natural Gas 41% reserves in the world.
Strong political support to build a competitive export based industry and
Central geographic location with access to high growth market.
6% 9% 17% The new capacity expected is 33% of global capacity
MIDDLE EAST MINING SECTOR
Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan & United Arab Emirates and Oman have abundant resources.
Middle east is pursuing private investment in the mining sector to reduce the reliance on imports.
It is so far licensed 1,100 mining projects, which have realized revenues of US$3.1 billion to date .
Phosphate reserves identified in Saudi Arabia is estimated to be 3.1 Billion tons making it the worlds largest source of phosphate in the world.
Aluminum is a important metal for the region. GCC producers are gearing up for five fold increase in aluminum production as GCC prepares to lead the global industry into a new era.
BASE AND CAPACITY CREEP NEW PRODUCTION DEMAND GLOBAL ALUMINUM DEMAND SUPPLY OUTLOOK MIL TONS
US$ 325 billion of private investment required over next 5 years Even with large budget surpluses in the GCC for example, there is still a large deficit in required financing. GCC PROJECTS (US$ BILLION) The Saudi Arabian government requires investments of US$ 624 billion over the next 15 years ESTIMATED PUBLIC VS PRIVATE FUNDING IN THE GCC UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Bahrain Total Projects Excess Oil Rev. 272 200 113 32 81 25 723 398 Qatar 272 200 113 32 81 25 723 398
FACTORS DRIVING THE NEED FOR FACTORS FAVOURING PRIVATE INVESTMENT NON PERFORMING LOANS AS % OF TOTAL LOANS LACKING CORPORATE GOVERNANCE LOW LABOR PRODUCTIVITY INEFFICIENT CAPITAL STRUCTURES EAST ASIA E.EUROPE &C.ASIA LATIN AMERICA MENA OECD SOUTH ASIA SUB SAH AFRICA PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY 0.20 0.37 0.77 -0.78 1.89 -0.29 -0.41 INSTITUTIONAL ACCOUNTABILITY -0.11 -0.16 -0.09 -0.32 1.38 -0.41 -0.66
FURTHER PRIVATISATION OPPORTUNITIES SNAP SHOT COUNTRY KEY SELECTED AREAS ANNOUNCED PIPELINE NO. OF TRANSACTIONS UAE POWER WATER OIL AND GAS TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS 28 KUWAIT FINANCIAL SERVICES FOOD AND BEVERAGE LOGISTICS ENGINEERING 23 OMAN FINANCIAL SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATIONS POWER TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS 6 SAUDI ARABIA POWER TELECOMMUNICATION TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS OIL AND GAS 8 JORDAN POWER TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS OIL AND GAS 13 EGYPT FINANCIAL SERVICES TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS OIL AND GAS 92 PAKSITAN FINANCIAL SERVICES TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS FOOD AND BEVERAGE HEALTHCARE 63 INDIA TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS POWER TELECOMMNUNICATIONS NATURAL RESOURCE 13
Thanks and Questions Source of Information 1. Abraaj Capital presentation ; 2. E&Y Global Website 3. Google and Yahoo search sites