Climate change on Agriculture

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Climate change on Agriculture

  1. 1. 0WEL COME
  2. 2. Effect of Climate Change Parameters on Crop Duration and Productivity SANJU, H.R. PALB 1173
  3. 3. o Introduction • Climate change • Parameters of climate change o Climate change parameters on crop duration o Climate change parameters on crop productivity o Conclusion o Future line of work Sequence of presentation
  4. 4. 4 “Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)” “Climate change refers to general shifts in climate, including temperature, precipitation, winds, and other Factors” CLIMATE CHANGE…
  5. 5. Two main causes for climate change Natural Anthropogenic • Natural fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation • Volcanic eruptions • Short term cycles viz. ENSO •Burning of fossil fuel emits CO2 •Methane emission from agriculture, land fills and industry •Nitrous oxide emission from agriculture and industrial sector •Release of CO2 due change in land use and land cover.
  6. 6. Fig 1 : Major contribution of greenhouse gases to climatic change over next 100 years based on 1990 global emission. CO2 CH4 CFC N2O 65% CO217% CH4 12% CFC 8% N2O Aggarwal, et. al., (1993)
  7. 7. 1.High CO2 in the atmosphere 2. Increase in Temperature Maximum and minimum temperature 3.Variation in rainfall pattern No. of rainy days/ shift in season Amount and distribution 4.Solar radiation Day length 5.Drought 6.Floods Major Parameters of Climate change
  8. 8. Fig 2: Estimates of Future Levels of CO2 Year CO2, ppm 2000 369 2010-2015 388-398 2050/2060 463-623 2100 478-1099 IPCC, 2001 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1950 1990 2025 2050 CO2 in ppm
  9. 9. Fig 3: Effect of rise in CO2 on C3 & C4 plants •Photosynthesis increase (60-80%) •Stomatal conductance decreases •Transpiration reduces •WUE increasers (70%)
  10. 10. Crop Leaf photosynthesis Grain yield Stomatal conductance Per cent change Maize 3 4 -34 Rice 36 30 -31 Wheat 35 31 -38 Sorghum 9 0.8 -37 Cotton 33 44 -36 Groundnut 27 30 -28 Soybean 35 34 -40 USDA Hatfield et al.,2011 Table 1: Response of plant physiological variables to doubling of CO2 (660 ppm) concentrations
  11. 11. CO2 concentrati on (ppm) Leaves dry wt (g/plant) No. of seeds Seeds /plant Seed wt (g/plant) 280 3.30 27.7 55.1 9.25 330 5.09 36.3 84.3 14.86 660 5.43 50.2 106.7 17.85 USDA Allen et al., 1991 Table 2: Effect of CO2 levels on soybean growth
  12. 12. Crops Pod/ seed yield (g/plant) % yield increase350 µ mol mol-1 700 µ mol mol-1 Groundnut (C3) 9.06 13.29 46.7 Sorghum (C4) 25.78 27.37 6.2 U.K. Clifford et al., 1993 Table 3: Yield of groundnut and sorghum grown in controlled environment (glass house) at ambient and enriched carbon dioxide levels.
  13. 13. 0 5 10 15 20 25 Photosynthesis(umol/m2 /s) Pusa Basm ati-1 Pusa 677 Pusa Basm ati-1 Pusa 677 Ambient Elevated FACE OTC 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0 4 0 0 4 5 0 Grainyield(g/m 2 ) P u s a Ba s m a t i- 1 P u s a 6 7 7 P u s a Ba s m a t i- 1 P u s a 6 7 7 Amb ie n t E le v ate d Fig.4 :Effect of elevated CO2 on the grain yield and Photosynthesis in rice cultivars under FACE and OTC Aggarwal et al., 2002
  14. 14. RESPONSE OF RICE PLANT TO ELEVATED CO2 Aggarwal, et al., 2002
  15. 15. (IPCC 2007) Fig 5 : changes in temperature, sea level and snow cover due to climate change from 1850-2000
  16. 16. Fig 6: Temperature change from 1990-2100 IPCC., 2012 Increase average global surface temperature 1.8-4.0oC
  17. 17. Table 4: Expected changes in temperature and rainfall in India Year Season Increase in temperature (0C) Change in rainfall (%) Lowest Highest Lowest Highest 2020s Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36 Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10 2050s Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82 Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52 2080s Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50 Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18 Lal et al., 2001
  18. 18. States Temperature (oC) Rainfall MADHYA PRADESH varying trends Declining trend GUJARATH 0.2-0.5 Varying trends CHATTISGARH 1.0 Declining trends MAHARASTHRA 1.0 More rains in May, June and July KARNATAKA 0.5 Shift in peak rainfall month from September to October. Lower rainfall in July & Higher in August. ORISSA 1.0 Frequent and intense cyclones and delayed monsoon ANDHRA PRADESH 1.0 Intense rainfall away from coasts KERALA 0.8 Decline in June-July, marginal increase in August-September TAMIL NADU 1.0-1.5 Declining trend Anon., 2008 Table 5: Temperature and rainfall trends over different states of India
  19. 19. Fig 7 : Rainfall shift in Eastern dry zone of Karnataka Karnataka Rajegowda et al., 2008
  20. 20. AUGUST 27, 2008Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh received 110 mm rain fall in a single day ( average rainfall in entire August is 89 mm) and destroyed entire groundnut. June 28, 2008 Mahasamund district in Chattisgarh, received 183 mm rainfall that day was more than the 150.5 mm rainfall usually received in the month of June and it was followed by 16 days dry spell. July 26, 2005  a record breaking 944 mm rainfall flooded Mumbai and ruined farmers in adjoining Raigarh and Ratnagiri districts. Mumbai usually gets 600 mm rain over June and July. Paddy and Sugarcane on 90 thousand ha were destroyed. September 2, 2006  Barmer district of Rajasthan received 577 mm of rains over 3 days. This was more than twice the average rainfall in a year. Farmers lost crops worth Rs. 1, 300 Crores and 75, 000 farm animals. RAIN SHOCKED INDIAN FARMERS
  21. 21. Crops Minimum (o C) Maximum(o C) Optimum (o C) wheat 3-4.5 30-32 25 Barley 3-4.5 38-40 20 Oat 4-5 30 25 Maize 8-10 40-44 32-35 Sorghum 8-10 40 32-35 Rice 10-12 36-38 30-32 Tobacco 13-14 35 28 Table 6 : Cardinal temperature points for different crops
  22. 22. Effect on climate change on crop duration and productivity
  23. 23. Table 7: Wheat crop response to variations in temperature Temp Change (ºC) Yield and yield attributes Crop duration (Days) Maximum LAI Grains Per ear Grain yield (q/ha) Straw yield (t/ha) +2.0 % D E V I A T I O N -7.7 -23.9 -4.1 -12.2 -21.6 +1.5 -5.6 -17.6 -3.0 -7.2 -17.7 +1.0 -3.5 -12.1 -0.3 -4.9 -11.5 +0.5 -0.7 -6.8 -0.2 -0.2 -6.0 Normal 143 3.8 24.12 50.43 8.83 -0.5 +3.5 +16.6 -1.0 +5.9 +10.9 -1.0 +6.3 +23.4 -1.7 +9.4 +15.2 -1.5 +7.7 +26.3 -0.4 +7.0 +20.5 -2.0 +11.2 +37.8 -1.7 +7.7 +27.1 Punjab Mavi et al. 1993
  24. 24. Table 8 : Change in temperature effect on Growing degree days in wheat Turkey Anon., 2000
  25. 25. Table 9 : Change in maturity date under two climatic change scenarios ( +1ºC and +2ºC) Turkey Anon., 2000
  26. 26. Fig 8 : Date of maturity and the expected wheat yields under two climatic change scenarios ( +1ºC and +2ºC) Turkey Anon., 2000
  27. 27. IARI, New Delhi Sinha and Swaminathan, 1991 Fig.9 : Effect of mean temperature on duration and yield of rice variety IR 36 at different locations
  28. 28. Impact of climate change on maize duration and yield T1 No climate change T2 Uniform increase in maximum temperature alone by 10 C T3 Uniform increase in minimum temperature alone by 10 C T4 Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C T5 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm T6 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C T7 Increase in precipitation by 10% T8 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C + Increase in precipitation by 10% T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran., 2008
  29. 29. Fig 10: Impact of Climate change on duration of Maize T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran.,2008 Good year- 553.2mm Rainfall Bad year - 117.7mm Rainfall Normal year – 352.8 mm rainfall
  30. 30. Table 10 :Effect of climate change on maize yield Climate change scenario GOOD YEAR BAD YEAR NORMAL YEAR Maize yield %deviati on Maize yield %deviati on Maize yield %deviati on T1 2132 0 267 0 601 0 T2 2265 6.2 236 -11.7 581 -3.2 T3 2189 2.7 290 8.6 673 12.1 T4 2192 2.8 254 -5.6 652 8.5 T5 2144 0.6 275 2.9 618 2.9 T6 2215 3.9 268 0.5 671 11.7 T7 2367 11.0 376 40.5 1026 70.8 T8 2528 18.6 359 34.3 1143 90.3 T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran., 2008
  31. 31. LOCATION Year Duration Days to anthesis Economic yield kg/ha COIMBATORE 2000 116 94 4876 2020 113 92 4403 2050 110 90 3652 2080 109 90 3361 MADHURAI 2000 114 92 5117 2020 111 89 4752 2050 107 87 4305 2080 106 86 3386 SALEM 2000 116 93 4592 2020 112 92 3850 2050 111 90 2997 2080 108 88 2764 Table 11: Impact of climate change on duration, days to anthesis and economic yield of Rice in different locations T.N. Srivani, et.al.,2007
  32. 32. Table 12: Rice crop response to variations in temperature Temp Change (ºC) % D E V I A T I O N Yield and yield attributes Crop duration (Days) Maximum LAI Grains Per ear Grain yield (q/ha) Straw yield (t/ha) +2.0 -3.3 -3.9 -12.4 -8.4 -6.4 +1.5 -2.6 -3.9 -8.3 -8.2 -1.7 +1.0 -2.0 -2.4 -6.1 -4.9 -1.2 +0.5 -1.3 -1.1 -2.4 -3.2 -0.7 Normal 153 6.2 494 61.4 4.94 -0.5 0.0 +0.2 +1.4 +3.0 +4.2 -1.0 +1.3 +0.5 +3.4 +2.7 +2.0 -1.5 +2.0 +1.1 +3.9 +4.6 +3.5 -2.0 +13.1 +13.6 +12.6 +21.7 +15.1 Ludiyana Mathauda et al., 2000
  33. 33. Fig. 11: Trends in maximum and minimum temperatures and radiation from 1979 to 2003 Philippines Peng et al ., 2006
  34. 34. Fig.12 : The relationship between rice yield attributed and growing season mean maximum temperature, minimum temperature Philippines Peng et al ., 2006
  35. 35. Location year Grain yield (g/m2) Percentage of ripened grain (%) 1000 grain Dry weight Temperature during GFP ( 0 C) Masture 1999 599.2 77.9 19.1 26.9 MastureH 1999 411.5 55.4 18.5 28.1 Masture 2000 591.2 83.4 20.1 27.8 MastureH 2000 427.6 60.7 19.0 29.3 Akana 1999 668.9 87.5 20.6 23.1 Takatuki 2000 574.3 60.7 20.4 26.6 LSD (0.05) 75.5 14.1 0.9 Table 13: Grain yield, yield components of rice cultivar Koshikari and mean temperature during the grain-filling in different location Japan Kobata and Uemuki, 2004
  36. 36. Crops Temperature rise 1oC 2 oC 3oC per cent reduction in yield Wheat 8.1 18.7 25.7 Rice 5.4 7.4 25.1 Maize 10.4 14.6 21.4 Groundnut 8.7 23.2 36.2 Ludiyana Hundal and Kaur, 1996 Table 14: Effect of increased temperature on productivity of crops in Punjab
  37. 37. Table 15 : Response of simulated grain yield of irrigated wheat to changes in temperature and CO2 in north India. (Aggarwal, et al., 2002).
  38. 38. Fig 13 :Impact of climate change on wheat yield in north India • Grain yields of wheat decrease by 17% with a 2o C increase in temperature. • Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm nullify the effect of 2o C rise in temperature. Aggarwarl, et al., 2002 350 450 550 650 750 0 1 2 3 4 5 Increase in temperature, C CO2,ppm 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2070 2010 Increase in temperature (o C) IncreaseinCO2(ppm)
  39. 39. Parameter Control UV-B at 0.56 Wm-2 Plant height (cm) 71 48 Pod number/plant 120 85 Yield /plant (g) 24 19 Germany Giller, 1991 Table 16: UV- B radiations on soybean plant growth and yield
  40. 40. Table 17: Effect of high temperature on productivity of different crops Wheat yield q/ha Season 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 productivity 17.38 14.02 13.67 20.12 % decrease over 2001-02 - -19.3 -21.3 +10.01 Rapeseed and Mustard yield kg/ha productivity 884 540 360 470 % decrease over 2001-02 - -38.9 -59.3 -8.24 H.P Rajendra prasad and Ranbir Rana ., 2006
  41. 41. Table 18: Temperature during March at Dhaulakuan and Akrot 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 >28 >30 >32 2002 2003 2004 0 10 20 30 40 >28 >30 >32 2002 2003 2004 d a y s Temperature (ºC) Temperature (ºC) H.P Rajendra prasad and Ranbir Rana ., 2006
  42. 42. Solar radiation (MJ m- 2 day-1) Simulated grain yield kg/ha % change from base yield (3837 kg/ha) 3 5387 40 2 5111 33 1 4523 18 -1 3156 -18 -2 2503 -35 -3 1903 -50 Anand, Gujarat Pandey et al., 2007 Table 19 : Simulated wheat yield due to effect of solar radiation
  43. 43. Fig: Cumulative Effect of Temperature and Solar Radiation on Wheat Yield Pakisthan Mukhta and Fayyaz-ul (2011)
  44. 44. Table 20: Effect of temperature during active tillering period on tiller production Planting dates Daily means of temperature (ºC) Daily mean Sunshine hours Tiller production m-2 V1 V2 V3 13-07-1994 27.1 3.7 658 600 578 27-07-1994 25.8 4.3 533 484 480 13-08-1994 25.8 3.6 529 489 484 11-01-1995 24.1 10.4 471 453 489 25-01-1995 26.6 10.8 582 524 507 04-02-1995 27.4 10.4 658 609 573 10-07-1995 26.5 5.0 560 533 556 25-07-1995 27.4 6.0 689 649 550 12-08-1995 26.1 4.0 578 529 529 Hyderabad Lalitha et.al., 1999
  45. 45. Change in CO2 level , temp (ºC) and Solar radiation (MJ m-2 day-1) Simulated grain yield kg/ha % change from base yield (3837 kg/ha) 440 ppm 3 4369 14 2 4699 22 1 4726 23 -1 4550 19 -2 4255 11 -3 3776 -2 660 ppm 3 5781 51 2 6332 65 1 6541 70 -1 6229 62 -2 5950 55 -3 5537 42 Table 21: Simulated wheat yield due interaction effect of temperature, solar radiation and CO2 concentration Anand, Gujarat Pandey et al., 2007
  46. 46. Table 22 : Change in Total Crop Duration due to Rise in Temperature IARI Tripathy, et.al.,2010
  47. 47. Figure .14 : Yield Reduction in Different Cereal Crops with Temperature Rise IARI Tripathy, et.al.,2010
  48. 48. IARI Tripathy et al.,2010 Fig. 15 . Changes in Grain Yield of Different Cereal Crops to Temperature Changes and Doubled Atmospheric CO2Conditions
  49. 49. Table 23: Interactive effects of CO2 and temperature on yield of maize and wheat crop CO 2 ppm Yield kg/ha Existing Existing +3 ºC % Deviation (+3 ºC) Maize 350 3700 2337 -36.8 700 4314 3713 -13.8 wheat 350 3916 3339 -14.7 700 6131 5206 -15.08 Punjab kaur et al., 2012
  50. 50. Fig 16: Annual rainfall of Karnataka state and Tumkur district. Panduranga et al., 2006Bangalore
  51. 51. Fig 17 : Productivity of various crops during the period 1955 to 2000 Panduranga et al., 2006Bangalore
  52. 52. Table 24 : Impact of drought on productivity of pearl millet Station Pearl millet yield in kg ha-1 % Decrease in yield Good monsoon year (1983) Mean of 3 drought years 1984-1987 Barmer 285 65 77 Jalore 468 105 77 Jodhpur 337 79 77 Nagpur 721 265 63 Pali 553 248 55 Jodhpur Singh et al., 1999
  53. 53. • Rise in CO2 level from 280-660 ppm has increased the grain yield (50-70 g m- 2) of rice and seed weight (17.85 g plant-1) of soybean and about 46.7 per cent pod yield of groundnut. • Increase in temperature 2.0 0C over normal decreases the Crop duration (3 & 7.7days), Grain yield (8.5& 12.2 q ha-1) in case of rice and wheat, respectively and also increase in solar radiation from 1-3 MJ m-2 day-1 resulted in increased yield of wheat from 18-40 %. • Both maximum and minimum temperature has negative impact on yield , Grain yield of rice declined by 10% for every 1ºC increase in minimum temperature and decrease in wheat grain yield (21.3%), rapeseed pod yield (59.3%) at maximum temperature in march. • Increase in the yield of maize and wheat due to interaction effect of temperature & CO2 was observed, but beneficial only at one unit increase in temperature and radiation at all levels of CO2. Conclusions
  54. 54. • Research needs to find out appropriate management practices to sustain the present level yield in changed climate conditions. • Evolving efficient and soil management practices in addition to identification or breeding of crops and varieties with higher water use efficiency, dry matter conversion ratio, positive response to temperature extremes and elevated CO2 . Future line of work
  55. 55. Thank you

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