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THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

         JAMES TREFIL
  Clarence J Robinson Professor of
              Physics
      George Mason U...
BUT

WHAT IF WE FIND 11?

                14?

                25?
HYPOTHETICAL APPROACH
WHAT IF WE TOOK 100 GROUPS OF A
MILLION PEOPLE EACH, NONE OF
WHOM HAVE BEEN EXPOSED TO
SUBSTANCE X?
...
IN THE HYPOTHETICAL EXPERIMENT, MAKE
A PLOT AS FOLLOWS:

HORIZONTAL AXIS: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN
EACH GROUP WHO GET THE DISEA...
RIGHT NOW, FEDERAL STANDARD
SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING TOWARD
FINDING SIGNIFICANCE WHEN
EFFECT IS TWICE THAT OF CHANCE
SEVEN WARNING SIGNS OF
         BOGUS SCIENCE
1.   DISCOVERY PITCHED TO MEDIA
2.   CLAIM THAT THE ESTABLISHMENT IS
     SU...
DAUBERT CRITERIA
TESTABILITY (LIKE FALSIFIABILITY)
PEER REVIEW
ERROR RATE
STANDARDIZATION
GENERAL ACCEPTANCE

         NON...
SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY
  ON SELECTED CASES
           JAMES TREFIL
   Clarence J Robinson Professor of
               Physi...
CHADD v. FOLKES

                1782

Foundational case for expert witnesses
TIMELINE
1780 – Grand jury in Norfolk finds 1758
    embankment a public nuisance.
    Commissioners hire men to remove it...
THE SEA IS EMBANKING, OF
ITSELF, THE WHOLE COAST, AND
THE TIME WILL PROBABLY COME
WHEN THIS HARBOR WILL
DIMINISH…..TO DRY ...
IN MATTERS OF SCIENCE, THE
REASONING OF MEN OF SCIENCE
CAN ONLY BE ANSWERED BY
MEN OF SCIENCE



       CHIEF JUSTICE MANS...
I FIND MYSELF FORCED BY FAIR
INDUCTION TO INFER THAT THE
EMBANKMENT…IN 1758 COULD NOT
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE LANDING
UP (...
TIMELINE (CONT.)

1782– NEW TRIAL WITH EXPERTS ON
  BOTH SIDES. TRIAL JUDGE REFUSES
  TO ADMIT TESTIMONY OF JOHN
  SMEATON...
I CANNOT BELIEVE THAT WHEN THE
QUESTION IS, WHETHER A DEFECT
ARISES FROM A NATURAL OR
ARTIFICIAL CAUSE, THE OPINIONS OF
ME...
OUTCOMES OF THIRD TRIAL
        (1783)
THE JURY IGNORED ALL EXPERTS
AND FOUND FOR THE
COMMISSIONERS
THE EMBANKMENT WAS REM...
SEVERN, KING, AND COMPANY
     v. IMPERIAL INSURANCE

                   1820

First example of dueling experts
BACKGROUND FACTS
IN 1816-1819, HENRY WILSON
PATENTS NEW SYSTEM USING
HEATED WHALE OIL
IN 1819, SEVERN, KING INSTALL THE
SY...
SCIENTIFIC ISSUE
THEY KNEW THAT

 NEW WHALE OIL PRODUCES
 FLAMMABLE GASSES AT 600F

 SUGAR PRODUCES FLAMMABLE
 GASSES AT 3...
BUT

IN WILSON’S APPARATUS, THE WHALE
OIL WAS ONLY HEATED TO 350F

COULD REPEATED HEATING AND
COOLING CHANGE ITS PROPERTIES?
PLAINTIFF’S EXPERT ROSTER
         FIRST TRIAL
WILLIAM ALLEN, FRS, Chemistry, Guys
 Hospital
CHARLES SYLVESTOR, wrote chem...
DEFENDANT EXPERT ROSTER
       FIRST TRIAL
ARTHUR AIKEN, Author, Dictionary of
 Chemistry
RICHARD PHILLIPS, Chemistry Prof...
IT MUST BE A MATTER OF GENERAL
REGRET TO FIND THE RESPECTABLE
WITNESSES…DRAWN UP, NOT ON
ONE SIDE, AND FOR THE
MAINTENANCE...
SECOND ROUND DRAFT PICKS
                  PLAINTIFFS
THOMAS THOMSON, Professor of Chemistry,
  Glasgow, author System of ...
FINAL WORD
THEY LEFT THE COURT IN A STATE OF
UTTER UNCERTAINTY, AND THE TWO
DAYS (OF TESTIMONY) WERE DAYS,
NOT OF TRIUMPH,...
SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE AT
          THE TIME

1808 JOHN DALTON PUBLISHES A NEW
   SYSTEM OF CHEMICAL PHILOSOPHY,
   INTRODUC...
EXAMPLES OF THINGS THAT
COULD HAVE GONE WRONG

OIL COULD HAVE HAD DIFFERENT
TEMPERATURES IN DIFFERENT PARTS
OF THE VAT

TH...
PEOPLE v. FRYE
                 1923

Established traditional standards of
 admissibility
BACKGROUND
In 1921, James Frye was arrested on
robbery charges
While in custody he confessed to the
murder of a prominent ...
(DECEPTION TESTS) ARE
INADMISSIBLE UNTIL THERE IS AN
INFALLIBLE INSTRUMENT FOR
ASCERTAINING WHETHER A
PERSON IS SPEAKING T...
….I SHALL BE DEAD BY THAT
TIME, PROBABLY, AND IT WILL
BOTHER SOME OTHER JUDGE,
NOT ME

             JUDGE WALTER McCOY
   ...
THE THING FROM WHICH THE
DEDUCTION IS MADE MUST BE
SUFFICIENTLY ESTABLISHED TO
HAVE GAINED GENERAL
ACCEPTANCE IN THE
PARTI...
SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE AT
          THE TIME
1897– FIRST PSYCHOLOGY DEPARTMENT
  ANYWHERE (LEIPZIG)

1907- FIRST ATTEMPT TO ...
DAUBERT v. MERRILL DOW
    PHARMACEUTICALS

                 1993

Established judge as ‘gatekeeper’ of
 scientific testimony
HOW IS IT PRONOUNCED?
IS IT

        Dough- BEAR?

        DAW- bert?

        DOW- bert?
BACKGROUND
Jason Daubert and Eric Schiller, minors,
were born with serious birth defects after
their mother took Bendectin...
RULE 702
IF SCIENTIFIC, TECHNICAL, OR OTHER
SPECIALIZED KNOWLEDGE WILL
ASSIST THE TRIER OF FACT TO
UNDERSTAND THE EVIDENCE...
GATEKEEPER
THE TRIAL JUDGE MUST ENSURE
THAT ANY AND ALL SCIENTIFIC
TESTIMONY OR EVIDENCE
ADMITTED IS NOT ONLY
RELEVANT, BU...
DAUBERT CRITERIA
TESTABILITY (LIKE FALSIFIABILITY)
PEER REVIEW
ERROR RATE
STANDARDIZATION
GENERAL ACCEPTANCE

         NON...
THE PART NOBODY TALKS
         ABOUT
IF ‘ANYTHING GOES’, WILL GULLIBLE
JURIES BE HOODWINKED BY
CHARLATANS?
IF THE PROCESS ...
COMPLAINT (MAINLY FROM
    PLAINTIFF’S BAR)

THIS ALLOWS DEFENDANT TO
‘CHERRY PICK’ EVIDENCE– THE SUM
TOTAL OF THE EVIDENC...
THE PLURAL OF ANECDOTE IS
      NOT EVIDENCE

              ANONYMOUS
TREFIL’S LAW
IF YOU PUT A LOT OF GARBAGE
  IN A PILE, WHAT YOU HAVE AT
          THE END IS…….

     A PILE OF GARBAGE
GENERAL ELECTRIC
        v. JOINER
                1997

The standard for trial judges is
“Abuse of Discretion”
BACKGROUND
Robert Joiner worked for utility company in
Georgia, was exposed to PCBs in transformers
A lifelong smoker with...
TESTIMONY OFFERED

• ANIMAL STUDIES


• DOSE CALCULATIONS


• RE-EVALUATION OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL
 STUDIES
ANIMAL STUDIES
SPECIES DON’T ALWAYS REACT THE SAME
WAY
FOUND PCB CAUSED CANCER (BUT NOT
LUNG CANCER) IN YOUNG MICE, BUT NO...
BUT


WE REALLY NEED ANIMAL STUDIES

EXAMPLE: MULTIDOSE CHEMOTHERAPY
KUMHO TIRE v. CARMICHAEL

                1999

 Daubert criteria apply to technology
 as well as science
BACKGROUND FACTS
IN JULY, 1993, PATRICK CARMICHAEL
BUYS USED MINIVAN
DRIVES 7000 MILES UNTIL TIRE HAS
BALD PATCHES AND 3/3...
BACKGROUND (CONT.)

CARMICHAEL’S EXPERT, DENNIS
CARLSON, WORKED AT MICHELIN FOR
10 YEARS
TRIAL JUDGE EXCLUDED TESTIMONY
BE...
SCIENTIFIC ISSUE
WAS IT ‘OVERDEFLECTION’
(UNDERINFLATION) OR DEFECT?

PLAINTIFF’S EXPERT STATED FOUR
CRITERIA FOR OVERDEFL...
(THE COURT) FOUND THAT NONE OF
THE DAUBERT FACTORS, INCLUDING
THAT OF “GENERAL ACCEPTANCE”
….INDICATED THAT CARLSON’S
TEST...
IN SUM, RULE 702 GRANTS THE
DISTRICT JUDGE THE
DISCRETIONARY AUTHORITY… TO
DETERMINE RELIABILITY IN LIGHT OF
THE PARTICULA...
SIDE ISSUES
CARLSON ACTUALLY FOUND ALL
FOUR CRITERIA ‘TO A LIMITED
DEGREE’
HE DIDN’T ACTUALLY SEE THE TIRE
UNTIL THE DAY O...
EVALUATION


FROM A SCIENTIFIC POINT OF VIEW,
THIS SET OF RULUNGS SEEMS
PRETTY REASONABLE
What Killed the Dinosaurs?




     A Scientific Detective Story
            James Trefil
   Clarence Robinson Professor o...
INTERESTING FACTS
ONLY ABOUT 1 SPECIES IN A
THOUSAND APPEARS IN THE FOSSIL
RECORD

THE AVERAGE LIFETIME OF SPECIES
IS ABOU...
ALVAREZ HYPOTHESIS

THE EXTINCTION WAS CAUSED BY A
DUST CLOUD RAISED BY THE IMPACT
OF A METEORITE ABOUT 8 MILES
ACROSS
OBJECTION

COULDN’T IT JUST BE THAT FOR
SOME REASON THERE WAS A
SPECIES OF PLANKTON THAT
METABOLIZED IRIDIUM?
Judgement The Scientific Method
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Transcript of "Judgement The Scientific Method"

  1. 1. THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD JAMES TREFIL Clarence J Robinson Professor of Physics George Mason University
  2. 2. BUT WHAT IF WE FIND 11? 14? 25?
  3. 3. HYPOTHETICAL APPROACH WHAT IF WE TOOK 100 GROUPS OF A MILLION PEOPLE EACH, NONE OF WHOM HAVE BEEN EXPOSED TO SUBSTANCE X? IN EACH GROUP, SOME PEOPLE WOULD HAVE THE DISEASE.
  4. 4. IN THE HYPOTHETICAL EXPERIMENT, MAKE A PLOT AS FOLLOWS: HORIZONTAL AXIS: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN EACH GROUP WHO GET THE DISEASE VERTICAL AXIS: NUMBER OF GROUPS IN WHICH A SPECIFIC NUMBER OF CASES APPEAR
  5. 5. RIGHT NOW, FEDERAL STANDARD SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING TOWARD FINDING SIGNIFICANCE WHEN EFFECT IS TWICE THAT OF CHANCE
  6. 6. SEVEN WARNING SIGNS OF BOGUS SCIENCE 1. DISCOVERY PITCHED TO MEDIA 2. CLAIM THAT THE ESTABLISHMENT IS SUPPRESSING WORK 3. EFFECT AT LIMIT OF DETECTION 4. ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE 5. CLAIM THAT BELIEF IS VERY OLD 6. DISCOVERER ISOLATED 7. NEW LAWS OF NATURE PROPOSED ROBERT PARKS
  7. 7. DAUBERT CRITERIA TESTABILITY (LIKE FALSIFIABILITY) PEER REVIEW ERROR RATE STANDARDIZATION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE NON-EXCLUSIVE
  8. 8. SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY ON SELECTED CASES JAMES TREFIL Clarence J Robinson Professor of Physics George Mason University
  9. 9. CHADD v. FOLKES 1782 Foundational case for expert witnesses
  10. 10. TIMELINE 1780 – Grand jury in Norfolk finds 1758 embankment a public nuisance. Commissioners hire men to remove it 1781 – Martin Folkes, landowner, gets injunction in Chancery Court, sues Chadd (Commissioner) in Norfolk Assizes to prevent removal
  11. 11. THE SEA IS EMBANKING, OF ITSELF, THE WHOLE COAST, AND THE TIME WILL PROBABLY COME WHEN THIS HARBOR WILL DIMINISH…..TO DRY LAND ROBERT MYLNE, FRS
  12. 12. IN MATTERS OF SCIENCE, THE REASONING OF MEN OF SCIENCE CAN ONLY BE ANSWERED BY MEN OF SCIENCE CHIEF JUSTICE MANSFIELD
  13. 13. I FIND MYSELF FORCED BY FAIR INDUCTION TO INFER THAT THE EMBANKMENT…IN 1758 COULD NOT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE LANDING UP (OF THE HARBOR) JOHN SMEATON, FRS
  14. 14. TIMELINE (CONT.) 1782– NEW TRIAL WITH EXPERTS ON BOTH SIDES. TRIAL JUDGE REFUSES TO ADMIT TESTIMONY OF JOHN SMEATON, FRS, ON GROUNDS THAT IT IS HEARSAY
  15. 15. I CANNOT BELIEVE THAT WHEN THE QUESTION IS, WHETHER A DEFECT ARISES FROM A NATURAL OR ARTIFICIAL CAUSE, THE OPINIONS OF MEN OF SCIENCE ARE NOT TO BE RECEIVED CHIEF JUSTICE MANSFIELD
  16. 16. OUTCOMES OF THIRD TRIAL (1783) THE JURY IGNORED ALL EXPERTS AND FOUND FOR THE COMMISSIONERS THE EMBANKMENT WAS REMOVED THE HARBOR SILTED UP THE TOWN IS NOW CALLED “WELLS- NEXT-THE-SEA”
  17. 17. SEVERN, KING, AND COMPANY v. IMPERIAL INSURANCE 1820 First example of dueling experts
  18. 18. BACKGROUND FACTS IN 1816-1819, HENRY WILSON PATENTS NEW SYSTEM USING HEATED WHALE OIL IN 1819, SEVERN, KING INSTALL THE SYSTEM IN APRIL, 1820, THE FACTORY BURNS DOWN. IMPERIAL INSURANCE REFUSES TO PAY
  19. 19. SCIENTIFIC ISSUE THEY KNEW THAT NEW WHALE OIL PRODUCES FLAMMABLE GASSES AT 600F SUGAR PRODUCES FLAMMABLE GASSES AT 350 F
  20. 20. BUT IN WILSON’S APPARATUS, THE WHALE OIL WAS ONLY HEATED TO 350F COULD REPEATED HEATING AND COOLING CHANGE ITS PROPERTIES?
  21. 21. PLAINTIFF’S EXPERT ROSTER FIRST TRIAL WILLIAM ALLEN, FRS, Chemistry, Guys Hospital CHARLES SYLVESTOR, wrote chemistry section of Rees’ Cyclopedia THOMAS BERRY, Industrial Chemist FREIDRICH ACCUM, Chief Engineer, Chartered Gas and Coal Co. SAMUEL PARKS, author, Chemical Catechism
  22. 22. DEFENDANT EXPERT ROSTER FIRST TRIAL ARTHUR AIKEN, Author, Dictionary of Chemistry RICHARD PHILLIPS, Chemistry Professor, Royal Military Academy MICHAEL FARADAY, Royal Institute JOHN BOSTOK, FRS, Chemist, Guys Hospital JOHN TAYLOR, JOHN MARTINEAU, Engineers, owners of refinery
  23. 23. IT MUST BE A MATTER OF GENERAL REGRET TO FIND THE RESPECTABLE WITNESSES…DRAWN UP, NOT ON ONE SIDE, AND FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF THE SAME TRUTHS, BUT…IN MARTIAL AND HOSTILE ARRAY CHIEF JUSTICE LORD DALLAS
  24. 24. SECOND ROUND DRAFT PICKS PLAINTIFFS THOMAS THOMSON, Professor of Chemistry, Glasgow, author System of Chemistry JOHN DAVY, FRS, Chemist JOHN DALTON, President, Manchester Philosophical Society DEFENDANTS ALEXANDER TILLICH, Editor, Philosophical Magazine
  25. 25. FINAL WORD THEY LEFT THE COURT IN A STATE OF UTTER UNCERTAINTY, AND THE TWO DAYS (OF TESTIMONY) WERE DAYS, NOT OF TRIUMPH, BUT OF HUMILIATION FOR SCIENCE CHIEF JUSTICE LORD DALLAS
  26. 26. SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE AT THE TIME 1808 JOHN DALTON PUBLISHES A NEW SYSTEM OF CHEMICAL PHILOSOPHY, INTRODUCES MODERN ATOM 1828 FRIEDRICH WOHLER MAKES UREA IN LABORATORY (FIRST ORGANIC SYNTHESIS)
  27. 27. EXAMPLES OF THINGS THAT COULD HAVE GONE WRONG OIL COULD HAVE HAD DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE VAT THERMOMETER COULD AFFECT OIL TEMPERATURE IN SMALL EXPERIMENTS BUT NOT IN FACTORY
  28. 28. PEOPLE v. FRYE 1923 Established traditional standards of admissibility
  29. 29. BACKGROUND In 1921, James Frye was arrested on robbery charges While in custody he confessed to the murder of a prominent physician He later withdrew the confession, claiming that the detective had offered him half of the reward money His attorney tried to get evidence from a ‘deception machine’ admitted
  30. 30. (DECEPTION TESTS) ARE INADMISSIBLE UNTIL THERE IS AN INFALLIBLE INSTRUMENT FOR ASCERTAINING WHETHER A PERSON IS SPEAKING THE TRUTH OR NOT………
  31. 31. ….I SHALL BE DEAD BY THAT TIME, PROBABLY, AND IT WILL BOTHER SOME OTHER JUDGE, NOT ME JUDGE WALTER McCOY FRYE
  32. 32. THE THING FROM WHICH THE DEDUCTION IS MADE MUST BE SUFFICIENTLY ESTABLISHED TO HAVE GAINED GENERAL ACCEPTANCE IN THE PARTICULAR FIELD IN WHICH IT BELONGS FRYE (1923)
  33. 33. SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE AT THE TIME 1897– FIRST PSYCHOLOGY DEPARTMENT ANYWHERE (LEIPZIG) 1907- FIRST ATTEMPT TO USE ‘LIE DETECTOR’ IN A POLICE INVESTIGATION 1918 – ARMY TRIES (UNSUCCESSFULLY) TO DEVELOP LIE DETECTOR
  34. 34. DAUBERT v. MERRILL DOW PHARMACEUTICALS 1993 Established judge as ‘gatekeeper’ of scientific testimony
  35. 35. HOW IS IT PRONOUNCED? IS IT Dough- BEAR? DAW- bert? DOW- bert?
  36. 36. BACKGROUND Jason Daubert and Eric Schiller, minors, were born with serious birth defects after their mother took Bendectin There were 30 published studies (130,000 patients) with no evidence for harm Daubert wanted to introduce unpublished work. Trail court ruled the evidence didn’t meet Frye, appelate court affirmed
  37. 37. RULE 702 IF SCIENTIFIC, TECHNICAL, OR OTHER SPECIALIZED KNOWLEDGE WILL ASSIST THE TRIER OF FACT TO UNDERSTAND THE EVIDENCE…. A WITNESS QUALIFIED AS AN EXPERT BY KNOWLEDGE, SKILL, EXPERIENCE, TRAINING, OR EDUCATION MAY TESTIFY….
  38. 38. GATEKEEPER THE TRIAL JUDGE MUST ENSURE THAT ANY AND ALL SCIENTIFIC TESTIMONY OR EVIDENCE ADMITTED IS NOT ONLY RELEVANT, BUT RELIABLE JUSTICE BLACKMUN
  39. 39. DAUBERT CRITERIA TESTABILITY (LIKE FALSIFIABILITY) PEER REVIEW ERROR RATE STANDARDIZATION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE NON-EXCLUSIVE
  40. 40. THE PART NOBODY TALKS ABOUT IF ‘ANYTHING GOES’, WILL GULLIBLE JURIES BE HOODWINKED BY CHARLATANS? IF THE PROCESS IS DOMINATED BY ORTHODOXY, WILL IT BE TOO RESTRICTIVE? I COME DOWN ON THE ‘GULLIBLE’ SIDE
  41. 41. COMPLAINT (MAINLY FROM PLAINTIFF’S BAR) THIS ALLOWS DEFENDANT TO ‘CHERRY PICK’ EVIDENCE– THE SUM TOTAL OF THE EVIDENCE MAY HAVE WEIGHT, EVEN THOUGH EACH PIECE CAN BE CRITICIZED
  42. 42. THE PLURAL OF ANECDOTE IS NOT EVIDENCE ANONYMOUS
  43. 43. TREFIL’S LAW IF YOU PUT A LOT OF GARBAGE IN A PILE, WHAT YOU HAVE AT THE END IS……. A PILE OF GARBAGE
  44. 44. GENERAL ELECTRIC v. JOINER 1997 The standard for trial judges is “Abuse of Discretion”
  45. 45. BACKGROUND Robert Joiner worked for utility company in Georgia, was exposed to PCBs in transformers A lifelong smoker with a family history of lung cancer, he contracted small cell lung cancer Joiner claimed the PCBs had ‘promoted’ his disease Trial judge excluded evidence, applelate court reversed
  46. 46. TESTIMONY OFFERED • ANIMAL STUDIES • DOSE CALCULATIONS • RE-EVALUATION OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES
  47. 47. ANIMAL STUDIES SPECIES DON’T ALWAYS REACT THE SAME WAY FOUND PCB CAUSED CANCER (BUT NOT LUNG CANCER) IN YOUNG MICE, BUT NOT IN ADULT MICE OR IN OTHER SPECIES TESTS HAVE TO BE MADE AT HIGH DOSE TO GET A MEASURABLE RESULT
  48. 48. BUT WE REALLY NEED ANIMAL STUDIES EXAMPLE: MULTIDOSE CHEMOTHERAPY
  49. 49. KUMHO TIRE v. CARMICHAEL 1999 Daubert criteria apply to technology as well as science
  50. 50. BACKGROUND FACTS IN JULY, 1993, PATRICK CARMICHAEL BUYS USED MINIVAN DRIVES 7000 MILES UNTIL TIRE HAS BALD PATCHES AND 3/32” OF TREAD TIRE BLOWS OUT AND HE SUES KUMHO TIRES FOR MANUFACTURING DEFECT
  51. 51. BACKGROUND (CONT.) CARMICHAEL’S EXPERT, DENNIS CARLSON, WORKED AT MICHELIN FOR 10 YEARS TRIAL JUDGE EXCLUDED TESTIMONY BECAUSE IT FAILED DAUBERT. APPELATE COURT REVERSED
  52. 52. SCIENTIFIC ISSUE WAS IT ‘OVERDEFLECTION’ (UNDERINFLATION) OR DEFECT? PLAINTIFF’S EXPERT STATED FOUR CRITERIA FOR OVERDEFLECTION, FOUND TWO, AND CONCLUDED THE CAUSE HAD TO BE A MANUFACTURING DEFECT
  53. 53. (THE COURT) FOUND THAT NONE OF THE DAUBERT FACTORS, INCLUDING THAT OF “GENERAL ACCEPTANCE” ….INDICATED THAT CARLSON’S TESTIMONY WAS RELIABLE JUSTICE BREYER IN KUMHO
  54. 54. IN SUM, RULE 702 GRANTS THE DISTRICT JUDGE THE DISCRETIONARY AUTHORITY… TO DETERMINE RELIABILITY IN LIGHT OF THE PARTICULAR FACTS AND CICUMSTANCES OF THE PARTICULAR CASE JUSTIC BREYER, IN KUMHO
  55. 55. SIDE ISSUES CARLSON ACTUALLY FOUND ALL FOUR CRITERIA ‘TO A LIMITED DEGREE’ HE DIDN’T ACTUALLY SEE THE TIRE UNTIL THE DAY OF HIS DEPOSITION
  56. 56. EVALUATION FROM A SCIENTIFIC POINT OF VIEW, THIS SET OF RULUNGS SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE
  57. 57. What Killed the Dinosaurs? A Scientific Detective Story James Trefil Clarence Robinson Professor of Physics
  58. 58. INTERESTING FACTS ONLY ABOUT 1 SPECIES IN A THOUSAND APPEARS IN THE FOSSIL RECORD THE AVERAGE LIFETIME OF SPECIES IS ABOUT 3 MILLION YEARS 99% OF ALL SPECIES THAT EVER EXISTED ARE EXTINCT
  59. 59. ALVAREZ HYPOTHESIS THE EXTINCTION WAS CAUSED BY A DUST CLOUD RAISED BY THE IMPACT OF A METEORITE ABOUT 8 MILES ACROSS
  60. 60. OBJECTION COULDN’T IT JUST BE THAT FOR SOME REASON THERE WAS A SPECIES OF PLANKTON THAT METABOLIZED IRIDIUM?
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