Achievement of undp <br />millennium development goals<br />by 2020<br />Scenario Planning <br />
By Haggis Pakodas – Group 8<br />Sanil<br />NV<br />Jim<br />Vaibhav<br />Shashwat<br />Chandra<br />
Honduras<br />
BRIEF INTRODUCTION<br />Prof. Humphries has been conducting research with the NGO, called Fundaciónpara la InvestigaciónPa...
Impact – Predictability Matrix<br />High Predictability<br />High Predictability<br />Impact of policies of the government...
Scenario Matrix<br /><ul><li>Recruiting & re-arming the police force
Further over-crowding in prisons due to increase in number of arrests
Youth oppressed by judiciary take to crime
More funds available to government as they are  not siphoned  by corruption
Enforcement of stringent laws by anti-corruption bureau
Separation of executive body from judiciary
Misuse of legal system by the law enforcement agencies resulting in human rights violation
Government establishing intra-departmental anti-corruption units </li></ul>Role of the judiciary in dealing with corruptio...
Entrepreneurship is given a boost due to decline in Maquila’s
Manpower moves from Maquila to agriculture and mining
Relationship strengthens with Venezuela
Increased unemployment among women due to decline of Maquila
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Scenario Planning to Achieve UNDP's MDG for the country Honduras

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  • Scenario Planning to Achieve UNDP's MDG for the country Honduras

    1. 1. Achievement of undp <br />millennium development goals<br />by 2020<br />Scenario Planning <br />
    2. 2. By Haggis Pakodas – Group 8<br />Sanil<br />NV<br />Jim<br />Vaibhav<br />Shashwat<br />Chandra<br />
    3. 3. Honduras<br />
    4. 4. BRIEF INTRODUCTION<br />Prof. Humphries has been conducting research with the NGO, called Fundaciónpara la InvestigaciónParticipativa con Agricultores de Honduras (FIPAH), which is dedicated to supporting participatory agricultural research with Honduran hillside farmers for the past 15 years. Research themes have included gender and agriculture, participatory plant breeding, an impact assessment of participatory research on farmers&apos; wellbeing, organic agriculture, migration, youth.  Prof. Sally is currently working with IDRC and her Honduran partners on access and benefit sharing in plant genetic resources. <br />Prof. Sally Humphries<br />Associate Professor Dept of Sociology and Anthropology - <br />University of Guelph, Canada <br />Remarkable Person: Introduction<br />
    5. 5. Impact – Predictability Matrix<br />High Predictability<br />High Predictability<br />Impact of policies of the government on environmental management<br />Poverty level impacting the effectiveness of free education system<br />Impact of tourism on rural socio-economic conditions<br />Future of HIV infection rates in the Honduran Society<br />Level of investment in large infrastructural projects in Honduras<br />Ability of Honduras to carry through industrial and agricultural diversification<br />Government Agricultural Policies and their effect on child nutrition<br />High<br />Impact<br />Low<br />Impact<br />Future prospects of primary maternal health-care<br />Influence of US policy on international trade of Honduras<br />Immediate political repercussions and consequences of the Coup<br />Role of the judiciary in dealing with corruption and gang culture<br />Low Predictability<br />Low Predictability<br />
    6. 6. Scenario Matrix<br /><ul><li>Recruiting & re-arming the police force
    7. 7. Further over-crowding in prisons due to increase in number of arrests
    8. 8. Youth oppressed by judiciary take to crime
    9. 9. More funds available to government as they are not siphoned by corruption
    10. 10. Enforcement of stringent laws by anti-corruption bureau
    11. 11. Separation of executive body from judiciary
    12. 12. Misuse of legal system by the law enforcement agencies resulting in human rights violation
    13. 13. Government establishing intra-departmental anti-corruption units </li></ul>Role of the judiciary in dealing with corruption and Gang culture<br />Influence of US policy on international trade of Honduras <br />Influence of US policy on international trade of Honduras<br />Brown<br /> Field Development<br />Level Playing Field<br /><ul><li>Honduran industries forced to look at other export markets for their products & services
    14. 14. Entrepreneurship is given a boost due to decline in Maquila’s
    15. 15. Manpower moves from Maquila to agriculture and mining
    16. 16. Relationship strengthens with Venezuela
    17. 17. Increased unemployment among women due to decline of Maquila
    18. 18. Reintroduction of Coffee Cartel
    19. 19. USA Aid stops
    20. 20. Increase in illegal immigration to US
    21. 21. Continued dependency on USA trade
    22. 22. Oil deal with Venezuela in jeopardy
    23. 23. USA more lenient on policy regarding illegal immigrants from Honduras
    24. 24. Transfer of technology from US
    25. 25. Sustained Financial Aid from USA and it’s allied countries for development </li></ul>Recipe<br />for Revolution<br />Green shoots in Shade<br />Role of the judiciary in dealing with corruption and Gang culture<br /><ul><li>Increased incidences of crime due to gang crimes
    26. 26. Cultural rejection of Maras reducing the support they receive from the community
    27. 27. Rise of a “free” press
    28. 28. Power of Political elite diminish as people become more unhappy
    29. 29. Unity among communities to fight gang-crime
    30. 30. Systemic corruption across all the levels</li></li></ul><li>Early Warning Indicators<br />Brown<br /> Field Development<br />Level Playing Field<br />Recipe<br />for Revolution<br />Green shoots in Shade<br />
    31. 31. Strategic options<br />Brown<br /> Field Development<br />Level Playing Field<br />Recipe<br />for Revolution<br />Green shoots in Shade<br />
    32. 32. Achievement of UNDP goals<br />
    33. 33. Scenario: Brown field Development <br />Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger<br />Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education<br />Goal 3: Promote gender equality & empower women<br />Goal 4: Reduce child mortality<br />Goal 5: Improve maternal health<br />Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria & other diseases<br />Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability<br />Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development<br />
    34. 34. Stakeholder Analysis<br /><ul><li>European Market
    35. 35. ALBA
    36. 36. USA Government
    37. 37. Partido Liberal de Honduras
    38. 38. PartidoNacional de Honduras
    39. 39. Venezuelian Government
    40. 40. Judiciary of Honduras
    41. 41. Gangs & its members
    42. 42. Business owners and lobbies in Honduras
    43. 43. Coffee and Banana Producers</li></ul>High Power<br /><ul><li>Police and Army
    44. 44. Tourists
    45. 45. US & Mexico gangs
    46. 46. Three other political parties in Honduras
    47. 47. Maquila Owners
    48. 48. El Salvador - Nicaragua & Mexico
    49. 49. Citizens of Honduras
    50. 50. NGO working in Honduras
    51. 51. Catholic Church
    52. 52. International mining companies
    53. 53. International Oil exploration companies</li></ul>Low Power<br />High Interest<br />Low Interest<br />
    54. 54. Questions<br />Thank You<br />
    55. 55. Vicious & Virtuous Circles<br />Poor Infrastructure<br />Embracing Technology<br /><ul><li>Poor Infrastructure
    56. 56. 22% of the power wasted during transmission
    57. 57. Shortage of power
    58. 58. Impact on industries: Higher direct cost
    59. 59. Impact on industries: Poor industrial productivity
    60. 60. Low Economic Development
    61. 61. Increase in Unemployment
    62. 62. Decrease in Direct Tax and Revenues
    63. 63. Decrease in Indirect Tax
    64. 64. Lower disposable surplus for Government Spending
    65. 65. Less money available for spending on Infrastructure
    66. 66. Increased awareness and optimal utilization of natural resources
    67. 67. Usage of latest methods for farming
    68. 68. Increased agricultural production
    69. 69. Increased rural income
    70. 70. Reduced poverty levels
    71. 71. Decrease in child labour
    72. 72. Increase in literacy rate
    73. 73. Increase in the availability of skilled manpower
    74. 74. Congenial atmosphere for setting up high-tech industries
    75. 75. Offshore centres of MNCs
    76. 76. Increase in foreign direct investment
    77. 77. Proclivity towards sustenance of competitive advantage
    78. 78. Greater emphasis on R & D
    79. 79. Technological Development & Adaptation</li></li></ul><li>Bibliography<br />Source Citation:Arana, Ana. &quot;How the Street Gangs Took Central America.&quot; Foreign Affairs 84.3 (May-June 2005): 98. General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 5 Oct. 2009 &lt;http://find.galegroup.com/gps/start.do?prodId=IPS&gt;. <br /><ul><li>Http://www.ecs.baylor.edu/ece/index.php?id=52633
    80. 80. Mr. Brian Thomas
    81. 81. Http://www.peacecorpswiki.org/diversity_and_cross-cultural_issues_in_honduras#
    82. 82. This page was last modified 05:18, 13 march 2009 by willbot. Based on work by
    83. 83. Ian everhart and wiki bot.
    84. 84. Discovery channel website
    85. 85. Local universities bring electricity to rural areas of honduras
    86. 86. Http://planetgreen.discovery.com/tech-transport/green-inventors-rural-electricity.html
    87. 87. By eric leechdenver, co, usa | thu mar 19 13:45:00 gmt 2009
    88. 88. Project muse
    89. 89. Latin american research review
    90. 90. Mollett, sharlene.
    91. 91. Volume 41, number 1, 2006, e-issn: 1542-4278 print issn: 0023-8791
    92. 92. Doi: 10.1353/lar.2006.0012
    93. 93. Http://muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/latin_american_research_review/v041/41.1mollett.html
    94. 94. You tube.com
    95. 95. Http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqeaqvzda3m
    96. 96. Http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzaik-3tmli&feature=channel
    97. 97. Http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nstqpduub3e&feature=channel
    98. 98. Http://www.estadonacion.or.cr/inforegion/english1/ing-01c.html
    99. 99. Sources: prepared based on information from cepal (1977). Information on panama from jované (1999).
    100. 100. Http://www.gmat.unsw.edu.au/ablos/ablos01folder/pratt.pdf
    101. 101. The maritime boundary dispute betweenHonduras and nicaragua in the caribbean sea
    102. 102. By martin pratt, international boundaries research unit, university of durham
    103. 103. Panama Gulf Background: https://www.intranet.sbs.strath.ac.uk/intranet/courseinfo/mba2009/eibe/panama_gulf_environment/background.asp?section=8
    104. 104. Country Data: https://www.intranet.sbs.strath.ac.uk/intranet/courseinfo/mba2009/eibe/panama_gulf_environment/country_data.asp?section=8
    105. 105. Environmental Issues: https://www.intranet.sbs.strath.ac.uk/intranet/courseinfo/mba2009/eibe/panama_gulf_environment/environmental_issues.asp?section=8
    106. 106. UNDP Annual Report: http://www.undp.org/publications/annualreport2009/index.shtml
    107. 107. Brief about country: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honduras</li></li></ul><li>Bibliography (cont.)<br />Macroeconomic Forecasts - Honduras- Business Monitor Online<br />Honduras  -  Economy  -  Sep 03 2009-Business Monitor Online <br />Ratings Update - Mission Failed- Business Monitor Online<br />Source Citation:Arana, Ana. &quot;How the Street Gangs Took Central America.&quot; Foreign Affairs 84.3 (May-June 2005): 98. General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 5 Oct. 2009 &lt;http://find.galegroup.com/gps/start.do?prodId=IPS&gt;. <br /> Source Citation:&quot;Honduras/Nicaragua politics: A maritime border dispute is finally settled.&quot; Economist Intelligence Unit: Country ViewsWire (Oct 16, 2007): NA. General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 4 Oct. 2009 <br />Weissman, Robert. &quot;Dying for drugs: how CAFTA will undermine access to essential medicines.&quot; Multinational Monitor 25.4 (April 2004): 13(6). European Business ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 7 Oct. 2009 &lt;http://find.galegroup.com/gps/start.do?prodId=IPS&gt;. <br />Source Citation:&quot;Honduras/Nicaragua politics: A maritime border dispute is finally settled.&quot; Economist Intelligence Unit: Country ViewsWire (Oct 16, 2007): NA. General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 4 Oct. 2009 <br />Source Citation:McNamara, Paul E. &quot;Using agricultural economics to strengthen nongovernmental organizations&apos; food security programs for people living with HIV/AIDS: an example from Honduras.&quot; American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87.5 (Dec 2005): 1304(6). General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 7 Oct. 2009 &lt;http://find.galegroup.com/gps/start.do?prodId=IPS&gt;. <br />Source Citation:Isgut, Alberto E. &quot;Non-farm income and employment in rural Honduras: assessing the role of locational factors.&quot; Journal of Development Studies 40.3 (Feb 2004): 59(28). General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 7 Oct. 2009 &lt;http://find.galegroup.com/gps/start.do?prodId=IPS&gt;. <br />Source Citation:Wilvert, Calvin. &quot;Sweat and Conservation.&quot; Focus 46.1 (Spring 2000): 32. General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 7 Oct. 2009 &lt;http://find.galegroup.com/gps/start.do?prodId=IPS&gt;. <br />Source Citation:Shiffman, Jeremy, and Ana Lucia Garces del Valle. &quot;Political history and disparities in safe motherhood between Guatemala and Honduras.&quot; Population and Development Review 32.1 (March 2006): 53(29). General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 5 Oct. 2009 &lt;http://find.galegroup.com/gps/start.do?prodId=IPS&gt;. <br />In Honduras, there is variation among the population in the use of medical attendants at birth and institutional facilities for delivery; however, these differences are associated predominantly with socioeconomic variables--education and urbanization--rather than with ethnicity (HMPH et al. 2001; Danel 1998). <br />Source Citation:Arana, Ana. &quot;How the Street Gangs Took Central America.&quot; Foreign Affairs 84.3 (May-June 2005): 98. General Business File ASAP. Gale. University of Strathclyde GSB. 5 Oct. 2009 &lt;http://find.galegroup.com/gps/start.do?prodId=IPS&gt;. <br />
    108. 108. Cluster 1: Influence of US policy on international trade of Honduras<br />Impact of implementation & adaptation of DR-CAFTA on Foreign Direct Investments<br />Will the Maquila business model develop to cope with recession in the USA<br />Impact of transmission of Maquila sector to manufacturing sector on economy<br />Impact of development of trade relations with countries outside US & Latin America<br />What effects will textile impact policy of the USA have on Honduran economy<br />Impact of change in US free trade policy on Honduras export<br />Impact of EU trade agreement on Honduras export.<br />Competition of Maquila products with Asian products in USA.<br />What would be the effect of the reformation of the Coffee cartel.<br />Impact on unskilled labourers due to minimum wage standard<br />
    109. 109. Cluster 2: Role of the judiciary in dealing with corruption & Gang culture<br />Will gangs (MARAS) impact national security.<br />Impact of implementation of Anti-gang law in freedom of Youth.<br />Roles of gangs in slowdown of economy.<br />Effectiveness of the enforcement of Judicial systems & the rule of Law.<br />Impact of censorship on the Honduran TV & News paper.<br />If Judicial system not influenced by executive body what impact would there be on corruption.<br />Will the Judiciary continue to be linked to political systems.<br />Ability of local news paper & TV to impact political change.<br />

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