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The green revolution sweeping the commercial vehicle market is creating new revenue streams for truck industry participants- see how you can benefit from it.

The green revolution sweeping the commercial vehicle market is creating new revenue streams for truck industry participants- see how you can benefit from it.

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  • Distinct service package and hardware platforms will evolve for electric vehicles from a telematics standpoint and this will move from a more smartphone enabled model to being powered by in-car Better place continental wi-fi enabled navigation head unit type devices. Tier 2 EV OEMs like Th!nk will focus more on smartphone controls whilst Tier 1 EV OEMs will use existing telematics expertise into EVs Smart metering Vehicle to grid communication is expected to be introduced only beyond 2014 because of the challenges involved in standardized communication protocols between vehicle and grid. Renault along with EDF (power line communicator) GM using OnStar and Ford using existing SYNC concept are working on this globally. Remote diagnostics will also be a critical feature for an EV because of the need for OEMs and fleet companies (on leasing/rental models) to monitor vehicle and battery systems. This will require connectivity modules (using 3G Cellular communication) and this will make telecom operators and connectivity module suppliers (like Jasper wireless and Telenor Connexion) important players in the market. Jasper wireless is already in talks with Nissan to provide connectivity solution for the LEAF vehicle for both NA and EU markets.
  • Re-tracing the chain of events that led to the slowdown, the first signs of the economic health were from the GDP contraction in the US in Q4 2007. After this initial slide, Europe entered recession in the second half of 2008, with poor sales. The BRIC economies feel the pain in the fourth quarter of last year when sales was down year on year in most developing countries including china, india, thailand, indonesia, russia, brazil etc. However, we are already seeing some positive signs pointing towards a recovery including - Credit re-activation in many global markets with inter-bank and government lending rate cuts - Government support in credit assurances for ailing automakers and suppliers - Positive demand growth in selected markets such as China, Brazil, Germany, India etc. in the first Quarter 2009 Frost & Sullivan expects the global economy to start recovering with emerging markets such as India and China staging a strong recovery in the second half of 2009, on the back of rising consumer confidence, increase in consumption and a gradual growth of exports The better credit situation and government incentives are expected to boost demand in US in early 2010 and in Europe in the second half of 2010 Global sales is expected to touch 62 million or sales of 2006 levels by 2012, post which the market is expected to continue global growth.

Transcript

  • 1. Future of Commercial Vehicle Mobility and Its Impact on the Telematics Business Eco-System November 2009 Sandeep Kar Global Program Manager- Commercial Vehicle Research
  • 2. Agenda Urbanization: Changing Dynamics of the Transportation Industry Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicles: Harbingers of the Green Revolution Green Telematics: Telematics Industry’s Chance to Benefit From Changing Commercial Vehicle Industry The Fleet Managers Have Spoken: Are You Listening?
  • 3. 1950s Urbanization 2000s Suburbanization 2015s Network City 2020s : Branded Cities
    • Most offices/retail centers move to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for “double income, no kids” households.
    •  Hybrid/electric LCVs deliver peak efficiency and cost benefits in intra-city areas .
    • Manufacturing plants, industry offices move out to the first belt area as also medium income families while manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocate in the second and third belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.
    • ‘ Green wave’ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).
    •  HCVs, long-haul vehicles, and inter-modal transportation centers support hub-and-spoke logistics infrastructure.
    Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road Creation of the historic centre and districts Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London In the Developed World: Increasing Trend of De-Urbanization - Polarization of Commercial Vehicle Classes and Rising Demand for Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 4. In the Developing World: By 2020, We Will See Emergence of About 26 Mega Super Cities Creating Demand for “City Trucks” Example 1 : Johannesburg and Pretoria becomes one BIG Mega City called “Jo-Toria” Example 2 : Town planning could evolve with offices and homes adjacent to each other or within a small compound area (e.g. Chennai, Sao Paolo) 2020 + Interconnectivity with Sub Satellite Towns Core City Satellite Towns
  • 5.
    • Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicles: Harbingers of the Green Revolution
  • 6. Class 6-8 Trucks for 2020- Hybrids Rising in North America and Could Make up 15-20% of Total Sales by 2020 Hybridization of North American Commercial Trucks (Class 6-8) : Production Volumes and Market Shares of Major OEMs (2008-2015), Hybrid Power Source (2009-2012) Hybrid Production 39,400 2008 Hybrid Production 600 Navistar 62% Navistar 39% Daimler 16% Volvo/Mack-11% PACCAR 23% PACCAR 27% Daimler-11% Electric Hybrid Hydraulic Hybrid 1,300 2,300 5,600 10,700 2015 Navistar 39% Daimler 16% Volvo/Mack-11% PACCAR 23%
    • Navistar International, PACCAR, Daimler Trucks emerging as prime movers in the hybrid truck market.
    • Electric and hydraulic hybrids to coexist. Eaton Corporation, ArvinMeritor Azure, and Parker Hannifin cementing position as leading powertrain suppliers.
    • Class 8 hybrid truck market’s success will determine volume growth.
    • $15,000 OE price difference needs to be brought down to sub-$10,000 level.
    • By 2020, 1 out of 5 Class 6-8 trucks manufactured in NA will be hybrids
    2009 2020 8% of Class 6-8 Truck Production
  • 7. North American Market for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Expected to Reach Unit Shipments of 18,929 by 2016 Best Fit for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Depot-based urban delivery fleets cover known routes (typically under 100 miles) and they return to base every night where they can be recharged Without Government funds EV do not have a future, as initial cost is very high Total of 18,929 units sold in 2016 from 1,982 units in 2010 at CAGR of 38% GCW / GVW 1* (tonne) Load Capacity (tonne) Typical Application Pure Electric Attractiveness 3.5 1.5 Urban distribution 7.5 4 Urban distribution 12 7.2 Urban distribution 18 11 Inter Urban distribution 26 17 Long distance 40 25 Long distance
  • 8.
    • Green Telematics: Telematics Industry’s Chance to Benefit From Changing Commercial Vehicle Industry
  • 9. Energy Storage Systems in NA HD Hybrid (NA), 2008 Industry Supply Dynamics- Hybrids (Global), 2008 Telematics Service Providers Establishment of New Industry Structure and Supply Chains Offering Opportunities to Telematics Hardware and Service Providers Consumers: Fleets and Owner Operators Truckmakers System Integrators Module Suppliers OEM Vertical Integration Captive Supplier System Suppliers Software Suppliers Component Suppliers Aftermarket Tier 2 Tier 1 Tier 0.5
  • 10. Evolution of Services: Green Telematics Will Bolster the Strength of the Second Wave of Telematics Applications Source: Frost & Sullivan Green Telematics- POI, Navigation, Green Routing, RVD, Prognostics, System Monitoring
  • 11. Since EV is going to be leased telematics can be bundled as standard product and included in lease plan (hidden) EV will resemble commercial vehicle model where OEMs and fleet owners will use RVD / prognostics to better manage vehicles Services like state of charge, booking charging station requires new telematics through connectivity – critical services Electricity usage needs to be monitored and EV drivers need to be billed – telematics is going to be instrumental Telematics is still an option and the high cost of systems and services are transferred to end consumer in open manner Remote vehicle diagnostics including elements like remote supervision and Pro-active maintanence are still niche Real time services require connectivity and conventional users are not ready to pay for such services as they see little value Low degree of applicability for real-time 2 way communication for billing and payments Impact of New Business Models like Leasing and Rentals Need for Diagnostics for Better Maintenance Enabling Real Time Financial Transactions Need for New Types of Services Conventional Vehicle Electric Vehicle Key Factors Overall Fit Low High Low High Overall Fit of Telematics and Connectivity within Electric Vehicles is Driven by Solid Use Cases Largely Absent for Conventional Vehicles 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4
  • 12. ROI Analysis for Commercial Vehicle: Up to 10% Cost Saving from Fuel Consumption Reduction Achievable through Green Fleet Telematics Vehicle & Driver Management Green Telematics Service Direct Cost Reduction Further Benefits Incremental ROI Maintenance Driver Productivity Add on Green Services Pay How You Drive / Pay As you pollute Insurance Green Navigation Contract Maintenance Fuel Consumption Reduction
    • Optimum maintenance management. Remote vehicle diagnostics
    • Reduced wear and tear, higher residual value
    • Reduced down time and repair time
    • Data to control fuel consumption
    • Cost saving and emission reduction through report analysis
    • Key performance indicators for weakness identification and rating
    • Accurate analysis of driver behavior
    • Peer to peer evaluation
    • Incentive calculation
    Improved Management Better Corporate Image Customer and Employee Satisfaction
      • Route optimization and reduced
      • unauthorized driving
      • Improved driver behavior
      • Fuel consumption reduction
      • Further cost saving possible through
      • add on services
    Fleet Structure Optimization M3FA-18
  • 13. Key Product Offerings – Green Telematics can be Offered through a Dedicated New System or Using Existing FMS or Navigation Systems User Group Green Telematics Products
    • Navigation with Green Routing
    • Feature Cost : $ 350-400
    • In case of connected navigation, the monthly service cost is $10-15
    • PAYD Insurance
    • One time investment for hardware - $300-350
    • Monthly fixed cost including communication - $ 35-40
    As an add on service to fleet management system . Comprehensive vehicle and driver management. Service cost - $ 20 -30 per month Connected Navigation with green routing feature could be a value addition As an add on to track & trace real time routing , speeding and idling reports, basic vehicle and driver management. Service cost - $20 per month Dedicated CANbus integrated hardware , with comprehensive vehicle and driver management functionality Hardware cost - $450-500 Service cost - $20-30 per month M3FA-18 Leasing Companies Fleet Company Private users
  • 14. ROI Case Study – Investment on FMS Add on Green Telematics Service can be Realized by 9 Months Based on Just Fuel Cost Savings Facts: Fuel Consumption of Class 8 Truck – 6 miles/gallon Diesel Cost ( Expected US Average) – $ 3.00/ gallon CO2 Emission per gallon diesel burnt – 21 lbs Typical Cost Saving and Emission Reduction for a 80,000 lbs Long Haul Vehicle clocking annual mileage of 100,000 miles Hardware : Mid tier FMS costing - Cost: $2250 Service : Basic Logistics Management + Driver/Fuel/Vehicle management - Cost $50 Cost Saving: Realistic fuel cost saving of 8% achievable through green fleet telematics service Fuel Consumption Fuel Cost CO2 Emission (lbs) Before After 16,667 Gallons $50,000 $46,000 Saving/Reduction 15,333 Gallons $4,000 1,334 Gallons 350,000 321,933 28,067 Case $2250 $600 $ 2850 $4000 Hardware Cost Annual Service Cost Total Cost Incurred Annual Fuel Cost Saving M3FA-18
  • 15. State of Charge Location of Charging Station Booking & Availability of Charging Station POI Package Charging Environment POI Information Dynamic Route Guidance Green Routing Real Time Traffic Information Navigation Package V2G Communication Vehicle Identification Energy Options Charging Status Other Services EV Telematics Package Charger Compatibility Demand Response Customer Preference Go/No-Go Generating Monthly EV Miles Green Report for Fleets Interior Pre-Conditioning Remote Vehicle Diagnostics Entertainment on-demand- Information Fuelling Key Players Charging Infrastructure Providers Vehicle Manufacturers with Established Telematics Offerings Utility Companies Utility Back End Infrastructure Providers Service Packages – Tier 1 EV OEMs with Already Existing Telematics Concepts Likely to Emerge as Prime Movers
  • 16. Connectivity – Electric Vehicles Present Clear and Urgent Need for Connectivity thus Making Telecom Community Critical Players in the Value Chain EV OEM Tier 1 Supplier Content Provider Telecom Operator Connectivity Provider Connected EV Horizon Critical Must Have Services & Need for Real Time 2 Way Communication Charging Station Location Reservation & Booking Diagnostics Data Billing & CRM Connectivity 3G Cellular Connectivity is Apt and Suitable
    • Connectivity providers have already won 2 contracts in Europe for providing connectivity to 2 EV OEMs
    • Companies in North America and Europe are talks with automakers/truckmakers for providing connectivity to electric vehicles
    • Telecom community will become critical players due to need for real time services which are critical for EV drivers
  • 17. Total Commercial Vehicle Telematics Market Forecast: Hardware and Service Revenues to Add Upto $6.3 Billion, Green Telematics Penetration to Reach 5 Percent by 2015 Revenues are projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 18.6 percent Hardware and Service Revenues
    • Telematics services and applications centered around fleet operating cost savings, mobile resource productivity enhancement, hybrid/electric vehicle performance enhancement, and fuel-efficiency maximization will help arrest price decline and foster revenue growth.
    • Prices declining at 3% CAGR, Hardware price (2009) : $558
    • Service Price (2009): 32.6/month
    Green Telematics Market: Green Fleet Commercial Vehicle Truck Parc Penetration (NA), 2008-2015 Services Hardware 17.6 2008 0.7 $ Billion 1.2 2015 2.2 $ Billion 4.1
  • 18.
    • Fleet Managers Have Spoken: Are You Listening?
  • 19. Consumer Research: Voice of Your Customers
  • 20. Voice of Your Customers: Highest Ranking Benefits of Telematics Technologies Note: Proportions less than three not shown numerically in chart. Q: When purchasing powertrain technologies, please rank the top three benefits that are most important to your fleet from the following list below. Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 21. Voice of Your Customers: Highest Ranking Benefits of Powertrain Technologies Note: Proportions less than three not shown numerically in chart. Q: When purchasing powertrain technologies, please rank the top three benefits that are most important to your fleet from the following list below? Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 22. Voice of Your Customers: Communication Channels and Killer Applications Most Applicable Enabling Technology for Current Operations Killer Application GPS- Still in Demand Multimodal- About Time
  • 23. Voice of Your Customers: Purchase Intentions of Telematics Technologies Q: Now we’d like to know how likely you’d be to buy any of the following telematics technologies… Source: Frost & Sullivan Telematics Technology (N=109) Level of Purchase Intention Active (Are Considering) Passive (Might Consider) No Interest Cellular-based Services for On-board Hardware 34% 57% 9% GPS-based Services for On-board Hardware 43% 46% 11% WiFi/WiMax Services for On-board Hardware 14% 69% 17% Remote Diagnostics and Prognostics 39% 51% 10% Back-office Automation 25% 64% 11% Geofencing 29% 57% 14% Voice Communication 33% 54% 13% Dynamic Navigation 21% 65% 14% Real-time Traffic 26% 59% 15% Green Routing 16% 68% 16% Navigation Aided Regulation Compliance 23% 67% 10% Points of Interest Information Services 8% 63% 29% Stolen Vehicle Tracking 33% 55% 12%
  • 24. Key Contacts Sandeep Kar Global Program Manager- Commercial Vehicles Research Direct: 416.490.7796 Fax: 416.490.1533 Email: skar@frost.com