The good, the bad and the ugly… Tammy Marino Associate Economist NYS Department of Labor Division of Research & Statistics...
Private Sector Employment United States January 2008-January 2009 Employment declined 3.7 million (-3.2%) over-the-year.
Private Sector Employment Rochester MSA January 2008-January 2009 Employment down 1,400 (-0.3%) over-the-year.
Unemployment Rates (January of each year) 2009  8.0% 8.5% 8.6% 2008 5.7% 5.4% 6.1% Rochester MSA   U.S. FLR
Unemployment Rates 5.0 6.0 5.6 July 2008 7.3 9.7 8.2 July 2009 4-county FLR US Rochester MSA
Private Sector Employment Rochester  MSA (January of Each Year) Employment down 16,500 (-3.7%) since its peak in 2001.
Two Trends Driving Change… Rochester MSA 1990-2008 Locally manufacturing comprises: 14% of employment and  22% of wages (N...
Employment by Industry 4-County Finger Lakes Region-2 nd  Quarter 2008
Industries that Lost Jobs   4-County Region  2Q 2005 to 2Q 2008 Wage $340 $990 $720 $980 $670 $700 $570 $490 Change -300 -...
Industries that Gained Jobs   4-County Region  2Q 2005 to 2Q 2008 Wage $650 $870 $260 $390 $240 $810 $1,400 $830 Change +1...
Trends in Today’s Economy <ul><li>More Women in the Workforce </li></ul><ul><li>Baby Boomers are Retiring </li></ul><ul><l...
Fastest Growing Occupations Finger Lakes Region 2006-2016 6,590 $66,700 13.0 Accountants & Auditors 2,050 $25,900 13.3 Pre...
Fastest Growing Occupations continued… 9,760 $32,700 8.0 Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 11,300 $23,400 8.3 Jan...
Elementary School Teachers, Ex. Special Ed.   220 Secondary School Teachers, Ex. Special & Vocational Ed.   210 Accountant...
Registered Nurses   330 Computer Support Specialists   100 Paralegals and Legal Assistants   30 Radiologic Technologists a...
Fastest Growing Occupations* % Growth Fitness Trainers & Aerobics Instructors   30.8% Electricians   29.3% Heating, AC, & ...
Occupations Requiring  Moderate to Short-term  OTJ Training,  Finger Lakes, 2006-2016 Occupations with Most Annual Opening...
Occupations Requiring  Moderate to Short-term  OTJ Training,  Finger Lakes, 2006-2016 Occupations with Most Annual Opening...
When will the economy turn around?
Recession Proof Jobs <ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Teacher, Teacher Assistant, Instructor </li></ul></ul><ul><li...
Long Term Trends <ul><li>Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts  </li></ul><ul><li>Computer Software Engineers, ...
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Rochester Area Employment Trends

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  • Long term-employment relatively stable in recent years Employment peaked in 2000 -Unlike the rest of the state and nation Rochester has not re-coupe the jobs lost during the last recession -Employment down -20k (3.7% vs nation +3.8%) Restructuring at EK (60k to 9k)
  • Long term-employment relatively stable in recent years Employment peaked in 2000 -Unlike the rest of the state and nation Rochester has not re-coupe the jobs lost during the last recession -Employment down -20k (3.7% vs nation +3.8%) Restructuring at EK (60k to 9k)
  • Long term-employment relatively stable in recent years Employment peaked in 2000 -Unlike the rest of the state and nation Rochester has not re-coupe the jobs lost during the last recession -Employment down -20k (3.7% vs nation +3.8%) Restructuring at EK (60k to 9k)
  • Rochester Area Employment Trends

    1. 1. The good, the bad and the ugly… Tammy Marino Associate Economist NYS Department of Labor Division of Research & Statistics (585) 258-8870 [email_address] www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/fin/index.shtm March 18, 2009 Finger Lakes Workforce Investment Board
    2. 2. Private Sector Employment United States January 2008-January 2009 Employment declined 3.7 million (-3.2%) over-the-year.
    3. 3. Private Sector Employment Rochester MSA January 2008-January 2009 Employment down 1,400 (-0.3%) over-the-year.
    4. 4. Unemployment Rates (January of each year) 2009 8.0% 8.5% 8.6% 2008 5.7% 5.4% 6.1% Rochester MSA U.S. FLR
    5. 5. Unemployment Rates 5.0 6.0 5.6 July 2008 7.3 9.7 8.2 July 2009 4-county FLR US Rochester MSA
    6. 6. Private Sector Employment Rochester MSA (January of Each Year) Employment down 16,500 (-3.7%) since its peak in 2001.
    7. 7. Two Trends Driving Change… Rochester MSA 1990-2008 Locally manufacturing comprises: 14% of employment and 22% of wages (Nationally manufacturing accounts for 11% of employment)
    8. 8. Employment by Industry 4-County Finger Lakes Region-2 nd Quarter 2008
    9. 9. Industries that Lost Jobs 4-County Region 2Q 2005 to 2Q 2008 Wage $340 $990 $720 $980 $670 $700 $570 $490 Change -300 -300 -200 -200 -200 -200 -100 -100 Food & Beverage Stores Machinery Manufacturing Plastics & Rubber Manufacturing Electronics Wholesale Agents/Brokers Food & Beverage Manufacturing Truck Transportation Wood Product Manufacturing Building Equip. & Garden Stores
    10. 10. Industries that Gained Jobs 4-County Region 2Q 2005 to 2Q 2008 Wage $650 $870 $260 $390 $240 $810 $1,400 $830 Change +1,400 + 500 + 400 + 300 + 300 + 200 + 200 + 200 Nursing/Residential Care Fac. Specialty Trade Contractors Clothing & Accessories Stores General Merchandise Stores Food Services & Drinking Places Educational Services Internet Publishing & Broadcasting Computer & Electronic Product Mfg.
    11. 11. Trends in Today’s Economy <ul><li>More Women in the Workforce </li></ul><ul><li>Baby Boomers are Retiring </li></ul><ul><li>Aging Out of the Workforce </li></ul><ul><li>Service Based Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Global Trade </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Advances </li></ul>Spas, financial services, lawn services, landscaping Hands on careers-hvac, nursing, spas, education, daycare, pet care
    12. 12. Fastest Growing Occupations Finger Lakes Region 2006-2016 6,590 $66,700 13.0 Accountants & Auditors 2,050 $25,900 13.3 Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 5,580 $17,800 13.6 Combined Food Prep & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 2,220 $29,300 14.4 Bill & Account Collectors 9,100 $30,500 15.3 Customer Service Representatives 2,360 $69,300 21.0 Computer Systems Analysts 2,990 $20,300 22.5 Personal & Home Care Aides 7,480 $25,300 23.8 Home Health Aides 3,520 $29,300 24.4 Social & Human Service Assistants 3,620 $81,700 29.3 Computer Software Engineers, Applications 2016 Wages Employment Percent Change Title
    13. 13. Fastest Growing Occupations continued… 9,760 $32,700 8.0 Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 11,300 $23,400 8.3 Janitors & Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners 7,170 $54,500 10.0 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 7,200 $19,000 10.3 Food Preparation Workers 3,890 $36,800 10.5 Construction Laborers 3,970 $26,000 10.6 Security Guards 7,970 $24,600 11.6 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, & Attendants 4,720 $25,100 12.1 Landscaping & Groundskeeping Workers 7,690 $21,000 12.4 Child Care Workers 12,670 $56,200 12.5 Registered Nurses
    14. 14. Elementary School Teachers, Ex. Special Ed. 220 Secondary School Teachers, Ex. Special & Vocational Ed. 210 Accountants and Auditors 180 Middle School Teachers, Ex. Special and Vocational Ed. 90 Computer Systems Analysts 90 Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree, Finger Lakes, 2006-2016 Fastest Growing Occupations % Growth Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts 40.0% Physician Assistants 39.6% Personal Financial Advisors 32.7% Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 31.9% Database Administrators 31.2% Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Median Wage $68,560 $72,010 $84,370 $81,330 $71,450 $63,170 $64,440 $60,560 $62,610 $71,530 Source: New York State Department of Labor
    15. 15. Registered Nurses 330 Computer Support Specialists 100 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 30 Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 10 Dental Hygienists/Assistants/Lab Technicians 60 Occupations Requiring an Associate Degree, Finger Lakes, 2006-2016 Fastest Growing Occupations % Growth Medical Records and Health Info. Technicians 35.6% Physical Therapist Assistants 34.6% Dental Hygienists 29.9% Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 28.1% Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 27.6% Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Median Wage $32,520 $36,640 $59,090 $27,220 $42,650 $60,780 $47,940 $43,250 $50,570 $59,090 Source: New York State Department of Labor
    16. 16. Fastest Growing Occupations* % Growth Fitness Trainers & Aerobics Instructors 30.8% Electricians 29.3% Heating, AC, & Refridge. Mechanics & Installers 26.2% EMTs and Paramedics 24.1% Plumbers, Pipefitters, & Steamfitters 23.5% Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Nursing Aides, Orderlies & Technicians 140 Licensed Practical Nurses 130 Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 70 Carpenters 130 Electricians 60 Median Wage $33,260 $52,530 $41,830 $34,440 $52,550 $46,670 $35,860 $53,690 $40,640 $52,530 Source: New York State Department of Labor Occupations Requiring Either Postsecondary Training or Long-term OTJ Training, Finger Lakes, 2006-2016
    17. 17. Occupations Requiring Moderate to Short-term OTJ Training, Finger Lakes, 2006-2016 Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Customer Service Representative 340 Child Care Workers 290 Janitors and Cleaners 290 General Office Clerks 250 Teacher Assistants 230 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 210 Farmworkers and Laborers 200 Laborers and Freight Movers 200 Home Health Aides 190 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 180 Median Wage $29,300 $19,000 $21,500 $20,300 $32,000 $19,600 $22,300 $23,100 $20,700 $38,300 Source: New York State Department of Labor
    18. 18. Occupations Requiring Moderate to Short-term OTJ Training, Finger Lakes, 2006-2016 Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor Trailer 120 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 110 Security Guards 110 Social and Human Service Assistants 100 Correctional Officers and Jailers 80 Construction Laborers 70 Median Wage $35,300 $23,200 $24,000 $25,400 $54,000 $33,700 Source: New York State Department of Labor
    19. 19. When will the economy turn around?
    20. 20. Recession Proof Jobs <ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Teacher, Teacher Assistant, Instructor </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Health Care </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nurse, Pharmacist, Physician Assistant </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alternative Energy (solar, wind, biofuel…) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Environmental </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ecologists, Hydrologists, Environmental Chemists </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Police Officer, Detective, Security Guard, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Homeland Security </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. Long Term Trends <ul><li>Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts </li></ul><ul><li>Computer Software Engineers, Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Home Health Aides </li></ul><ul><li>Personal and Home Care Aides </li></ul><ul><li>Medical Assistants </li></ul><ul><li>Dental Hygienists </li></ul><ul><li>Dental Assistants </li></ul><ul><li>Physical Therapist Assistants </li></ul><ul><li>Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors </li></ul><ul><li>Computer Systems Analysts </li></ul><ul><li>Physical Therapist Aides </li></ul><ul><li>Network and Computer Systems Administrators </li></ul>
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