New Times Need New Thinking May 2008


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These are turbulent times. Past practices and principles are no guarantee for future success. This presentation proposes 15 new rules of engagement.

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New Times Need New Thinking May 2008

  1. 1. NEW TIMES NEED NEW THINKING Sam Swaminathan
  2. 2. Change <ul><li>There was no change in global GDP for 1000 years, except during the last 100 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation came from the village blacksmith, baker, butcher, barber, and banker. </li></ul><ul><li>Suddenly, the density of connections has grown and so the range of ideas has grown too. </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><ul><li>Web is fastest-adopted technology in history </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Displacing traditional sources of information and interaction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Web is becoming a key resource for: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>news, information, commerce </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>classroom education, distance learning, social networking </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>job searching, workplace interaction </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>civic participation </li></ul></ul></ul>The Future is the Web
  4. 4. The Future is the Web
  5. 6. Visioning the Future…. • Limited number of full service telecommunications companies slug it out for market share. • Demand is mainly for basic voice and data services • With little market growth, focus for telcos is on cost cutting and conservative capital investment. Proliferation of small niche focused carriers and retailers in an open deregulated market. • Demand for advanced products and services fails to materialise. • Fierce price competition pushes network services towards commodity status Open deregulated industry with many competitors. • Explosive demand for convergent products and services breaks down industry boundaries • Cross industry alliances formed to provide high value packaged solutions. • Consolidated industry dominated by a limited number of very large integrated Convergent companies. • Strong growth in demand for value added services and sophisticated content. • Partnerships with government to achieve public policy goals.
  6. 7. Future Services <ul><li>Key areas of evolution: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>User interface [VR, handwriting recognition] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Functionality [PDA capabilities, attachable modules/components] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Level of intelligence [computing power, processing speeds] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Power management [better batteries, fuel cells] </li></ul></ul>
  7. 8. Non-human comms. <ul><li>The future addressable market will no longer be tied to human population growth and penetration </li></ul><ul><li>Unknown ramifications of machine-to-machine comms. In terms of customer service, network traffic, billing demands.. </li></ul>
  8. 9. BIG SCIENCE – 1900s : 1950s MARKETING – 1950s : 1990s INNOVATION – 2000 - Leaping again and again against precedent The Evolution of Business
  9. 10. The New Reality <ul><li>The age of access makes celebrity self-attainable </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in the economic value of information sharing, and decline in the value of information withholding </li></ul><ul><li>The miniaturization of time </li></ul><ul><li>From mass consciousness to individual realities </li></ul><ul><li>Disappearance of borders between nations, peoples, between work and leisure </li></ul>
  10. 11. Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  11. 12. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 1. Dare to Dream and Do
  12. 14. <ul><li>The distance between what we can imagine and what we can accomplish is narrowing relentlessly. Dreams and reality were never so near! </li></ul><ul><li>Francis Fukuyama is dead. Long live Fukuyama. We now possess the power to interrupt history. Don’t let the future catch you flat-footed. </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  13. 15. <ul><li>We need more daring dreams in the areas of : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Corruption control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Racism and discrimination </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political accountability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sycophancy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Education and Higher Research </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Power generation and distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Affordable health care </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sanitation and cleanliness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mass transportation – air, water, ground </li></ul></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  14. 16. <ul><li>The IPL was a fantastic dream – it even has some originality </li></ul><ul><li>Isn’t it time Indians invented more original stuff like the NANO? </li></ul><ul><li>Isn’t it time India started serious work on finding solutions to her problems? </li></ul><ul><li>Our state and central governments have neither the will nor the capability. Businesses must step in. </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  15. 17. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 2. Know that time has shrunk
  16. 18. The Information Age <ul><li>“ It took centuries for information about the smelting of ore to cross a single continent and bring about the Iron Age. During the time of sailing ships, it took years for that which was known to become that which was shared. When man stepped on the moon, it was known and seen in every corner of the globe 1.4 seconds later - hopelessly slow by today’s standards.” </li></ul><ul><li>- James Burke </li></ul>
  17. 19. <ul><li>Internet banking : Traditional banking </li></ul><ul><li>1 : 100 </li></ul><ul><li>When you take away 99% of the cost structure, you change the structure of competition. </li></ul>Competitive Structures
  18. 20. Internet Time <ul><li>The windows of opportunities open and close with great speed today – they are rarely available for a few weeks; often they close in days. They resemble the fluttering wings of a butterfly. </li></ul>
  19. 21. <ul><li>“ We can’t wait for evolution: three million years to grow a lung, another twenty to learn to walk upright, sixty more to grasp a spear, ten more to light a fire.” – Peter Senge </li></ul>Internet Time We need to speed corporate evolution.
  20. 22. Internet Time <ul><li>New Competencies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Speed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Candor </li></ul></ul>
  21. 23. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 3. Know that the scale of everything has changed
  22. 24. <ul><li>Decoding a human gene: $m - $100 </li></ul><ul><li>1 megabyte of data storage: $100s - >$0 </li></ul><ul><li>The share price of Google, Apple, Research in Motion, gold, steel, … </li></ul><ul><li>Intel’s $468m haircut </li></ul><ul><li>From punctuated equilibrium to pulsating disequilibrium </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  23. 29. <ul><li>US Presidential Election Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1996 $448.9 million </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2000 $649.5 million </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2004 $1.01 billion </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2008 ?? </li></ul></ul></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  24. 30. WORD OF MOUSE Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  25. 32. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 4. Recognize that we live in a time of abundance, not scarcity
  26. 33. <ul><li>Abundance everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Abundance of information </li></ul><ul><li>Abundance of choice for the consumer </li></ul><ul><li>Abundance of capitalists- 3b and counting </li></ul><ul><li>South Korea filed 67 times more patents in 1998 than it did in 1985 </li></ul><ul><li>Hyundai’s Sonata has proven to be as good as the BMW [at a fraction of the cost!] – JD Powers customer satisfaction survey </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  27. 34. FORTUNE 500 Rank Company Revenues ($ millions) Profits ($ millions) 1 Wal-Mart Stores 378,799 [351,139] 12,731 [11,284] 2 Exxon Mobil 372,824 40,610 3 Chevron 210,783 18,688 4 General Motors 182,347 -38,732 5 ConocoPhillips 178,558 11,891 6 General Electric 176,656 22,208 7 Ford Motor 172,468 -2,723 8 Citigroup 159,229 3,617 9 Bank of America Corp. 119,190 14,982 10 AT&T 118,928 11,951 11 Berkshire Hathaway 118,245 13,213 12 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. 116,353 15,365 13 American International Group 110,064 6,200 14 Hewlett-Packard 104,286 7,264 15 International Business Machines 98,786 10,418 16 Valero Energy 96,758 5,234 17 Verizon Communications 93,775 5,521 18 McKesson 93,574 913 19 Cardinal Health 88,364 1,931 20 Goldman Sachs Group 87,968 11,599
  28. 35. <ul><li>3 billion new capitalists </li></ul>
  29. 36. NEW YORK : The 27-storey skyscraper being built in Mumbai by Mukesh Ambani, the richest person in India, could be the world's largest and costliest home with a price-tag nearing two billion dollar, according to Forbes magazine. &quot;When the Ambani residence is finished in January, completing a four-year process, it will be 550 feet high with 4,00,000 square feet of interior space,&quot; Forbes said in a report on its website.
  30. 37. <ul><li>1 billion in 1804 </li></ul><ul><li>2 billion in 1927  (123 years later) </li></ul><ul><li>3 billion in 1960  ( 33 years later) </li></ul><ul><li>4 billion in 1974  ( 14 years later) </li></ul><ul><li>5 billion in 1987  ( 13 years later) </li></ul><ul><li>6 billion in 1999  ( 12 years later) </li></ul>WORLD POPULATION
  31. 38. <ul><li>Many of the world's poorest countries were doing worse in 2005 than they were 15 years ago, a major UN report says </li></ul><ul><li>Unless the international community steps in, the poorest nations will continue on a downhill trend even as others progress – UNDP </li></ul><ul><li>It isn’t about scarcity - it is about feast and famine. </li></ul><ul><li>This opens up huge new opportunities for creating wealth in new areas in new ways. </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  32. 39. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 5. Know that your business is under relentless attack
  33. 40. “ Mr. Watson -- come here -- I want to see you” - March 10, 1876
  34. 43. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 6. Admit that what you know today will be worthless tomorrow
  35. 45. The essence of industrial might
  36. 46. Today’s unlikely Gurus Michael Furdyk [18] & Jennifer Corriero [20]
  37. 47. <ul><li>They will challenge any prescription they are given. </li></ul><ul><li>They have high expectations of the technology’s performance – and little tolerance for it when it disappoints. They won’t give it a second chance. </li></ul><ul><li>They differ dramatically not just from previous generations but also from each other. </li></ul>The NetGenners
  38. 48. 7 Steps to Lifelong Learning <ul><li>Write your resume today. </li></ul><ul><li>Give it to a headhunter, and find out what you may be worth in the talent market. </li></ul><ul><li>Compare this with what you are being paid today. </li></ul><ul><li>If you are getting more, get your gun. </li></ul><ul><li>If you are getting less, feel happy – you are safe. </li></ul><ul><li>After 6 months, write your resume again. </li></ul><ul><li>If both resumes are similar, go get your gun. </li></ul>
  39. 49. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 7. Forget about being in control
  40. 50. Sam’s Rules of Engagement From Span of Control to Span of Influence Cooperation Collaboration Conjugation DEMOCRATIZATION
  41. 51. Sam’s Rules of Engagement LEADER = Mentor Coach Teacher Cheer Leader
  42. 52. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 8. Expect the unexpected
  43. 53. <ul><li>When so many minds are linked together, thanks to the Internet, the abnormal takes on the garb of the normal. </li></ul><ul><li>The breadth of human imagination has to undergo serious recalibration. </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  44. 54. <ul><li>The FAA is experimenting with the concept of allowing aircraft to talk to one another directly to determine their flight paths. </li></ul><ul><li>What might broadband do to broadthought? An explosion in human communications will give rise to an explosion in human relationships. </li></ul><ul><li>This explosion will make an incredible number of unexpected things to move into the realm of the routinely expected. </li></ul><ul><li>More dreams will emerge – more radical, more powerful… </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  45. 55. <ul><li>Know that customer loyalty has new meaning. </li></ul><ul><li>Recognize that this is an age of paradox. </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare to deal with new forms of human relationships. </li></ul><ul><li>Know that stock options and profit sharing are not enough. </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  46. 56. <ul><li>Understand that leaders cannot act alone. </li></ul><ul><li>Recognize that empowerment is not a dirty word. </li></ul><ul><li>Beware – women have arrived at the top. </li></ul>Sam’s Rules of Engagement
  47. 58. <ul><li>In two generations, we have shifted from a society that nearly sanctioned stability to one that can barely sit still for a half-hour sitcom, and then only with channel-grazer in hand! </li></ul><ul><li>MTV video rhythms are a reflection of the jangling, quick-cut internal rhythms of our lives today. </li></ul>The New Society
  48. 59. <ul><li>Access creates globalism which disrupts political systems by making borders obsolete.Then the ideals that underlie nationhood – patriotism, democracy, the state, the melting pot, unification, responsible participation – get relegated to the junk heap of history. </li></ul>The Age of Access
  49. 60. <ul><li>No company that wishes to serve mass markets can hope to survive without carrying out serious demographic studies. Learn how and where populations are changing. There will likely be lot fewer Italians and Germans by the year 2060! </li></ul>The Future
  50. 61. <ul><li>There will be fewer people alive than there are today. </li></ul><ul><li>The world’s population will be concentrated within 500 miles of the equator. </li></ul><ul><li>The average human life span will be 300 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Those who marry will do so at least three times in their lifetimes. </li></ul>The Future
  51. 62. <ul><li>Capital punishment will consist of artificially aging the criminal. </li></ul><ul><li>There will be no money standard. </li></ul><ul><li>The answer to the question “Where are you from?” will be “Earth”. </li></ul><ul><li>Driven by total connectivity, the greatest threat could be a lack of genetic variation. </li></ul>The Future
  52. 63. <ul><li>The five things anyone can never have too much of will be unchanged from the time Aristotle first identified them – health, knowledge, self-esteem, friends, and love. </li></ul><ul><li>One thing no one can live without will remain as before – HOPE. </li></ul>The Future
  53. 64. <ul><li>In the ultimate analysis, there is no new economy or old economy. There is just one Global E-conomy. This does not mean that we abandon traditional management concepts. It means we adapt them to the new realities, to fit the way business operates today. </li></ul>The Future is already here
  54. 65. The Network Is The Future
  55. 66. <ul><li>Brought to you by </li></ul><ul><li>Sam Swaminathan </li></ul><ul><li>Center for Creative Thinking </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>