Easter2012 Usa

384 views
305 views

Published on

Easter Market Data

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
384
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Easter2012 Usa

  1. 1. U. S.  Confectionery  Performance and  Consumption  Review Easter 2012  June 5, 2012 Begins at 1:00PM Eastern Time Prepared byNCA Customer Relations Webinar Information: May 2012 Call in # 877‐868‐6863 Code: 879399#
  2. 2. Our Thanks to NCA’s Contributing Partners2
  3. 3. Content • Executive Summary • Key Economic Indicators • Seasonal Sales Results • Seasonal Support • Key Takeaways Confidential & proprietary Easter Report 20123
  4. 4. Executive Summary • Consumer confidence is on the rebound. • Candy is a leading category for Easter and vital for drawing shoppers, driving sales, and   boosting  total market baskets.   Seasonal sales spiked one week prior to Easter Sunday. • During Easter season* confectionery sales grew +2.4% in Total US FDMx.  Supermarket  Channel grew (+2.7%) outpacing Drug (+2.0%) and Mass (2.1%) Channels.   • Chocolate gained +3.7%, Non‐Chocolate Candy also grew +3.0%, while Gum declined ‐ 5.3% due to losses in both base and incremental sales. • Retail price gains and increased assortment, particularly in seasonal items, drove base  dollar sales of chocolate and non chocolate • Quality Merchandising (Feature and/or Display) was highest in the week prior to Easter  Sunday.  Seasonal items and effective merchandising were key to dollar growth. *Easter 2012 Holiday Period = 6 weeks ending April 8, 20124 Easter Report 2012
  5. 5. Key Economic Indicators • Executive Summary • Key Economic Indicators • Seasonal Sales Results • Seasonal Support • Key Takeaways Confidential & proprietary Easter Report 20125
  6. 6. Improvement in Key Economic Indicators Help Make  Consumers More Upbeat About the State of the Economy   Unemployment continues to trend down – nearly a full point vs. year ago  CPI nearly flat in Q1 and unchanged in April  Consumer Confidence unchanged in April, following modest decline in March  Present Situation Index improved  Jan Feb Mar April Unemployment 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 Consumer Price Inflation (% chg) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 Consumer Confidence Index 61.5 70.8 69.5 69.2 Present Situation Index 38.8 46.4 49.9 51.4 Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics,  The Conference Board Easter Report 2012 Confidential & proprietary6
  7. 7. While Only 14% Claimed They’d Spend More for Easter  Season, it was up Slightly vs. Year Ago Consumer Survey:  Will you spend more, the same, or less this Easter? 70% 63.8% 64.3% 60% 50% 40% 30% 24.7% 22.4% 20% 13.8% 11.0% 10% 0% More Same Less March 2012 March 2011 Source:  Big Research Easter Survey March 20127
  8. 8. Women, Low Income, Boomers, and Seniors Planned  Cautious Spending, While 18‐44 Year Olds Claimed Optimism Consumer Survey:  Groups who plan to spend more, or spend less this Easter… 200 Optimistic 180 160 Cautious 140 Cautious 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Men Women < $ 50K > $ 50K 18‐24 25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+ Plan to Spend More Index Plan to Spend Less Index NOTE: 100 = average among all surveyed; (Indexed to spend more= 13.8% of those surveyed, Indexed to spend less = 22.4% of those surveyed) Source:  Big Research Easter Survey March 20128
  9. 9. Among Shoppers, Candy Plays a Vital Role  During Easter Season  • 82% of all consumers celebrate Easter % Buying 100% 89.3% 87.8% 90% 80% 70% 62.5% 60% 53.6% 48.5% 50% 40.7% 39.3% 40% 30% 24.2% 20% 10% 0% Candy Food Gifts Greeting Clothing Decorations Flowers Other Cards 89% of shoppers buy candy thus candy is a key to drawing shoppers to buy  other key seasonal items – Candy shoppers, shop to buy during Easter season Source:  Big Research Easter Survey March 20129
  10. 10. Among shoppers, candy drives spending among  primary shoppers  during Easter Season  • 84% of Women celebrate Easter $60.00 74.9% of women identified  $49.96 Candy  themselves as the primary  $50.00 $47.89 spending  among  shoppers for their  $42.50 women households2 $40.00 $28.66 $30.00 $25.43 $23.09 $20.47 $21.26 $18.71 $17.93 $18.11 $20.00 $11.15 $8.74 $10.00 $7.16 $7.15 $4.65 $0.00 Food Clothing Candy Gifts Greeting Cards Flowers Decorations Other Avg $ per Buyer Avg $ per Shopper Among all women, the primary family shoppers, candy ranks 3rd with average  spend of $18.71 among all women shoppers and $20.47 among those who buy1 Sources:  1. Big Research Easter Survey March 2012;  2. MRI Survey of the American Consumer Fall 201110
  11. 11. Easter gift shoppers also claimed more trips to  department & specialty stores plus buying more on line   March 2012 March 2011 70% +1.4%           +16.1%  +19.8%       +13.4%        +26.4%           +8.6%  64% 60% 50% 43% 40% 30% 25% 19% 20% 10% 10% 4% 0% Discount Store Department Store Specialty Clothing Specialty Store ‐ Online Catalog Store Gifts, etc. Source:  Big Research Easter Survey March 201211
  12. 12. Actual channel monthly results experienced impact of  early Easter in same store sales – Strong March 2012 April 2012 March 2012 9.0% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 7.0% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% Total Less WM Total Less Drug Apparel Department Luxury Discount Drug Wholesale Club ‐1.0% ‐3.0% ‐4.1% ‐5.0% ‐4.4% Source: International Council of Shopping Center ‐ U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index12
  13. 13. Impact of weather:  Warmer weather pulled  spring shopping into Easter period • Record & near‐record breaking  temperatures dominated eastern  2/3rds of nation contributing to  warmest March on record for the  contiguous United States • With exception of southern  regions, and some areas of  Midwest & Northeast rainfall was  limited during Easter shopping  season.13 Source:  National Climatic Data Center U.S. Department of Commerce
  14. 14. Content • Executive Summary • Key Economic Indicators • Seasonal Sales Results • Seasonal Support • Opportunities • Key Takeaways Easter Report 2012Confidential & proprietary 14
  15. 15. U.S. Easter Candy is Big Business  Celebrating with family… Projected  All U.S. Channels* +2.4%Source:  NCA estimates 2012 – seasonal related products
  16. 16. As seen with Christmas and Valentine’s Day, Fewer Channels End  Up Shopped Than Initially Intended; a Consolidation of Trips  Especially Affects Club/Warehouse Stores Where Shopped for Easter Candy % of Adult Candy Buyers n=2,828 Supermarket or Grocery Store 60% 51% Key Takeaway: 41% Discount Store / Supercenter 32% With fewer trips, it’s  24% important to  Drug Store 17% drive shopper  Dollar / 99 Cent Store 24% destination with Candy 14% Club/Warehouse Store 15% 4% Department Store 6% 3% Specialty Candy Shop 6% 3% Planned to Shop C-Store / Gas Station 2% 2% Shopped Channel Card or Gift Shop 5% 2% Source:  * Calculated by dividing the portion who shopped there by the portion that planned to (x100)16
  17. 17. Food Channel Slightly Outpaced Other Channels  During Easter Period Outlet Dollar Share of Total US FDMx  6 weeks end Apr 8, 2012 Total Candy & Gum $1,450,085,632 (+2.4%) Mass 19% +2.1% Food 51% Drug +2.7% 30% +2.0% Easter Report 2012 17Source:  SymphonyIRI – FDMx Six Weeks ending April 8, 2012
  18. 18. Candy Category Grew during Easter Period in  Dollars, but Declined in Unit Sales Total US FDMx Dollar Sales  Unit Sales Total Candy & Gum +2.4% ‐4.4% Total Chocolate +3.7% ‐4.1% Total Non‐Chocolate +3.0% ‐3.2% Unit Sales Decline driven by Price per Unit change +7.1% versus year ago Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201218
  19. 19. Chocolate Contributed 68% of Candy Sales  during Easter Holiday period Total US FDMx 6 weeks end Apr 8, 2012 Dollar Sales, Share and % chg vs year ago +3.0% vs yr ago Total Non‐ Chocolate,  $409,299,168 Total  32% Chocolate,  $870,258,176 68% +3.7% vs yr ago Source:  SymphonyIRI Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201219
  20. 20. Easter Chocolate was Share Leader As Expected Total US FDMx AO CHOC 6 weeks end Apr 8, 2012 1% Dollar Share CHOC  BOX/BAG/BAR  < 3.5OZ SEASONAL  15% CHOCOLATE  EASTER CANDY 49% CHOC CANDY  BOX/BAG/BAR >  3.5OZ 28% GIFT BOX CHOC SNACK SIZESource:  SymphonyIRI 2% 4% Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201220
  21. 21. Growth in Chocolate Driven by Seasonal Easter Candy Total US FDMx 6 weeks end Apr 8, 2012 Dollar sales  % change vs year ago SEASONAL CHOCOLATE EASTER CANDY 7.5% GIFT BOX 0.3% ‐3.8% SNACK SIZE BOX/BAG/BAR > 3.5OZ 0.8% BOX/BAG/BAR < 3.5OZ ‐0.5% Source:  SymphonyIRI Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201221
  22. 22. More than Half of Non‐Chocolate Segment Sales Came  from Chewy and Seasonal Easter Total US FDMx 6 weeks end Apr 8, 2012 Dollar Share of Non‐Chocolate, % Chg vs yr ago +0.3% vs yr ago +3.0% vs yr ago Non‐Chocolate  All Other Non‐ 60% share  Chewy Chocolate of 33% 39% Non‐Chocolate Seasonal Non‐ Chocolate Easter 27% +6.3% vs yr ago Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201222
  23. 23. Total Sales for Easter Week Exceeded Year Ago Despite  Earlier Easter Driven by Stronger Base Sales Definitions: Base Dollar Sales  = Average Weekly  sales with no additional merchandising  Total Candy & Gum:   (everyday sales without promotional ads,  displays, price reductions) Weekly Base and Incremental Dollar Sales Incremental Dollars = Sales dollars above  Average weekly sales ‐driven by  Base Dollars Incremental Dollars promotion $450,000,000 $400,000,000 $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 2‐Jan‐11 2‐Feb‐11 2‐Mar‐11 2‐Apr‐11 2‐May‐11 2‐Jun‐11 2‐Jul‐11 2‐Aug‐11 2‐Sep‐11 2‐Oct‐11 2‐Nov‐11 2‐Dec‐11 2‐Jan‐12 2‐Feb‐12 2‐Mar‐12 2‐Apr‐1223 Source:  SymphonyIRI FDMx ‐ 2011, 2012
  24. 24. Top Selling Week for Both Total and Incremental Sales  Seen in Last Week of Season Total US FDMx  Total Candy & Gum Vol and Avg Unit Price 200,000,000 6 Single Weeks Ending Apr 8, 2012 $1.90180,000,000 $1.85160,000,000 $1.80140,000,000 $1.75120,000,000 $1.70100,000,000 $1.65 80,000,000 $1.60 60,000,000 40,000,000 $1.55 20,000,000 $1.50 0 $1.45 WE Mar 4, WE Mar 11, WE Mar 18, WE Mar 25, WE Apr 1, WE Apr 8, 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012  Base Vol  Incr Vol Avg PriceSource:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012
  25. 25. Both Chocolate & Non Chocolate Candy Experienced  Surge in Sales the Week Prior to the Holiday Total US FDMx Total US FDMx 6 individual weeks end Apr 8, 2012 6 individual weeks end Apr 8, 2012 Total Non‐Chocolate Candy Total Chocolate Candy $140,000,000 $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 $0 $0 6 Wks 5 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks 2 Wks 1 Wk 6 Wks 5 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks 2 Wks 1 Wk Prior Prior Prior Prior Prior Prior Prior Prior Prior Prior Prior Prior Dollar Sales Dollar Sales Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201225
  26. 26. Content • Executive Summary • Key Economic Indicators • Seasonal Sales Results • Seasonal Support • Key Takeaways Easter Report 201226
  27. 27. Easter period Base Dollar Sales Gained, Yet Only  Chocolate Saw Gains in Incremental Sales  Total US FDMx 6 week ending April  8, 2012Total Dollars % Chg YAgo ‐5.2% 3.0% 3.7% 2.4%Incr  Dol % Chg  ‐4.4%YAgo ‐2.0% Total Chocolate only (38% of total sales) 1.2% Segment with gains in  ‐0.1% Incremental Dollars ‐5.2%Base Dol % Chg 4.7%Yago 5.4%(62% of total sales) 3.5% Base Dollars Up for all  Segments except Gum ‐0.06 ‐0.04 ‐0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 GUM TOTAL NON‐CHOCOLATE TOTAL CHOCOLATE Total Candy & GumSource:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012
  28. 28. Average Items per Store Were Up, Driven by  Higher Number of Seasonal Items  FDMx Average Items per Store:   Total U.S. 2011 2012 2011 2012 +5% 336 +11% 350 321 140 122 110 300 +2% 120 250 221 225 100 200 80 +9% 47 51 150 +1% 60 102 103 40 100 20 50 0 0 Easter Seasonal Chocolate Easter Seasonal Non Chocolate Non Chocolate Gum Chocolate28 Source:  SymphonyIRI FDMx Easter week – 4/24/11 vs.4/8/12
  29. 29. Steady Gains in Average Everyday Retail Unit  Prices are Reflecting Cost Inflation Avg Non‐Promoted Price Per Unit +7.1% $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 +13₵ $1.98 $2.00 $1.90 $1.85 $1.80 $1.79 $1.70 +12₵ $1.67 $1.60 For each 1% retail price gain; Projected  Volume Impact =  ‐1.3% ‐1.6%* $1.50 2‐Jan‐11 2‐Feb‐11 2‐Mar‐11 2‐Apr‐11 2‐May‐11 2‐Jun‐11 2‐Jul‐11 2‐Aug‐11 2‐Sep‐11 2‐Oct‐11 2‐Nov‐11 2‐Dec‐11 2‐Jan‐12 2‐Feb‐12 2‐Mar‐12 2‐Apr‐12 *Based on SymphonyIRI price elasticity 2012 modeling Avg Non‐Promoted Price Per Unit Source:  SymphonyIRI FDMx 2011‐2012 Easter Report 201229
  30. 30. Overall Ad Blocks Across All Channels Were Up +3.9%  vs. Year Ago for the Pre‐Easter Merchandising Period Two out of the 7 weeks leading up to Easter saw major increases compared to  year ago week while 4 of the weeks experienced decrease in promotions 13.6% 9.4% 4.5% 27.0% 5.0% 1.6% 5.5%Source: Easter Report 2012
  31. 31. Food Channel Ad Blocks Similar to Last Year Drug and Mass Increased and Had Individual Spikes in two different weeksSource: Easter Report 2012
  32. 32. Total Chocolate Merchandising levels – FDMx Displays Increased in Final Weeks 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% WE Mar 4, WE Mar 11, WE Mar 18, WE Mar 25, WE Apr 1, WE Apr 8, 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 TPR FO DO F&D Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201232
  33. 33. Total Confectionery Category Promotional Prices Are  Trending  Up Driven by Chocolate $2.70 Avg Promoted Price Per Unit ‐ Total Candy & Gum$2.50 Avg Promoted Price Per Unit ‐ Chocolate Avg Promoted Price Per Unit ‐ Non Chocolate$2.30 Total $2.10 Total Chocolate: + 9₵ Chocolate: $1.90$1.90 $1.81$1.70$1.50$1.30$1.10 6‐Mar‐11 6‐Apr‐11 6‐May‐11 6‐Jun‐11 6‐Jul‐11 6‐Aug‐11 6‐Sep‐11 6‐Oct‐11 6‐Nov‐11 6‐Dec‐11 6‐Jan‐12 6‐Feb‐12 6‐Mar‐12 6‐Apr‐12 Halloween Holidays Valentines Day         Easter Source:  SymphonyIRI FDMx 2011‐2012 Easter Report 201233
  34. 34. FDMx ‐ Overall Promotional Efficiency Was Strong Yet  Off Slightly Vs. Year Ago – Driven by Higher Retails Promotional Efficiency 2012 Promotional Efficiency 2011 100 Easter Seasonal items deliver the highest promotional efficiency 92 91 88 90 86 84 82 79 77 80 73 70 70 58 60 55 50 40 Total Candy & Gum Chocolate Easter Seasonal Non‐Chocolate Easter Seasonal Gum Chocolate Non‐Chocolate Promotional Efficiency = How much promoted volume is truly incremental  (over & above everyday sales) (If not incremental, it is subsidized volume – i.e. you’re investing in volume you’d have achieved anyway)  Easter Report 201234 Source:   SymphonyIRI ‐ 1 week prior to Easter Sunday 2012 vs. 2011
  35. 35. FDMx: Easter Displays Drive Significant Incremental Gains  vs. Everyday Weekly Volume Across Leading Segments 900 7.75 ‐ 8.5 times  every day volume 800 700 3.75 – 6 times  3 to 6 times every day  every day volume volume 600 Nearly 1.5 ‐ 4.25  500 times every day  2 –3.75 times  volume 400 every day volume 300 200 100 % Incr. Any Merchandising % Incr. Feature & Display % Incr. Display Only % Incr. Feature Only % Incr. Price Reduction Only Total Chocolate Easter Chocolate ‐ Seasonal Non Chocolate Easter Non Chocolate Seasonal Source:  SymphonyIRI – FDMx ‐ One week ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201235
  36. 36. Supermarket Channel Experienced Gains in both Base  and Incremental Sales in all Segments (ex Gum) Total US FOOD 6 week end Apr 8, 2012 ‐6.5% Total Dollars %  3.5% Chg YAgo 4.5% 2.7% ‐6.5% Incr  Dol % Chg  4.4% YAgo 1.1% 1.5% ‐6.5% Base Dol % Chg  3.2% YAgo 6.1% 3.1% ‐0.1 ‐0.05 0 0.05 0.1 GUM TOTAL NON‐CHOCOLATE TOTAL CHOCOLATE Total Candy & GumSource:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012
  37. 37. More Merchandising in 2012 in Total US FOOD  in 4 Weeks Prior to Easter Total US FOOD Total Candy & Gum 6 individual weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 % Vol Any Merch 50% 45% 45% 40% 38% 37% 35% 35% 35% 34% 30% 6 Wks prior 5 Wks prior 4 Wks prior 3 Wks prior 2 Wks prior 1 Wk prior 2011 2012 Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201237
  38. 38. Chocolate Display Activity Was Significant in  Final weeks for FOOD 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% WE Mar 4, WE Mar 11, WE Mar 18, WE Mar 25, WE Apr 1, WE Apr 8, 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 Source:  SymphonyIRI TPR FO DO F&D Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201238
  39. 39. In final week, Food Channel Had Increased Level  of Display Levels From More Displays per Store % STORES with ANY DISPLAY on  Average # of DISPLAYS on  EASTER WEEK per Stores Audited EASTER WEEK per Stores Audited 100% 8.0 +7% +0.4% +0.5% +5% 7.5 95% 7.0 90% 6.5 Total Chocolate Total Non‐Chocolate Total Chocolate Total Non‐Chocolate 2011 2012 2011 2012Source:   SymphonyIRI Food Store Audit, 1 week prior to Easter Sunday (Store audits of 2800 stores week of Easter 2012 vs. same period year ago) Easter Report 201239
  40. 40. FOOD  Channel Both Chocolate & Non Chocolate  DISPLAY Levels Peaked Week Prior to Holiday Total US FOOD Total US FOOD CHOCOLATE NON‐CHOCOLATE 6 individual weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 6 individual weeks ending Apr 8, 201240% % Vol Display Only % Vol Display Only 38% 40% 36%35% 35% 31%30% 29% 30% 28% 30% 28% 27% 26% 27% 25%25% 25% 24%20% 20% 6 Wks 5 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks 2 Wks 1 Wk 6 Wks 5 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks 2 Wks 1 Wk prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior 2011 2012 2011 2012 Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201240
  41. 41. FOOD Channel SEASONAL CHOCOLATE EASTER  CANDY DISPLAY Total US  70% Easter Seasonal Chocolate  67% 6 individual weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 % Vol Display Only 65% Could attract more  65% shoppers with features &  62% moderate discounts in final  61% weeks to minimize post  60% season deep discounting (Special seasonal items & packages) 55% 55% Display levels reflect  SELLING DOWN OF SEASONAL PRODUCTS – 51% Getting ‘right’ quantity, and compelling  50% merchandising is key to efficient promotion 45% 6 Wks prior 5 Wks prior 4 Wks prior 3 Wks prior 2 Wks prior 1 Wk prior 2011 2012 Confidential & proprietary Easter Report 201241
  42. 42. Non‐Chocolate Declined Nearly 10% in Incremental  Sales During Easter in DRUG Channel Total US DRUG 6 week ending Apr 8, 2012Total Dollars %  ‐6.8%Chg YAgo 1.6% 4.0% 2.0%Incr  Dol % Chg  ‐28.7% ‐9.7% ← Total Non‐Chocolate YAgo 1.5% saw substantial loss  ‐2.6% during Easter ‐3.4%Base Dol % Chg  5.2%YAgo 5.7% ← Base Dollars Grew for  4.1% all segments ex Gum ‐0.4 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 0 0.1 GUM TOTAL NON‐CHOCOLATE TOTAL CHOCOLATE Total Candy & Gum Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012
  43. 43. DRUG Channel Experienced Less Merchandising  Overall vs year ago in 4 out of 6 Holiday Weeks Total US DRUG Total Candy & Gum 66% 6 individual weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 % Vol Any Merch 64% 62% 61% 60% 58% 58% 56% 56% 55% 55% 54% 52% 52% 50% 6 Wks prior 5 Wks prior 4 Wks prior 3 Wks prior 2 Wks prior 1 Wk prior 2011 2012 Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201243
  44. 44. Total Chocolate Merchandising levels – DRUG:   Weekly display levels were similar for entire season yet  feature & display surged in final week 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% WE Mar 4, 2012 WE Mar 11, 2012 WE Mar 18, 2012 WE Mar 25, 2012 WE Apr 1, 2012 WE Apr 8, 2012 Source:  SymphonyIRI TPR FO DO F&D Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201244
  45. 45. DRUG  Channel ‐ Non Chocolate % Volume from  Merchandising  Higher Early & in Final Week vs. YAG;  Overall % Volume  From Display Was Below Year Ago Total US DRUG Total US DRUG NON‐CHOCOLATE NON‐CHOCOLATE 6 individual weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 6 individual weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 % Vol Any Merch % Vol Display Only 75% 73% 35% 70% 67% 30% 28% 65% 62% 60% 25% 59% 23% 60% 58% 20% 20% 19% 19% 55% 17% 50% 15% 6 Wks 5 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks 2 Wks 1 Wk 6 Wks 5 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks 2 Wks 1 Wk prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior prior 2011 2012 2011 2012 Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201245
  46. 46. Promotional Efficiencies Improve For All Segments in  Final Two Weeks Approaching Easter Efficiency = Percent of promotional volume that is incremental  90.0 88 86 85.0 Finishing final weeks of season  82 80.0 with promotional support drives  77 75 75.0 effective and efficient promotion 71 70 70.0 66 65 65 64 65.0 62 61 60 59 60 60.0 57 57 55 55 54 54 54 55.0 51 51 49 50.0 48 47 48 46 46 45 45 44 43 45.0 43 40.0 Wk Mar 4 Wk Mar 11 Wk Mar 18 Wk Mar 25 Wk April 1 Wk April 8 Total Candy & Gum Chocolate Chocolate Easter Seasonal Non‐Chocolate Non‐Chocolate Easter Seasonal Gum Easter Report 201246 Source:  SymphonyIRI 6 weeks ending Apr 8, 2012; FDMx
  47. 47. • Executive Summary • Key Economic Indicators • Seasonal Sales Results • Seasonal Support • Key Takeaways Confidential & proprietary Easter Report 201247
  48. 48. Recommendations for  2013 Easter Season Recommendations Manufacturers/Broker RetailersConsumer  • Monitor economic outlook, plan  • Prioritize category as a leader in seasonal landscape accordingly – bring value & in‐store  spending to attract, convert shoppers – make  theater to occasion merchandising retail stores the seasonal destinationSeasonal Planning • Plan Valentines Day & Easter together:  • Earlier planning & firm commitments with  Plan early, focus on seasonal timing manufacturers, brokers to accommodate  seasonal item supply chain requirementsEffective & Efficient  • Invest in Efficient promotion – right items,  • Strong merchandising – finish season with Promotion weeks, vehicles, quantities, and displays  quality advertising, display final 2 weeks prior to  @ modest price reductions Easter; Best weeks, fair price, on displayExecution • On time seasonal shipments • Strong support for seasonal items w/ display • Support strong Valentines Day sell  • Fast start:  Immediate post‐Valentines Day through, quick season display changeover display plan changeover – critical to seasonContingencies • Anticipate, develop joint business plans  • Partner with manufacturers, brokers to  for potential shortfalls from shorter  build/execute new seasonal occasion for candy season, continued pricing impact48
  49. 49. Thank You We Welcome You to Contact NCA For questions… Larry Wilson – Vice President, Customer Relations Larry.wilson@CandyUSA.com Phone:  202‐534‐1440 ext. 111 Jenn Ellek – Director of Trade Communications and Marketing Jenn.ellek@CandyUSA.com Phone:  202‐534‐1440 ext. 14649
  50. 50. Appendix • Merchandising lifts by vehicle • Grocery & Drug channels50
  51. 51. Grocery:  Easter displays drive significant promotional  lifts vs. everyday weekly volume across leading segments 900 Nearly 8 times  every day volume 800 700 600 3.5 – 5 times  Nearly 2 to 5 times  every day volume 500 every day volume 2 –3.5 times every  Nearly 1 ‐ 3.5  400 day volume times every day  volume 300 200 100 % Incr. Any Merchandising % Incr. Feature & Display % Incr. Display Only % Incr. Feature Only % Incr. Price Reduction Only Total Chocolate Easter Chocolate ‐ Seasonal Non Chocolate Easter Non Chocolate Seasonal Source:  SymphonyIRI – Grocery ‐ One week ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201251
  52. 52. Drug:  Easter displays drive significant promotional lifts  vs. everyday weekly volume across leading segments 900 6.5 ‐ 8 times every  day volume 800 700 2 to 5.25 times every  600 day volume 2.5 – 5.25 times  every day volume 500 2 –3.5 times every  1 ‐ 3 times every  400 day volume day volume 300 200 100 0 % Incr. Any Merchandising % Incr. Feature & Display % Incr. Display Only % Incr. Feature Only % Incr. Price Reduction Only Total Chocolate Easter Chocolate ‐ Seasonal Non Chocolate Easter Non Chocolate Seasonal Source:  SymphonyIRI – Grocery ‐ One week ending Apr 8, 2012 Easter Report 201252

×