Business Information Markets Presentation by  Kenneth B. Marlin Managing Partner Presentation to
Marlin & Associates LLC CONFIDENTIAL Business Information Markets
<ul><li>Where are we? </li></ul><ul><li>What happened? </li></ul><ul><li>Where are we headed? </li></ul><ul><li>What to do...
Where are we? Over the past 12 months many content-oriented firms have seen significant decreases in market value. At leas...
<ul><li>CBS – Market Watch </li></ul><ul><li>Conde Nast </li></ul><ul><li>Disney – Go.com </li></ul><ul><li>Dow Jones – In...
<ul><li>B2C </li></ul><ul><li>B2B </li></ul><ul><li>Subscriptions </li></ul><ul><li>Advertising </li></ul><ul><li>CPMs </l...
<ul><li>Venture Equity </li></ul><ul><li>Banks </li></ul><ul><li>Junk Bonds </li></ul>Money seems to have dried up   300+ ...
<ul><li>What Happened ? </li></ul>Business Information
<ul><li>Marlin & Associates was established to provide specialized investment banking advisory and consulting services foc...
<ul><li>Mergers & Acquisitions Advisory Serves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sell Side Advisor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul>...
<ul><li>Ken Marlin </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mr. Marlin has spent the past 20 years leading, and advising firms that provi...
<ul><li>The Daily Deal, January 3 rd  2002  </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Does the world need another middle-market fo...
<ul><li>INSIDE MARKET DATA,  December 10, 2001 </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mr. Ken Marlin has left merchant bank Ver...
<ul><li>Ken Marlin Justin Kaplan Michael Maxworthy </li></ul><ul><li>646.495.5140 646.495.5142  646.495.5141 </li></ul><ul...
<ul><li>2000 Business Info. Expenditures ($ Millions) $44,200 </li></ul><ul><li>Growth Rate in 2000    7.3%  </li></ul><ul...
<ul><ul><li>Accounting Profit must equal Cash Profit over the long term </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real Cash Profit = Cash...
What Happened? – Bad Assumptions!   <ul><ul><li>People don’t WANT to change – they need a good reason </li></ul></ul><ul><...
<ul><li>Veronis Suhler expects   little growth during first half 2001 as energy prices and inventories remain high, consum...
<ul><li>Where Are We Headed ? </li></ul>Business Information
Over the next five years, VS&A expects Rate of Growth for Business Information Services Spending to slow to 6.9% $0.0 $30....
<ul><li>Year Spending Nominal    GDP </li></ul><ul><li>1996   8.4   5.6 </li></ul><ul><li>1997   7.5   6.2 </li></ul><ul><...
By 2005, Total BIS Market Should Exceed $60 Billion Marketing and Financial Information Will Continue to Lead Veronis Suhl...
<ul><li>Bertelsmann  McGraw Hill </li></ul><ul><li>Bloomberg  Pearson </li></ul><ul><li>Dun & Bradstreet  Primedia </li></...
<ul><ul><li>$6 Billion forecast to be spent in 2001   </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>–  $4.6 Billion in 1999 </li></ul...
<ul><li>Careful Strategic Business Plan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rational Revenue Model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Clear Comp...
<ul><li>Forget What Your theoretical Value “Was” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Market is much closer to Rational Now </li></ul></u...
<ul><li>Questions & Answers </li></ul><ul><li>Kenneth B. Marlin </li></ul><ul><li>Marlin & Associates </li></ul><ul><li>33...
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  1. 1. Business Information Markets Presentation by Kenneth B. Marlin Managing Partner Presentation to
  2. 2. Marlin & Associates LLC CONFIDENTIAL Business Information Markets
  3. 3. <ul><li>Where are we? </li></ul><ul><li>What happened? </li></ul><ul><li>Where are we headed? </li></ul><ul><li>What to do to take advantage? </li></ul>Business Information Markets
  4. 4. Where are we? Over the past 12 months many content-oriented firms have seen significant decreases in market value. At least 500 Public Companies have seen 90% plus declines in Market Value Source: Bridge -91% -92% -72% -83% -87% -96% -99% -89% <ul><li>Market Watch .com </li></ul><ul><li>NBCi </li></ul><ul><li>NewsEdge </li></ul><ul><li>Screaming Media </li></ul><ul><li>Terra Lycos </li></ul><ul><li>Verticle Net </li></ul><ul><li>WAVO </li></ul><ul><li>Yahoo </li></ul>-89% -77% -71% -94% -57% -88% -84% -90% <ul><li>Bright Station </li></ul><ul><li>Comtex </li></ul><ul><li>C-Net </li></ul><ul><li>Dr Koop </li></ul><ul><li>Edgar Online </li></ul><ul><li>Hoover’s </li></ul><ul><li>Infonautics </li></ul><ul><li>iVillage </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>CBS – Market Watch </li></ul><ul><li>Conde Nast </li></ul><ul><li>Disney – Go.com </li></ul><ul><li>Dow Jones – Interactive </li></ul><ul><li>Forbes.com </li></ul><ul><li>Hearst – Woman.com </li></ul><ul><li>NY Times – Digital </li></ul><ul><li>Primedia - Intertec </li></ul>Traditional Content Companies have not been immune to Cutbacks and Layoffs
  6. 6. <ul><li>B2C </li></ul><ul><li>B2B </li></ul><ul><li>Subscriptions </li></ul><ul><li>Advertising </li></ul><ul><li>CPMs </li></ul><ul><li>Metrics </li></ul>Business Models are in Question :
  7. 7. <ul><li>Venture Equity </li></ul><ul><li>Banks </li></ul><ul><li>Junk Bonds </li></ul>Money seems to have dried up 300+ Dot Coms have Shut Down in 4 months
  8. 8. <ul><li>What Happened ? </li></ul>Business Information
  9. 9. <ul><li>Marlin & Associates was established to provide specialized investment banking advisory and consulting services focused exclusively on </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Electronically delivered content </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Software tools </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Databases </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Information technology </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Companies we have worked with include: </li></ul></ul>Marlin & Associates - Overview
  10. 10. <ul><li>Mergers & Acquisitions Advisory Serves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sell Side Advisor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We represent businesses seeking established strategic partners </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We represent sellers whose industries are consolidating </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We help firms with solid technologies combine with more developed management teams </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Buy Side Advisor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We represent businesses seeking to consolidate industry verticals </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We represent CEOs and management teams in the purchase of companies they have identified </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consolidation Opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We help both buyers and sellers execute rollup strategies </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We have identified capital sources for additional funding </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Private Equity Financings </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Follow on Financings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>We assist companies in raising private equity with a $5 mln minimum transaction size </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>Marlin & Associates - Services
  11. 11. <ul><li>Ken Marlin </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mr. Marlin has spent the past 20 years leading, and advising firms that provide digital information and technology. Before founding M&A, Mr. Marlin led the Business Information and Internet practice at Veronis Suhler Stevenson, one of the world's premier media merchant banks. At VSS, Mr. Marlin initiated and advised on several high profile assignments, including the $470 million Leveraged Buyout of Data Transmission Network (“DTN”).Mr. Marlin served as Executive Vice President of Bridge Information Systems. Mr. Marlin was president and CEO of Telesphere, which he founded with several partners. Prior to Telesphere, Mr. Marlin was president and CEO of Telekurs (North America), a firm specializing in software and market data for the securities industry. Mr. Marlin started his business career with The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, where he played prominent roles in group and division management, finance, strategic planning, and mergers and acquisitions. When Mr. Marlin left D&B to join Telekurs, he was Senior Vice President with responsibility for the $400 million revenue Financial Information Services Group. He earned a BA from the University of California (Irvine), an MBA from UCLA. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Justin Kaplan </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mr. Kaplan joined M&A from Veronis Suhler Stevenson, where he was an associate in the Business Information Group. During his career at VSS, Mr. Kaplan completed over 15 corporate finance transactions totaling over $1 billion in aggregate deal value. In addition to working for VSS’ investment bank, Mr. Kaplan also advised VSS’ $1 billion private equity fund on several high profile assignments, including the $470 million leveraged buyout of Data Transmission Network. Mr. Kaplan’s transaction clients to date have included companies such as WPP, Agency.com, Solucient and VNU. Mr. Kaplan holds a B.A. in Near Eastern Studies from Cornell University . </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Michael Maxworthy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mr. Maxworthy joined M&A from Veronis Suhler Stevenson, where he was a Senior Research Analyst. At VSS, Mr. Maxworthy and his team were involved in performing in-depth research on industry standards, trends for valuation of client transactions and strategic alliances. His research has been quoted in the VSS publications (Communications Industry Report, Forecast), The Daily Deal and various Industry periodicals. Prior to joining VSS, Max was a Research Assistant at Morgan Stanley. Mr. Maxworthy holds degrees in Finance and Management Information Systems from Binghamton University . </li></ul></ul>Marlin & Associates – Team Highlighted
  12. 12. <ul><li>The Daily Deal, January 3 rd 2002 </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Does the world need another middle-market focused investment bank? Ken Marlin seems to think so. Most recently a managing director with merchant bank Veronis Suhler & Associates, Marlin is launching his own firm, Marlin & Associates, to provide M&A services for what he calls non-traditional information-based businesses, such as software firms that work with content aggregators. &quot;There are a number of opportunities to work with what's left of the dot-com world,&quot; Marlin said. The firm is still taking care of issues such as cards and letterhead, while its Web site, reserved under the domain name www.marlinandassociates.com, won't be up for a few more weeks. Marlin is beginning with three employees, including himself. If deal flow meets his expectations, however, he could have as many eight people at the end of the year, with two or three at the partner level. &quot;There are so many qualified people that are available right now, given what's happened in the market over the past year,&quot; he said. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>Press Notices
  13. 13. <ul><li>INSIDE MARKET DATA, December 10, 2001 </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mr. Ken Marlin has left merchant bank Veronis Suhler & Associates to set up Marlin and Associates, which will focus on merger and acquisition activities for information-based businesses. The former president of Telekurs North America and Telesphere has taken on &quot;several former colleagues&quot; to join him in his venture. Marlin and Associates (M & A) will also focus on fundraising and will carry out private placements for information- and data-based businesses, including related software and transaction services. Marlin says, &quot;There seems to be a myth that this is a bad time for a firm to make an acquisition or to raise money or to sell or merge. I disagree, it's a great time. Most owners, entrepreneurs and sellers have gotten more realistic about valuations and about their prospects as an independent firm. At the same time, many investors and buyers have plenty of money and recognize that this is a time to be in the market. After sitting out much of the past few months, both sides now seem to be back in the game. &quot; Marlin joined Veronis Suhler, a merchant bank serving the communications, media, publishing and information industries, in late 1999 after a two-year stint at Bridge Information Systems (IMD, November 1, 1999). While at Veronis Suhler, Marlin was a managing director and ran the firm's business information services and Internet practice. He also led the firm's $500 million acquisition of electronic information provider Data Transmission Network. At Bridge he was executive vice president, global marketing and product management. He joined the market data vendor in 1997 after it acquired Telesphere Corp., where he was president and CEO (IMD, June 16, 1997). Marlin founded Telesphere, a software and market data company, with several partners in 1995, acquiring and consolidating several related businesses. One of those businesses was Telekurs North America, a subsidiary of the Swiss-based Telekurs software and market data vendor and a company of which Marlin had been president and CEO until 1995. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>Press Notices
  14. 14. <ul><li>Ken Marlin Justin Kaplan Michael Maxworthy </li></ul><ul><li>646.495.5140 646.495.5142 646.495.5141 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] [email_address] [email_address] </li></ul>330 Madison Avenue 9 th Floor New York, NY 10017 P: 646.495.5140 F: 646.495.5144 www.marlinandassociates.com Marlin & Associates – Contact Information
  15. 15. <ul><li>2000 Business Info. Expenditures ($ Millions) $44,200 </li></ul><ul><li>Growth Rate in 2000 7.3% </li></ul><ul><li>1995 – 2000 Compound Annual Growth (%) 7.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Annual Increase in Spending ($ Millions) $3,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Operating Cash Flow Margins 28% </li></ul>Business Information Industry is still Healthy Source: Veronis Suhler, The Publishing & Media Group
  16. 16. <ul><ul><li>Accounting Profit must equal Cash Profit over the long term </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real Cash Profit = Cash in (Revenue) – Cash out (Costs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Revenue = Price x Quantity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Price must be rational </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>TV = $17 CPM </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Outdoor = $2 CPM </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Banner = $30 CPM </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantity must be Rational </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>How big is the Pie? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is the Value Proposition? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Value = Present Value of Expected Future Cash </li></ul></ul>What Happened – Some Dot Coms Forgot the Basics
  17. 17. What Happened? – Bad Assumptions! <ul><ul><li>People don’t WANT to change – they need a good reason </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adoption of New Technology takes time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Brand building takes a lot of time (and money) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customers’ Willingness to pay cash is based on a Value proposition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>First Mover is not a Barrier to entry and may be disadvantage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitors will react – even old media ones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Success invites new participants </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Valuations based on metrics other than expected future cash flow are not real </li></ul></ul><ul><li>90% is Not Good Enough </li></ul>
  18. 18. <ul><li>Veronis Suhler expects little growth during first half 2001 as energy prices and inventories remain high, consumer confidence remains low </li></ul><ul><li>VS&A expects the US Economy to pick up by 3rd Quarter as interest rate cuts kick in, energy prices stabilize, inventories balance, and consumer confidence returns </li></ul><ul><li>VS&A expects Nominal GDP and Real GDP to drop to 4.7% and 2.9% (CAGR), respectively. </li></ul>Veronis Suhler Communications Industry Forecast, 2001 - (Pre Publication) Bureau of Economic Analysis, March 2001 Forecast Economic Environment has contributed
  19. 19. <ul><li>Where Are We Headed ? </li></ul>Business Information
  20. 20. Over the next five years, VS&A expects Rate of Growth for Business Information Services Spending to slow to 6.9% $0.0 $30.0 $60.0 $80.0 $50.0 $40.0 $20.0 $10.0 1996 1997 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1998 1999 2000 Veronis Suhler Communications Industry Forecast, 2001, (Pre Publication) From 1996 to 2000 BIS Spending increased at a 7.6% CAGR $ Billions Forecast
  21. 21. <ul><li>Year Spending Nominal GDP </li></ul><ul><li>1996 8.4 5.6 </li></ul><ul><li>1997 7.5 6.2 </li></ul><ul><li>1998 7.1 5.5 </li></ul><ul><li>1999 7.7 5.7 </li></ul><ul><li>2000 7.3 7.1 </li></ul><ul><li>2001 7.1 4.5 </li></ul><ul><li>2002 7.0 5.7 </li></ul><ul><li>2003 7.0 5.5 </li></ul><ul><li>2004 6.9 5.2 </li></ul><ul><li>2005 6.8 5.0 </li></ul>Business Information Services Spending Should Continue to Exceed Nominal GDP Growth Business Information Services Source: Veronis Suhler, The Publishing & Media Group
  22. 22. By 2005, Total BIS Market Should Exceed $60 Billion Marketing and Financial Information Will Continue to Lead Veronis Suhler Communications Industry Forecast, 2001 (Pre Publication) Marketing Economic & Financial Credit Payroll & Human Resources Product & Price General Business 1995-2000 CAGR 7.9% 8.1% 6.3% 6.8% 6.0% 8.3% 2000-2005 CAGR 8.2% 7.6% 6.2% 8.5% 7.0% 8.2%
  23. 23. <ul><li>Bertelsmann McGraw Hill </li></ul><ul><li>Bloomberg Pearson </li></ul><ul><li>Dun & Bradstreet Primedia </li></ul><ul><li>Dow Jones Reed Elsevier </li></ul><ul><li>Gartner Reuters </li></ul><ul><li>Hoover’s Thomson </li></ul><ul><li>Hearst VNU </li></ul>“ e”-Content Continues To Be Integrated by Traditional Business Information Firms Reed Elsevier reported $650 mm in “Internet” delivered Revenue in 2000 up from $180 mm Subscription Models Rule
  24. 24. <ul><ul><li>$6 Billion forecast to be spent in 2001 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>– $4.6 Billion in 1999 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>– $7.7 Billion spent in 2000 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term trend is up </li></ul></ul>On-Line Advertising Is Not Dead, but it is concentrating <ul><ul><li>All sites are not created equal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>AOL gets 45% of on-line Ad revenue </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>– Top 9 Publishers get nearly 84% of Revenue </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Depth, and Demographics count </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measured Effectiveness is required </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. <ul><li>Careful Strategic Business Plan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rational Revenue Model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Clear Competitive Advantage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Close Control of Costs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reasonable Path to Profit – – near team milestones </li></ul><ul><li>Sane Valuations based on revenue and cash flow </li></ul>Non-Strategic (Financial) Investment is Available But Investors are demanding
  26. 26. <ul><li>Forget What Your theoretical Value “Was” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Market is much closer to Rational Now </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A very few firms over-corrected </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Some will fall farther </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Real Cash Profit counts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Everybody says they are going to be profitable in six months </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Deals are moving slowly – – Six Months + </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Be proactive – – Right now, mergers often are easier than cash sales </li></ul></ul>Last Minute Advice For Those Looking For Money
  27. 27. <ul><li>Questions & Answers </li></ul><ul><li>Kenneth B. Marlin </li></ul><ul><li>Marlin & Associates </li></ul><ul><li>330 Madison Ave, Ninth Fl. </li></ul><ul><li>New York, NY 10017 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>Business Information
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