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  • It seems it’s consumer spending growth that has fallen. Again, preliminary (based on retail sales, car sales, consumer confidence and CPI inflation). At any rate, the slowdown in overall growth is only moderate. Tighter policy may be required unless the outlook for growth shows downside risks. We think it does.
  • It seems it’s consumer spending growth that has fallen. Again, preliminary (based on retail sales, car sales, consumer confidence and CPI inflation). At any rate, the slowdown in overall growth is only moderate. Tighter policy may be required unless the outlook for growth shows downside risks. We think it does.
  • It seems it’s consumer spending growth that has fallen. Again, preliminary (based on retail sales, car sales, consumer confidence and CPI inflation). At any rate, the slowdown in overall growth is only moderate. Tighter policy may be required unless the outlook for growth shows downside risks. We think it does.
  • It seems it’s consumer spending growth that has fallen. Again, preliminary (based on retail sales, car sales, consumer confidence and CPI inflation). At any rate, the slowdown in overall growth is only moderate. Tighter policy may be required unless the outlook for growth shows downside risks. We think it does.
  • It seems it’s consumer spending growth that has fallen. Again, preliminary (based on retail sales, car sales, consumer confidence and CPI inflation). At any rate, the slowdown in overall growth is only moderate. Tighter policy may be required unless the outlook for growth shows downside risks. We think it does.
  • It seems it’s consumer spending growth that has fallen. Again, preliminary (based on retail sales, car sales, consumer confidence and CPI inflation). At any rate, the slowdown in overall growth is only moderate. Tighter policy may be required unless the outlook for growth shows downside risks. We think it does.
  • Two column slide accommodating a bar chart.
  • download keynote

    1. 1. Real Estate Investment and Development in Germany GEGEN DEN STURM WEATHERING THE STORM DEUTSCHE GRI
    2. 2. Global Growth – How Long to Recovery? Dirk Schumacher Senior European Economist Goldman Sachs International April 2009
    3. 3. The Global Economy
    4. 4. A sharp decline in our GS Global Leading Indicator - some signs of recovery
    5. 5. GS GDP and inflation forecasts
    6. 6. A deep global recession Global real GDP growth
    7. 7. The US economy
    8. 8. US: House prices are falling and the housing bubble is deflating We expect house prices to decline by another 20% -28% since peak in June 2006 Foreclosures are rising fast
    9. 9. US: A steady increase in debt for the private sector
    10. 10. US: More savings – good for the long-run, bad for the short-term US depending on foreign savings US households: Savings are rising
    11. 11. US: A sharp correction in the financial balance of the private sector Private Sector Financial Balance
    12. 12. US: A significant decline in private domestic demand as the private sector repairs its financial balance
    13. 13. Markets and the Banking Sector
    14. 14. Banks are scrambling for cash – only to lend it back to the ECB ECB deposit facility ECB refinancing operations
    15. 15. Credit and Money growth is slowing sharply
    16. 16. What does a typical banking crisis look like? Frequency of seize of non-performing loans in 40 banking crisis In seven out of 40 banking crisis was the share of non-performing loans at total loans 10% Brazil ‘94
    17. 17. What does a typical banking crisis look like? Frequency of seize of fiscal costs in 40 banking crisis In ten out of 40 banking crisis were the fiscal costs less than 5% of GDP Indonesia ‘97
    18. 18. Write-downs of US assets
    19. 19. Euroland: De-leveraging of the banking system has not progressed much – how much is needed?
    20. 20. Little write-downs for Euroland banks outside of US housing and leveraged buy-outs Write-downs of Euroland banks from loans to non-financial corporates Write-downs from loans outside Eurozone
    21. 21. The European economy
    22. 22. European growth forecasts
    23. 23. Eurozone: Our indicators are ‘behind the curve’ GS Leading indicator for IP (PMI stocks/orders, GLI, ifo export exp.) GS Coincident indicator for GDP (PMI comp., Consumer conf., Eurocoin)
    24. 24. Euroland: Exports hit by weaker global demand Global demand is much more important than the exchange rate for Euroland exporters
    25. 25. The downside risk of being export champion A sharp decline in foreign manufacturing orders in Germany Germany hit particular hard by global recession in the industrial sector
    26. 26. Germany, Japan and Sweden export more capital goods
    27. 27. ECB: interest rate channel blocked Bank lending rates are not reacting to ECB cuts … … corporate bond yields neither
    28. 28. Private consumption: France holding up well, but the rest … Retail Sales
    29. 29. Germany: Consumption still price sensitive – car registrations are rising sharply on the back of the ‘wreckage bonus’
    30. 30. Investors are differentiating more among EMU countries – not necessarily a bad thing Credit Default Swaps bp
    31. 31. Some Eurozone countries may face severe funding problems Greece net investment position Greece current account
    32. 32. Eurozone: we are all in the same boat German-owned bank assets Still a huge Currant Account surplus in Germany
    33. 33. Germany: Weakness in consumption mostly home made Consumption stagnating since 2000 Consumption weakness a consequence of sluggish income growth
    34. 34. Central European countries more dependent on external credit than Asian Tigers in 1996
    35. 35. Supply and Yields: Two ‘Extreme’ Examples
    36. 36. Interest rate forecasts
    37. 37. Foreign exchange forecasts
    38. 38. The Largest Economies in 2050 Source: GS
    39. 39. <ul><li>Copyright © 2007 by Goldman, Sachs & Co. </li></ul><ul><li>This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. We are not soliciting any action based upon this material. This material is for the general information of clients of Goldman Sachs. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this material, a client should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities, or derivatives (including options) thereof, of companies mentioned herein. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without Goldman, Sachs & Co.'s prior written consent. This material has been issued by Goldman, Sachs & Co. and/or one of its affiliates and has been approved by Goldman Sachs International, which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority, in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and by Goldman Sachs Canada in connection with its distribution in Canada. This material is distributed in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., in Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch, in Japan by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd., in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Limited (ACN 092 589 770), and in Singapore through Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. This material is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to private customers, as that term is defined under the rules of the Financial Services Authority; and any investments, including any convertible bonds or derivatives, mentioned in this material will not be made available by us to any such private customer. Goldman Sachs International and its non-U.S. affiliates may, to the extent permitted under applicable law, have acted upon or used this research, to the extent it relates to non-U.S. issuers, prior to or immediately following its publication. Foreign-currency-denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of, or income derived from, the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies, effectively assume currency risk. Further information on any of the securities mentioned in this material may be obtained upon request, and for this purpose persons in Italy should contact Goldman Sachs S.I.M. S.p.A. in Milan, or at its London branch office at 133 Fleet Street, persons in Hong Kong should contact Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. at 2 Queen's Road Central, and persons in Australia should contact Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Limited. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a Goldman Sachs entity in your home jurisdiction if you want to use our services in effecting a transaction in the securities mentioned in this material. </li></ul>
    40. 40. Real Estate Investment and Development in Germany GEGEN DEN STURM WEATHERING THE STORM DEUTSCHE GRI

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