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Natalie Gochnour - Ivory institute 2011
 

Natalie Gochnour - Ivory institute 2011

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    Natalie Gochnour - Ivory institute 2011 Natalie Gochnour - Ivory institute 2011 Presentation Transcript

    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 Utah Positioned for the Future … Natalie Gochnour Salt Lake Chamber November 18, 2011
    • Top of Mind Words | U.S. Economy Skittish Vulnerable Uncertain Flat Frustrating Dispirited UnderperformingGlum Sour Angry
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 “We are seeing the worst economic numbers since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008…We are poised for a Lehman-like event.” Fareed Zakaria Global Public Square September 25, 2011
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 “The U.S. economy is surrounded and unable to break through enemy lines.” Wells Fargo Securities Economic Group September 7, 2011
    • What is going on?
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 “We can have a hard decade or a bad century.” Thomas Friedman
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 “It makes no sense for China to have a better rail system than us, and Singapore having better airports than us. And we just learned that China now has the fastest supercomputer on earth – that used to be us.” - President Barack Obama
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 "My biggest beef is that this is part of whats happened in this country…I think weve become wussies. ... Weve become a nation of wusses. The Chinese are kicking our butt in everything. If this was in China do you think the Chinese would have called off the game? People would have been marching down to the stadium, they would have walked and they would have been doing calculus on the way down.” - Gov. Rendell
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 Demography is destiny Economic diversification Global engagement Fiscal prudence
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTE New View Ivory 2012 Population Percent Change: 2000-2010 NH 6.5% WA ME 14.1% VT 4.2% MA ND 2.8% 3.1% MT 4.7% MN 9.7% 7.8% OR NY 12.0% ID SD WI 2.1% RI 21.1% 7.9% 6.0% MI 0.4% WY -0.6% PA CT 14.1% IA 3.4% 4.9% NE 4.1% OH 6.7% IL IN 1.6% NJ NV UT 3.3% WV VA 4.5% 6.6% 35.1% 23.8% CO 2.5% 13.0% KS MO KY DE CA 16.9% 7.0% 6.1% 7.4% 14.6% 10.0% NC 18.5% TN 11.5% SC AZ OK AR DC MD NM 8.7% 15.3% 24.6% 9.1% 5.2% 9.0% 13.2% MS AL GA 4.3% 7.5% 18.3% TX LA 20.6% 1.4% FL 17.6% 25% or more AK 13.3% 15% to 25% 5% to 15% HI U.S. Rate = 9.7% 0% to 5% 12.3% Population LossSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTE New View Ivory 2012 Most Diversified Economies in the Country Index of economic diversity, U.S. = 100Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis Data, Hachman Index
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 Utah Merchandise Exports 16 Billions of $ 13.81 14 12 10.3 10.34 10 7.8 8 6.8 6.1 6 4.7 4.5 4.1 4 2 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: World Trade Center Utah
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTE New View Ivory 2012 State of Utah Rainy Day Fund Combined General and Education Funds (millions) $450 $413.8 $418.5 $400 $350 $313.4 $300 $254.9 $250 $209.8 $200 $146.1 $150 $106.0 $100 $66.9 $50 $27.1 $19.5 $0 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 Utah Job Growth 4.0% Monthly Year Over Percent Change 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%-1.0% -1.4%-2.0% -1.9% -2.3%-3.0% -2.8% -2.9% -3.1% -3.3%-4.0% -4.1% -4.4%-5.0%
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 Utah Labor Market Indicators September 2011 Utah unemployment rate 7.4% U.S. unemployment rate 9.1% Year-over Utah job growth rate 2.8% Year-over U.S. job growth rate 1.1% # Unemployed in Utah 99,400 # Discouraged workers in Utah 35,000-65,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services and Salt Lake Chamber
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTE New View Ivory 2012 Utah Job Growth by Industry September 2010–2011 Total 2.8 Natural Resources 6.2 Construction -0.4 Manufacturing 5.7 Trade, Trans, Utilities 3.0 Information 2.7 Financial Activities 0.6 Prof. and Business 7.0 Education and Health 2.4 Leisure and Hospitality 4.2 Other Services 2.5 Government -0.8 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Year-Over Percent ChangeSource: Utah Department of Workforce Services
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 Utah Weekly Unemployment Claims 4-week moving average 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: U.S. Dept of Labor, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Data
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTE New View Ivory 2012 Utah’s Fastest Growing Detailed Industries (Year-over job growth shown in percentage) - Heavy and civil engineering – 15.0% - Internet service providers – 12.4% - Computer systems design – 11.2% - Professional, scientific and technical services – 10.4% - Employment services – 8.2% - Administration support – 6.7% - Computer and electronic products – 6.5%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTE New View Ivory 2012 Utah Economic Development Wins - Adobe (930) - Pepperidge Farms (55) - Black Diamond Equipment (55) - NSA Center (7,000 const/300 - ATK (820) perm) Litehouse (20) - Litehouse (20) - eBay (50+) - Overstock (150) - Oracle (100) - ITT Corporation (2700) - Sephora (500) - Edwards Life Sciences (1,075) - Hershey (125) - Merit Medical (400) - Procter and Gamble (600) - Goldman Sachs (700) - IM Flash - EA Sports (100) - Reckitt Benckiser (100+) - Royal Bank of Scotland - Incomm (100+) Note: Job growth shown in parenthesesSource: Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 European debt crisis Political dysfunction Housing recovery Lower commodity prices Consumer confidence MENA crises
    • THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012 U.S. Two years of correction Corporate profits Falling labor costs Utah Demography is destiny Economic diversification Global engagement Fiscal prudence Downtown Rising PAC 12