Governor's economic summit 2013 final

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Governor's economic summit 2013 final

  1. 1. Utah Economic Report The Governor’s Utah Economic Summit April 11, 2013 Natalie Gochnour Associate Dean David Eccles School of Business University of Utah
  2. 2. Outline  Utah’s race to the top  U.S. economy “bumbling” along  What should keep us awake at night?  City/state reborn
  3. 3. Utah’s race to the top A tribute to economic leadership
  4. 4. Utah Job Growth Rate 4.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) -2.0% -0.6% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -5.1%Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber
  5. 5. Utah Job Creation 60,000 43,700 39,031 40,000 27,030 20,000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) (20,000) (7,217) (40,000) (60,000) (63,837) (80,000)Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber
  6. 6. Utah Number of Unemployed 120,000 105,645 109,041 100,000 90,062 80,000 76,998 73,000 51,100 60,000 40,000 36,766 20,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber
  7. 7. Utah Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.6% 7.0% 6.7% 6.0% 5.7% 5.2% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber
  8. 8. Utah Net Migration 25,000 19,600 20,000 15,000 10,400 10,000 4,500 5,000 5,000 2,300 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
  9. 9. Utah Personal Income Growth Rate 6.0% 5.0% 4.6% 3.0% 4.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) -2.0% -4.0% -4.5% -6.0%Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
  10. 10. Utah Exports 25 (in billions) $21.0 20 $19.0 $19.1 $13.8 15 $10.3 10 5 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)Source: World Trade Center Utah
  11. 11. Utah Dwelling Unit Permits 18 (in thousands) 16.0 16 14 12.7 12 10.5 9.3 10 8.8 8 6 4 2 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, Revenue Assumptions Working Group
  12. 12. Utah Retail Sales Growth Rate 8.0% 6.7% 6.9% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -8.8% -7.3%Source: Utah State Tax Commission and Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
  13. 13. Top Seven Job Growth States January 2012 – January 2013 U.S. average = 1.5% North Dakota 5.4% Utah 3.1% Texas 2.9% Utah has the 2nd fastest growing Nevada 2.5% economy Colorado 2.5% Washington 2.3%North Carolina 2.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Year-Over Percent Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  14. 14. Utah Job Growth by Industry February 2013 Total 4.0 Natural Resources 0.0 Construction 6.7 Manufacturing 3.5 Trade, Trans, Utilities 4.5 11.5 Information Financial Activities 6.2 Prof. and Business 4.4 Education and Health 3.2Leisure and Hospitality 7.8 Other Services 2.6 Government 0.3 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Year-Over Percent Change Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  15. 15. U.S. economybumbling along… A criticism of economic leadership
  16. 16. The difference between theright word and the almostright word is the differencebetween lightning andlightning bug. -- Mark Twain
  17. 17. Job Losses in Recent RecessionsSource: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  18. 18. U.S. New Monthly Payroll JobsSource: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  19. 19. U.S. Unemployment Rate by DurationSource: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  20. 20. What should keep usawake at night? Besides North Korea
  21. 21. Risks  Fiscal insanity  Utah education warning signs  Certain uncertainty
  22. 22. Fiscal Insanity
  23. 23. Fiscal Crises Naming Conventions• Debt ceiling stand off (August 2011) ANDREA• Super Committee deadline (December 2011) BARRY• Fiscal cliff negotiations (Fall 2012) CHANTEL• Fiscal cliff (January 2013) DORIAN• Start of sequestration (March 2013) ERIN• Debt ceiling revisited (May 2013) FERNAD• Next crisis GABRIELLE
  24. 24. Utah Fiscal Checklist Balanced AAA Bond Budget Line Item Veto RatingRequirement Rainy Day Appropriation Bond Fund Limitation Limitation
  25. 25. U.S. Fiscal Checklist Balanced AAA Bond Budget Line Item Veto RatingRequirement Rainy Day Appropriation Bond Fund Limitation Limitation
  26. 26. Utah EducationWarning Signs
  27. 27. Utah College Completion Rates are Falling Percent Utahns with Bachelor’s Degree of Higher By Age Cohort: 2011 34.0% 32.0% 31.5% 30.5% 30.4% 30.0% 29.3% 28.0% 26.4% 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 25-34 35-44 45-64 65 plus TOTAL Source: American Community Survey, 2011
  28. 28. Utah’s Math Test Score Rankingsare Headed in Wrong Direction35 Utah’s rank among states 3030 29 28 28 27 26 2525 2420 19 19 18 1815 12 12 12 101050 1992 1996 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 4th Grade 8th GradeSource: National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation’s Report Card
  29. 29. Utah Ranks Last Among Peer States 4th Grade Reading Test Scores: 2009235230225220215210 National Rank205 2 3 5 20 23 25 31200 Source: Utah Foundation and National Assessment of Educational Progress
  30. 30. Certain Uncertainty
  31. 31. Unchartered waters
  32. 32. A City/State Reborn The future is bright

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