2010 01 07 Utah Economic Forum Tennert

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Juliete Tennert, the chief economist for the state of Utah, presented the Economic Report to the Governor at the Utah Economic Forum.

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2010 01 07 Utah Economic Forum Tennert

  1. 1. 2010 Annual Utah Economic Review
  2. 2. Bureau of Economic and Business Research Downtown Alliance EDCUtah Ivory Homes Contributors Utah Foundation University of Utah Utah Defense Alliance Utah State University State Government Agencies Department of Natural Resources Department of Workforce Services Governor’s Office of Economic Development Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Utah Science, Technology, and Research Initiative Utah State Office of Education Utah State Tax Commission Utah System of Higher Education
  3. 3. Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget John Nixon, Executive Director Phillip Jeffery, Deputy Director Mike Mower, State Planning Coordinator Contributors Demographic & Economic Analysis Section Juliette Tennert Walt Busse Peter Donner Nancy Grisél Effie Johnson David Stringfellow
  4. 4. Data Highlights Important Factors Overview Challenges Stabilizing Influences Outlook
  5. 5. CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP: The buyer of a credit swap receives credit protection, whereas the seller of the swap guarantees the credit worthiness of the product. By doing this, the risk of default is transferred from the holder of the fixed income security to the seller of the swap. Sources: Investopedia & Google News
  6. 6. QUANTITATIVE EASING: A government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity. Sources: Investopedia & Google News
  7. 7. GREEN SHOOTS: A term used to describe signs of economic recovery or positive data during an economic downturn. Sources: Investopedia & Google News
  8. 8. Employment Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll Employment in Utah December 2007 1.27 million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  9. 9. Employment Total Decline in Nonfarm Payroll Employment from post-2005 Peak to November 2009 -4.6% -2.5% -1.2% -5.3% -4.6% -7.3% -4.6%-3.4% -6.8% -1.7% -5.8% -3.3% -3.8% -6.4% -11.8% -5.2% -2.9% -3.7% -4.4% -2.3% -10% -6.2% -5.1% -6.1% -6.6% -3.2%-6.9% -6.6% -4.9% -2.8% -4.7% -3.3% -3.4% -6.1% -6.1% -5.7% -3.2% -10% -3.6% -2.6% -5.5% -1.1% to -3.1% -5.1% -5.7% -7.3% -1.1% -2.6% -3.2% to -5.0% -2.2% -9.2% -5.1% to -8.2% -6.8% -8.3% to -11.8% Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
  10. 10. Employment Change in Utah Employment by Industry: 2008 to 2009 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  11. 11. Employment Change in Utah Employment by Industry: November 2008 to November 2009 Total Government Federal Government Total Ed. & Health Services Education Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  12. 12. Employment State Unemployment Rates: November 2009 9.2% 6.4% 8% 4.1% 7.4% 11.1% 6.4%6.7% 9.1% 5% 8.2% 8.6% 8.8% 7.2% 14.7% 8.2%12.7% 6.7% 8.5% 9.7% 4.5% 12.3% 10.6% 6.3% 10.9% 9.6% 7.4%8.5% 12.3% 6.9% 8.4% 6.3% 9.5% 6.6% 10.6% 10.8% 10.3% 7% 8.9% 7.8% 7.4% 12.3% 4.1% to 7.0% 9.6% 10.5% 10.2% 8.7% 8% 7.1% to 9.2% 6.7% 11.5% 9.3% to 11.8% 7% 11.9% to 15.9% Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
  13. 13. Employment Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates in Utah and the US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  14. 14. Employment
  15. 15. Income Annual Growth in Utah Average Annual Pay Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
  16. 16. Income Annual Change in Total Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  17. 17. Housing Market Median Existing Home Prices NV US UT Source: Moody’s Economy.com
  18. 18. Housing Market Foreclosure Rates NV 9.4% US 4.5% UT 3.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
  19. 19. Construction Construction Employment as a Percent of Total Employment Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research
  20. 20. Construction Utah Single Family Permit History Source: University of Utah Bureau of Business & Economic Research
  21. 21. State Revenue Inflation Adjusted Percent Change in Combined General and School Fund Revenues Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
  22. 22. State Revenue 365-day State Revenue Sum: Income Tax $2.9 $2.8 $2.7 $2.6 $2.5 $2.4 $2.339 $2.3 $2.233 $2.2 JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
  23. 23. State Revenue 365-day State Revenue Sum: Sales and Use Tax $2.0 $1.9 $1.8 $1.7 $1.6 $1.547 $1.5 $1.428 $1.4 $1.3 $1.2 JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
  24. 24. Targeted Stimulus
  25. 25. Industry Diversity Hachman Index: Ten Most Diversified Economies in the Country Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis Data
  26. 26. International Trade Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  27. 27. Population Utah Components of Population Change Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
  28. 28. Economic Development • City Creek Center • Ebay Computer Center • NSA Data Center • Federal Courthouse • Kennecott Molybdenum Smelter • Milford Wind Corridor • Falcon Hill • UTA FrontRunner South and TRAX
  29. 29. Outlook Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Committee
  30. 30. Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget Utah State Capitol Complex 350 North State Street, Suite 150 Salt Lake City, UT 84114-2210 84114- (801) 538-1027 538- http://governor.utah.gov/dea dea@utah.gov

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