Vulnerability and Impact Assessment climate changePresentation Transcript
Climate Change & the Challenge of Poverty Alleviation 26 - 28 July, 2012 Centre for Climate Change and Environment Advisory DR. MCR HRD Institute Campus, Hyderabad 26 July 2012 Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy Chief Executive Officer [CEO],GEOECOLOGY ENERGY ORGANISATION [GEO] http://e-geo.org
Present carbon cycle Storage and flux of carbon (in billions of tones)SPEED OF EXCHANGE PROCESS Very fast (less than 1 year) Fast (1 to 10 years) Slow (10 to 100 years) Very slow (more than 100 years)
Human activity influence
Variation of the temperature on Earth
Temperature trends (1976 to 2000)
Precipitation trends (1900 to 2000)
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATIONS5 degrees = What separates us from the last glacial era (-15 000 BC) Models’Source : IPCC/SRESA2+1,4 to +5,8 degrees by 2100. forecasts :
Visual impact of Climate Change
Impact of Climate Change on society…Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma… Climate change will cause heavier tropical cyclones.
Cost of extreme weather events
Less visual but with major impact Agriculture and food securityConsequences of Crop yields, irrigation demands... climate change: Forest Composition, health and productivity... Water resources Water supply, water quality... Coastal areas Erosion, inundation, cost of prevention... Species and natural areas> Temperature increase Biodiversity, modification of ecosystems...> Sea level rise> More rain Human health Infectious diseases, human settlements...
VulnerabilityVulnerability to climate change is the risk of adverse things happeningVulnerability is a function of three factors: Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
ExposureExposure is what is at risk fromclimate change, e.g., Population Resources PropertyIt is also the climate change thatan affected system will face, e.g., Sea level Temperature Precipitation Extreme events
Sensitivity Biophysical effect of climate change Change in crop yield, runoff, energy demand It considers the socioeconomic context, e.g., the agriculture system Grain crops typically are sensitive Manufacturing typically is much less sensitive
Adaptive Capacity Capability to adapt Function of: Wealth Technology Education Institutions Information Infrastructure “Social capital” Having adaptive capacity does not mean it is used effectively
Vulnerability is aFunction of … More exposure and sensitivity increase vulnerability More adaptive capacity decreases vulnerability An assessment of vulnerability should consider all three factors
Adaptation“adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities”(Third Assessment Report, Working Group II)Includes “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate
Adaptation (continued)Two types of adaptationAutonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to bewhat people and systems do as impacts of climate changebecome apparentAnticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken toreduce potential risks of future climate change
SL framework: Determinants of adaptive capacityLivelihood ExamplesresourcesHuman Knowledge, SkillsSocial Women’s savings and loans groups, farmer- CBOsPhysical Irrigation infrastructure, seed and grain storage facilitiesNatural Reliable water source, productive landFinancial Micro-insurance, diversified income sources Policies, institutions and power structures
PROSOPIS JULIFLORA - CAUSE AND USE Decrease in rainfall SEMI-ARID Climate change / variability High temperatures ENVRIONMENT Increase in intensity of cultivation -Energy Needs -Charcoal Making Groundwater + Contribution of salts - Biochar use -Use of complex fertilizers - Wood for utility -Surfacing of natural salts -Pods / leaves as from deep inside the ground livestock feed through groundwater ALKALINE SOILS Poor germination, Fallow Suitable for Non-availability of soil minerals lands growth of Decrease in yield Prosopis Juliflora
“VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ENHANSING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN SEMI-ARID AREAS OF INDIA” Policies/Structures Vulnerability Adaptability Rural Poverty Livelihoods DiversificationCommunity Empowerment Energy Bio Diversity Agriculture Production Water Resources Climate Change Appropriate Skills Water Management SCENARIO 1 Human / Social Natural / Environmental / Physical Economic / Political 22 AFPRO
Vulnerability assessment tools CC Vulnerability assessment tools Software / assessment tools Cristal Other tools
Climate Changes in India Increase in surface temperature by 0.4 degree C over the past century. Warming trend along the west coast, in central India, the interior peninsula, and northeastern India.
Climate Changes in India Cooling trend in northwest India and parts of South India. Regional monsoon variations: increased monsoon seasonal rainfall along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh and North- western India, decreased monsoon seasonal rainfall over eastern Madhya Pradesh, North- eastern India, and parts
Climate Changes in India Observed trends of multi- decadal periods of more frequent droughts, followed by less severe droughts. Studies have shown a rising trend in the frequency of heavy rain events and decrease in frequency of moderate events over central India from 1951 to 2000. 26
Climate Changes in India Records of coastal tide gauges in the north Indian ocean for the last 40 years has revealed an estimated sea level rise between 1.06- 1.75 mm per year. The available monitoring data on Himalayan glaciers indicates recession of some glaciers. 27
Per-capita Carbon –dioxide emission (MetricTons)25 20.012015 11.71 9.4 9.87105 3.6 4.25 1.020 USA Europe Japan China Russia India World average
Impacts of Climate Changes Water resources Agriculture and food production Health Forests Coastal areas Vulnerability to extreme events Bioenergy Livelihoods Environment Economy Ecology 29
National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) Protecting the poor and vulnerable sections of society through sustainable development sensitive to climate change Achieving national growth objectives through a qualitative change in direction, ecological sustainability, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. 30
National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) Efficient and cost effective strategies for end use Demand side Management. Technologies for adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions. Promote sustainable development - Regulatory and voluntary mechanisms 31
Core of NAPCC - National Missions National Solar Mission:The NAPCC aims to promote the development and use of solar energy for power generation and other uses with the ultimate objective of making solar competitive with fossil-based energy options. National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency: Current initiatives are expected to yieldThese National Missions are being institutionalized by therespective Ministries/ Departments. 2012. savings of 10,000 MW by
Core of NAPCC - National Missions National Mission on Sustainable Habitat: To promote energy efficiency as a core component of urban planning. National Water Mission: With water scarcity projected to worsen as a result of climate change, the plan sets a goal of a 20% improvement in water use efficiency through pricing and other measures.
Core of NAPCC - National Missions National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem: The plan aims to conserve biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecological values in the Himalayan region, where glaciers that are a major source of India’s water supply are projected to recede as a result of global warming. National Mission for a “Green India”: Goals include the afforestation of 6 million hectares of degraded forest lands and expanding forest cover from 23% to 33% of India’s territory.
Core of NAPCC - National Missions National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture: The plan aims to support climate adaptation in agriculture through the development of climate-resilient crops, expansion of weather insurance mechanisms, and agricultural practices. National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change: To gain a better understanding of climate science, impacts and challenges, the plan envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund, improved climate modeling, and increased international collaboration. It also encourage private sector initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies through venture capital funds.
Source: New Indian Express
Rural Livlihoods - ResourcesThe livelihoods of the rural poor are directly dependent on environmental resources. land Water Forests EnergyAre vulnerable to weather and climate variability groundwater forestwater stress soil fertility levels habitats increases declines recede disappear.
Rural PoorPaying the mostClimate change will only exacerbate the vulnerabilities of the rural poor. As climate- sensitive, natural ecosystems deteriorate, subsi stence will slip further out of reach.
India’s ruralpoor, who have leastcontributed toClimate Change, willpay some of theproblem’s heaviesttolls.
In the life of a farmer climate Variability andExtreme events are more important than climate change
Climate Change /Variability in Semi-aridregionsPrecipitation is less thanpotential evapo-transpiration.Low annual rainfall of 25 to60 centimeters and havingscrubby vegetation withshort, coarse grasses; notcompletely arid.
Climate Change / Variability in Semi-arid regionsClimate Variability and extremes are an expectedcharacteristic of semi-arid lands.The people vulnerable to droughts, which triggerfrequent subsistence crises In Andhra PradeshIncreasing cropfailures, dislocation, famine, poverty, increases 2009 witness tostratification and the social inequities. • 50 years old drought • 100 years old flood
“VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ENHANSING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN SEMI-ARID AREAS OF INDIA” Policies/Structures Vulnerability Adaptability Rural Poverty Livelihoods DiversificationCommunity Empowerment Energy Bio Diversity Agriculture Production Water Resources Climate Change Appropriate Skills Water Management SCENARIO 1 Human / Social Natural / Environmental / Physical Economic / Political 44 AFPRO
GSBC PROJECTINTEGRATED APPROACH
Major challenges of Agriculture Climate change - Soil fertility Water variability - management extremes Impact of Burning of crop Alkalinity of soils hazardous residue pesticides and nitrogen
Field levelinterventions ACTIVITY CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT FACILITATION RESEARCH
INCREAS ED PRODUC SOIL SPIRITU CARBON TEMPER AL TION SEQUES ATURE TRATION REGULAT ED CREMAT BELIEFS ION TERMITE MOISTUR S / ANTS E CULTUR REPULSI RETENTI AL ON ON ALTARS RITUALS ENER GY EARTHW WATER ORMS SOIL FESTIVA CONSER INCREAS AMENDMENT LS VATION E BIOC HAR NITROGE N/ BIOMASS BIOCHAR PHOSPH COMPOS OROUS T FOOD RETENTI INSECT PRESE ON REPEL RVING SOIL LENT FOOD MICROBE S NURSERI FILTERI DENSITY PESTICID ES CLEANI NG INCREAS ES NG MEDIA E ADBSOR BTION GOOD STOVESSOAK MEDICI • TLUDsPITS NE • Other stoves POULTRY - CH4 PRACTICES REDUCTI ONBIOCH AR MATTR WASTE SOURCEURINAL ESS MANAGE S CROP S MENT (BIOMAS RESIDUE • Sludge S) BIOCH TOOTH ANIMALS AR POWD BRICKS ER AQUAR AIR POULTR LIVESTOC IUM / QUALITY FYM / K - URINE Y LITTER TERRA WATER • CO2 / COMPOST AND RIUMS TREAT CH4 DUNG MENT Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy, GEO http://e-geo.org | http://biocharculture.com
RITUAL / SPIRITUAL / AGRICUTU SANITATIO SOIL ANIMALS ENERGY HABITAT HEALTH WATER RELIGIOUS RE N / PRACTICE S APPLICATIO PADDY N IN ANIMAL BIOCHAR SOURCE FIRE / ALTAR METHANE PLACES TO BIOCHAR URINALS FROM / YAGNAS / EMISSIONS TAP BRICKS CLEANING EFFICIENT AGNIHOTRA REDUCTION URINE, SANI TEETH TLUD COOK TATION AND STOVESBIOCHAR EMISSIONS REDUCTION BIOCHAR PESTICIDE & TOILETS COMPLEX BIOCHAR IN FIRE DURING CHEMICALS AQUARIUMS WATER FESTIVALS AFFECTS RUMINANT AS BY PURIFICATIO MITIGATION ANIMALS PRODUCT N– METHANE BIOCHAR IN FROM BIOCHAR COLOR, ODO EMISSIONS CATTLE GASIFIER TABLETS R, REMOVAL EMMISIONS REDUCTION SHEDS STOVES, BOI OF HARMFUL REDUCTION AS FEED LERS ETC ELEMENTS, FROM FARM ADDITIVE BIOCHAR IN ETC. CREMATION YARD POULTRY S MANURES FARMS CLEANING AND PLATES / COMPOSTS UTENSILSBIOCHAR SOAKING IN CHARCOAL BIOCHAR INCOMPOST WITH PRODUCTIO FOOD AS ANIMALS N FROM NATURAL / CROP BIOCHAR IN PART OF URINE AND BIOMASS / ARTIFICIAL RESIDUE FRIDGES, MA FOOD EXCRETA - WASTE FIRES IN MANAGEME TTRESSES, E BATHING PREPARATIO VALUE MANAGEME FORESTS / NT TC. NS ADDITION NT FIELDS, ETC.
Biocharculture Biocharculture is the process of using Biochar, including for cultivation of crops• Biochar is the charcoal produced from carbonaceous source material. Sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems• Biocharculture is one of the means to integrate for sustainable cultivation and carbon sequestration.• Biochar is usually produced at around temperatures 300 to 600 degrees centigrade for example as found in the common biomass cook stoves.• Because of its macromolecular structure dominated by aromatic C, Biochar is more recalcitrant to microbial decomposition than uncharred organic matter
Biocharculture Adaptation benefits Lessen the impact of hazardousSecuring the crop pesticides and Reclaim the waterfrom drought and complex degraded soils, conservation,climate variabiiity chemicals & to reduce plant uptake. reducing Conversion of emissions and crop residue into increases in increasing the Biochar an option Increase in crop C, N, pH, andsequestration of and address yield available P to the greenhouse carbon plants gases sequestration Increase in the Reduction in Impacts of Temperature soil microbes / leaching of the bioBiochar last more regulation in the worms at the / chem fertilizersthan 1000 years. soil biochar and soil applied interface
CONTROL AND BIOCHAR - OKRA Farmers focus 80% ON CROP 20% ON SOIL
APPLICATION IN THE FIELDS
OKRA - CONTROL AND BIOCHAR PLOTS CONTROL BIOCHAR COMPOST 4 KGS 8 KGS 12 KGS
BIOCHAR CONTROL1.5 FEET 6 FEET
Adaptation Initiatives Requirement Objective1 Better SMC conservation - Support for management of Addition of OM (compost, Labor Cost soil moisture manures, GM,GLM) Cover crop, mulching, - Biomass residue incorporation availability2 Efficient use of Minimising the ground - Credit support Ground water water usage for critical irrigation. - Community Social regulations to support control competitive digging of bore wells Increasing SRI under borewell and - Comm.support efficiency of tanks - Technical water use support Micro-irrigation methods - Credit/financial (drips, spriklers) support
Adaptation Initiatives Requirement Objectives3 Diversify Crop diversification from - Drought , stress r crop / farm wheat, paddy to resistant varieties systems millets, Maize, Sorghum - Timely availability of Mono cropping to seeds, contingency intercropping, mixed seeds cropping - Credit for seeds Soil fertility improvement through cropping systems - CB on technology Encouraging horticulture - Good planting material Biomass improvement/ - Timely availability of integration of Multi-Purpose implements Trees Improved implements - Timely availability of drought power Easing bullock constraint - Marketing support
Adaptation Initiatives Requirement Objectivr4 Strengthening Health care system for - Support for man livestock preventive diseases power production system Strengthening sheep and goat systems - Technical through CIG concept. support Strengthening Fisheries production5 Promoting Promoting back yard - Credit support alternate livelihood poultry activities for Heifer rearing - Technical income Ram lamb rearing support actvity6 Creating Buffers Community managed - Infrastructure fodder banks Seed Banks to maintain - Capacity buffer seed and seeds of Building contingent crops - Manpower
BIOCHAR RESULTSGSBC PROJECT, 2009 (DORUGHTPREVAILED DURING THEGROWING SEASON)
Methane Emissions from paddy fields
Biochar – livestock urine
BIOCHAR URINALS TAPPING NITROGEN FROM URINE OF ANIMALS AND PEOPLE USING BIOCHAR
OTHER BIOCHAR APPLICATIONSBIOCHAR BRICKS, GREEN BUILDINGS
MAGH SERIES BIOCHAR PRODUCINGSTOVES
MAGH SERIES BIOCHAR PRODUCINGSTOVES
BIOCHAR INDIA | BIOCHARCULTURE | GOOD STOVE | GEO | GOODPLANETBIOCHAR LINKSTerra Preta Info - Indian conext Biochar UrineBiochar Experiments Biochar UrinalsBiochar - Alkaline soilsBiochar - Alkaline soils report Biochar Soil lifeCharcoal production Termites EarthwormsBiochar ProductionMagh Biochar Retort Pottery ShardsGEO mini metal kiln In soilsARTI - Charcoal CleaningBiochar Plants Biochar for CleaningProsopis JulifloraProsopis Juliflora report Green Buildings Biochar BricksStovesMagh series tlud woodgas or Rural Trashmicrogasifier stoves Biochar plusAnila GSBC PROJECT ON CNN