VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Reference notes from UNFCCC & IPCC Resource material - Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy CEO, GEO http://www.e-geo.org

Vulnerability Vulnerability to climate change is the risk of adverse things happening Vulnerability is a function of three factors: Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability to climate change is the risk of adverse things happening

Vulnerability is a function of three factors:

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Adaptation “ adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities” (Third Assessment Report, Working Group II) Notice includes “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate

“ adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities” (Third Assessment Report, Working Group II)

Notice includes “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate

Adaptation (continued) Two types of adaptation: Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change

Two types of adaptation:

Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent

Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change

Sustainable Livelihoods

Scenarios Estimation of future agricultural responses to climate change is usually based on scenarios. The scenarios are essential for evaluating possible future (?) conditions, but they do not necessarily describe the conditions that will actually occur. They should be used to explore possible adaptive measures.

Estimation of future agricultural responses to climate change is usually based on scenarios.

The scenarios are essential for evaluating possible future (?) conditions, but they do not necessarily describe the conditions that will actually occur.

They should be used to explore possible adaptive measures.

Biophysical impact Changes in crop growth conditions Changes in optimal conditions for livestock production Changes in precipitation and the availability of water resources Changes in agricultural pests Changes in soil fertility and erosion

Changes in crop growth conditions

Changes in optimal conditions for livestock production

Changes in precipitation and the availability of water resources

Changes in agricultural pests

Changes in soil fertility and erosion

The combination of biophysical and socio-economic effects can result in: Changes in the mix of crops grown, and hence in the type of farming and rural land use Changes in production, farm income, and rural employment Changes in rural income, contribution to national GDP, and agricultural export earnings.

Changes in the mix of crops grown, and hence in the type of farming and rural land use

Changes in production, farm income, and rural employment

Changes in rural income, contribution to national GDP, and agricultural export earnings.

Household and village models (Semi-commercial economies) to secure a minimum level of income strategies developed to reduce the negative effects of crop yield changes or coping strategies like during drought As with farm models - borrow from existing studies, adapting them to consider changes in climate rather than variations in weather.

(Semi-commercial economies)

to secure a minimum level of income

strategies developed to reduce the negative effects of crop yield changes or coping strategies like during drought

As with farm models - borrow from existing studies, adapting them to consider changes in climate rather than variations in weather.

Scaling up the vulnerability and adaptation results to regional level : Regional assessments => + input provided by regional planners and economists + local data + discussions with a full range of stakeholders

Regional assessments =>

+ input provided by regional planners and economists

+ local data

+ discussions with a full range of stakeholders

Farm-based adaptation measures Choice of crop Use of drought or heat resistant varieties, Use of pest resistant varieties, Use of quicker (or slower) maturing varietiesAltering mix of crops Tillage and time of operations Change planting dateTerracing, ridging, Land levelling, Reduced tillage, Deep ploughing, Change fallow and mulching practices, Alter cultivations, Switch seasons for cropping

Choice of crop

Use of drought or heat resistant varieties, Use of pest resistant varieties, Use of quicker (or slower) maturing varietiesAltering mix of crops

Tillage and time of operations

Change planting dateTerracing, ridging, Land levelling, Reduced tillage, Deep ploughing, Change fallow and mulching practices, Alter cultivations, Switch seasons for cropping

Farm-based adaptation measures Crop husbandry Alter row and plant spacing, Intercropping, Irrigation and water harvesting Introduce new irrigation schemes to dryland areas, Improve irrigation efficiency, Water harvesting, Input of agrochemicals Vary amounts of fertilizer application, Alter time of application, Vary amount of chemical control

Crop husbandry

Alter row and plant spacing, Intercropping,

Irrigation and water harvesting

Introduce new irrigation schemes to dryland areas, Improve irrigation efficiency, Water harvesting,

Input of agrochemicals

Vary amounts of fertilizer application, Alter time of application, Vary amount of chemical control

Understanding the Stakeholder Linkages and Decision Process Small Farmers (80%) Regional Policy Makers V&A Assessment Central Policy Maker (Ministry of agriculture) Technical Policy Makers National commissions Extension service Decisions Project Extension Service

Thank You . . .