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Demographic transition and post-transition challenges in the Russian Federation: forecasts and reality

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Os desafios da transição e pós-transição demográfica na Federação Russa: previsões e realidade são abordados nesta apresentação. Ela foi divulgada durante o seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na …

Os desafios da transição e pós-transição demográfica na Federação Russa: previsões e realidade são abordados nesta apresentação. Ela foi divulgada durante o seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na Agenda do Cairo: balanço e desafios”, realizado nos dias 21 e 22 de fevereiro, em Brasília. Para mais informações, acesse: www.sae.gov.br


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  • 1. Session 4 Demographic transition and post-transition challenges in the Russian Federation: forecasts and reality Presentation by Mr. ALEXANDER ALIMOV Deputy Director Department of international Organizations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 3 March 2014 INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA
  • 2. OVERCOMING THE ‘RUSSIAN CROSS’ from depopulation to sustainable population growth INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • As of 1 January 2014, the population of Russia is 143,657,134 (Rosstat) • 1991 -the population hit a historic peak at 148,689,000 - just before the breakup of the Soviet Union - but then began a decade- long decline, falling at a rate of about 0.5% per year. • 1993–2004, Russia’s population decreased by 5,087,000. • 1990s: ‘The Russian Cross’ - a unique demographic transition: a "demographic catastrophe": the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, life expectancy fell sharply (especially for males), emigration reached significant numbers.
  • 3. OVERCOMING THE ‘RUSSIAN CROSS’ from depopulation to sustainable population growth INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA Factors explaining ‘the Russian Cross’: • shock therapy economic-reform package clearly correlated with higher mortality rates; human cost of the policies promoted was ignored, including unemployment and human suffering, leading to an early death • catastrophic growth of alcohol consumption blamed for more than half (52%) of deaths among Russians aged 15 to 54 in the 1990s • dramatically low fertility - bottomed out around 2000 at just above one child per woman, or half of replacement, • a fall in births during the 1960s, which reduced the number of women of childbearing age in the 1990s, • very high birth rate between 1920 and the beginning of Russia's involvement in World War II (1941), which produced a large cohort of now elderly people to die off during the 1990s • sluggish birth rate between 1945 and 1990, which was for the most part at about replacement level, especially after the early 1960s.
  • 4. OVERCOMING THE ‘RUSSIAN CROSS’ from depopulation to sustainable population growth INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • 1 January 2005, the population of Russia is 143,474 thousands. • 2004 - overall population decrease - 694 thousands or –4.8 per 1000 of the mid-year population, surplus of deaths (2,295,000) over births (1,502,000), amounts to 793,000, not compensated by the positive international migration balance of 100 thousand or 0.7 per 1000. • A new demographic policy takes effect in 2007. • May 2006 - Government measures to halt the demographic crisis are a key subject of President Putin's State of the Nation Address: issue of raising fertility is central in finding a way out of this demographic crisis • National Programme is developed with the goal to reverse the trend by 2020. • Late 2000s the rate of population decrease had begun to slow: if the net decrease from January to August 2006 was 408,200 people, it was 196,600 in the same period in 2007. • Natural population decline continued to slow through 2008-2012 due to declining death rates and increasing birth rates.
  • 5. OVERCOMING THE ‘RUSSIAN CROSS’ from depopulation to sustainable population growth INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • September 2009 - the Ministry of Health and Social Development reported that Russia recorded population growth for the first time in 15 years, with a growth rate of 23,300. • 2012 - the birth rate increased again: 1,896,263 births recorded from 1,793,000 in 2011, the highest number since 1990, and even exceeding annual births during the period 1967–1969. • 2012 - the number of deaths fell to 1,898 million from 1.925 million, natural population loss 2,500, compared with loss of 131,200 in 2011. • 1 January 2013 - population an estimated 143.3 million on up 292,400 from the beginning of 2012 • As of 1 January 2014, the population of Russia is 143,657,134
  • 6. FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s “quiet revolution in family formation” INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA By the middle of the 1990s - signs of change in the Russian fertility pattern: Russia on the threshold of the Second Demographic Transition. The middle of the 1990s - a turning point in Russian fertility and nuptiality models: start of “westernization” of fertility in Russia The cohorts born in the 1970s and more recently: • marry and become parents at more mature ages. • delay the first and the second birth. • increasingly prefer to begin a partnership with cohabitation [“unregistered marriage”] rather than with legal marriage. The spread of informal unions takes on an explosive character In late 2000s, up to 25% of women by the age of 20, and up to 45% by age 25, do not register a marriage with their first partner. For 50% of couples by the third year the relationship is legally formalized in a marriage. Sexual activity among post-Soviet youth increased, the average age of sexual debut has become younger
  • 7. FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s ageing fertility INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • Family planning becomes more effective, contraception replaces abortion. Shift towards the use of more effective contraceptive methods provides grounds for the widespread delay of the first birth and of union formation. • Since 1995, fertility has been aging. The contribution of mothers at less than 25 years of age to the TFR is diminishing, while that of more mature mothers is increasing. • Reduction of fertility at younger ages has not been accompanied, for the first time ever in Russian history, by an increase in induced abortion rates: abortion rates have halved over ten years • The proportion of non-marital births doubled during the last 15 years, amounting to one- third of the total number of births. • The conception of ideal and desired family size has not undergone significant change: two- child family continues to dominate as the model for one’s family. The actual number of births does not strongly diverge from the expected number. • The proportion of voluntary childlessness as a desired behavioral model does not exceed 5%. No confirmation that Russian women's preferences have shifted in the direction of dominance of one child and childlessness.
  • 8. FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s “Second Demographic Transition” – totally westernized? INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • Fertility pattern in Russia is most likely undergoing a major transformation which lies within the main course of fertility evolution in the developed countries and which is named the Second Demographic Transition. If this assumption is correct, the convergence of Russia towards the Western countries, though lagging behind, will become the future of Russian fertility. • Many neo-traditional features of fertility and nuptiality remain, if one compared with the contemporary situation in Western countries:  early marriage and relatively young age at birth of the first child;  low prevalence of deliberate childlessness;  a fast pace in achieving the ultimate family size. • The traditional goal among women is still that of the role as mother, and this still prevails over career and educational self-realisation. • The features, that distinguish Russia from other developed nations, will persist into the next one to two decades.
  • 9. FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s Birth rates: forecasts and figures INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • The mean order of birth fell from 1.8 in the 1980s and remained at the level of 1.5 over the last twelve years. • 1.6 children per woman was expected for the cohorts born in 1980– 1981. • As a result of the initiation of measures to stimulate fertility, an increase in the TFR to the level of 1.6–1.7 is expected by 2015. • 2012: 1,896,263 births recorded from 1.793 million in 2011 with a TFR of about 1.7, the highest since 1991. • The number of births is expected to fall over the next few years as women born during the baby bust in the 1990s enter their prime childbearing years, but this would not have an effect on the TFR.
  • 10. FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s Birth rates: forecasts and figures INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • 2013 - 1.9 million births, about the same as in 2012, but because the number of women of childbearing age is dropping, especially for those in their early 20s, the TFR will actually show a rise. • 2013 - Russian TFR of 1.72 children per woman is highest in Eastern, Southern and Central Europe. • May 2012 - Presidential decree was adopted on, aiming at further increasing fertility rate to 1,753 by 2018.
  • 11. MORTALITY “The real tragedy for Russia” INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • More than thirty-year deterioration of the mortality situation for those of working age, especially men. Major cause - the exceptionally high mortality from all types of external causes and early mortality from cardio-vascular diseases. • 2012 - 1,043,292, or 55% of all deaths in Russia were caused by cardiovascular diseases. The second leading cause of death was cancer which claimed 287,840 lives (15.2%). External causes of death totaled 10.6%, other major causes of death were diseases of the digestive system (4.6%), respiratory disease (3.6%), infectious and parasitic diseases (1.6%), and tuberculosis (0.9%). • The infant mortality rate in 2012 was 7.6 deaths per 1,000 (down from 8.2 in 2009 and 16.9 in 1999). Under-five mortality rate 13 deaths/1,000 live births (2008). • Mortality figures by year (thousand persons) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2303,9 2166,7 2080,4 2075,9 2010,5 2028,5 1925,7 1906,3 1878,3
  • 12. MORTALITY Reduction achieved INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA 2006: mortality rate - 15,1 per 1000 citizens, 2010: mortality rate – 14.3 per 1000 citizens, 2013: mortality rate – 13,1 per 1000 citizens. 2013: number of deaths decreased by 13,3% compared to 2006 (1,878,300 against 2,166,700). Mortality rates of working-age population declined more rapidly than among the general population.
  • 13. LIFE EXPECTANCY “The most pressing demographic challenge” INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • 1990s: dramatic decrease of life expectancy of men and women: 1991-2003 life expectancy fell by 4,9 years for men and by 2,4 years for women. • 1994: Indicators hit the bottom: 63,98 years for all population and 57,59 years for men and 71,18 years for women. • 2000: slow rise started: 65,27 years (59,0 years men and 72,2 years women). • 2007: further rise in life expectancy: 66,8 years (60,4 years men and 73,3 years women). • 2013: life expectancy is 70,7 years (65,2 years men, 76,2 women). • May 2012: Presidential decree adopted - aiming at further increasing life expectancy to 74 years by 2018 . • The actual data surpasses from the forecast figures issued by the United Nations. Assuming the health provision improves, the UN predicted an average life expectancy rising to 65.6 years for the period between 2010 and 2015 and further to 67.1 years (2015 to 2020), 68,6 years (2020 to 2025) and 73,4 years (2045 to 2050).
  • 14. AGEING Every eighth Russian is 65+ INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • Russia is a country with a quickly ageing population. • 1970: the median age - 30,5 years. • 2005: the median age - 37,3 years. • 1990: the population aged 65+ made up 9.9 per cent (10,2 per cent at the beginning of 1991) and the youth aged 0–19 accounted for 29,9 per cent. • From 2006 the number of people over working age (29,4 million people at the begining of 2006) increased by 3,7 million (11,3 per cent) and amounted to 33,1 million at the beginning of 2013. • Currently, every eighth Russian, about 13 per cent of the population, is aged 65 years and older. • The proportion of over 65-year-olds will amount to 18 per cent by 2025. • Moderate estimates from the UN: a third of the Russian population (32,8 per cent) will be older than 60 by 2050; at the same time, the number of 18-year-old men is likely to drop by 50 per cent in the next 15 years.
  • 15. URBANIZATION One of the most sparsely populated countries INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • Russia's population density is 8.4 people per square kilometre (22 per square mile), making it one of the most sparsely populated countries in the world. • The population is most dense in the European part of the country, centering around Moscow (11,5 mln.ppl) and Saint Petersburg (4,9 mln.ppl). • 73,8% of the population is urban. • Since 2012 Russia counts 13 cities with the population over 1 million people. • 8 metropolitan areas (and 3 upcoming agglomerations) with the population over 1 million people are formed around cities with the population under a million people • 23% of population (32% of urban population) lives in 18 largest cities (over 700 000 ppl)
  • 16. MIGRATION 2nd top destination country INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • Over the past 13 years Russia received more than 3 million immigrants, 90% of them are migrants from CIS. Most Immigrants have came from Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. • 1994 – migration peak - 1,200,000, mostly ethnic Russians from ex-Soviet states fleeing from social, economic or political reasons. • In recent years every year 300,000 Immigrants arrive in Russia of which almost half are Ethnic Russians. • For the same period 970 thousand people left Russian Federation, 57% of them moved to CIS countries. • There are an estimated 4 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet states. • In the 1990s, the first years that followed the breakdown of the USSR, an increase due to migration was quite substantial, 6.7 per 1000 (1994). To a large extent, this compensated for a growing negative natural decrease and mitigated the population decrease. Immigration was the main reason Russia didn't suffer substantial population decline.
  • 17. MIGRATION Mitigating population decrease INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • In 2006, in a bid to compensate for the country's demographic decline, the Russian government started simplifying immigration laws and launched a state program "for providing assistance to voluntary immigration of ethnic Russians from former Soviet republics". • In August 2012, as the country saw its first demographic growth since the 1990s, President Putin declared that Russia's population could reach 146 million by 2025, mainly as a result of immigration. • The task of attracting migrants in order to meet the needs of the demographic and socio- economic development includes: facilitating the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad for permanent residence in the Russian Federation, as well as stimulating the return of emigrants to the Russian Federation, attracting skilled foreign professionals, facilitating the integration of immigrants into Russian society and the development of tolerance in relations between the local population and immigrants.
  • 18. RESPONSE TO THE CHALLENGES Family and Population Policies INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • 1990s: no new initiatives in the area of family policy were put forward. The government supported a liberal economic model and the actions of the state in the area of social policy, under the pressure of powerful budget limitations, came down to reactive measures for ameliorating the most acute problems: pensions, employment and poverty. • Attempts to preserve the real value of the packet of family benefits and other payments for children in conditions of high inflation were timid, delayed and on the whole unsuccessful. • Expenditure on family allowance as a percentage of GDP dropped from 2% in 1991 to 0.36% in 2000; family allowance as a percentage of total household income decreased from 5.6% to 1.2%, respectively, in 2004 – 0.28% and 0.4%.
  • 19. RESPONSE TO THE CHALLENGES Family and Population Policies INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA May 2006: President Putin’s budget address to the Federal Assembly : a demographic theme occupies the central place. Priorities and solutions to the problem placed in the following order: • reduction of mortality; • increase in the attractiveness for immigration to Russia; • an increase in the birth rate. 2007: main accent placed on the necessity to stimulate the birth rate, new measures came into force: • significant increases in the size of the basic forms of benefits, including size of pregnancy and childbirth benefits, one-off payment at the birth of a child an additional benefit was paid, determined by the regional administration, monthly maternity leave benefit; • introduction of the “maternal capital” - the most notable innovative measure of the new pro-natalist policy.
  • 20. MATERNITY CAPITAL INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA 2007: 250,000 roubles ($9,600 or 7,200 Euros at the exchange rate of March 2007) be paid to a special individual account for mothers who gave birth or adopted a second child starting in January 2007. 2014: maternity capital reached 429,400 rubles, or 2-year salary of the woman, Paid once in a mother’s life and may be spent three years after the birth of the child for one of the following purposes: • private education for a child of any parity; • obtaining housing in the Russian Federation; • formation of the investment part of a pension. Partial expenditure is allowed per calendar year and in any proportion for the established purposes. Subjects of the Federation provide a regional maternity funds financed from their budgets (up to 350 thousand rubles), in some regions authorized to be used also to purchase a vehicle, housing repairment or a lump sum payment. Subjects of the Federation grant land for individual housing construction to families with three or more children for free.
  • 21. MATERNITY CAPITAL INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA • 2007: 250,000 roubles ($9,600 or 7,200 Euros at the exchange rate of March 2007) be paid to a special individual account for mothers who gave birth or adopted a second child starting in January 2007. • 2013: maternity capital increased to 408,960 rubles, or 2-year salary of the woman, • 2014: maternity capital reached 429,400 rubles. • Benefit is paid once in a mother’s life and may be spent three years after the birth of the child, via an account and for one of the following purposes: private education for a child of any parity; obtaining housing in the Russian Federation; or, the formation of the investment part of a pension. Partial expenditure of “maternal capital” is allowed per calendar year and in any proportion for the established purposes. • 72 subjects of the Federation provide a regional maternity funds financed from their budgets (up to 350 thousand rubles). Regional maternity funds in some regions are authorized to be used also to purchase a vehicle, housing repairment or a lump sum payment. • 80 subjects of the Federation approved the relevant regulatory acts granting land for individual housing construction to families with three or more children for free.
  • 22. THANK YOU! INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA