Inclusive Sustainable Development? Brazil and the middle path

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Apresentação utilizada pelo ministro da SAE/PR e presidente do Ipea, Marcelo Neri, no Fórum Acadêmico dos BRICS, realizado nos dias 18 e 19 de março de 2014, no Rio de Janeiro.

Mais informações: : www.sae.gov.br

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Inclusive Sustainable Development? Brazil and the middle path

  1. 1. Inclusive Sustainable Development ? BRAZIL and the Middle Path Marcelo Neri
  2. 2. USA ChinaBrazil Russia India 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PercentileofWorldwideIncomeDistribution 1 25 50 75 100 Every Country Source: Milotovic (2011) Year 2005 see Neri (2011) Income distribution: a worldwide comparison “Brazil is everywhere in terms of the world income distribution, from the poorest to the richest”
  3. 3. Source: Milovic (2011) Year 2005 see Neri (2011) Brazil as a Small World 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2009 2012 2000 2001 Year GiniCoefficient .75 .65 .55 .45 0,535 0,581 0,589 0,607 0,526 0,539 0,594 China Effect Chindia Effect Inequality Across Nations Brazil GDP Per Capita PPP in 2012 is 93,7% of the World Mean Growth 2001-12: 3.49% Brazil X3,58% World Inequality Within Brazil
  4. 4. Cummulative Growth 2001-2012(%) 120.2% 102.5% 92.1% 84.4% 77.3% 69.8% 58.9% 49.3% 36.7% 26.4% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CummulativeGrowth(%) Per capita Income Deciles Cummulative Real Per Capita Growth by Income Deciles - Brazil Source : IPEA, from microdata of PNAD/IBGE
  5. 5. 2002 to 2012 – Annual Income Change Source: IPEA, from microdata of PNAD/IBGE Horizontal Inequality Annual real growth of household income per capita for selected groups, between 2002 and 2012 Mean 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 6.0 6.6 Small mucipality Incomplete Primary Education Northeast Blacks Rural area No education
  6. 6. % Population with Incomes Below U$ 1,25 a day PPP Fonte: IPEA / SAE a partir do Censo/IBGE Extreme Poverty
  7. 7. Fonte: IPEA / SAE a partir do Censo/IBGE % Population with Incomes Below U$ 1,25 a day PPP
  8. 8. Poverty 6.47% -13.75% -28.54% -40.24% -46.42% -57.90% -58.22% -60.62% -63.01% -69.29%-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Poverty Accumulated Variation since 2002 Millennium development goal U$S 1,25 PPP - Day Source: IPEA, from microdata by PNAD/IBGE
  9. 9. Component that Explains Proportion of extreme poor % of total fall Income growth 50,5% Inequality fall 49,5% Total 100 Dynamic breaking down of poverty Changes in Brazil, 2002-2012 Fonte: IPEA a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE What best explains inclusion ? Growth or Equality ? Middle Path
  10. 10. Determinants of Variations in Per Capita Income Distribution Inequality* and Mean BPC Bolsa Familia Labour Effect Social Security 54,9% 76,41% 12,2% 2,35% 20,8% 19,33% 5,4% 2% * Gini In terms of inequality, what is the most effective combination of social transfers? Every additional R$ spent with Bolsa Familia impacts inequality 369% e 86% more than in social security and BPC, respectively.

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