Dr  joe brics draftDemographic transition and post – transition challenges  in  BRICS countries  (With specific reference to population ageing, mortality trends, urbanization and migration)
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Dr joe brics draftDemographic transition and post – transition challenges in BRICS countries (With specific reference to population ageing, mortality trends, urbanization and migration)

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Esta apresentação, exibida durante o seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na Agenda do Cairo: balanço e desafios”, aborda os desafios e oportunidades dos países dos BRICS, destacando ...

Esta apresentação, exibida durante o seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na Agenda do Cairo: balanço e desafios”, aborda os desafios e oportunidades dos países dos BRICS, destacando itens como o envelhecimento da população, as taxas de mortalidade, de urbanização e migração. Detalhes em: www.sae.gov.br

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Dr joe brics draftDemographic transition and post – transition challenges in BRICS countries (With specific reference to population ageing, mortality trends, urbanization and migration) Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Partners in PopulationandDevelopment(PPD) Demographic transition and post – transition challenges in BRICS countries (With specific reference to population ageing, mortality trends, urbanization and migration Monday March 3, 2014 (09.00AM- 13.00) (Discussant) Joe Thomas, PhD Executive Director, PPD
  • 2. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Outline • Introduction • Overall demographic profile of BRICS countries • Populationpolicies • Certain common policy and program challenges
  • 3. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Introductory notes • An important initiative. (Health Diplomacy?) • Methods- of discussion • Populationdata in public domain- un even • Delegates presentation structure and analysis also varied
  • 4. Partners in PopulationandDevelopment(PPD)
  • 5. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Birth Rate (BR) and Death rate(DR) • Death rate decreased in India and Brazil • Birth rate decreased in every countryexcept Russia • Russia is the only country where birth and death both rate increased. • Birth rate is still very high in India Brazil and SA 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 India (BR) Brazil(BR) Russia(BR) China(BR) SA (BR) India (DR) Brazil(DR) Russia(DR) China(DR) SA(DR) Birthrate (BR) andDeathrate(DR) from 2000-2012 2012 2000 Birth rate (crudebirth rate):Average annualnumber of births during a year per 1,000 population at midyear Death rate (crudedeath rate):Average annualnumber of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at midyear;
  • 6. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Unmet need, CPR and Adolescent Fertility 6 21 2 14 77 73 56 87 60 72 26 36 9 53 0 20 40 60 80 100 Brazil Russia India China South Africa Unmet need , CPR and Adoloscent fertility rate Unmetneed CPR Adolescent fertility rate • Unmet need is higher and CPR is lower in India and SA. Statistics for unmet need was not available for Russia • Adolescent pregnancy is very high in Brazil and South Africa Unmetneed: Women with an unmet need for family planning are women aged 15 to 49, married or in union, who arefecund and sexually active but arenot using any method of CPR: Contraceptiveprevalence rateis the percentageof women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any formof contraception.; usually measured for married women ages 15-49 Adolescent Fertility rate: Adolescent fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15-19.
  • 7. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Net Migration rate (Differencebetween the number of persons entering and leaving a country during the year per 1,000 persons(based on midyear population). -0,17 1,69 -0,05 -0,33 -6,24 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 BrazilRussiaIndiaChinaSouth Africa Net Migration/1000 pop • Only Russia experience in migration • Outmigration is high is SA • Though the rate shows low in the case of India and China, the actual number of out migration is vast due to their largenumber of population • Gender segregated migration data is not available
  • 8. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Urbanization 0 20 40 60 80 100 Brazil Russia India China South Africa 87% 73.8% 31.3% 50.6% 62% Rateof Urbanization in BRICScountries • All the countries are experiencing rapid urbanization • More than 70% population in Russia and brazil lives in urban areas. • Rapid growth of urbanization is an overall challenge for the countries Urbanization is considered here urban population,( percentage of the total population living in urban areas, asdefined by the country) and the rateof urbanization(theprojected averagerateof change of the size of the urban population over the given period of time.
  • 9. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Gender Inequality index (GII) 0,44 0,31 0,61 0,21 0,46 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 Brazil Russia India China South Africa Gender Inequality Index (GII)• China and Russia performed much better in comparison to the rest in GII index. Here the inequality measured with the combined result of inequality on reproductive health, empowerment and the labour market. To calculate this inequality MMR , Adolescent fertility rate, Female and male population with at least secondary level, Female and male shares for parliamentary seats , Female and male labour force participation rate The index shows the loss in potential human development due to inequality between female and male achievements in these dimensions. It varies between 0, where women and men fare equally, and 1, where either gender fares as poorly as possible in all measured dimensions. The country perform closure to 0, the closure they are in diminishing inequalities
  • 10. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Trend of IMR and MMR 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trend of IMR India Brazil Russia China SA 200 56 34 37 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 India Brazil Russia China SA Status of MMR 2008-2010 2008 2010 IMR: Number of deaths of infants under one year old in a given year per 1,000 live births in the same year MMR: The maternal mortality rate (MMR) is the annual number of female deaths per 100,000 live births from any cause related to or aggravated by pregnancy or its management (excluding accidental or incidental causes). The MMR includes deaths during pregnancy, childbirth, or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration and site of the pregnancy, for a specified year.
  • 11. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Population Policy Respone • India:In 1952 India adopted Population policy for the first time, in 2000 India reviewed the population policy. • China: In 1970 Chinese Government issued population policy, in 1979 the country adopted one child policy and in 2002 the country adopted population policy in the form of population and family planning law, marriagelaw and in 2013 radical revision in family care law. • South Africa:South Africa adopted population policy in 1998 • Brazil:In 2007, the Federal Government launched its “National Family Planning Policy”
  • 12. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) • Monitoring the population dynamics of the BRICS countries. • Monitoring the changing service needs/ profile of the national family planning programs • Shared technical support among the BRICS countries to review their population policy in the post ICPD and MDG framework • Explore the needs and opportunities for the sustainable MC exchange • Potential of BRICS countries to influence the global agenda on RH and population development. Policy and program challenges
  • 13. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) Challenges and opportunities • International obligation of member countries (Signatory to population related global agreements) • Need for specific data/ Gender disaggregateddata, dialogue and in-depth analysis • PostMDG/ ICPD challenges and opportunities, mid- term policy revision !? • Inequity (urban- rural) • Urbanization • Ageing • SRHR needs of adolescents and young people • Migration and Immigration(Un documented migrants- skilled migrants. Gender issues • Changing Family planning needs (women’s fertility- higher/lower- policy) • Families – as a the basic social unit- under duress (Policy response) • Dealing with the challenge of “the ideology of male superiority”
  • 14. Partners in Population and Development (PPD) THANK YOU PPD @20 years PPDs20th anniversary