Demographic Transition and
Post-Transition: Opportunities
and Challenges
Ricardo Paes de Barros
Diana Coutinho
Rosane Mend...
Brazilian demographic transition
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 ...
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20...
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service de...
Demographic bonus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2...
Demographic bonus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2...
Demographic bonus
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2...
Evolution of average schooling by birth cohort:
Brazil
Born in 1980
in Brazil
Born in 1952
in Chile 28 years behind
Birth ...
Ensuring youth full development
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
ThousandsUS$(2005)perworkerpe...
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000
LaborP...
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Extremapobreza(%)
Idade
Extrema pobreza por i...
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Extremapobreza(%)
Idade
Extrema pobreza por i...
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service de...
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service de...
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service de...
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service de...
Public transfers and economic independence at older ages
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 199...
Health transition
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000...
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020...
Population aging
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 19...
Population aging
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 19...
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service de...
Caring for dependent old-age persons
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2...
Challenges to public policy for a older population
1. Increase in life expectancy need to be accompanied by
reduction in m...
Economic development and international migration
In 1900, Brazil has
reached 7.3% of the
population composed
of immigrants...
Region
Immigrants
(millions)
Immigrants over
65years old
(millions)
Immigrants over
65years of age
as a percentage
of the ...
Além da pouca mobilidade de pessoas,
há pouca mobilidade de conhecimento
Quase 13 em cada 1000 residentes na
Austrália est...
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Demographic Transition and Post-Transition: Opportunities and Challengesties and Challenges

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As oportunidades e desafios da transição demográfica são o tema da apresentação divulgada por membros da SAE/PR durante o seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na Agenda do Cairo: balanço e desafios”, realizado nos dias 21 e 22 de fevereiro, em Brasília. Autores: Ricardo Paes de Barros, Diana Coutinho e Rosane Mendonça. Saiba mais: www.sae.gov.br

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Demographic Transition and Post-Transition: Opportunities and Challengesties and Challenges

  1. 1. Demographic Transition and Post-Transition: Opportunities and Challenges Ricardo Paes de Barros Diana Coutinho Rosane Mendonça Mpumalanga, March 2014
  2. 2. Brazilian demographic transition -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 ratesperthousandpersons Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE Crude birth rate Crude death rate Net migration rate Natural growth rate Population growth rate Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V 2014 3% 2% 1% 0% 2%
  3. 3. 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 TotalFertilityRate(birthsperwomen) Actual and Predicted Evolution of Total Fertility Rate : Brazil, 1940-2060 40 years 1/3 6 births 2 births 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE Fertility decline
  4. 4. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. Brazil: Income and Private Consumption, 2008 Labor Income Consumption Economic dependency
  5. 5. Demographic bonus 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 population(million) Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060 Less than 15 or at least 60 years old Between 15 and 59 years old 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
  6. 6. Demographic bonus 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 population(million) Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060 Less than 15 or at least 60 years old Between 15 and 59 years old 65 million 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
  7. 7. Demographic bonus 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 percentageofthepopulation(%) Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060 Between 15 and 59 years old 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE Less than 15 or at least 60 years old 30 p.p.
  8. 8. Evolution of average schooling by birth cohort: Brazil Born in 1980 in Brazil Born in 1952 in Chile 28 years behind Birth year Averageschooling Human capital investment
  9. 9. Ensuring youth full development
  10. 10. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 ThousandsUS$(2005)perworkerperyear The Evolution of the Average Labor Productivity Selected countries: 1950-2011 Japan Korea Argentina Brazil Chile China Source: SAE/PR based on the Penn World Tables. Labor productivity as GDP/worker (Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices). Labor productivity
  11. 11. 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 LaborProductivityin2011 (US$(2005)peryearperworker) Labor Productivity in 1980 (US$ (2005) per year per worker) Ratio between labor productivity in 1980 and 2011 Brazil Korea Source: SAE/PR based on the Penn World Tables. Labor productivity as GDP/worker (Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices). China Labor productivity
  12. 12. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Extremapobreza(%) Idade Extrema pobreza por idade: Brasil, 2009 Média nacional Possibilidades de melhoria Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009 Age Extremepoverty(%) National average Public and intergenerational transfers
  13. 13. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Extremapobreza(%) Idade Extrema pobreza por idade: Brasil, 2009 Média nacional Excluindo transferências públicas Incluindo transferências públicas Possibilidades de melhoria Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009 Age Extremepoverty(%) National average Including public transfers Excluding public transfers Public and intergenerational transfers
  14. 14. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. Ratio of net per capita public transfers (elderly to children) Public and intergenerational transfers
  15. 15. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. Public Transfers as a Percent of Total Consumption Public and intergenerational transfers
  16. 16. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. Brazil: Expenditure per person by age group, 2006 Public and intergenerational transfers
  17. 17. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. Brazil: Income and Private Consumption, 2008 Labor Income Consumption Public transfers and economic independence at older ages
  18. 18. Public transfers and economic independence at older ages 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (%) Anos Evolution of the percentage of older persons in families with per capita income below his/her personal income: Brazil, 1981-2012 Source: SAE/PR based on PNADs (IBGE) from 1981 to 2012. At least 70 years old At least 60 years old
  19. 19. Health transition 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 LifeExpectancyatBirth(years) Actual and Predicted Evolution of Life Expectancy at Birth: Brazil, 1910-2060 2014 1/2 extra year of life per calendar year Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE 40 70
  20. 20. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 percentageofthepopulation(%) Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060 Under 15 years old At least 60 years old Between 15 and 59 years old 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE Less than 15 or at least 60 years old Population aging
  21. 21. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Distribuiçãodapopulação(%) Evolution of the percentage of old-age population: Brazil, 1990-2060 At least 60 years old At least 70 years old Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE 2014 Population aging
  22. 22. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Distribuiçãodapopulação(%) Evolution of the percentage of old-age population: Brazil, 1990-2060 At least 60 years old At least 70 years old Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE 2014 Population aging
  23. 23. Population aging 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 peopleaged65andmoreperhundredchildren Evolution of the number of people aged 65 and above per hundred children under age 15: Brazil, 1900 to 2060 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
  24. 24. Population aging 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 peopleaged65andmoreperhundredchildren Evolution of the number of people aged 65 and above per hundred children under age 15: Brazil, 1900 to 2060 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
  25. 25. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. Number of years for population 65+ to increase from 7% to 14% Speed of the population aging
  26. 26. Caring for dependent old-age persons 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (%) Anos Percentage of old persons living in households without any person younger than 55 years old: Brazil, 1981-2012 Fonte: SAE/PR, com base nas PNADs (IBGE) de 1981 a 2012. At least 60 years old At least 70 years old
  27. 27. Challenges to public policy for a older population 1. Increase in life expectancy need to be accompanied by reduction in morbidity and expansion of the working life cycle. 2. Exponential increase in social security costs requires Brazil to adjust social security rules to the real needs and working potential of the elderly. 3. Adjustment must be fast, since the aging of the population has been very fast and it takes a life time to adjust. 4. Inevitable increase in health expenditures. 5. Increase in demand for long-term care for dependent old persons. Defining the roles for the family and public services.
  28. 28. Economic development and international migration In 1900, Brazil has reached 7.3% of the population composed of immigrants, today it has just 0.3%. International Migration to Brazil Fonte: Censos Demográficos
  29. 29. Region Immigrants (millions) Immigrants over 65years old (millions) Immigrants over 65years of age as a percentage of the immigrant population World 214 24,7 12 Africa 19 0,8 4 Asia 61 6,3 10 Europe 70 9,7 14 North America 50 5,9 12 Latin Amerrica and Caribbean 7 0,9 13 Oceania 6 1,1 18 Brazil 0,6 0,2 36 Age structure of immigrants in Brazil and in the World 5x Latin America Average 10x World Average 50x North America and Oceania Average Fonte: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009) e Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD, 2009). Economic development and international migration
  30. 30. Além da pouca mobilidade de pessoas, há pouca mobilidade de conhecimento Quase 13 em cada 1000 residentes na Austrália estão estudando fora ou são estrangeiros estudando no país. No Chile, o número cai para 0,5; no Brasil, para 0,2.
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