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Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses
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Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses

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Apresentação sobre a dinâmica demográfica brasileira exibida durante a reunião plenária da Comissão Nacional sobre População e Desenvolvimento (CNPD), realizada no dia 20 de fevereiro, em Brasília. …

Apresentação sobre a dinâmica demográfica brasileira exibida durante a reunião plenária da Comissão Nacional sobre População e Desenvolvimento (CNPD), realizada no dia 20 de fevereiro, em Brasília. Autores: Ricardo Paes de Barros, Diana Coutinho e Rosane Mendonça. Leia mais em: www.sae.gov.br

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  • 1. Brazilian Demographic Dynamics and Population Policy Responses Ricardo Paes de Barros Diana Coutinho Rosane Mendonça Nelspruit, March 2014
  • 2. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Population(million) Actual and Expected Evolution of the Brazilian Population from 1872 to 2060 17,3 million 173 million 228 million 100 years Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE 2014 40 years A. Demographic dynamics
  • 3. A. Demographic dynamics -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 ratesperthousandpersons Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE Crude birth rate Crude death rate Natural growth rate Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V 2014
  • 4. A. Demographic dynamics -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 ratesperthousandpersons Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE Crude birth rate Crude death rate Net migration rate Natural growth rate Population growth rate Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V 2014
  • 5. B. Health transition 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 InfantMortaliyRate(‰) LifeExpectancyatBirth(years) Actual and Predicted Evolution of Life Expectancy at Birth and Infat Mortality Rate: Brazil, 1910-2060 Life Expectancy 1/3 22 years 2014 1/2 extra year of life per calendar year Infant Mortality Rate Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE 40 70 48 16
  • 6. Life expectancy in Brazilian Municipalities: 1991 1991- Esperançadevidaaonascer 06/01/14 Source: HDI-M Atlas Realização: 2010- Esperançadevidaaonascer LEGENDA B. Health transition
  • 7. Life expectancy in Brazilian Municipalities: 2010 2010- Esperançadevidaaonascer 06/01/14 Source: HDI-M Atlas Realização: 2010- Esperançadevidaaonascer LEGENDA B. Health transition
  • 8. B. Health transition
  • 9. Infant mortality rate in Brazilian Municipalities Source: HDI-M Atlas B. Health transition 2010- Mortalidadeatéumanodeidade LEGENDA Impressão do Mapa | Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil 2013 Mapa - Mortalidadeatéumanodeidade 06/01/14 LEGENDA 1991 2010 LEGENDA
  • 10. B. Health transition
  • 11. 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 TotalFertilityRate(birthsperwomen) Actual and Predicted Evolution of Total Fertility Rate : Brazil, 1940-2060 40 years 1/3 6 births 2 births 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE C. Fertility decline
  • 12. C. Fertility decline Source: HDI-M Atlas Total fertility rate in Brazilian Municipalities 1991 2010
  • 13. 0,00 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,10 0,12 0,14 0,16 0,18 0,20 0,22 0,24 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Fertilityrate(birthperwomen) Evolution of the Brazilian age-specific fertility rates: 1980-2030 15 to 19 years old 20 to 29 years old 30 to 39 years old 40 to 49 years old 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE C. Fertility decline
  • 14. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 percenatgeofbirths Evolution of births according the the age of the mother: Brazil, 1980-2030 30 to 39 years old 20 to 29 years old 40 to 49 years old 15 to 19 years old 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE C. Fertility decline
  • 15. 1. Improvements in family living conditions, in particular, in the educational achievement of women. 2. Improvements in the status of women, in particular those related to the increase in female labor force participation and labor income. 3. Access to information and orientation on contraceptive methods. 4. Easy and free access to a variety of contraceptive methods. 5. Freedom to choose the contraceptive methods of ones own choice. Determinants of the Decline in Fertility Rates C. Fertility decline
  • 16. C.1. Improvements in living conditions
  • 17. C.1. Improvements in living conditions
  • 18. 0,50 0,52 0,54 0,56 0,58 0,60 0,62 0,64 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 GiniIndex Evolution of income inequality Brazil 1976-2011 Source: SAE/PR based on the PNADs from 1976 to 2011. C.1. Improvements in living conditions
  • 19. C.1. Improvements in living conditions
  • 20. 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 HDI Percentage of municipalities and countries Distributionof Brazilian municipalities and countries of the World according to HDI, 2010 Source: SAE/PR, based on Demographic Census 2000 and 2010 and HDI as calculated by the UNDP, Human Development Report Brazil - 2010 World- 2010 Uganda Netherlands 85% C.1. Improvements in living conditions
  • 21. Indicator Public School AIDS or other sexually transmitted diseases 84 Pregnancy prevention methods 82 Free acess of condoms and other options for pregnacy prevention 64 Percentage of students in the 8th grade who have received information in school regarding: Access to sexual and reproductive information: Brazil - 2009 Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisa, Coordenação de População e Indicadores Sociais, Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar 2009. C.3. Access to information on conceptive methods
  • 22. C.4. Easy and free access to contraceptives methods and preservatives Type Quantity (million) 30,7 3,6 7,4 3,6 1,0 850 25 0,063 0,773 Male sterilization (Vasectomy) 0,039 Female sterilization (Tubal Ligation) 0,065 Intra Uterine Device (IUD) Free access to contraceptives methods and preservatives Combined pill (Ethinylestradiol and Levonorgestrel) Source: Helvécio M . M agalhães Júnior (M inistry of Health), 2014 Minipill (Norethisterone) Emergency oral contraception (Levonorgestrel) Monthly injection (Estradiol Valerate and Norethisterone Enanthate) Quarterly injection (Valerate Medroxyprogesterone) Diaphragm Female preservative (Condoms) Male preservative (Condoms)
  • 23. C.5. Freedom to choose the preferred contraceptive method LEI Nº 9.263, DE 12 DE JANEIRO DE 1996. Art. 2º:Para fins desta Lei, entende-se planejamento familiar como o conjunto de ações de regulação da fecundidade que garanta direitos iguais de constituição, limitação ou aumento da prole pela mulher, pelo homem ou pelo casal. Parágrafo único: É proibida a utilização das ações a que se refere o caput para qualquer tipo de controle demográfico Art. 5º: É dever do Estado, através do Sistema Único de Saúde, em associação, no que couber, às instâncias componentes do sistema educacional, promover condições e recursos informativos, educacionais, técnicos e científicos que assegurem o livre exercício do planejamento familiar. Art. 9º: Para o exercício do direito ao planejamento familiar, serão oferecidos todos os métodos e técnicas de concepção e contracepção cientificamente aceitos e que não coloquem em risco a vida e a saúde das pessoas, garantida a liberdade de opção.
  • 24. C.5. Freedom to choose the preferred contraceptive method Family Planning Law Law No. 9263, January 12th, 1996 Art. 2º: ..... family planning is understood as the complete set of actions aimed at regulating fertility ...... Single paragraph: It is forbidden the use of any family plan action for any type of demographic control. Art. 5º: It is a State obligation ……. to ensure all the conditions and resources ….. necessary for the free exercise of family planning. Art. 9º: … It will be offered all contraceptive methods and techniques scientifically accepted that do not threat health, ensuring freedom of choice.
  • 25. BC. Health transition and fertility decline Source: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 3.
  • 26. D. Demographic bonus 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 population(million) Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060 Less than 15 or at least 60 years old Between 15 and 59 years old 65 million 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
  • 27. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 percentageofthepopulation(%) Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060 Less than 15 or at least 60 years old Between 15 and 59 years old 30 p.p. 2014 Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE D. Demographic bonus

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