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Experimental Probability

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Experimental Probability

1. 1. EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY
2. 2. Definition <ul><li>Probability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The measure of the likelihood/chance that an event will happen.  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the number of possible outcomes.   </li></ul></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin
3. 3. Formula <ul><li>P (event) =  number of favorable outcomes                      number of possible outcomes </li></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin
4. 4. Experiment 1 <ul><li>You have a six-sided die </li></ul><ul><li>What are the number of possible outcomes? (How many numbers are on the die?) </li></ul><ul><li>6 </li></ul><ul><li>That’s the bottom number </li></ul><ul><li>What is the probability that you will throw a 1? </li></ul><ul><li>There is only 1 </li></ul><ul><li>That’s the top number </li></ul><ul><li>P(1)=1/6 </li></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin
5. 5. Experiment 1 <ul><li>What is the probability you will throw a 2? </li></ul><ul><li>P(2)=1/6 </li></ul><ul><li>What is the probability you will throw an even number? </li></ul><ul><li>P(even)=3/6 </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce it to: </li></ul><ul><li>P(even)= 1/2 </li></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin
6. 6. Experiment 1 <ul><li>What is the probability you will throw a 2 or a 5? </li></ul><ul><li>P(2or5)= 2/6 </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce it to: </li></ul><ul><li>P(2or5)= 1/3 </li></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin
7. 7. Experiment 2 <ul><li>You have a standard deck of cards </li></ul><ul><li>What are the number of possible outcomes? </li></ul><ul><li>52 </li></ul><ul><li>That’s the bottom number </li></ul><ul><li>What is the probability that you will draw a black card? </li></ul><ul><li>26 </li></ul><ul><li>P(black card)= 26/52 </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce it: </li></ul><ul><li>P(black card)= 1/2 </li></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin
8. 8. Experiment 2 <ul><li>What is the probability that you will draw a heart? </li></ul><ul><li>P(heart)= 13/52 </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce it: </li></ul><ul><li>P(heart)= ¼ </li></ul><ul><li>What is the probability that you will draw a 4? </li></ul><ul><li>P(4)= 4/52 </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce it: </li></ul><ul><li>P(4)= 1/13 </li></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin
9. 9. Experiment 2 <ul><li>What is the probability that you will not draw a heart? </li></ul><ul><li>13(3)/52 => P(no heart)=39/52 </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce it: </li></ul><ul><li>P(no heart)= ¾ </li></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin
10. 10. Experiment 3 <ul><li>Nike is having a tennis shoe giveaway. If you are the first person chosen to win one of the above pair of shoes, what is the probability of winning each type? </li></ul><ul><li>P(A) = 5/20 = ? </li></ul><ul><li>P(B) = 8/20 = ? </li></ul><ul><li>P(C) = 7/20 = ? </li></ul>06/04/09 PH 01-07 Bitsy Griffin A B C 5 8 7
11. 11. Review <ul><li>Steps? </li></ul><ul><li>HW – No Simulations – Only Probability </li></ul>
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