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Presentation food security and threat posed by climate change- Saadullah Ayaz

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Saadullah Ayaz

Saadullah Ayaz

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  • 1. Food Security and Present Threat Posed by Climate Change Saadullah Ayaz IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 2. Development Concerns of Pakistan1. Nearly one-quarter of the population in Pakistan is classified as poor (World Resource Institute 2007) - Human Development Index is 0.539 - 74 percent population living under $2 a day - GDP~ 125th in World2. Agriculture contributes to 24 percent of the GDP and employs 46% population~ dependent on water3. Low forest cover (4.5%)~ deforestation= 0.2- 0.4 % per annum4. Pakistan among the 17 countries facing water shortages and is among the 36 countries having serious threat of food crisis (WB 2009) IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 3. Climate Change Impacts on Pakistan1. 12th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2007)2. Losing at least 5% of GDP each year (may be upto 20%)3. Emission share~ 0.43% of world’s total (135th ranking)4. Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0° (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007) C5. Decrease in precipitation=10 to 15% (last 40 years) (IPCC 2007)6. Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, in decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008) IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 4. Food Security and Pakistan1. Pakistan, ranked 11th on the index, is at “extreme risk” (Food Security Risk Index, UN 2009)2. About one-third of the households in Pakistan are living below the ‘food poverty line’ (not meeting their nutritional requirements) (Mazhar Arif 2007)3. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74 (62%) are food deficit in terms of net availability (SDPI 2003)4. Droughts, floods, cyclones and pests (all related to CC) can quickly wipe out large quantities of food as it grows or is stored- further adding to food insecurity5. Agriculture production in Pak rises by less than 1% annually (FAO 2006) IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 5. Climate Change Impacts in relation to Agriculture and Food Security1. Climate Change will increase variability in normal monsoon patterns (GCISC 2008)2. More rapid recession of Himalayan- Karakoram Glaciers than predicated, threatening Indus River System Flows (GCISC 2008).3. Likelihood of glaciers disappearing by the year 2035 is very high (international Commission of Snow and Water, 1999)4. Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline (threats to irrigated agriculture)5. Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions resulting in food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity (GCISC 2008)6. Not much data/ research information available for Pakistan IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 6. Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern PakistanTemperature Growing Season Length (Days)(˚C Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan increase Mountainous Sub-Mountainous Plains Plainsover Region Region (Semi-arid) (Arid)baseline) (Humid) (Sub-humid)Baseline 246 161 146 137 1 232 155 140 132 2 221 149 135 127 3 211 144 130 123 4 202 138 125 118 5 194 133 121 113Finding: Decreasing Trend in number of days in Growing season (Source: GCISC) IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 7. Change in Wheat Yield in Different Agro-climaticZones of Pakistan with variation in Temperature 6500 Temperature Effect 5500Wheat Yield (kg/ha) 4500 3500 2500 1500 base 1 2 3 4 5 o Temperature increase ( C) Source: GCISC IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 8. Effects Of Climate Events On Wheat Production In Rain-fed Areas of PakistanCropping Yield Economic CostYear (kg/ ha) % change Climate Events (Rs. Mill)1999-2000 1319 -25 Drought Year 2685.92000-01 534 -70 Drought + 3026.1 Terminal heat stress2001-02 717 -59 Drought + 3266.5 Terminal heat stress2002-03 1310 -25 Drought Year 2281.12003-04 1321 -25 Terminal heat stress 2814.02004-05 1730 -1 169.02005-06 1354 -23 Terminal heat stress 3320.02006-07 1755 = Bumper Year 0.0 Source: Aslam and Asim, 2008 IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 9. Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios % Share in % Change in yield in 2080 Baseline Yield Region National Scenario Scenario (kg per ha) Production A2 B2(NorthernMountainous) 2 2658 +50 +40(Northern Sub-mountainous) 9 3933 -11 -11(Southern Semiarid Plain) 42 4306 -8 -8(Southern AridPlain) 47 4490 -5 -6Total (Pakistan) 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4 Source: GCISC 2008 IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 10. Expected Economic Losses in Wheat by 2080 due to CC and related factors % share in Change Quantity Economic Production Loss LossRegions national in yield distribution production (%) (000 t) (Rs. Mill.)Northern 465.9 2 +4 186.4 4.43MountainsNorthernSub- 2096.5 9 -11 -230.6 -5.48mountainousSouthernSemi Arid 9783.8 42 -8 -782.7 -18.59PlainsSouthern 10948.5 47 -6 -656.9 -15.60Arid PlainsTotal 23294.7 -1483.9 -35.24 Source: NARC (2008) IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 11. Salient findings1. Expected temperature increase in Pakistan as whole higher than the expected global average increase.2. Projected temperature increase in the north is somewhat higher than in the south Pakistan.3. Projected temperature increase in winter is more than that in summer.4. As yet it is not possible to get a clear picture for precipitation change, due to large model uncertainties.5. The yields of both wheat and rice will decrease everywhere except in the Northern Mountainous areas where wheat yield will increase. IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 12. Recommendations1. Initiate adaptation measures/ access to international funds2. Increase water use efficiency, enhance water reservoir capacity3. Improved governance structure4. Strengthening of Ministry of Environment, ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock5. Strengthen research base and agricultural extension services6. Invest in dry- land, arid agriculture7. Control exponential population growth IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 13. Recommendations (contd…)8. Comprehensive ‘Food Security Strategy’- Pro- Poor concerns integrated9. Improve access to food, through the development of social protection schemes such as minimum wage, unemployment benefits, “food-for-work” programmes, basic health care and agricultural insurance10. Investments in sustainable agriculture and small scale farmers will be extremely important,11. Drought resistant varieties, alternate farming practices, reduce cultivation of water intensive crops IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
  • 14. ThanksIUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources