Climate change and CDM Saadullah Ayaz

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Climate change and CDM Saadullah Ayaz

  1. 1. Climate Change, Climate Change MitigationOpportunities for Developing Countries Saadullah Ayaz Climate Change Coordinator IUCN Pakistan IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  2. 2. ABOUT IUCNIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature is the world’s oldest andlargest global environmental network- a democratic membership union with morethan 1,000 government and NGO member organizations, and almost 11,000volunteer scientists in more than 160 countries worldwide.IUCN helps the world find pragmatic solutions to our most pressing environmentand development challenges. It supports scientific research, manages field projectsall over the world and brings governments, non-government organizations, UnitedNations agencies, companies and local communities together to develop andimplement policy, laws and best practice.IUCN has a status of an ‘Observer’ in UN General AssemblyIUCN’s Vision and MissionIUCN’s vision is a just world that values and conserves nature. IUCN’s mission is toinfluence, encourage and assist societies throughout the world to conserve theintegrity and diversity of nature and to ensure that any use of natural resources isequitable and ecologically sustainable. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  3. 3. What does IUCN do?Knowledge: IUCN develops and supports cutting edge conservation science, particularly in species, ecosystems, biodiversity, and the impact these have on human livelihoods.Action: IUCN runs thousands of field projects around the world to better manage natural environments.Influence: IUCN supports governments, NGOs, international conventions, UN organizations, companies and communities to develop laws, policy and best-practice.Empowerment: IUCN helps implement laws, policy and best-practice by mobilizing organizations, providing resources, training people and monitoring results. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  4. 4. Climate Change/ Global Warming: INTRODUCTIONIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  5. 5. DEFINING THE CLIMATE CHANGEClimate Change is a significant statistical variation of the averagestate or climate variabilities which occur during a long period(at least some decades or 30 years).In other words, climate change represents a trend in the behaviourof a climate variable, for example, a trend towards an increase inaverage temperature. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  6. 6. CLIMATE CHANGE PHENOMENONThe Greenhouse EffectSome gases naturally exist in the atmosphere, the so calledGreenhouse Gases (GHGs) that form a blanket surrounding the earthand keeps the earth warmer. This is called Greenhouse Effect.The Enhanced Greenhouse EffectHuman activities (fossil fuel burning, depletion of sinks like forestsetc.) has been increasing the concentration of GHGs in theatmosphere and is leading to rise in temperatures. This is calledEnhanced Greenhouse Effect.Global Warming/Climate ChangeRise in temperatures of earth and other associated climatic changesas caused by the enhanced Greenhouse Effect is called “GlobalWarming” and in broader term “Climate Change”. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  7. 7. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  8. 8. MAJOR GREENHOUSE GASES Name Formula GWP (CO2 eq.)1. Carbon- dioxide (CO2) 12. Methane (CH4) 213. Nitrous oxide (N2O) 3105. Per- fluorocarbons (PFCs) 92,004. Hydro- fluorocarbons (HFCs) 11,7006. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900GWP= Global Warming Potential IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  9. 9. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEEXTREME WEATHER EVENTS (ABRUPT SWINGS).- More frequent and powerful cyclones and hurricanes,- More frequent and intense floods and heavy, snowfalls,- Severe and longer drought periods,- Unexpected climatic events,- Changes in Weather Patterns,- Short winters, earlier spring and longer summers. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  10. 10. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (Contd…)WATER RESOURCES- Decrease in fresh water supply,- Deteriorated water quality due to salt water intrusion in aquifers,- Melting northern glaciers and polar ice,- Rising sea levels due to melting of polar ice caps,- Increased water loss from reservoirs due to dryness, IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  11. 11. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (Contd…)ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE- Impacts on production of ecosystems,- Shrinking habitats (forests and wetlands),- Desertification,- Damage to aquatic ecosystems (coral reefs, fisheries),- Shifts in the natural world (climate change impacts at least 420 physical and biological processes), - Upward migration of plant and animal species, - Disappearance of some plant and animal species in certain areas, - Impact on breeding behavior, - Change in growing season of plants and agriculture crops, - Species extinction (some 25% of mammals and 12% of birds). IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  12. 12. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (Contd…)ECONOMIC IMPACTS- Decrease in production value of ecosystems, agricultures, forests and fisheries etc.- Increased economic damage due to climatic catastrophes like floods and droughts etc.- Economic impacts due to loss of human, livestock, fisheries and poultry health.HEALTH IMPACTS- Heat-related illnesses (heat stroke and dehydration).- Respiratory and cardiovascular illness.- Physical and mental stress.- Spread of infections.- Spread of epidemics and vector borne diseases (diarrhea, malaria).- Contamination of drinking water and food IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  13. 13. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (Contd…)TOURISM- Impacts on protected areas.- Depleted winter resorts and ski resorts.- Impacts water sports (boating and canoeing) due to shrinkage of water bodies.- Impacts on trekking, mountaineering etc due to degraded ecosystems.AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY- Decrease in agriculture production due to change in temperature water scarcity.- Decrease in forest production due to water availability- Increased risks of pest and pathogens.- Increase in occurrence and distribution of forest fires.- Change in vegetation zones due to change in weather (upwards shifting of forest types). IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  14. 14. Can this be denied…IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  15. 15. Great Feminine in Africa (Droughts)IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  16. 16. Great Feminine in Africa (Droughts)IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  17. 17. Food Security (Droughts)IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  18. 18. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  19. 19. Hurricane in FloridaIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  20. 20. Floods and DroughtsIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  21. 21. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  22. 22. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  23. 23. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  24. 24. CLIMATE CHANGE FACTS FOR PAKISTAN• 16th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2010)• Losing at least 19% of GDP each year (Yale University, 2005)• Emission share~ 0.8% of world’s total, (135th ranking)• Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0°C (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007)• Temperature may further increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (GCISC 2009)• Decrease in precipitation=10 to 15% (last 40 years) (IPCC 2007)• Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, in decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008) IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  25. 25. CC IMPACTS ON PAKISTAN (Contd…)Decline in irrigated wheat yield in semi-arid areas of Pakistan isexpected to be in the range of 9 to 30% for temperature increases of 1to 4 0C.About 80% of the nations food and fibber needs are met from irrigatedagriculture, with canal irrigation network mainly dependent on glaciersof the Hindukush and Himalayas which are believed to be recedingover the last few decades,These impacts are changing the hydrology of the upper Indus Basin,which has serious consequences on people living in the entire riverbasin and will result in water shortages for millions of people. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  26. 26. CC IMPACTS ON PAKISTAN (Contd…)Climate change has adverse impacts on forest resources andnatural ecosystems of Pakistan. Forest lands in northern mountainareas of Pakistan would shift from one biome to another, (up-wards) which would also result in an increase in the total potentialconiferous forest area and decrease the productivity of thisprecious resource.Many other that we don’t even know… IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  27. 27. CHANGES IN NATURAL DRIVERS OF CCCO2 concentrations have increased from 280 ppm (since 1750) to368 ppm in 2000 (31.4%) to 379 in 2005 (35.4% rise)CH4 concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value ofabout 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in early 1990s (142% rise) and is 1774ppb in 2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%N2O concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value ofabout 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate hasbeen approximately constant since 1980s. More than a third of allN2O emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due toagriculture IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  28. 28. IS IT REALLY HAPPENING?? Some Glimpses…IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  29. 29. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  30. 30. 1991 2006 Upsala Glacier in ArgentinaIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  31. 31. 1921 2004 Snow Mass in MontanaIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  32. 32. 1859 2001 Rhone Glacier in SwitzerlandIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  33. 33. 1999 2004 Shoreline in North Carolina, USAIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  34. 34. 1991 2006 Sea Shore, Tuvalu in PacificIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  35. 35. 1885 2002 Mount Hood in Oregon, USAIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  36. 36. 1987 2004 Mount Kilimanjaru, TanzaniaIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  37. 37. 1989 2007 Tourists Resort in CarribeanIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  38. 38. 2003 2006 White Spruce Trees in Alaska, USAIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  39. 39. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  40. 40. EXTREME EVENTSSevere climatic events in Pakistan. flooding, snow on MargallahThe Great Flood of 1993 occurred in the American Midwest, alongthe Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. Damages ~ US$ 20 billion1998 massive flooding parts of the Yangtze River in China.Damages US$ 24 billion.2003 Southern European heat wave combined with drought tocreate a crop shortfall. Killing~ 35,000 people.The 2007 South Asian floods (India, Nepal, Bhutan, andBangladesh) killing 2,000.HURRICANESHurricane Katrina, Rita, Charley, Jeanne, Frances in USA. ~ killingthousands and economic losses worth billions USD.Billion Dollar Climatic Disasters: A Chronology of U.S. Events http://www.livescience.com/environment/disaster_chronology_1980_2004.html IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  41. 41. Scientific Evidence of Climate Change/Global Warming Global ConcernsIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  42. 42. THE GLOBAL CONCERNSClimate change: the greatest threat of the 21st Century (UNDPHuman Development Report 2007/2008).UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has warned that climatechange poses as much of a danger to the world as war. (In his firstaddress).Security Council holds first-ever debate on impact of climatechange (5663rd Meeting April 2007 ). called for the United Nationsto urgently consider convening a global summit. “our collectivesecurity in a fragile and increasingly interdependent world”. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  43. 43. IPCC Climate Change Report Shock! Published on October 16th 2007IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  44. 44. FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF IPCCThe 4th Assessment Report of Inter- Governmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) published in 2007 indicates that: - Global temperature rises of 2 – 4.5 0C are almost inevitable due to increased concentration of green house gases as caused by human activities (fossil fuel use, land use changes etc.). - The above global warming (or in broader term Climate Change) is expected to have serious consequences for: Agricultural production Biodiversity Heath Sea Level rise - Poor will be most affected by the Climate Change. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  45. 45. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK (GEO- 4)GEO- 4 is the most comprehensive UN document published in2007, indicated that:- 11 of the last 12 years (1996- 2006) are the warmest years since 1850.- Average temperature have increased 0.74 0C during last centaury.- Impacts include: shrinking glaciers- Thawing permafrost earlier breakup of river ice,.- Lengthening of growing season,- Changes in precipitation patterns,- Increase in frequency and intensity of heat waves,- Storms, floods and droughts. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  46. 46. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT OF UNDP 2007/2008Current concentration have reached 380 ppm of CO2e, Exceedingthe natural range of the last 650,000 years.In the course of 21st century average global temperature couldincrease by more than 5oC. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  47. 47. ECONOMICS CLIMATE CHANGE Sterns Review. Sir Nicholas Stern- 2006Estimates that this would mean cutting total greenhouse-gasemissions to three quarters of 2007 levels. The cost of thesecuts would be in the range -1.0 to +3.5% of GDPThe GDP loss due to climate change would be between 23-41 % (average of global GDP)The costs of stabilizing the climate are significant butmanageable; delay would be dangerous and much morecostlyThe cost of in- action will be more that action IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  48. 48. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATONMitigation of global warming involves taking actionsaimed at reducing the extent of global warming (to dowhat can be done to stop)/ through measures to avoidor reduce emissions from sourcesAdaptation to global warming involves taking action tominimize the effects of global warmingExamples include; integrated water management,community resilience to disasters etc. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  49. 49. MITIGATION MECHANISMS- THE KYOTO PROTOCOL Adopted in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The Kyoto Protocol: Aims to reduce GHG emissions by 2012 and distinguish two types of countries: - Annex-I countries: With binding emission targets (41 industrialised countries): - Non-Annex I countries: With voluntary participation (151 developing countries):IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  50. 50. THE KYOTO PROTOCOL MITIGATION OPTIONS- Source oriented measures Energy conservation and efficiency improvement Fossils fuel switching Renewable energy- Sink enhancement measures Capture and disposal of CO2 (under discussion) Enhancement of forest sinks (limited options) IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  51. 51. MECHANISMS UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL The Kyoto Protocol introduces three market based flexible mechanisms for the emissions reduction: - Joint Implementation (JI), - Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ), and - Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  52. 52. CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM)CDM is a market based instrument under the Kyoto Protocol ofUNFCCC: Assists developing countries in sustainable development while at the same time contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention. Developed countries to support project activities that reduce GHG emissions in the developing countries in return for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs)/ Carbon Credits. The CERs generated by such project activities can be used by developed countries as credits to meet their emissions targets under the Protocol. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  53. 53. CONCEPT OF CER/ CARBON CREDITS Developing Country (host) reduction reduction GHG Sold to CERs Developed country ($) GHG EmissionBaseline Scenario CDM Project IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  54. 54. AREAS ADDRESSED BY KYOTO PROTOCOL The KPs emissions targets cover the six main GHGs: Name Formula GWP (CO2 eq.) 1. Carbon- dioxide (CO2) 1 2. Methane (CH4) 21 3. Nitrous oxide (N2O) 310 5. Per- fluorocarbons (PFCs) 92,00 4. Hydro- fluorocarbons (HFCs) 11,700 6. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900Sinks (carbon sequestration) IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  55. 55. BENEFITS FROM CDM (CARBON FINANCE) (An Example) Benefits to Host country CDM Project Additional(e.g., alternate energy Energy production) Production Direct Foreign Investment & Revenue Certified Carbon Credits Emission (Developed Plus other Benefits country Buyer) Reductions (Jobs, Clean Env. Tech. Transfer) IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  56. 56. CDM INCENTIVE FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIESDeveloped countries have been subjected to legallybinding emission targets…..2008/12.Due to un-localized nature of CO2…it does not matter forenvironment where reduction occurs.Costs of abatement or reduction of emissions : Developed Countries : U$ 50-100/ton Developing Countries : U$ 1-10/tonReductions of GHG is much cheaper in developingcountries. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  57. 57. CDM INCENTIVES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIESCapitalize an “unvalued” commodity…… CER“Additional” financing for local Sustainable Developmentpriorities and as such has potential of “Catalyzing” largeForeign Direct Investment (FDI) flowsInstrument for “appropriate” Tech. TransferLinkage with local environmental issues – (air pollutionetc.)Financial viability ~ Carbon financing can increaseproject Internal Rate Returns (IRRs) between 0.5 to 50%(WB) IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  58. 58. TYPE OF CDM PROJECTSUnilateral, bilateral and multilateral CDM projects allowed in: Energy - renewable/alternate energy, - energy efficiency/conservation and cogeneration Waste Management - landfill gas capture - recycling Transportation - alternative fuel vehicles - mass transit systems, cleaner engines, CNG Industrial processes (sugar, cement, fertilizer, textile) Land, Land use and Forestry (A/F) Agricultural and livestock practices IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  59. 59. CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVESThe Country re-affirmed its commitment to meeting the objectivesof the Rio Convention at the World Summit on SustainableDevelopment (WSSD) held in Johannesburg in 2002.Pakistan also carried out a comprehensive study for assessing theimpact of climate change in Pakistan through UNEP/Ministry ofEnvironment in 1998.Pakistan signed the UNFCCC as Non Annex- I Party in June 1994and it became effective for Pakistan, with effect from 30th August1994.Pakistan has undertaken a comprehensive inventory of GHGemission sources and sinks, as well as prioritized feasiblemitigating options and formulated Least Cost Greenhouse GasAbatement Strategy (ALGAS) under the GEF/UNDP Asiacompleted in 1997. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  60. 60. PAKISTAN STATUS (Contd…)Pakistan has submitted the Initial National Communication toUNFCCC in which national GHG inventory was updated andstrategy for addressing climate change concerns were developed.Pakistan initiated the process of formulation of the Second NationalCommunication on climate change and has requested GEF for theprovision of necessary resources.A high level National Committee on Climate Change, chaired by thePrime Minister of Pakistan has been formed to review policies andmonitor progress on climate change initiatives in the country.Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) has beenestablished for conducting research on impacts and adaptation toclimate change in the country. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  61. 61. PAKISTAN STATUS (Contd…)Pakistan adopted Kyoto Protocol in 1997 acceded to it in January2005.Pakistan established a Designated National Authority for CDM inPakistan in 2005.A Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Cell was established inAug. 2005.Pakistan National Operational Strategy for CDM has been approvedin February 2006.Pakistan granted Host Country Approval to Twenty Three (23) CDMProjects. Four of them got registered with CDM Executive Board.(GHG mitigation= 2.34 million tones of CO2 eqv./ yr) IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  62. 62. PAKISTAN STATUS (Contd…)The CDM Cell in the Ministry of Environment has further beenstrengthened under a Public Sector Development Programme witha total cost of Rs. 38.93 million for a period of 3 year (June 2006 toJune 2009).The Ministry of Environment has established a Climate ChangeUnit in 2007.Various capacity building workshops and seminars have beenconducted by the Ministry of Environment and other nationalorganizations. IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  63. 63. MUST WATCH….IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  64. 64. APPRECIATING THE WORK Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al- Gore Share the Nobel Peace Prize- 2007IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  65. 65. ONLINE RESOURCES Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/ Official CDM official Website: www.cdm.unfccc.int CDM Pakistan official Website: http://cdmpakistan.gov.pkIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature
  66. 66. CONTACT US Saadullah Ayaz IUCN Pakistan Islamabad Programme Office H. No: 21, Street 88, G-6/3 Islamabad saad.ayaz@gmail.comIUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature

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