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The Irish Economy: October 2009
 

The Irish Economy: October 2009

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    The Irish Economy: October 2009 The Irish Economy: October 2009 Presentation Transcript

    • Snapshot of the Irish Economy October 2009
    • The Sesame Street Introduction
      • Today’s presentation is brought to you with the letters Y, C, I, G, X and M, some numbers and lots of pictures!
      • Y = C + I + G + (X – M)
    • Then and Now
      • Standardised Unemployment Rate (September): 1984: 15.8% 2009: 12.9%
      • CPI Annual Inflation Rate (September): 1984: + 5.9% 2009: – 6.5%
      • Interest Rate (September): 1984: 13.00% (Central Bank Rediscount Rate) 2009: 1.00% (ECB Main Refinancing Rate)
      • Exchequer Deficit (%GDP):
      • 1984: 10.50% 2009: 10.75%
    • Where Next?
      • Davy Forecasts (Rossa White)
      % Change in Volume GDP Component 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Consumer Spending -1.0 -7.0 1.5 3.8 Investment -15.5 -27.0 -11.5 2.8 Government Spending 2.6 -1.0 -3.0 -1.5 Exports -1.0 -2.0 3.5 6.0 Imports -2.1 -7.5 1.4 4.9 GDP -3.0 -6.3 1.2 4.1 GNP -2.8 -9.6 0.5 3.9
    • ESRI Forecasts for 2010
      • Quarterly Economic Forecasts
      Real Annual Growth % GDP Component Spring 2009 Summer 2009 Autumn 2009 Consumer Spending -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 Investment -11.6 -17.2 -15.5 Government Spending -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 Exports -5.2 -1.4 1.1 Imports -1.1 -4.8 -1.2 GDP -1.2 -2.3 -1.1 GNP -1.4 -2.3 -1.7
    •  
    • Retail Sales Index (All Businesses)
    •  
    • Earnings
    • Savings Source: Central Bank
    • Borrowings Source: Central Bank
    • Unemployment Rates in Ireland
    • Inflation in Ireland
    • Investment
    • Investment
    • Government Balance
    • The Public Finances
    • The God That Failed
    • Tax Revenue (€000s) 2007 2008 2009 E Value Added Tax Income Tax Excise Stamps Corporation Tax Capital Gains Tax Customs Training & Employment Levy Unallocated 14,496,588 13,572,410 5,837,878 3,185,602 6,390,625 3,105,495 265,904 2,501 0 13,429,602 13,176,857 5,443,338 1,650,792 5,065,894 1,430,080 248,001 1,032 0 11,420,000 12,475,000 4,634,000 980,000 3,740,000 625,000 230,000 1,000 0 Total 47,249,352 40,777,196 34,400,000
    • Tax Revenue for Period Jan – Sept 2009, €000 Jan-Sept 2008 Jan-Sept 2009 Value Added Tax Income Tax Excise Stamps Corporation Tax Capital Gains Tax Customs Training & Employment Levy Unallocated 10,998,485 8,690,515 4,150,996 1,358,084 2,121,951 623,926 194,303 692 30,034 8,657,291 7,873,515 3,312,225 679,587 2,601,266 219,482 151,125 988 16,711 Total 28,478,147 23,705,608
    • Expenditure (€000s) Vote or Group of Votes 2007 2008 2009E Health & Children 12,448,835 13,745,317 13,426,037 Social & Family Affairs 8,180,934 9,399,098 10,915,679 Education & Science 8,443,974 9,031,516 8,900,030 Other 15,534,992 17,136,863 14,162,658 Total 44,608,735 49,312,794 47,404,404
    • National Debt
    • Balance of Trade
    •  
    • Balance of Payments