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Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
Practice Day Presentation 2010
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Practice Day Presentation 2010

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  • 1. Turning the Corner? THE IRISH ECONOMY IN 2010 Seamus Coffey March 2010
  • 2. Turning the corner?
  • 3. Components of GDP Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Consumption -2.1% -6.0% +0.9% -0.7% Investment -22.0% -14.4% +0.5% -11.0% Government +0.5% +0.1% -1.5% -0.9% Exports -1.4% -0.8% +0.1% -0.6% Imports -5.1% -3.2% +0.1% -4.7%
  • 4. Economic Activity by Sector 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 Other Services (including rent) -1.3% -1.0% -0.9% -0.2% Industry & Utilities -12.9% +8.7% -0.9% +3.0% Building & Construction -10.4% -16.0% -7.6% -11.2% Public Administration & Defence -0.3% -1.4% -2.0% -1.3% Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries -10.7% +13.7% -0.2% -4.1% Transport and Communications -2.7% -4.4% -0.4% -2.0%
  • 5.  
  • 6.  
  • 7.  
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10. Commodity Value of Exports, €millions % of Exports Change on 2008 Food and live animals 5,695.1 7.4% -12.9% Beverages and tobacco 981.4 1.3% -14.6% Crude materials (inedible) except fuels 833.7 1.1% -32.8% Mineral fuels 552 0.7% -30.7% Animal and vegetable oils 17.7 0.0% -55.6% Chemicals & related products 44,388.8 57.3% +8.4% Manufactured goods 1,144.2 1.5% -26.8% Machinery & transport equipment 12,530.9 16.2% -25.2% Miscellaneous manufactured goods 8,374.2 10.8% +3.3% Other and unclassified 3,015.1 3.9% +20.4% Total 77,533.0 100.0% -2.6%
  • 11.  
  • 12. Country Jan-Nov 2008 Jan-Nov 2009 % Change % Exports USA 15,344.8 16,653.7 +8.5% 21.5% Belgium 11,350.4 13,859.1 +22.1% 17.9% Great Britain 13,108.4 11,233.4 -14.3% 14.5% Germany 5,565.6 4,388.2 -21.2% 5.7% France 4,557.1 4,228.5 -7.2% 5.5% Spain 3,284.7 3,207.1 -2.4% 4.1% Netherlands 2,773.6 2,590.9 -6.6% 3.3% Italy 2,819.0 2,586.7 -8.2% 3.3% Switzerland 2,378.1 2,261.7 -4.9% 2.9% China 2,198.5 2,175.9 -1.0% 2.8% Japan 1,559.8 1,585.7 +1.7% 2.0% Northern Ireland 1,451.2 1,157.1 -20.3% 1.5% Other EU 4,596.0 3,912.3 -14.9% 5.0% Other Countries 8,649.0 7,692.7 -11.1% 9.9% Total 79,636.2 77,533.0 -2.6% 100.0%
  • 13. BaNAMArama
    • NAMA is TOSIT
    • Paying €54 billion to buy €77 billion of loans now “worth” €47 billion.
    • A 30% ‘haircut’ on the LTEV (Long Term Economic Value)
    • What do the banks say? Answers from AIB 2009 Annual Report
    • € 23 billion loans to be transferred to NAMA
    • Expected to receive €19 billion for these ‘assets’
    • This an 18% discount on the amount of the loans.

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