From €3 billion to €6 billion
How did we get there?
Where will it get us?
20,00040,00060,00080,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Government Revenue
Government Spending
economic-incentives.blogspot...
2030405060
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Government Spending
Government Revenue
economic-incentives.bl...
40,00055,00070,00085,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Government Spending
Government Revenue
economic...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Depart...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.bl...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Depart...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
ec...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
ec...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.bl...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Depart...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Nov 2010
GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adju...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incen...
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
GDP Projections Nov 2010 ex...
Dec-09 Nov-10
CURRENT BUDGET
Expenditure
Gross Voted Current Expenditure 55,183 55,000
Non-Voted (Central Fund) Expenditur...
Moving Targets
Sticking to the 10% target it would allow a GGB
of €16.1 billion.
Changing the target to 9.3% means the
all...
From €3 billion to €6 billion
€1 billion as a result of changes to nominal GDP
– CSO revisions of GDP figures (€0.4 billio...
2030405060
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average
Ireland
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual ...
2030405060
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average, %GDP
Ireland, %GNI
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
...
2030405060
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average
Ireland
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual gover...
2030405060
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average, %GDP
Ireland, %GNI
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
...
From €3 billion to €6 billion
From €3 billion to €6 billion
From €3 billion to €6 billion
From €3 billion to €6 billion
From €3 billion to €6 billion
From €3 billion to €6 billion
From €3 billion to €6 billion
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From €3 billion to €6 billion

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From €3 billion to €6 billion

  1. 1. From €3 billion to €6 billion How did we get there? Where will it get us?
  2. 2. 20,00040,00060,00080,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Government Revenue Government Spending economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Eurostat Annual tax revenue and government expenditure Government Accounts
  3. 3. 2030405060 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Government Spending Government Revenue economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance Annual government revenue and expenditure, %GDP Government Accounts
  4. 4. 40,00055,00070,00085,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Government Spending Government Revenue economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance Annual government revenue and expenditure, €millions Government Accounts
  5. 5. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Dec 2009 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  6. 6. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Dec 2009 GDP Projections Nov 2010 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  7. 7. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Dec 2009 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  8. 8. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Dec 2009 GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision' economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  9. 9. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Dec 2009 GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision' economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  10. 10. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Dec 2009 GDP Projections Nov 2010 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009 GDP Projections Nov 2010 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  11. 11. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Nov 2010 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  12. 12. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Nov 2010 GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adjustment economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  13. 13. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009 GDP Projections Nov 2010 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  14. 14. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision' GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adjustment economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office GDP at current market prices projected to 2014 GDP Projections
  15. 15. Dec-09 Nov-10 CURRENT BUDGET Expenditure Gross Voted Current Expenditure 55,183 55,000 Non-Voted (Central Fund) Expenditure 8,335 7,500 Gross Current Expenditure 63,518 62,500 less Expenditure Receipts and Balances 13,829 12,750 Net Current Expenditure 49,689 49,750 Receipts Tax Revenue 32,800 31,750 Non-Tax Revenue 1,093 1,750 Net Current Revenue 33,893 33,500 Less Adjustment 2,000 2,000 CURRENT BUDGET BALANCE -13,797 -14,250 CAPITAL BUDGET Expenditure Gross Voted Capital 5,500 5,500 Non-Voted Expenditure 824 1,150 Gross Capital Expenditure 6,324 6,650 less Capital Receipts 476 250 Net Capital Expenditure 5,848 6,400 Capital Resources 1,629 1,500 CAPITAL BUDGET BALANCE -4,218 -4,900 EXCHEQUER BALANCE -18,015 -19,150
  16. 16. Moving Targets Sticking to the 10% target it would allow a GGB of €16.1 billion. Changing the target to 9.3% means the allowable (in the sense of the target) GGB can be of the order of €15 billion. Moving the goalposts sees another €1 billion added to the planned adjustment.
  17. 17. From €3 billion to €6 billion €1 billion as a result of changes to nominal GDP – CSO revisions of GDP figures (€0.4 billion) – Drag of increased adjustment (€0.3 billion) – Reduced inflation expectations (€0.2 billion) €1 billion due to continued deterioration of the public finances €1 billion due to reducing the GGB target from 10% to 9.3%. €0 billion due to reduced growth forecasts.
  18. 18. 2030405060 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 EU Average Ireland economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Eurostat Annual government revenue, %GDP Government Accounts
  19. 19. 2030405060 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 EU Average, %GDP Ireland, %GNI economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Eurostat Annual government revenue Government Accounts
  20. 20. 2030405060 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 EU Average Ireland economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Eurostat Annual government expenditure, %GDP Government Accounts
  21. 21. 2030405060 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 EU Average, %GDP Ireland, %GNI economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Eurostat Annual government expenditure Government Accounts
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