Business Planning in 2009 The Macroeconomic Environment Seamus Coffey, Dept of Economics, UCC
 
Are we all out of luck?
Then and Now <ul><li>Unemployment Rate (March):  1984: 15.2% 2009: 11.0% </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation (March Annual Rate): ...
The Unemployment Rate
Inflation
Per Capita GDP
Government Balance
The Public Finances
The God That Failed
Tax Revenue  (€000s) Tax Revenue has dropped 30% in just  two  years. 2007 2008 2009 E Value Added Tax Income Tax Excise S...
Expenditure  (€000s) Even with the announced expenditure “cuts” we are still spending more than we did two years ago. Furt...
 
Closing the Gap More Taxes Less Spending Or just hope for the best!
Market Response – Worry!
Household Response – Save!
International Government Responses – Spend! <ul><li>Millions, Billions and Trillions </li></ul><ul><li>The recent G20 meet...
Me and a Million!
Me and a Trillion!
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Business Planning Seminar

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Business Planning Seminar

  1. 1. Business Planning in 2009 The Macroeconomic Environment Seamus Coffey, Dept of Economics, UCC
  2. 3. Are we all out of luck?
  3. 4. Then and Now <ul><li>Unemployment Rate (March): 1984: 15.2% 2009: 11.0% </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation (March Annual Rate): 1984: 10.1% 2009: – 2.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Interest Rate: 1984: 12.00% (Central Bank Rediscount Rate) 2009: 1.25% (ECB Main Refinancing Rate) </li></ul><ul><li>Exchequer Balance (%GDP): </li></ul><ul><li>1984: 10.50% 2009: 10.75% </li></ul>
  4. 5. The Unemployment Rate
  5. 6. Inflation
  6. 7. Per Capita GDP
  7. 8. Government Balance
  8. 9. The Public Finances
  9. 10. The God That Failed
  10. 11. Tax Revenue (€000s) Tax Revenue has dropped 30% in just two years. 2007 2008 2009 E Value Added Tax Income Tax Excise Stamps Corporation Tax Capital Gains Tax Customs Training & Employment Levy Unallocated 14,496,588 13,572,410 5,837,878 3,185,602 6,390,625 3,105,495 265,904 2,501 0 13,429,602 13,176,857 5,443,338 1,650,792 5,065,894 1,430,080 248,001 1,032 0 11,420,000 12,475,000 4,634,000 980,000 3,740,000 625,000 230,000 1,000 0 Total 47,249,352 40,777,196 34,400,000
  11. 12. Expenditure (€000s) Even with the announced expenditure “cuts” we are still spending more than we did two years ago. Further labour market deterioration is likely to increase social welfare spending (and reduce tax revenue) Vote or Group of Votes 2007 2008 2009E Health & Children 12,448,835 13,745,317 13,426,037 Social & Family Affairs 8,180,934 9,399,098 10,915,679 Education & Science 8,443,974 9,031,516 8,900,030 Other 15,534,992 17,136,863 14,162,658 Total 44,608,735 49,312,794 47,404,404
  12. 14. Closing the Gap More Taxes Less Spending Or just hope for the best!
  13. 15. Market Response – Worry!
  14. 16. Household Response – Save!
  15. 17. International Government Responses – Spend! <ul><li>Millions, Billions and Trillions </li></ul><ul><li>The recent G20 meeting in London formalised a collective “stimulus” package of $5.5 trillion from members. </li></ul><ul><li>The “bailout” of financial markets could run to $3.5 trillion. </li></ul><ul><li>Where will this money come from? </li></ul><ul><li>What will it do? </li></ul><ul><li>Where will it go? </li></ul><ul><li>“ A billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you’re talking about real money!” </li></ul><ul><li>Everett Dirkson, US Senator </li></ul>
  16. 18. Me and a Million!
  17. 19. Me and a Trillion!

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