Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic Projections and Policy Options Emmanuelle Humblet Nosisa Ndaba Carlos Rymer Hydrology Final Presentation August 14, 2008 School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Adaptation Issues in Latin America

Outline Background Climate and Population Projections Hydrological Projections Adaptation Options Policy Framework Conclusion School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic Dominican Republic

Background

Climate and Population Projections

Hydrological Projections

Adaptation Options

Policy Framework

Conclusion

Climate and Land Use The climate is variable across the landscape, with precipitation ranging from 700mm to 2,400mm School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic Land surface highly variable Desert Humid tropical forest Pine forest Cloud forest Agriculture is 10% of land use, while nearly 30% of land surface is protected 75% of the population lives in urban areas

The climate is variable across the landscape, with precipitation ranging from 700mm to 2,400mm

Land surface highly variable

Desert

Humid tropical forest

Pine forest

Cloud forest

Agriculture is 10% of land use, while nearly 30% of land surface is protected

75% of the population lives in urban areas

Economy Fast growth over the last few decades (9.3% average last 3 yrs) GDP at purchasing power parity was $62 billion in 2007 ($7,000 per capita) Yet 36% of population in poverty and unemployment at 14% Economy is largely based on Tourism Agriculture Mining Manufacturing (especially textiles) School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic

Fast growth over the last few decades (9.3% average last 3 yrs)

GDP at purchasing power parity was $62 billion in 2007 ($7,000 per capita)

Yet 36% of population in poverty and unemployment at 14%

Economy is largely based on

Tourism

Agriculture

Mining

Manufacturing (especially textiles)

Climate Change and Population Growth Projections School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic Source : IPCC, 2007 -20% Source : UN Population Division

The Water Balance School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic Sources : INDRHI, US Army Corps of Engineers, and FAO

Hydrological Climate Change Impacts By 2100, IPCC projects: 20% drop in annual precipitation Increase in evapotranspiration of 1mm per day Increase in sea level by 18 to 59cm School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic This will result in: Drop in annual precipitation from 69 cubic kilometers to 55 cubic kilometers Increase in evapotranspiration from 48 to 50 cubic kilometers Groundwater loss due to saltwater intrusion

By 2100, IPCC projects:

20% drop in annual precipitation

Increase in evapotranspiration of 1mm per day

Increase in sea level by 18 to 59cm

This will result in:

Drop in annual precipitation from 69 cubic kilometers to 55 cubic kilometers

Increase in evapotranspiration from 48 to 50 cubic kilometers

Groundwater loss due to saltwater intrusion

Declining Water Availability School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic 4,700 360 Water Scarcity Threshold

Impacts Already Happening School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic Source : Listin Diario (August 12, 2008)

Need To Adapt Impacted Sectors: Agriculture Urban Areas Power Production School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic Tourism Industry Ecosystems Adaptation Options: Conservation Agriculture Drip-water Irrigation Drought-resistant Crops Desalinization Treated Sewage Application Increased Efficiency Greywater Recycling Reforestation Collaborative Management

Impacted Sectors:

Agriculture

Urban Areas

Power Production

Tourism

Industry

Ecosystems

Adaptation Options:

Conservation Agriculture

Drip-water Irrigation

Drought-resistant Crops

Desalinization

Treated Sewage Application

Increased Efficiency

Greywater Recycling

Reforestation

Collaborative Management

Policy Framework School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic Stakeholders Agriculture, Urban Populations, Power Producers, Tourism, Industry, Ecosystems National Institute of Hydraulic Resources Concerns Assistance and Requirements Legal Framework That Includes: Adaptation Measures Mandate for Freshwater Assessment Agency Authority to Implement Law State Secretariat on Agriculture National Institute on Potable Water and Sewer State Secretariat on Environment and Natural Resources

Legal Framework That Includes:

Adaptation Measures

Mandate for Freshwater Assessment

Agency Authority to Implement Law

Conclusions Freshwater availability is projected to decline by approximately 85% by 2100 due to climate change and population growth. The country will have to consider adaptation strategies to sustain socioeconomic growth even as water shortages become a serious issue. New policy is necessary that is in line with a broader climate change adaptation strategy and prioritizes collaborative freshwater management. School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic

Freshwater availability is projected to decline by approximately 85% by 2100 due to climate change and population growth.

The country will have to consider adaptation strategies to sustain socioeconomic growth even as water shortages become a serious issue.

New policy is necessary that is in line with a broader climate change adaptation strategy and prioritizes collaborative freshwater management.

Questions? School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic