Farewell to Nova Scotia . . . or not! Migration Fact and Fiction Ryan MacNeil

Place Becomes Unattractive 1. Major company or industry is hurt or exits 2. Economic recession hurts business 3. Unemployment climbs 4. Infrastructure breaks down 5. City budget deficit increases Outward Migration of People Tourism, Convention Business Fall Off Outward Migration of Business Banks Tighten Credit, Bankruptcies increase, Crime Increases, Social Needs Rise, City Image Deteriorates Government Raises Taxes Kotler, Haider & Rein (1993)

PEOPLE LEFT NOVA SCOTIA FROM JANUARY TO MARCH THIS YEAR 4,760

PEOPLE MOVED TO ALBERTA FROM JANUARY TO MARCH THIS YEAR 27,963

Movers are young, single, and rural.

Nova Scotia Youth Populations 1980-2003 Nova Scotia Youth Populations 1980-2003 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 15-19 years 20-24 years 25-29 years 1980 2003

Migration is over-hyped and full of myths and misconceptions .

Myth #1 People migrate to the wealthiest urban areas.

People migrate to

the wealthiest

urban areas.

Myth #1 Migration is customarily conceptualized as a product of the material forces at work in our society… (Fielding, 1992, p 201).

Myth #1 culture society personal biographies interpersonal ties

Myth #2 Wealthier communities have lower out-migration rates than poorer ones.

Wealthier communities have lower out-migration rates than poorer ones.

Myth #2 People leave all different types of communities, the challenge is low in-migration

People leave all different types of communities, the challenge is

low in-migration

Myth #2 “ What distinguishes Newfoundland is not that Newfoundlanders choose to leave their home province at a greater rate than people in other provinces, but rather that other Canadians choose to move to Newfoundland at a lower rate than they do any other province .” (House, White and Ripley, 1990, 12)

Myth #3 Economically weak regions have high out-migration.

Economically weak regions have high out-migration.

Myth #3 Economically weak regions have a more prevalent sense of belonging, this reduces out-migration rates.

Economically weak regions have a more prevalent sense of belonging, this reduces out-migration rates.

Myth #3 Ontario Jan-Mar 2006 In 14,026 Out 19,067 Net – 5,041

Ontario Jan-Mar 2006

In 14,026

Out 19,067

Net – 5,041

Myth #4 Youth migration is a big driver of population change.

Youth migration is a big driver of population change.

Myth #4 Population change today is being driven by aging baby-boomers and low birth rates.

Population change today is being driven by aging baby-boomers and low birth rates.

Myth #5 Immigration will solve our population challenge.

Immigration will solve our population challenge.

Myth #5 59% of in-migrants to NS were immigrants in 2002-2003, but the net effect of immigration was felt entirely in HRM.

59% of in-migrants to NS were immigrants in 2002-2003, but the net effect of immigration was felt entirely in HRM.

What, then, distinguishes successful regions from unsuccessful ones? MIGRATION TURNOVER

Migration Strategies Job creation & entrepreneurship Skills training & education Colchester Cares Kits Place aux Jeunes in rural Halifax New Brunswick Repatriation

Job creation & entrepreneurship

Skills training & education

Colchester Cares Kits

Place aux Jeunes in rural Halifax

New Brunswick Repatriation

Communities can reverse the spiral by choosing a new direction and working together to achieve it.

Farewell to Nova Scotia . . . or not! Migration Fact and Fiction Ryan MacNeil