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  • 1. Attribution Analysis Data Driven Model SMX 2014 Yehoshaphat Schellekens
  • 2. Click stream of conversions among different segments Where to credit the sale??? 2
  • 3. Introduction Why Attribution? • “I only advertise on search, why do I need to investigate attribution?” • “What are the actionable insights you can do with attribution analysis?” • “what does an attribution analysis/model look like?” • “I’m not a mathematical person, how can I still use attribution?“ (Visualization) • “In which cases could attribution save me money?” 3
  • 4. Possible Segments For Attribution Possible for SEM, SEO & content but also for: • In-channel SEM: Brand vs. non-brand • Day of week segments (people search on weekends and buy during the beginning of the week) • Different type of Keywords (Some keywords tend to lead to others) • Different devices (if possible) 4
  • 5. Attribution for Re-pricing Segments Sales (Using attribution Model) Sales (Using Last click) 23.0 % Brand 32% 45% 23.0 % Brand Non Brand SEO 38% 39% Non Brand SEO • In most cases: • ~ 5%-15% difference in attributed sales compared to last click sales • More granularity = more attribution 5
  • 6. Media Re-pricing • Conventional wisdom: Non Brand drives brand Attributed CPS: lower than last click CPS • But not always Cost Per Sale Google Brand Google syndication Brand MSN Brand MSN syndication Brand 6
  • 7. Re-pricing – Tier 2 publishers • Tier 2 publishers typically have more attribution with Google/Bing/Yahoo • Example : 180 160 140 120 Could be up to 50% difference! 100 Sale Count Last click model 80 Attribution results 60 40 20 0 Ozone Media Quantcast Casale Media Accordant Media 7
  • 8. Visualization: click count vs. CR Conversion Rate Click Count Highest difference in Conversion Rate -> in Second click 8
  • 9. Visualization: Flow from click 1 to click 2. Different segments 9
  • 10. Visualization : Click Path Hour of day Each blue line: full path of a searcher who clicked six times In this account, searchers who started in the same hour kept on searching in that hour 10
  • 11. Researchers VS. Transactional • Some segments are In a state of purchasing while others are conduction research • Find segments that click differently! Dark bars: faster deciders 11
  • 12. Conclusions • Evaluate as many segments as possible • Important Visualization: – Click count vs. sale count & click count vs. CR (sales/clicks) – Sankey plot (flow of clicks) • Try to detect: – Searchers who need further information – Searchers who want to get the product now. • Tracking: – Important to have tracking system, for visitors & all click to sale data, such as: • • DSMM/ DS3/ other click tracking platforms Save money, mainly in the following cases: – +10%/-10% of performance change, will make a big difference. – Large proportion of Tier 2 publishers. 12