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Media Landscape

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  • 2001-2009 фактические данные 2010 оценка
  • 2001-2009 фактические данные 20 10 оценка
  • Для тв газет журналов радио интернет из M’Index объединение частот ( каждый день – раз в месяц и реже ) . Для кино ответ да для посещения кинотеатров (за последние 6 месяцев).
  • Terrestrial TV - c умма всех каналов кроме VIDEO и Satellite + Cable в немапированной базе. Non-terrestrial TV - Satellite + Cable в немапированной базе. VIDEO - из немапированной базы. Радио – потребление посчитано не в минутах в день, т.к. В Радио Индексе менялась метода сбора, цифры несравнимы. Газеты, Журналы, Радио – оцифровка категорийной переменной M’Index , параметры – 24 ; 1 2 ; 4 ; 2.5 ; 1.25 Billboards – только Espar ID’s существовавшие постоянно в мае 2007, 2008, 2009 Cinema – оцифровка категорийной переменной M’Index , параметры – 3; 1; 0.4; 0.2222; 0.11111
  • Радио (национальные коммерческие ролики event status:real ) – по прайс-листам и реальным размещениям на крупнейших станциях, аудитория привязана из Радио Индекса. Применена средняя скидка – 30%. Города 100+ TV(национальные ролики и спонсорские ролики в коммерческих с спонсорских блоках) – по CPP через Акаровский объем Gross . Universe – города 100+. OOH – средняя по всем измеряемым билбордам 3Х6 Magazines ( allocation : central, журналы, коммерческая реклама, основные страницы издания, big, цветные, event status:real ) – по всем журналам, имеющим одинаковые названия в мониторинге и NRS. Средняя скидка – 30%. Ukraine – 2008 data
  • В немапированной базе считаетс эфир и не эфир (не эфир - это кабель+спутник , Эфир всё остальное). В мапированной базе счтиаются все национальные каналы. Из эфира вычитаем национальные получаем локальные.
  • В немапированной базе считаетс эфир и не эфир (не эфир - это кабель+спутник , Эфир всё остальное). В мапированной базе счтиаются все национальные каналы. Из эфира вычитаем национальные получаем локальные.
  • Daily reach – Qual.Reach 15 min +
  • По смотрению
  • 2001-2008 фактические данные 2009 оценка
  • Падение: исключать видое
  • Spots & Sposor’s spot
  • 2001-2009 фактические данные 20 10 оценка
  • Sold-out%= 100%- Unsold% 100% это всё кроме социалки Unsold: Advertiser: empty OR Al2: Advertising and Marketing services
  • 2001-2009 фактические данные 20 10 оценка
  • По Cover
  • Allocation: central Исключая selfadvertising
  • Исключяя Selfadvertising
  • Исключяя Selfadvertising
  • 2001-2008 фактические данные 2009 оценка
  • Исключая Selfadvertising
  • Исключая Selfadvertising
  • 2001-2009 фактические данные 20 10 оценка
  • 7.5 mln – number of inet users in the region 34% - percent of inet users in comparison with the total population of the region
  • Monthly reach по России на этом слайде отличатеся от цифры на 9ом слайде потому что: 1. ранызне исследования 2. разные целевые аудитории
  • 2001-2009 фактические данные

Media Landscape Media Landscape Presentation Transcript

  • Total media market trends 2009-2010
  • Media market In 2009 ATL media market** dropped by 28%. In 2010 4%-13% growth is forecasted. 59% 29% 26% 26% 27% 26% 17% Source: AKAR, PGM estimation -28% *February 2010 estimation 13% 4% **For Internet only display advertising is included (not context advertising) 2009: RUR 193 bn. $ 6.1 bn. €4.4 bn.
  • Media market segments share dynamics Pessimistic forecast* Source: AKAR, PGM estimation * February 2010 estimation ** Since 2007 non-terrestrial TV was included in TV ***For Internet only display advertising is included (not context advertising)
  • Media penetration TV has the highest penetration – 94% Source: TNS Russia Research : M’Index ( 200 9 ) Geography : Russia Cities 100+ TA : P 16+ Time : 05:00 – 29:00
  • Media usage trends 2009Q4/2008Q4 Internet usage doubled Terrestrial TV, Non-terrestrial TV and Cinema grew by 5-13% Radio, OOH and Print usage fell by 7-13% Source: TNS Russia, ESPAR-Analyst, PGM Media Logics estimations Research : M'Index, TV Index, ESPAR ( 2007Q4, 2008Q4, 2009Q4) Geography : Russia, 100K+ TA : P16 +
  • Media Usage 2010/2009 Forecast Source : Media Logics estimates MEDIA TREND COMMENTS Internet + 70.. 100% Faster and faster usage growth observed firstly thanks to faster and faster Internet connection Non-Terrestrial TV +10.. 15% Usage growth is slowing down as penetration is already great and can’t grow fast further Cinema +5.. 10% Cinema visiting positive trend is gradually recovering after 2009 crisis fall Terrestrial TV 0.. +5% Potential further growth of unemployment could result in growth of home spending what could increase TV viewing OOH 0.. -5% Potential further growth of unemployment could result in fall of OOH spending what could decrease OOH audience Print -5.. -10% Further pressure from growing Internet usage could lead further fall of « off-line » reading Radio -5.. -10% Further pressure from growing on-line listening could lead fall of « off-line » listening
  • Media cost per thousand TV CPT is still below European average, while Magazines and Radio are already very close Cost per Thousand comparison (USD), Adults Source: PGM Global Database. 2006 MEDIA LOGICS est. (for Russia), 2009 Geography (Russia): Cities 100+ TA (Russia): P16+   Format Russia UK Germany Italy Czech Rep Poland Ukraine TV (national) 30” 3.7 10.8 13.6 6.3 8.0 1.5 1. 8 Magazines (national) 1/1 4C 8.9 9.3 12.9 4.6 35.1 5.1 11 .0 Radio (national) 30” 1.9 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.3 0.2 4 . 8 OOH 6x3 0.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.0
  • Russian TV 2009
  • Role of TV in Russians life TV is the most common time spending with almost 4 hours a day. TV viewing level is 5% above European average. Source: TNS Russia, RTL Group Research : M’Index (2009) Radio Index (2009) TV Index (2009) TV International Key Facts (2004) Time: 05:00 – 29:00
  • Key TV viewing peculiarities daily dynamics is “8 hours work day” model: weekends daily viewing is higher: peak in Winter, fall in Summer: females and elders are the heaviest viewers
  • Shares of National Local Non Terrestrial TV The most part – 88% of TV viewing belongs to national channels . During past 4 years share of Cable and Satellite TV was growing and now it is 6.7% while share of local channels was reducing . Source: TNS Russia Research : TV Index (2005-2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + Time: 05:00 – 29:00 TA: 18+
  • Russians do have a broad choice There are now 20 national channels and hundreds of locals in Russia Number of large channels is above Europe average Source: TNS Russia, RTL Group Research : TV Est. survey (2009) TV International Key Facts (2004) National channels available: Despite of its size Russia has more big channels than European countries on average 12 of these channels cover > 70% of adults
  • Source: TNS Russia Research : TV Index (2008,2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + Time: 05:00 – 29:00 TA: 18+ 50% of audience Channels share 2009 +/- 2009 vs. 2008, % TV Channels Ranking Half of audience 18+ is occupied by TOP3 channels. The leader’s “Pervy Kanal” (“First Channel” – rus.) share is 19%
  • TV Channels Gender Segmentation The biggest channels are Elder-Female oriented. There are possibilities to reach Youth and Men, but they are limited Elder-Women Elder-Men Young-Women Young-Men Source: TNS Russia, Research : TV Index (2009) Geography : Russia, 100K+ TA : P04 + Size of bubbles ~ channel daily reach size, Axes-cross correspond to total population’s % of females and ave. age
  • Allow to place ads: Ad is Forbidden: … and hundreds of locals.. Commercial channels 19 of 20 national channels and all locals with sum 98% sell their air-time It means that almost all TV viewing could be used for commercial campaigns Source: TNS Russia Research : TV Index (2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + Time: 05:00 – 29:00 TA: 18+ 98% of viewing 2% of viewing
  • +1,4% National TV Sales Houses Video International and Gazprom-Media together have 95.1% of TV viewing. It’s a duopoly. Since 2008 MTV and TV-3 joined VI. Since April 2008 7TV joined VI. VI Other 64.8% 31.6% 3.6% 2008 Share,% Source: TNS Russia Research : TV Index (2008,2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + Time: 05:00 – 29:00 TA: 18+ VI Gazprom-Media Other 62.2% 33.0 4.9% 2009 Share,% 2009 VS 2008 -2.6% +1,2% Gazprom-Media
  • Program Ad Channels promo Programs occupy only 85% of commercial channels broadcast The rest time is for ad and channel promo in 4:1 proportion Source: TNS Russia Research : TV Index (2009) Geography : Moscow Time: 05:00 – 29:00 Channels promo – 3% Programs 85 % of broadcast Commercials – 12%
  • Ave. viewed ad time: 17.7 min a day Ad viewed volume and structure Average viewer is exposed to 17.7 minutes of national ad a day Different FMCG are the most advertised categories Source: TNS Russia, PGM Experts Research : TV Index (2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + Time: 05:00 – 29:00 TA: 18+
  • TV ad market growth is ahead of total media market TV share constantly grew, it means that TV spends grew faster than others. In 2009 TV market volume was $3.6 bn. = 58% of media market. Ruble inflation forecast on national channels for 2010 is 0%...+10%.
    • TV 2009:
    • RUR 113.7 bn.
    • 2.6 bn. $3.6 bn.
    93% 32% 29% 34% 30% 32% 23% -18% Source: AKAR, PGM estimation *February 2010 estimation 10% 0%
  • Decreasing of national ad viewed stopped Source: TNS Russia Research : TV Index (2001-2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + Time: 05:00 – 29:00 TA: 18+ Negative tendency in 2006-2008 took place… Because of new Ad Law limits: TV viewing was falling till Mar 2008; currently it’s growing: Since July’06: 20% an hour, 15% of broadcast Since Jan’08: 15% an hour
  • How much money to support a brand? Different brands need different support level Just to imagine avg. spends level: 1900 GRPs 30” costs ~ $ 4M (2009) Source: TNS Russia, AKAR Research : TV Index (2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + Time: 05:00 – 29:00 TA: 18+ Ave annual spends per brand: ~ 9.5 min. ad to everybody or 1900 GRPs 30” ~ RUR 127M, $ 4M, € 2.9M Spends vary greatly from brand to brand: Danone, Schwarzkopf, MTS, L'Oreal Paris, Megafon, etc. 40 000 GRPs 30” <100 GRPs 30” (small and one-day brands) ave. 1900 GRPs 30” per brand
  • Top 20 Categories (GRPs 30” 18+) Medicines & Food Supplements, Mass Actions, Financial Services and Retail showed significant growth. HH Appliances, Cars & Accessories, IT hardware on the contrary fell noticeably. Source: TNS Russia Research : AdFact (2008,2009) TV Index (2008,2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + TA : P18+
  • Top 20 Advertisers (GRPs 30” 18+) P&G, Coca-Cola, Bee Line and Colgate-Palmolive reduced 30’’GRPs18+ volumes. L’Oreal, Nestle, Kraft Foods, Pepsi Co, M.Video showed more than 40% growth. Source: TNS Russia Research : AdFact (2008,2009) TV Index (2008,2009) Geography : Russia , 100 K + TA : P18+
  • Ratio of National and Local TV markets Share of local inventory is growing due to growth of local inventory at national channels Source: TNS Russia Research : AdFact (2004- 2009) TV Index (2004- 2009) Geography : TOP cities TA : P18+
  • Top 20 regional Advertisers (GRPs30” 18+) There were many new participants in Top 20 in 2009. MTS, Ferrero and Hartog Holdings SA increased their regional volumes significantly. Wimm-Bill-Dann could go up from the 4th to the 3rd position. L'Oreal on the contrary change the 3rd to the 8th position. Source: TNS Russia Research : AdFact (2008,2009) TV Index (2008,2009) Geography : TOP Cities TA : P18+
  • Non-TV media OOH
  • Outdoor growth rate Outdoor decreased by 40% in 2009, which is greater than the total market (-28%). Its share in the total market volume decreased. Ruble inflation forecast for 2010 is +5%...+10%.
    • Outdoor 2009:
    • RUR 27.3 bn.
    • 0.6 bn. $0.86 bn.
    56% 30% 26% 25% 29% 22% 13% -40% Source: AKAR, PGM estimation *February 2010 estimation 15% 5%
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (Jan’04-Dec’09 ) Geography: TOP Cities OOH market development For the past 5 years # of sites grew by 2% in Moscow and by 58% in regions. In regions growth has stopped and # of surfaces even fell a bit. Since Dec’2007 about 10% of Moscow sites were taken down, mainly in the centre. In December 2009 # of Moscow sites was 6.5% less than in December 2007. Under the circumstances of low demand suppliers stopped placing new surfaces and in some cased even remove existing ones in order to reduce expenses and put demand and supply to the same level.
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (Jan’06-Dec’09 ) Geography: TOP Cities Sold-out dynamics In 2Q 2009 sold-out difference between Moscow and other cities started reducing. 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • Top OOH Formats 3x6 Billboards and their subtype 3x6 Trivisions are the most common format – 68% of total surfaces. Small formats Light Boxes, Lamppost Signs, Pillars, Bus Shelters account for 23%. Light Boxes, Pillars, Lamppost Signs and Painted Walls fell greater than market. Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (Dec 2008, 2009 ) Geography: 50 TOP Cities
  • TOP 20 OOH Categories Two of three leaders of 2008 (Cars and Telecommunications) reduced their shares. Mass actions on the contrary increased its share and occupied the 3rd position. Well growth of Tourism, Sport & Leisure was observed. Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (2008,2009 ) Geography: 50 TOP Cities
  • TOP 20 OOH Advertisers 3 top positions are occupied by cellular operators. Two of them (Bee Line and Megafon) reduced their shares in 2009. Samsung reduced its share significantly and went down from the 3rd to 8th position. LG on the contrary moved from the 30th to 6th place. Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (2008,2009 ) Geography: 50 TOP Cities
  • Non-TV media Print
  • Print growth rate Print dropped by 43% in 2009, which is greater than the total market (-28%). It’s share in the total market volume decreased. Ruble inflation forecast for 2010 is 0%...+10%.
    • Print 2009:
    • RUR 32. 6 bn.
    • 0.7 bn. $1.0 3 bn.
    33% 21% 20% 14% 1 3% 16% 1 1 % -43% Source: AKAR, PGM estimation *February 2010 estimation 10% 5%
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: NRS (May-Oct ’09 ) Geography: Russia 100+ TA: P16+ Print genres coverage Newspapers is TOP genre in terms of coverage with 73%. Next is TV-Guides and Entertainment with 54.2% and 53.2% respectively.
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: NRS (May-Oct’09 ) Geography: Russia 100+ TA: 16+ TOP Russian Newspapers The most popular Russian title is TV-guide Antenna/Telesem
  • TOP Russian Magazines Two first positions are occupied by the most popular female magazine “Cosmopolitan” and by auto edition “Za Rulem”. Source : TNS Russia Research: NRS (May-Oct’09 ) Geography: Russia 100+ TA: 16+
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: NRS (May-Oct ’09 ) Geography: Russia 100+ TA: P16+ TOP20 titles audience geography Titles audience geographical distribution varies greatly E.g., share of Moscow and St. Petersburg is in the range from 17% to 66%
  • TOP Publishing Houses (central editions) Market is not very fragmented: 64% to TOP 10 suppliers. First is Independent Media with 14%. Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (2008,2009 ) Geography: Moscow, Saint-Petersburg
  • TOP 20 Print Categories Tobacco showed the largest growth in 1-3Q 2009. Real Estate on the contrary saw their shares reduced significantly. Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (2008,2009 ) Geography: Moscow, Saint-Petersburg
  • TOP 20 Print Advertisers Only 4 from top 20 advertisers reduced their shares. 3 of them are car producers. Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (2008,2009 ) Geography: Moscow, Saint-Petersburg
  • Non-TV media Radio
  • Radio growth rate Radio decreased by 36% in 2008. It’s share in the total market volume was stable till 2007, but both in 2008 and 2009 it dropped. Ruble inflation forecast for 2010 is 0%...+5%.
    • Radio 2009:
    • RUR 9 bn.
    • 0.2 bn. $0.28 bn.
    52% 30% 26% 18% 47%** 19% ** Changed method - a lot of regional markets added in 2006 -36% -6% Source: AKAR, PGM estimation *February 2010 estimation 0% +5%
  • Top 10 stations Leaders are Russkoe Radio and Europe + Source : TNS Russia Research: Radio Index (3Q 2009 ) Geography: Russia 100K+ TA: 12 + Time: 05:00 – 29:00
  • TOP 20 Radio Categories Medicines & Food Supplements and Cars are leaders with noticeable advantage. Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (2008,2009 ) Geography: Moscow, Saint-Petersburg
  • TOP 20 Radio Advertisers Two Materia Medica reduced its share noticeably but could keep the 1st position. Incredible growth of Toyota allowed it to occupy the 2nd position. All cars producers increased their shares. Source : TNS Russia Research: AdFact (2008,2009 ) Geography: Moscow, Saint-Petersburg
  • Non-TV media Internet
  • Internet Market** Growth Rate Internet spends grew much faster than total media. In 2009 it increased by 4%(while market dropped by 28%). Ruble inflation forecast for 2010 is +5%...+15%.
    • Internet 2009:
    • RUR 7.7 bill.
    • 0.17 bill. $0.24 bill.
    67% 70% 71% 97% 4% 32% Source: AKAR, PGM estimation *February 2010 estimation 23% 13% **Only display advertising is included (not context advertising)
  • Number of internet users by regions Far-Eastern FD 1.9 mln 37% of population Siberian FD 5.1 mln 32% of population Ural FD 3.5 mln 36% of population Volga FD 7.7 mln 31% of population North-West FD 5.4 mln 48% of population Central FD (w/o Moscow) 7.5 mln 34% of population Southern FD 5.3 mln 30% of population Moscow 5.5 mln 61% of population www.fom.ru Autumn 2009
  • Internet Monthly Reach Internet reach growth is very stable. For Russian cities 100+ monthly reach for last 2 years grew by 33%. Since December 2005 this indicator has grown by 85% in Moscow. Currently Internet monthly reach is 51% for Russia 100+, 64% for Moscow, 61% for Saint-Petersburg, 60% for Ekaterinburg . Source : TNS Russia Research: Est. Survey for WebIndex (Dec’05-Dec’09) TA: 12+ Monthly Reach, % of All 12+
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: Est. survey for Web Index (2008,2009 ) Geography: Russia Cities 100+ TA: 12+ Internet connection type Broadband connection is replacing dial-up. Currently more than three-quarters of Russian Internet visitors use broadband channel. Most of its growth comes from increasing of home broadband connection.
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: Est. survey for Web Index (2008,2009 ) Geography: Russia Cities 100+ TA: 12+ Mobile Internet Currently 13% of people 12+ use Mobile Internet (on-line surfing through their mobile phones). And its penetration is growing.
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: M’Index (2009 ) Geography: Russia Cities 100+ TA: 18+ Internet usage vs. other media Internet time spending took the 3rd place after TV and Radio. Right chart shows the situation of close to 100% internet penetration.
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: M’Index (2009 ) Geography: Russia Cities 100+ TA: 16+ Internet users profile Typical heavy internet user is a man, 16-34 years old, rich and higher-educated
  • Source: TNS Russia Research: M’Index (2008, 2009) Geography: Russia Cities 100+ TA: 16+, Internet users Most used Internet services The most popular web-services are search of information and E-mail. growth leader is communication. Listening to radio by Internet grew noticeably.
  • Source : TNS Russia Research: Web Index (4Q’08,4Q’09) Geography: Russia Cities 100+ TA: 12-54 TOP Russian web-sites Yandex.ru and mail.ru are outstanding leaders. Then two social networks and rambler.ru. Vkontakte.ru increased its monthly reach more significantly than odnoklassniki.ru. 4Q 2009 growth leader from top 10 is rian.ru. NA
  • Non-TV media Cinema
  • Cinema Market Volume Change Cinema spends fell by 29% in 2009 to 0.5 bill. rubles.
    • Cinema 2009:
    • RUR 0.5 bill.
    • 11.3 mill. $15.7 mill.
    25% Source: AKAR 40% -29%
  • Cinema goers (Russia) More and more people visit cinemas. Cinema visiting frequency was stable during last 3 years. An average cinemagoer visits cinema 0.8 times a month Source : TNS Russia Research: M’Index ( 200 3/1-2009/2 ) Geography: Russia, cities 100+ TA: 16+ *People visiting cinemas more than once in 6 months
  • Top 20 movies in Nov-Dec’09 Source : www.film.ru