Identifying cogs in the adoption wheel: opportunities to target extension

Identifying cogs in the adoption wheel - opportunities to target extension Rick Llewellyn CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems Adelaide, SA

Initially decision makers do not know everything that matters
Hiebert
Adoption as a learning process Learning of relative advantage An economic basis

Targeting information and extension
Many projects have aims of extensive adoption and impact
Most projects don’t have close personal contact with all potential adopters
Many projects involve practices that aren’t ‘new’
Many projects have information and learning as their primary tool

Key Points
Understanding adoption decisions so that you can see where you can make a difference
You can identify and quantify the key (non) adoption drivers
You can identify where information and learning can be most effective
You can target extension and consider information effectiveness

Identifying common drivers

Steps to more effective targeting of information
Explore factors that may influence the relative value of the innovation for individual growers on their farm
Collect quantitative data from a representative sample of growers, including perceptions
Identify inconsistencies, high uncertainties and likely misperceptions
Conduct analyses to identify variables that have the biggest influence on the likelihood of adoption
Identify what influential variables can be influenced by learning (if any) and targeted R, D and/or E

Adoption of no-till and conservation farming practices
Public good aim of reduced soil erosion
Still the focus of major public investment

Adoption of no-till cropping practices % farmers using some no-till GRDC, SANTFA, DAFF (2008)

Factors influencing no-till adoption 82% of decisions correctly predicted (logit and duration analysis) Source: D’ Emden et al. 2007 (SA, Vic, NSW, WA 2003)
Location (region/state) and average rainfall
Perceived soil moisture conserving benefits and improved seeding timeliness
Relative price of glyphosate herbicide
Prior year much drier than average
Higher education
Perceived relative effectiveness of pre-emergent weed control
Higher participation in extension activities
Use of directly paid consultant
Years since first awareness of nearby no-till adopter

No-till adoption strategies
WHAT TO TARGET:
Early-season weed control
Water use efficiency benefits
Benefits of ability to seed on time
WHAT NOT TO TARGET:
Ability of no-till to reduce erosion
2005

Where to now? % farmers using some no-till Llewellyn & D’Emden and 2008

Extent of no-till use
% using no-till % users using all NT
Year 03 08 13* 08
Vic Mallee 40 68 88 44
WA Northern 84 92 96 64
SA Western EP 48 55 73 30
Adoption AND probably extent of use will have lower peak in some districts
Some disadoption (5% disadopted; 10% reduced area)
Still some opportunities to target some information
But most farmers now have some on-farm experience
Only 20% of non-adopters use a paid cropping adviser
Options for lower-cost ‘farm-specific’ information e.g. local clusters with shared agronomy consultant?

Location, location, location Walker et al. 2005. Distance from trial (km) Willingness to pay ($) The value placed on trial report information by WA growers

FARMER GROUPS

Considering learning and information quality Relative Advantage -> Prob. Actual Average Advantage of Practice Actual Variance Of Practice Grower perception of practice

Considering information quality Perception of trial results when considering own farm Perception of trial results when considering own farm Relative Advantage -> Prob. Observed trial

Factors associated with adoption of multiple integrated weed management practices 86% of decisions correctly predicted (logit)
Perception of higher ryegrass control (efficacy)
Perception of higher economic value of practices in farming system
Perception of a longer time until effective new herbicide
Level of uncertainty of when a new herbicide will become available
Higher use of information/extension
Higher education
Higher proportion of the farm cropped
Lower discount rate for future returns
The resistance status of the farm

0 20 40 60 80 100 Efficacy (% weed reduction) Probability Perceived efficacy of weed seed capture

0 20 40 60 80 100 Probability Perceived efficacy of weed seed capture Efficacy (% weed reduction) Non-adopters Adopters

Factors associated with first use of durum wheat in WA 84% of decisions correctly predicted (logit) Source: Nguyen et al. 2007 Past durum growing was not a significant predictor of future durum growing
Larger farm size
Involvement in cropping extension events
Perception of higher rust resistance of durum
Higher expected durum: bread wheat yield ratio

Recognising information and learning costs
“ .. a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention and a need to allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance of information sources that might consume it"
Herbert Simon

Recognising the appeal of ‘convenience agriculture’
Less managers per hectare ; More management demands
‘ Attention’ is scarce and valuable
The challenge for ‘inconvenient’ agricultural & NRM practices

The future of Mixed-Farming Agriculture A livestock management service for time pressured farmers

KEY MESSAGES
It is possible to:
Predict a high proportion of adoption decisions for a particular practice
Identify the common factors driving adoption decisions for a particular practice – including perceptions
Target R,D & E towards factors that are influential and can be influenced to improve decision making
Identify where further information is unlikely to have any impact on the adoption decision
Consider information quality and effectiveness
Novel ways to address ‘attention’ scarcity

Acknowledgements: GRDC, SANTFA, DAFF, Mallee Sustainable Farming Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Western Australia CRC Australian Weed Management CRC Future Farm Industries Frank D’Emden, Michael Burton, Bob Lindner, David Pannell, Steve Powles, Sally Marsh, Amir Abadi, Tracey Gianatti, Bob McCown, Peter Carberry, Shahajahan Miyan, Ellen Walker, Van Nguyen, Thank You

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Identifying cogs in the adoption wheel: opportunities to target extension

by Dave Pannell on Nov 13, 2008

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Identifying cogs in the adoption wheel: opportunities to target extension — Presentation Transcript